Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on Friday due to a stronger US dollar, but concerns over short-term supply and ongoing inventory drawdowns limited the losses [1][3] - As of June 6, LME three-month copper closed at $9,693 per ton, down $46.50 or 0.48% [2][3] - LME copper inventory decreased by 5,600 tons or 4.06%, reaching a one-year low of 132,400 tons [3] Group 2 - The US labor market showed better-than-expected job growth in May, with 139,000 new jobs added, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [3] - The US Department of Labor revised down employment data for March and April, which offset the positive outlook for May [3] - The market is awaiting results from an investigation into copper imports by Washington, which may lead to tariffs on copper imports [3] Group 3 - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.5% increase in copper inventory this week after a period of low levels last month [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $27.50 or 1.11%, closing at $2,450.50 per ton [5] - Following President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, the aluminum premium in the US market surged to a record high of $1,378 per ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) shares soared 5.3% in the last trading session to close at $7.56. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 17.2% loss over the past four weeks.CLF's shares rallied as steel stocks climbed, triggered by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he plans to double tariffs on steel imports to 50% in a move to protect American jobs and lead more companies to source from domestic steelmakers.This mining ...

英镑兑美元短线波动不大，现报1.3525。英国首相斯塔默称，致力于将美国对英国钢铁的关税降至零。 以色列最近在加沙的行动令人发指且并无成效。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on domestic demand-oriented stocks, banks, IT services, and financials [21][68]. Core Insights - Japanese equities are supported by upward revisions to the global economic outlook following the US-China trade agreement, easing appreciation pressures on the yen due to changes in monetary policy expectations from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [7][9]. - A recovery in the domestic economy has been delayed by elevated inflation, but the yen's rebound and declining fuel prices are expected to gradually ease inflation and support domestic demand-oriented stocks [7][9]. - The report estimates a 4-6% negative impact on corporate earnings from US tariffs, but corporate forecasts remain resilient, particularly among domestic demand-oriented companies [10][69]. - Ultra-long interest rates have reached record highs, reflecting deteriorating supply-demand conditions and concerns about potential consumption tax cuts after the Upper House election [11][24]. - The decoupling of the equities market and the bond market is expected to continue, with historical trends indicating that bank and real estate sector stocks may outperform during rising interest rate cycles [12][25]. - Corporate reforms are progressing more quickly than anticipated, with significant share buybacks and restructuring efforts, particularly noted in the NTT group [14][70]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The global economic growth expectations have been revised upward, positively impacting Japanese equities, which are closely correlated with the global economic cycle [9]. - The domestic economic recovery is anticipated to improve, supported by a rebound in consumer spending despite current inflationary pressures [21]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the market has already priced in tariff cuts, particularly in the auto sector, and further upside will require new catalysts [10][69]. - Corporate earnings guidance for FY2025 indicates a flat sales outlook with a net profit decline of 5.8%, but domestic demand-related sectors are expected to perform better [68]. Interest Rates - The report notes that ultra-long interest rates have risen sharply, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching record highs, which has not yet been fully priced into the equity markets [11][24]. - Rising interest rates are not viewed as a risk event that would lead to a decline in the stock market, as they are occurring alongside improvements in economic fundamentals [24]. Corporate Reforms - Corporate reforms are highlighted as a key investment theme, with larger-than-expected share buybacks and restructuring efforts indicating strong momentum [14][70]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the outcomes of the Upper House election and potential fiscal policy changes, particularly regarding consumption tax [13][25].

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普50%钢铝关税今日生效 美国劳工局将于非农日更正4月就业报告 美联储博斯蒂克仍认为今年有一次降息 欧洲股指多数收涨，德国DAX30指数收涨0.67%；英国富时100指数收涨0.15%；法国CAC40指数收涨0.34%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨0.38%；西班牙IBEX35 指数收跌0.52%；意大利富时MIB指数收涨0.23%。 传美最新伊核协议提议临时允许伊朗继续铀浓缩活动 5月财新中国制造业PMI录得48.3 白宫称中美领导人本周将举行会谈，外交部回应 商务部回应欧盟拟限制中企参与医疗器械公共采购 国内油价上调，加满一箱油将多花2.5元 市场盘点 周二，在特朗普催促各贸易伙伴"交方案"之际，美元指数从六周低点反弹，最终收涨0.58%，报99.267。由于数据显示美国就业市场良好，美债收益率V型反 转，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.47%，2年期美债收益率收报3.963%。 受美元走高的拖累，现货黄金从早些时候触及的5月8日以来最高点回落，在美国4月份职 ...

特朗普签署公告，将钢铁和铝关税提高25%，至50%。 ...

英镑兑美元跌0.23%，英国商业大臣Jonathan Reynolds将与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔会面，试图挽救 一项取消对英国钢铁出口关税的协议。该协议正面临无法落实的风险，美国将钢铝进口关税提高至50% 的措施定于周三生效。如果英美两国无法达成一项解决方案，那么两国上个月宣布的所谓经济繁荣协议 就有可能无法实现其关键组成部分之一。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和英国首相基尔·斯塔默将该协议作为 一项降低关税的贸易协议来宣传，但到目前为止，该协议尚未落实。 ...

美联储理事沃勒表示，即使新关税可能暂时推升价格压力，今年仍有降息可能；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯 比指出，未来12-18个月利率有下降空间。 【黄金技术分析】 摘要周二（6月3日）本交易日，国际黄金价格震荡偏弱。今日将出炉美国4月工厂订单月率和美国4月 JOLTs职位空缺数据，投资者需要重点关注，另外继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势相关消息。 周二（6月3日）本交易日，国际黄金价格震荡偏弱。今日将出炉美国4月工厂订单月率和美国4月JOLTs 职位空缺数据，投资者需要重点关注，另外继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势相关消息。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普在上周末指责亚洲大国违反初步关税协议，并宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%上调至50%。 美国政府还要求各国在7月8日前提交最佳贸易提案，显示其在关税议题上立场愈发强硬。 此外，美联储政策预期也为金价提供重要支撑。尽管美元短线反弹，但市场依然预计美联储将在2025年 内进行至少两次25个基点的降息。多位美联储官员本周言论表明，若通胀回落趋势持续、政策不确定性 解除，则降息时机可能提前。 4小时级别上:均线多头排列，布林带开口张大，价格在上轨上方运行，MACD 金叉且多头动能柱放 量 ...

6月3日，白银、SC原油涨超2%，低硫燃料油、黄金、氧化铝、棕榈油、沥青涨超1%；合成橡胶、20号胶、玻璃、焦煤跌超3%，烧碱、菜粕、多晶硅、纸 浆、PTA跌超2%，硅铁、对二甲苯、瓶片、苯乙烯、工业硅、沪锡、沪胶、螺纹钢、鸡蛋、铁矿石、沪铝、菜油、玉米淀粉、焦炭、锰硅、短纤、豆粕、 热卷跌超1%。 橡胶继续下挫，玻璃焦煤连创新低 截至3日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1340.59点，较前一交易日上涨1.07点，涨幅0.08%；中证商品期货指数收报1856.24点，较前一交易日上涨 1.48点，涨幅0.08%。 避险需求推动贵金属再度走强，地缘局势变化导致油价上涨 端午节后首个交易日，国内商品市场贵金属及原油跟随外盘走高，其中沪银主力合约以2.85%的涨幅领涨，沪金主力合约收涨1.40%；SC原油主力合约涨超 2%。 消息面上，乌克兰方面表示，在乌国家安全局1日发动的特种作战行动中，至少13架俄军战机被摧毁。俄乌第二轮直接谈判结束，但据乌方表示，俄方在会 谈期间拒绝了30天无条件停火的提议。关税方面，美国总统特朗普5月30日说，6月4日起，将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。地缘局 势 ...