1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of this year. The supply side will have greater adjustment flexibility driven by the expansion of terminals in the U.S. Gulf and the increase in OPEC+ production, while propane chemical demand will be negatively impacted by the Sino - U.S. tariff game. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, the FEI - CP central level is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year. The domestic market will be more affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [4][107] 3. Summary by Table of Contents 3.1 1H25 Market Review - In Q1, both domestic and international contracts oscillated within a range. The fundamental contradictions of LPG itself changed relatively little. The rise of LPG was weaker than that of crude oil. In mid - February, the game around the basis of domestic near - month contracts increased significantly. After the oil price dropped, the basis supported the 03 contract and suppressed the long - term sentiment. From March to April, a positive spread trend emerged instead of the reverse spread trend in previous years. In March, due to the reduction of supply caused by increased maintenance of domestic liquefied gas plants and strong chemical demand, the near - month spreads of domestic and international markets showed a positive spread trend [17] - In Q2, the market volatility increased significantly, and the trading logics of domestic and international markets diverged. The change in Sino - U.S. tariff policy was the main factor affecting international prices. After the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on China on April 4, the FEI price dropped sharply in early April. After the unexpected easing of Sino - U.S. tariffs on May 12, the FEI/CP spread strengthened, but the domestic market was suppressed by the weak C4 demand and a large number of warrants and fell smoothly [18] - In June, the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict brought a new round of shocks. The FEI/CP spread soared, and the domestic market's spread continued to weaken [19] 3.2 Supply in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 United States - In the first half of the year, the U.S. C3 production increased, with the average net C3 production in Q1 at 265 million barrels per day and further rising to 283 million barrels per day by mid - June. In the second half of the year, only one fractionation unit is planned to be put into operation in Q3, and the marginal increase in production is limited. It is expected that the C3 production will only increase slightly in Q3 and decline marginally in Q4 [26][27] - From January to May, the U.S. LPG export volume increased by 5% year - on - year. The export capacity will expand in the second half of the year, with ETP and Targa's export capacities expected to increase by 3.85 million and 0.6 million tons per year respectively. However, the actual export volume will be affected by factors such as Northeast Asian demand, Sino - U.S. tariff game, and potential substitution demand due to the Middle East conflict. In addition, the hurricane season from June to November may impact the export rhythm [32][35][37] 3.2.2 Middle East - In the first half of the year, the Middle East's LPG export volume increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The supply increment mainly came from countries other than Saudi Arabia. In the second half of the year, the supply increment space is relatively limited. Although there are some planned projects, the actual increment that can be realized this year is likely to be small. If OPEC+ relaxes oil production cuts as planned, the potential export increment in the Middle East is about 150,000 tons per month. However, if the geopolitical conflict persists, the supply may face significant tightening risks [43][44][45] 3.3 Demand in the Second Half of the Year 3.3.1 Combustion Demand - India's LPG demand was strong in the first half of the year, with imports increasing by 5.2% year - on - year from January to May. It is expected that the import and demand growth rates in the second half of the year will be similar to those in the first half, with an annual import growth rate of about 5%. Other Asian regions' combustion demand showed no bright spots in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to Japan's summer inventory - building progress [61][62] 3.3.2 Chemical Demand - In the cracking end, the demand in the first half of the year was weak due to the poor relative economy of LPG. It is expected that the cracking demand in the second half of the year will be weaker than that in the first half, depending on the change in the relative economy of FEI - MOPJ. Regarding the PDH end, although the PDH device profit improved in Q1, it was under pressure in Q2 due to tariff policies. In the second half of the year, the profit repair space is limited, and the operating rate is likely to decline marginally [69][73][74] 3.4 China's LPG Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of the year, the domestic production of LPG decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of domestic gas is expected to increase marginally in the second half of the year, mainly supported by the new CDU units in Zhenhai and Daxie. The domestic demand side is facing pressure, with the combustion demand weakening and the C4 chemical route performing weakly. Overall, if the current Sino - U.S. tariff scenario and geopolitical conflict intensity remain unchanged, the supply - demand balance in China is expected to be looser in the second half of the year [82][84][85] 3.5 Transportation Cost - If the geopolitical conflict remains at the current intensity, the impact on transportation costs in the second half of the year is limited. The freight rate on the U.S. Gulf - Far East route is expected to be relatively strong in the third quarter, mainly supported by factors such as geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and potential congestion in the Panama Canal. However, the freight rate may weaken in the fourth quarter due to the planned launch of new ships [97][98] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - If geopolitical risks do not reach an extreme scenario, the fundamental situation of LPG will loosen marginally in the second half of the year. If the Sino - U.S. tariffs do not ease unexpectedly, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities. The domestic market will be affected by the C4 end and warrant trading, and the PG/SC gas - oil ratio is expected to remain weak [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have led to fluctuating oil prices, while gold prices have remained relatively stable, raising questions about the current state of risk aversion in the market [1][3]. Market Reactions - Gold prices did not react significantly to the Middle East conflict due to several factors: 1) Market expectations have been dulled, with prior conflicts already priced in [3] 2) A stabilizing dollar index has attracted funds back to the U.S., putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [3] 3) Slowing inflows into gold ETFs and high positions held by CTA funds indicate a lack of new buying momentum [3] 4) The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has delayed interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. Institutional Predictions - Major financial institutions have differing views on gold price forecasts: - Bank of America predicts gold could reach $4000 per ounce within the next 12 months, driven by geopolitical risks and fiscal deficits [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has a base case of $3300, with a potential extreme of $4200 by the end of 2025, citing central bank purchases and ETF inflows [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects a price of $6000 by early 2029, contingent on a collapse of dollar credit [5]. - Citigroup is the most pessimistic, suggesting prices could fall below $3000 in the next year due to economic recovery [5]. Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Institutions predicting an increase in gold prices cite several supporting factors: 1) High fiscal deficits in the U.S. are expected to weaken dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [5]. 2) Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policies may exacerbate risks to dollar credibility and economic downturns [5]. 3) Continued central bank purchases of gold, with China increasing its reserves for seven consecutive months [5]. 4) Persistent geopolitical risks are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding gold prices, with some institutions like Citigroup arguing that U.S. economic recovery will diminish gold's attractiveness, while others emphasize recession risks as supportive for gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against equity market risks, with recommendations suggesting a long-term holding strategy not exceeding 15% of total portfolio allocation [8].

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 26 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 主 要 品主力合约涨跌幅 比率 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 4%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 940 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 719/吨，较上个交易日 +1 元/吨。基本面来看，近期焦煤上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，受安全环保 检查的影响，焦煤减产的数据减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力 的缓解来说表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，但钢厂自用 情况下，焦炭生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低位，房地产 仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格阴跌后，市场情绪受蒙煤消息刺激， 目前盘面上行主要系供应端减量逻辑，但供应端减量不及需求走弱幅度，基本面 宽松，技术上关注 820 元/吨阻力位置，后续关注逢高空机会。 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面低开后震荡下跌，收盘跌幅-2.43%。国际方面，最新 气象模型显示，本周美国衣阿华、明尼苏达和威 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, multiple factors for gold are intertwined, leading to an oscillating trend. In the medium - to long - term, the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Get Stronger, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" is maintained [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Key Information - On June 25, NATO leaders at the summit in The Hague passed a statement supporting an increase in the defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035 [2] - US President Trump stated during the NATO summit in The Hague that although the actual damage to Iranian nuclear facilities from the US - Israel joint air strikes was unclear, the cease - fire agreement marked a "victory for everyone" [2] - Fed Chairman Powell told members of Congress on Tuesday that tariff hikes this summer might start to push up inflation, which would be a crucial period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts [2] Price Logic - The recent gold price is affected by multiple factors. The easing of the Middle East tension weakens gold's safe - haven appeal, while the weakening dollar and Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the price. Market sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement [3] - Investors are waiting for the release of key US macroeconomic data (PCE) this week to find new trading directions. Powell's hawkish remarks briefly boosted the dollar and suppressed gold [3] - There are three contradictions for gold: the Fed's prudent monetary policy attitude, the better - than - expected US economic data earlier this week echoing the Fed's statement of a robust economy, and the recurring geopolitical risks [3] Mid - year Report View - The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. In terms of trading drivers, focus on the Fed's first interest rate cut this year, the credit evolution under the promotion of fiscal bills, and the possibility of repeated trade frictions. The upper limit for gold price this year is expected to be $3900 - 4000, and for silver, it is $39 - 40 [6] Outlook - The weekly range for COMEX gold is [3200, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [32, 35] [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold exhibited a volatile pattern with an intraday range of approximately 251 points, facing resistance near the H1 trend line before retreating to a low of 3312 and then rebounding, closing as a small shadow candlestick [1] - The market is currently experiencing a dual challenge with geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand potentially driving gold prices higher, while the Federal Reserve's high interest rate expectations exert downward pressure [1] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3360-3363, with a short-term pullback pressure noted after breaking above the H1 trend line [1] Group 2: Euro Market Analysis - The Euro continued its bullish trend, breaking previous highs to around 1.1665, closing with a bullish candlestick, driven by optimistic economic outlooks in Europe and a weaker dollar [7] - Resistance levels for the Euro are set at 1.175 and 1.180, while support levels are at 1.157 and 1.162, with a strategy to buy on dips around 1.164-1.165 [9] Group 3: GBP/USD Market Analysis - The British Pound extended its gains to 1.3671, closing with a bullish candlestick, influenced by weak labor market signals and easing Middle East tensions, despite expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England [12] - Key resistance levels for GBP/USD are at 1.376 and 1.381, with support at 1.358 and 1.363, recommending a buy on dips around 1.364-1.365 [14] Group 4: GBP/JPY Market Analysis - GBP/JPY broke the H1 trend line, reaching a new high of 198.6, closing with a bullish candlestick, with a pullback observed to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [16] - Resistance levels are identified at 199.5 and 198.6, with support at 197.0 and 196.2, suggesting a buy on dips around 197.6-197.3 [18]

黄金方面：最近一段时间黄金价格波动主要受中东地缘局势的影响，而随着伊以双方达成停火协议，市场对地缘风险外溢的定价被逐步消除，市 场将关注的焦点重新回到美联储的货币政策。 美联储主席鲍威尔近期连续两天公开讲话中仍然强调了在复杂的经济环境中保持审慎的立场，打压美联储提前降息的预期，金价仍有压力。 地缘摩擦方面，伊以达成停火协议将挤压原油的风险溢价。同时美国方面有可能放松对伊朗的制裁，不仅供给中断风险得到解除，还将有更多的 伊朗石油流向市场。 供需方面看，短期来看，欧佩克+短期产量偏紧，依旧维持在减产配额框架内。但是长期而言，欧佩克+巨大的闲置产能将令油价承压；需求端 看，美国旅游旺季即将来临，叠加中美经济数据依旧坚挺，暗示短期原油需求并不过分悲观。 技术面：日线上，近期行情大幅下跌，测试65美元一线支撑。若企稳，则行情存在进一步走高的机会，否则行情再度陷入55-65美元区间宽幅震荡 的概率较大。日内关注上方65.72美元一线压力，下方关注63美元一线支撑。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情收小阳线，显示此前的下行行情有望企稳。指标上看，行情处于20日和62日均线下方运行，短期偏弱势。日 内关注上方3357美元一线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the international crude oil market is basically eliminated, and the oil price has given back all the geopolitical premium. The PX price has returned to near the pre - rally level. PX has a tight - balance expectation due to some upcoming device maintenance, and its bottom support is relatively stable. PTA is facing new device commissioning in the third quarter, resulting in a mismatch with PX. PTA inventory's absolute value is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is hard to change. The polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.85%; Brent crude oil was $67.68 per barrel, up 0.80%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $579.25 per ton, down 1.19%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $726 per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,790 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,780 yuan per ton, down 1.12%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 5,050 yuan per ton, down 0.94% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,758 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,752 yuan per ton, down 1.69%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 7,218 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,954 yuan per ton, down 1.39%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,060 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,935 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [2] 3.2 Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 234 yuan per ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the basis was 258 yuan per ton, a decrease of 61 yuan. The PXN spread was $269.75 per ton, down 0.98%; the PX - MX spread was $123 per ton, down 5.51% [1] 3.3 Operating Rate Information - On June 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 82.7%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 78.56%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 90.01%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Production and Sales Information - The sales rate of polyester filament was 22%, down 4 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 55%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 46%, up 11 percentage points [1] 3.5 Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] 3.6 Trading Strategy - PTA started to correct, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,790 yuan per ton (- 0.91%), and the intraday trading volume was 902,000 lots. PX was greatly affected by crude oil and followed the decline, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,736 yuan per ton (- 0.24%), and the intraday trading volume was 225,200 lots. PR followed the cost operation, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,960 yuan per ton (- 1.29%), and the intraday trading volume was 46,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a rebound on June 25, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with WTI crude rising by $0.55 to $64.92 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $0.54 to $67.68 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 797,000-barrel decline [1][2] - Gasoline and distillate inventories also saw declines of 2.1 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively, both below the five-year average by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries increased by 125,000 barrels to 17 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 94.7%, up from 93.2% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply rose by 389,000 barrels to 9.688 million barrels, marking the highest level since December 2021, indicating a significant rebound in fuel demand due to summer travel [1] - The daily net crude oil imports increased by 531,000 barrels to 1.674 million barrels [1] Group 3 - The Cushing region's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 500,000 barrels to 22.2 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 237,000 barrels to 40.2 million barrels [2] - U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels to 13.435 million barrels [2] - Analysts noted that the decline in inventories across major refined products could shift market focus back to U.S. supply and demand dynamics rather than Middle Eastern tensions [2] Group 4 - Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, supply-demand conditions remain high, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical factors [2] - Analysts suggest that oil prices have returned to key levels prior to the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential for a return to economic fundamentals if geopolitical risks diminish [2][3] - Short-term momentum for oil prices has weakened, with the possibility of continued low-level fluctuations before a significant rebound occurs [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through resistance levels and reaching a year-to-date high, supported by increased trading volume of 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 188.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4][20]. - The bond market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, influenced by the performance of the stock market, which may continue to suppress bond market performance if it remains strong [4][16]. - The US stock market is anticipated to challenge new highs as speculative sentiment returns, with reduced risks from rising oil prices and US Treasury yields [5][27]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as military, securities, internet finance, and insurance have shown strong performance, while oil and gas, pesticides, and film sectors have lagged [20][21]. - The commodity market has seen a decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.5%, with energy sectors leading the downturn, while non-ferrous and ferrous metals recorded gains [6][35]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Developments - Domestic policies emphasize expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption to promote high-quality economic development, as highlighted by the Vice Premier's recent remarks [7][41]. - Internationally, the EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US, indicating ongoing trade tensions [7][42].