Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.

Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for March 2025 is reported at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The new orders index rose to 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved demand[12] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.3%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point rise, while the construction PMI reached 53.4%, the highest since June of the previous year[9] Group 2: Economic Trends and Challenges - Despite the positive PMI trends, the overall economic recovery remains weak, with manufacturing PMI still below seasonal averages[2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing passive destocking, with finished goods inventory index dropping to 48.0%, indicating a supply-demand gap[4] - Price indices for both factory and raw material purchases fell by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, suggesting ongoing price pressures on profitability[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors are showing significant recovery, with PMIs of 52.3% and 52.0%, respectively[4] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saw a notable rebound in PMI, with small enterprises reaching 49.6%, the highest level since June of the previous year[4] - The construction sector is facing challenges due to funding pressures and low new order indices, which fell to 43.5%[9]

Report Date - The report is dated April 2, 2025 [1][5][10] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The market is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, economic data, and geopolitical tensions [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The Shanghai gold futures contract 2504 closed at 736.30 yuan, up 0.89% [2][5] - **Silver**: Declined due to the impact of non - ferrous metals. The Shanghai silver futures contract 2504 closed at 8412 yuan, down 0.84% [2][5] Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, waiting for the US to impose tariffs. The Shanghai copper futures contract closed at 80,430 yuan, up 0.60% [2][10] - **Aluminum**: Traded in a high - level range. The Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,525 yuan [2][13] - **Alumina**: Prices are under pressure. The Shanghai alumina futures contract closed at 2951 yuan [2][13] - **Zinc**: Traded under pressure, with attention on tariff disturbances. The Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 23,615 yuan, up 0.68% [2][16] - **Lead**: Weak in the medium - term. The Shanghai lead futures contract closed at 17,410 yuan, down 0.20% [2][19] - **Nickel**: The cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Shanghai nickel futures contract closed at 130,360 yuan [2][22] - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term is dominated by cost logic, while there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term. The Shanghai stainless steel futures contract closed at 13,545 yuan [2][23] - **Tin**: Continued to rise. The Shanghai tin futures contract closed at 287,480 yuan, up 1.82% [2][27] Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The Si2505 contract closed at 9,790 yuan [2][32] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today. The PS2506 contract closed at 43,560 yuan [2][33] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamental weakness remains, and there is a downward drive in the futures market. The 2505 contract closed at 74,360 yuan [2][36] - **Iron Ore**: Traded in a volatile manner. The I2505 contract closed at 792.0 yuan, up 2.46% [2][41] - **Rebar**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The RB2505 contract closed at 3,170 yuan, down 0.09% [2][43] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The HC2505 contract closed at 3,359 yuan, up 0.24% [2][43] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Traded in a wide range due to the resonance of the black metal sector. The silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 5984 yuan [2][48] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Saw a slight rebound due to information disturbances at the ore end. The manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 6146 yuan [2][49] - **Coke**: There is a growing expectation of price increases, and it traded with a bullish bias. The J2505 contract closed at 1648 yuan, up 4.14% [2][52] - **Coking Coal**: Traded with a bullish bias. The JM2505 contract closed at 1008 yuan, up 1.97% [2][52] - **Steam Coal**: High - level inventory is putting pressure on prices. The ZC2504 contract had no trading volume yesterday [2][56] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The FG505 contract closed at 1235 yuan, up 4.04% [2][60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PX主力 contract closed at 6986 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **PTA**: With short - fiber production cuts, go long on PF and short on PTA. The PTA主力 contract closed at 4894 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **MEG**: Supply has contracted, and it has rebounded from the bottom. Go long on MEG and short on PTA. The MEG主力 contract closed at 4515 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of butadiene increased slightly, providing support for the market. [2][30] - **Asphalt**: Stabilized and traded in a range, with attention on inventory and inter - regional price differences. [2][32] - **LLDPE**: Traded in a short - term range, with pressure in the later period. [2][34] - **PP**: The price increased slightly, with average trading volume. [2][36] - **Caustic Soda**: Traded mainly in a range, with attention on export demand. [2][37] - **Log**: Traded in a volatile manner. [2][39] - **Methanol**: Traded under pressure. [2][41] - **Urea**: The near - month contract is strong, while the far - month contract is under pressure. [2][43] - **Styrene**: Stop - loss on short positions. [2][45] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2][46] - **LPG**: Followed the oil price and traded in a narrow range. [2][47] - **PVC**: Traded in a low - level range. [2][50] Agricultural Products - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to rise at night, with short - term strength. [2][52] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rebounded following the crude oil price, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market continued to widen. [2][52] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread, 8 - 10 positive spread, and 10 - 12 negative spread positions. [2][53] - **Short - Fiber**: Maintenance was implemented, and the processing margin expanded. [2][56] - **Bottle Chip**: Traded in a range, with a weak structure. [2][56] - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious inventory pressure for now, and the near - term is strong. [2][57] - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by US biodiesel policies and tariffs, the price of US soybean oil rose. [2][57] - **Soybean Meal**: The rise in US soybean oil stimulated the increase in US soybean prices, and the domestic soybean meal followed the rebound. [2][59] - **Soybean**: Rebounded following the soybean market. [2][59] - **Corn**: Traded in a range. [2][61] - **Sugar**: Traded with a bullish bias. [2][63] - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of macro - events. [2][64] - **Egg**: Traded weakly. [2][66] - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price decline has been realized in advance. [2][67] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. [2][68] Trend Intensity - **Gold**: 0 [8] - **Silver**: - 1 [8] - **Copper**: 0 [12] - **Aluminum**: 0 [15] - **Alumina**: 0 [15] - **Zinc**: - 1 [17] - **Lead**: - 1 [20] - **Nickel**: 0 [26] - **Stainless Steel**: 0 [26] - **Tin**: 1 [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: - 1 [35] - **Polysilicon**: 1 [35] - **Carbonate Lithium**: - 1 [39] - **Iron Ore**: 0 [41] - **Rebar**: 1 [46] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: 1 [46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Coke**: 0 [54] - **Coking Coal**: 0 [54] - **Steam Coal**: 0 [59] - **Glass**: 1 [60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: 1 [66] - **PTA**: 1 [66] - **MEG**: 1 [66]

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend weakly with oscillations today due to factors such as concentrated new - capacity launches, although the base - difference is strong, the macro - policy promotes consumption, and the film season is ongoing [4]. - PP is expected to show an oscillating trend today, with factors like the recovery of downstream demand and potential supply increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, official PMI was 50.2% (up 1.1%), and Caixin PMI was 50.8% (up 0.7%), both in the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The US sanctions on Venezuela reduced crude oil supply and led to price rebounds. New capacity launches are concentrated, the industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and the film season is in progress. The current LLDPE delivery - product spot price is 7870 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Base - difference**: The LLDPE 2505 contract base - difference is 169, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish sign [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (down 3.7), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expected Trend**: The LLDPE main - contract market is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. This week, one unit of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, and one unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is planned for maintenance, with expected supply increase. The industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has recovered. The current PP delivery - product spot price is 7380 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Base - difference**: The PP 2505 contract base - difference is 41, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish sign [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 64.2 tons (down 5.9), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The PP main - contract market is expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recovery in U.S. business activity in March, while highlighting concerns over import tariffs and significant government spending cuts that may impact market sentiment and economic outlook for the remainder of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global survey indicates that the new orders index rose from 51.9 in February to 53.3 in March, while the employment index increased slightly from 49.4 in January to 50.6 [3]. - The composite PMI output index for the U.S. rose from 51.6 in February to 53.5 in March, indicating expansion in the private sector [4]. - The annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy in March was reported at 1.9%, with a quarterly annualized growth rate of only 1.5%, suggesting a slowdown compared to the end of 2024 [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Pricing - The input prices index surged from 58.4 in February to 60.9 in March, marking the highest level since April 2023, driven by tariffs and rising labor costs [5]. - The prices charged index for goods and services increased from 52.3 to 53.6, indicating that manufacturers are passing higher costs onto consumers, although service sector firms face challenges in raising prices due to slowing demand [6]. - The core PCE inflation rate is projected to rise by 2.8% this year, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic PMI data, suggesting a favorable direction for asset allocation while monitoring variables related to US Treasury rates [5][6][9] - It emphasizes the seasonal recovery in February PMI, indicating a need to pay attention to the incremental policies from the upcoming Two Sessions [5][13] - The investment strategy for March includes a focus on key stocks, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technological advancements [5][18] Group 1: Domestic PMI Data and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [8][13] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.4, slightly above market expectations, reflecting a stable recovery in the service sector [8][13] - The report suggests that the recovery in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival resumption of activities and government stimulus measures, with production and new orders showing growth [8][14] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The report notes a general decline in global equity markets during the last week of February, with A-shares experiencing adjustments while US and European markets showed mixed results [7][8] - It highlights a decrease in commodity prices, including oil and metals, alongside a rebound in the US dollar index [7][8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong downstream recovery and competitive cost structures, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemical industries [8][9] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key tasks for the upcoming Two Sessions, with GDP growth targets expected around 5% [18][25] - It mentions the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the expansion of special bonds to support economic growth [18][25] - The report also addresses the impact of external uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policies and their potential effects on China's export outlook [18][19]

4、欧佩克+将按计划于4月增产，到2026年逐步取消每日220万桶减产。受增产消息影响， 美油盘中跌破68美元/桶。 宏观大类资产日报:2025-03-04 一、宏观要点关注 1、2025年全国两会即将启幕。全国政协十四届三次会议将于3月4日下午3时开幕，3月10日 上午闭幕，会期6天。大会主要议程包括：听取和审议全国政协常委会工作报告和提案工作 情况报告；列席十四届全国人大三次会议，听取并讨论政府工作报告以及其他有关报告； 审议通过全国政协十四届三次会议政治决议等。十四届全国人大三次会议将于3月5日开 幕，3月4日12时举行新闻发布会，大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记 者提问。 2、美国总统特朗普表示，4月2日将对进口农产品加征关税，美国农产品将在美国国内销售 。特朗普还宣布，台积电计划在美国进行1000亿美元的投资，大部分投资将在亚利桑那州 进行。特朗普表示，美国将于3月4日对加拿大和墨西哥加征25%的关税，并称与这两个美国 盟友已没有谈判空间。加拿大外交部长回应称，准备对价值1550亿加元的美国商品征收关 税。除此之外，特朗普还表示，美国将从4月2日起采取对等关税，同时将对那些采取货币 ...