2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 6 | | 锌：上方承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收 ...

每经编辑｜杜宇 5月20日早间，多家主要银行下调存款利率后，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）下行。 据中国人民银行网站5月20日消息，5月20日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，1年期和5年期以上LPR双双下降10个基点。1年期LPR降至3%，5年期 以上LPR降至3.5%。 | | | | 中国人民银行 | | 货币政策司 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反 | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | bed | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yields of 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds in China increased. The market responded to the results of the tariff negotiations in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [1][2] - The long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve. The US Treasury yield curve shows a "✓" shape, and the tariff policy and interest rate policy affect each other [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views Q1: How to view the subsequent long - and short - term factors and layout points for bonds? - This week (2025.5.12 - 2025.5.16), the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.416% to 1.445%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.625% to 1.679% [1] - The market's reaction to the tariff negotiation results was basically completed in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [2] Q2: How will the yield of US Treasury bonds change after the release of a series of US data? - This week (0512 - 0516), the long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock (about 4.5%) and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/05/12 to 2025/05/16, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with a net withdrawal of 4751 billion yuan [39] - The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes this week [41][112] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area increased, and steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose [60][62] - The prices of coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil, as well as the vegetable price index and other data showed certain trends [67][70][72] 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 51 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 197.25 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 26.136 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 171.114 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [75] - Eight provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Anhui, Guangxi, and Shandong ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [77] - No local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 1598.944 billion yuan of such bonds have been issued [78] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 50.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 430.667 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.85%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [91] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The local bond issuance plan shows the expected issuance amount and maturity yield changes for different terms [96] 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 125 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 120.549 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.033 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 17.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.311 billion yuan compared with last week [95] - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 25.018 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 7.534 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amounts of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were - 40.655 billion yuan, 15.903 billion yuan, - 3.51 billion yuan, 15.262 billion yuan, and - 4.484 billion yuan respectively [101][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreasing, and enterprise bonds increasing [106] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total credit bond trading volume was 598.559 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [110] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds increased across the board this week, while the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [112][113][114] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all narrowed [116][119][121] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes and enterprise bonds generally narrowed, while the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [126][130][133] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and daily consumption [139] 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - The subject rating of AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the subject rating of Suzhou Shishan Business Innovation Development Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded [143]

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

英国央行利率政策制定者Catherine Mann表示，她投票从支持大幅降息改为按兵不动，因为市场上的剧 烈波动已使借贷成本下降，并为金融条件提供了足够的宽松。在解释近期英国央行会议上其立场波动 时，她指出市场定价的变化、"韧性"的就业数据以及商品通胀的上升。"市场已经给了我75个基点（的 宽松），我只要求了50个基点，"Mann周三上午在接受采访时表示。去年大部分时间里，这位前 花旗 银行经济学家曾被视为英国央行官员中最鹰派的人物。然而，她今年2月突然支持大幅降息50个基点， 令投资者感到意外。随后，她在3月和5月的会议上投票支持维持 利率不变，尽管她的同事在最近一次 会议上投票支持降息25个基点，这一举动再次引起了英国央行观察人士的关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to view interest rates as the primary tool in its policy toolbox, while also acknowledging the potential role of other instruments like targeted loans and balance sheet operations when faced with lower bound constraints [1] Group 1 - Interest rates remain the default policy lever for the ECB [1] - Other tools, such as targeted loans and balance sheet operations, can be effective when interest rates hit their lower limits [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions despite mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][3][5] - Economic data shows a contradiction, with a rise in unemployment to 4.2% and a slight decline in GDP, yet the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains around 50, suggesting stability in the economy [1][3] - Inflation remains a critical factor, with the current inflation rate exceeding 4% and projections indicating it could rise above 6% due to tariffs, leading the Federal Reserve to be more cautious about rate cuts [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain its policy independence and credibility, especially in light of external pressures from political figures, which could undermine its authority if it were to change its decisions based on such pressures [3][5] - The recent fluctuations in the dollar, including a drop from 108 to 99, have raised concerns about capital flight from the U.S. market to emerging markets, which could impact liquidity in the U.S. [5][6] - The decision not to cut rates could have complex implications for global liquidity and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant effects of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments in the first quarter, with stable growth in financial totals and an optimized credit structure [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The PBOC will continue to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, aiming to lower bank funding costs and reduce overall social financing costs [1] - In the first quarter, monetary credit maintained reasonable growth, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirements and open market operations to ensure ample liquidity and support key economic sectors [1][2] Group 2: Loan Rates and Economic Development - In March, new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 50 and 60 basis points year-on-year, creating a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development [2] - The PBOC plans to enhance the implementation of interest rate policies and continue reforms to improve the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), while expanding pilot areas for comprehensive financing cost assessments for enterprises [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The PBOC will leverage monetary credit policy to guide financial institutions in supporting technology finance, green finance, inclusive small and micro enterprises, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] - The scope of re-loans for affordable housing will be broadened to maintain stability in the real estate market [2]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数下降幅度大于预期，表明劳动力市场继续保持平稳，尽管 关税带来的风险正在加大。美国劳工部公布，截至5月3日当周初请失业金人数经季节调整后减少1.3万 人，至22.8万人，而市场预期为23万人。这一下降在一定程度上抵消了纽约州学校春季假期的影响，春 季假期导致申请失业救济的人数达到两个月来的高点。然而，经济学家表示，企业和消费者调查的疲弱 影响到初请失业金、通胀和就业报告等所谓的硬数据只是时间问题。周三，美联储将利率维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区间，政策制定者指出，"失业率和通胀上升的风险已经增加。" 美国初请失业金人数降幅超过预期，但关税影响或即将在数据上体现 ...