来源：金融界AI电报 在美国非农就业报告于今日晚些时候发布前，亚洲货币兑美元在早盘交易中进入盘整。CBA的Carol Kong在研究报告中表示："我们预计非农就业人数低于预期的情况将持续，并令美元承压。"这位经济 学家兼外汇策略师指出，美国劳动力市场的进一步走软，加之通胀压力的缓解，可能会"鼓励"美联储在 今年再降息两次。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Short-term interest rate traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates two to three times this year, which could yield returns for these positions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, traders have been buying positions anticipating a dovish shift from the Fed, although current bets appear conservative ahead of key employment data [1][2]. - The swap market currently estimates a 30% chance of a third 25 basis point rate cut this year, with the likelihood of two cuts before the September meeting nearly fully priced in [2]. - After the release of weaker-than-expected retail sales data, U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in a month, indicating a shift towards a more dovish outlook [3]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - There has been strong demand for bullish options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), particularly for options expiring in March and June 2026, indicating investor expectations for potential rate cuts [10][12]. - The most active strike price in the options market remains at 96.50, with significant open interest in both call and put options, reflecting a growing interest in hedging against rate movements [12]. - Recent trading highlights include structures aimed at achieving up to three rate cuts, with notable activity around the 96.75 strike price [10]. Group 3: Investor Strategy - Investors are seeking long-duration exposure to hedge against a more dovish Fed, but do not expect aggressive rate cuts beyond two to three additional reductions [1][2]. - Barclays strategists noted an increase in interest rate volatility following Warsh's nomination, with investors favoring long bond positions [1].

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday will see the domestic futures market enter a trading halt, while overseas markets will continue to operate, with macro data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations potentially impacting the domestic market post-holiday [1] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant overseas economic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties necessitate careful position management and risk hedging [1] - Key macro data to watch includes the U.S. retail sales data on February 17, preliminary PMI values for Europe and the U.S. on February 20, and the U.S. Q4 GDP data also on February 20 [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments since February, primarily due to a significant drop in precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets, leading to a general downward pressure on non-ferrous metals ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - If military actions are taken by the U.S. against Iran, it could escalate conflicts in the Middle East, potentially disrupting aluminum supply, as the Gulf region accounts for about 8% of global electrolytic aluminum production [2] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic for non-ferrous metals, driven by continued Fed rate cuts and global fiscal expansion, which are expected to support manufacturing and increase demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metals are currently in a volatile phase, with prices having declined significantly but showing some stabilization; the market sentiment remains bullish on gold in the medium term [4] - The CFTC's net long positions in silver have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been largely released, while gold may have formed a temporary bottom [4] - Analysts recommend holding positions in gold during the holiday to minimize trading costs, while silver and platinum may require lighter positions or options for risk hedging due to their higher volatility [4] Group 4: Crude Oil - The crude oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which will dictate price movements; a breakdown in talks could lead to significant price increases [6] - Current oil prices already reflect some geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate further, prices may enter a recovery phase [6] - Analysts suggest maintaining caution in trading strategies, utilizing options or spread trading to manage price volatility during the holiday period [6]

隔夜美股市场表现强劲，道指续创盘中历史新高，最高至50471.58点[1]。明星科技股多数上扬，奈飞涨 超3%，迪士尼涨近3%，甲骨文、赛富时涨超2%，微软、台积电涨近2%，特斯拉涨超1%[2]。 同时，纳斯达克中国金龙指数表现活跃，收盘上涨0.88%，成分股中复朗集团涨27.27%，亿咖通科技涨 10.71%，海天网络涨10.42%，1药网涨9.44%，新氧涨9.09%[3]。盘前交易时段，该指数曾涨超1%，叮 咚买菜一度大涨16.97%[4]。 大宗商品方面，贵金属价格日内大幅波动。现货黄金突破5050美元/盎司，日内涨0.53%[5]；纽约期金 突破5070美元/盎司，日内涨0.78%[6]。 现货白银与纽约期银则先扬后抑，现货白银曾突破81美元/盎司，日内涨0.43%，随后失守80美元/盎 司，日内跌3.98%[7][8]；纽约期银同样突破81美元/盎司后回落，失守80美元/盎司，日内跌2.86%[9] [10]。 国内白银期货市场同步调整，白银连续主力合约日内跌2%，现报20142.00元[11]。 外汇市场上，美元兑日元跌幅扩大，最新报154.20，下跌1.07%[12]。 二、宏观经济与市场分析 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, market expectations for monetary easing initially surged, but the sentiment has shifted towards a more cautious outlook, with traders now betting on only two to three rate cuts by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Traders are forming a consensus that if the Federal Reserve only cuts rates two to three times this year, their positions will be profitable [1]. - There is a demand for "hawkish options" linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which indicates expectations for two or three 25 basis point cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1][5]. - The options market has seen increased activity, particularly ahead of the critical January non-farm payroll report, which is expected to reveal a weakening or stagnating U.S. labor market [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The swap market pricing indicates a 30% probability of a third 25 basis point cut this year, with two cuts nearly fully priced in by the September meeting [2][5]. - Recent weak retail sales data has further strengthened the market's shift towards dovish expectations [2][5]. - U.S. Treasury prices rose on the back of retail data, leading to the lowest yields in a month [3][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - Market speculation suggested that Warsh would likely follow Trump's calls for rate cuts upon taking over from Powell, but persistent high inflation and some hawkish Federal Reserve policymakers may prevent aggressive rate cuts [3][6]. - If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will officially take over the Federal Reserve before the June policy meeting [3][6].

2026.02. 11 本文字数：2288，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二走势分化。道指小幅收高并再创历史新高，而标普500指数与纳指则回落，标普通信服 务板块表现最弱，成为当日主要拖累之一。投资者一边消化最新企业财报，一边评估疲软的零售销售 数据，为本周即将密集公布的一系列宏观经济指标提前定调。 多位经济学家表示，尽管股市上涨可能通过财富效应提振需求，但依赖温和工资增长的低收入家庭， 其消费韧性明显不足。家庭对生活成本居高不下的不满情绪，以及对就业前景的担忧，仍在制约消费 意愿。 热门股表现 大型科技股多数下跌。特斯拉上涨1.89%；谷歌下跌1.77%，Meta下跌0.96%，亚马逊跌 0.84%，英伟达下跌0.79%，苹果下跌0.34%，微软跌0.08%。甲骨文上涨2.11%，博通跌 1.02%，美光科技下跌2.67%，英特尔大跌6.19%，成为科技板块中表现最弱的个股之一。 谷歌母公司Alphabet宣布发行规模达200亿美元的债券，这一消息加剧了投资者对大型科技公司资 本支出规模的疑虑。亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta与微软正竞相争夺人工智能主导地位，预计到2026 年 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月11日｜周三亚洲股市有望再创新高，昨晚疲软的零售销售数据增强了美联储今年降息的理 由，推动美债价格爬升。悉尼和香港的股指期货预示将进一步上涨，东京股市因节假日休市。货币市场 目前认为美联储今年降息三次的概率略有增加，其中两次降息已完全定价。美国12月零售销售意外停 滞，表明随着去年接近尾声，消费者为经济提供的动力减弱。交易员目前正严阵以待周三发布的美国关 键就业报告。eToro的Bret Kenwell认为，这份零售销售报告"虽不是灾难"，但也并非建设性信号，尤其 是考虑到劳动力市场的持续担忧以及多个资产类别的持续波动。就业报告"将是关键"，疲软的数据可能 会推动情绪进一步转向避险；但如果数据强劲，可能会缓解其中部分忧虑。 ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周二表示，在对经济活动持"谨慎乐观"看法的背景下，美联储今年没有迫切需 要调整利率政策立场。鉴于可能的前景，"在利率目标区间的设定上，我们可能会维持不变相当一段时 间"。她表示，"我认为我们处于一个良好的位置，可以将联邦基金利率维持在当前水平，观察形势如何 发展"，货币政策最有可能接近既不抑制也不刺激经济活动的立场。"与其试图对利率进行精细调整，我 更倾向于在评估近期降息影响、并观察经济表现的过程中保持耐心。"哈马克指出经济前景依然向好， 但同时强调通胀仍然"过高"，并表示在今年通胀可能停留在3%左右的风险下，价格压力回落至关重 要。在招聘方面，相关信息显示当前状况相对稳定。 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 273.89 points, or 0.55%, closing at 50,409.76 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 26.55 points, or 0.11%, to 23,212.12 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 2.10 points, or 0.03%, to 6,966.92 points [3][9] - The Dow reached an intraday all-time high of 50,512.79 points [10] Consumer Spending and Economic Data - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, indicating more cautious consumer spending at year-end [5][12] - Retail sales remained flat after a 0.6% increase in November, with eight out of thirteen retail categories experiencing declines, including clothing and furniture stores [11][12] - Despite expectations that tax refunds will support demand early in the year, households remain dissatisfied with high living costs and ongoing concerns about the job market [12] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Strategists from State Street anticipate the possibility of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a potential 10% decline in the dollar [4][11] - The market expects the Fed to resume rate cuts around June, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points each by year-end [11] - There is speculation that the next Fed chair may face pressure for more significant rate cuts than the market currently anticipates [11] Technology Sector Insights - Analysts suggest that software stocks may rebound from historical declines, as the market's perception of the short-term disruptive impact of artificial intelligence is deemed unrealistic [10] - A report led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas indicates that extreme price movements may lead to a rotation of funds back into high-quality software stocks resistant to AI disruption [10]

来源：环球市场播报 随着延迟的1月份就业报告和CPI数据将于本周公布，市场关注其对降息的影响；CME集团（CME） FedWatch工具显示，在疲弱的劳动力市场信号下，2026年已定价两次降息。 ...