Core Viewpoint - The issuance of actively managed equity funds is experiencing a rebound, driven by the recovery of the A-share market and improved fund performance, with significant fundraising activities observed recently [1][2]. Fund Issuance and Performance - As of September 2, 26 actively managed equity funds have confirmed their issuance periods, with the招商均衡优选混合基金 exceeding its fundraising cap of 50 billion yuan on its first day of issuance [2][4]. - The招商均衡优选混合基金 aims for excess returns through a balanced approach across market, industry, style, and individual stocks, managed by 吴潇, who has over 8 years of experience [2][3]. - The overall issuance scale of actively managed equity funds this year has reached 785.28 billion yuan, with 29 funds exceeding 10 billion yuan in issuance [5]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The A-share market has shown positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 33.4% since the second half of the year [5][6]. - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for equity markets, with expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a stable U.S.-China relationship contributing to a positive outlook [6][7]. - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as AI technology, retail, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on technology sectors like semiconductors and computing [7].

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent surge in gold and silver prices is the strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased demand for these non-yielding precious metals [3][5] - Gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in over four months, while silver has risen above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by concerns over central bank policies and economic indicators suggesting a slowdown [1][3] - Central banks globally, particularly in countries like China, Poland, Turkey, and India, have been significantly increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a long-term strategy of "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risk hedging [7] Group 2 - The actual interest rates, which are the nominal rates minus inflation expectations, have been declining rapidly, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a notable increase in holdings in silver-backed ETFs, driven by a weaker dollar and the dual nature of silver as both a precious and industrial metal [9] - The current bullish sentiment in the precious metals market suggests that if the Federal Reserve officially begins its rate-cutting cycle and central bank purchases of gold continue, both gold and silver could reach new highs [9]

Macroeconomic Summary - The US July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - The core PCE for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly higher than the previous 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - Durable goods orders in July fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%, while core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - New home sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% increase and previous 4.1% increase, totaling 652,000 units, which was better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37% over the week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with Energy leading at 2.46% and Utilities lagging at -2.10% [2][3] Investment Direction - The Q2 GDP revision in the US showed stronger-than-expected growth driven by business investment, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could catalyze a recovery trade [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with a probability of 86.6% for cuts starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4]

在过去 24 小时内，狗狗币价格虽波动较大，但当日收盘仍上涨 1%，报 0.213 美元。伴随市场活跃度提升，狗狗币未来走势引发广泛猜测，其交易量显著 增长 21%，反映出当前市场参与度较高，投资者正重点关注狗狗币 ETF 潜在获批、美联储预期降息等宏观经济因素，这些均可能对后续价格产生关键影 响。 市场活动概览 狗狗币正略高于 0.214 美元盘整，该价位是 0.5 斐波那契回撤位与上升趋势线的双重关键支撑，堪称价格 "成败区"。 若多头守住 0.214 美元，或获上涨动力；一旦跌破，恐触发更深回调。当前 Stoch RSI 指标在中间区域重置，暗示市场多空皆有机会，后续更大波动将由 多空主导权决定，交易员正紧盯该区域走势。 反弹目标可能为 0.278 美元，跌破风险为 0.197 美元 要是多头能守住 0.214 美元，狗狗币或许能反弹到 0.278 美元。 但 0.278 美元是卖家可能发力的 "中心供应区"，要是能突破这，就能确认买家强势，给市 场添动力。 不过也有风险：要是守不住 0.214 美元、价格跌穿了，下一个支撑位是 0.197 美元（叫 "黄金口袋"）；要是连这也跌破，看涨预期就没了，价格 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have gained significant attention, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,539.88, and closing at $3,533.40, reflecting an increase of over 1% [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen by 34.5%, outperforming most other assets [1] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to poor U.S. economic performance, trade tensions, and global risk factors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising from 48.0 to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [2] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its decline is impacting employment, investment, and consumption [2] - High tariff policies are identified as a major factor, with average tariff levels reaching a century high, increasing costs for imported components and disrupting production plans for various sectors [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's policy is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with a potential 25 basis point rate cut anticipated on September 17, totaling around 57 basis points for the year [4] - Non-farm payroll data will be a critical reference point, as weak data could elevate rate cut expectations [4] - Manufacturing data shows new orders rising to 51.4, but the production index has dropped to 47.8, indicating ongoing employment pressures and supply chain bottlenecks [4] Group 4 - The gold market is entering a seasonally active period, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings rising to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, and silver prices reaching a 14-year high [6] - Despite a slightly stronger dollar, the overall trend remains weak, supporting gold prices [6] - Global factors, including European inflation nearing central bank targets, political instability in Japan, and fiscal issues in the UK, alongside U.S. economic slowdown and inflation pressures, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the issuance of actively managed equity funds is recovering, driven by the rebound in the A-share market and improved fund performance, with a notable increase in the number and scale of new products [1][2] - On September 2, the招商均衡优选混合基金 (Zhaoshang Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund) set a fundraising cap of 5 billion yuan, and its first-day fundraising exceeded this limit, leading to an early closure of the fundraising period [2][3] - The fund aims for excess returns through a balanced approach across market, industry, style, and individual stocks, managed by Wu Xiao, who has over 8 years of experience [2][3] Group 2 - The active equity fund issuance has reached a record high this year, with the招商均衡优选混合基金 potentially becoming the largest actively managed equity fund launched this year if it reaches the 50 billion yuan cap [4] - As of September 2, the total issuance scale of active equity funds this year has reached 78.528 billion yuan, with 29 funds exceeding 1 billion yuan in scale [5] - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12% in the second half of the year, contributing to the increased interest in actively managed equity products [4][5] Group 3 - The overall macro environment remains favorable for the equity market, with expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a recovering economic cycle [7][8] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as AI technology, retail, non-bank financials, and innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in semiconductor and computing fields [8] - The market is experiencing a liquidity-driven rally, with a notable increase in trading volumes and investor confidence in Chinese assets [7][8]

Group 1 - The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose from 48.0 in July to 48.7 in August, but still below the market expectation of 49.0, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction [1] - The New Orders Index increased from 47.1 to 51.4, while the Production Orders Index significantly dropped from 51.4 to 47.8 [1] - US construction spending in July decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline, which has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the upcoming US employment report, which may further influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [4] - A recent court ruling stated that former President Trump lacked the authority to implement most of his tariff policies, potentially affecting nearly 70% of US imports if upheld [4] - If the ruling stands, only 16% of imports would incur tariffs, leading to lower than expected federal revenue and potentially widening the fiscal deficit [4] Group 3 - The US yield curve has steepened, with short-term rates reflecting rate cut expectations while long-term rates have risen due to concerns over increasing fiscal deficits [6] - Major US stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.55%, the Nasdaq down 0.82%, and the S&P 500 down 0.69%, while Nvidia and Tesla saw declines of 1.95% and 1.35% respectively [6] - Chinese stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.52%, driven by significant gains in companies like Baozun and NIO [6] Group 4 - Concerns over fiscal deficits in Europe have increased, with criticism of France's proposed budget freeze and Germany's infrastructure investment plans [7] - Eurozone inflation in August was reported at 2.1%, slightly above market expectations, reinforcing the view that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7] - The US dollar index has risen above 98.45, supported by a weaker euro and yen amid global economic concerns [7] Group 5 - Gold prices have risen due to strong demand from ETFs and central banks, although adjustments occurred following a rebound in the US dollar index [9] - The US stock market stabilized, with Google winning a significant antitrust case, allowing it to retain its Chrome browser business without divestiture [11] - Following the ruling, stocks of Google and Apple saw significant after-hours gains of 6.76% and 3.08% respectively, leading to a rebound in US stock futures [12]

贵金属的狂欢盛宴还在演绎。 近来，金银价格蒙眼狂奔，资本市场情绪高涨。 周三，港A黄金及贵金属股早盘冲高，不过随后有所回落。 截至发稿，A股西部黄金涨停，招金黄金涨超5%，港股灵宝黄金涨超4%，中金黄金、招金矿业、紫金 矿业等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 26.51 | +2.41 | 10.00% | 241.51亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 10.32 | +0.51 | 5.20% | 95.87 Z | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 18.11 | +0.35 | 1.97% | 877.85 Z | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 36.29 | +0.38 | 1.06% | 1623.41 Z | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 16.320 | +0.720 | 4.62% | 210.03亿 | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | ...

国内沪金，积存金走势： 国国内黄金随着过国际市场的超涨，沪金，积存金也出现大涨空间，当前沪金最高在818附近，积存金最高811 附近，这波趋势上涨很难想象出有如此大的空间。还是维持张德盛之前的看法，这波国内金，看涨不猜顶，多 头趋势下绝对不做多，只能等待回落做多，没有其他的什么方式，方法。这波走成这样，做了多也看不了那么 多，等待回落多。本周还是等数据公布后，再看具体的交易。 一篇文章的牵引，可能看不出什么，但是长长久久的精准分析，才是我们稳步提升利润的主要途径。可能你见 过太多的分析，也见过太多的盈利，然而亏损还是跟随你，那是因为你总喜欢综合分析操作，而市场本身就是 多数必死，少数必盈的抉择。综合分析，不如只跟一人，虽然没人能保证百分百盈利，但是，我们只要建立入 场、出场、风控三位一体的平衡术，实现稳定盈利即可。积少成多，其实也没那么难。 黄金走势分析： 黄金多头趋势不变，上涨不猜顶，日内交易原则，等待回落做多，下方支撑3525，3500，确认低点后再做有效 交易。现在黄金不用做过多分析，在美联储的降息环境下，黄金被主力，市场推动上涨，并且上涨无法猜顶， 在这种情况下，建议只有一个就是做多，但每次的上涨也无 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - sentiment is generally stable, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [3][4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [5][6]. - PX prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the start - up rate increasing in Asia and the downstream PTA having a restart plan in the fourth quarter, and there is still an expectation of destocking [8][9]. - PTA's September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - Ethylene glycol's overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [13][14]. - Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [19][21]. - Propylene prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market tending to be loose overall and strong support from the upstream raw material end [22][23]. - Plastic PP prices are expected to be volatile and weak, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation and the peak - season demand likely to be weak [24][25]. - PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with increasing supply and weakening macro - drive [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with stable supply and uncertain demand improvement [34][35]. - Methanol prices should be shorted on rallies, with increasing supply and high port inventory [36][37]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, with the domestic supply being loose and the demand showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender has a certain support for the market [38]. - Double - offset paper production is difficult to increase significantly, with weak demand and limited cost support [40][41]. - Log prices are in a weak balance in the short term, and the medium - and long - term market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [42][43]. - Pulp prices can be lightly tested for long positions in the SP11 contract [45][46]. - BR prices should hold short positions in the BR10 contract, and natural rubber should hold long positions in the RU01 contract [49][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 contract settled at $65.59, up $1.58/barrel, +2.47% month - on - month; Brent2511 contract settled at $69.14, up $0.99/barrel, +1.45% month - on - month [1]. - **Related News**: Trump will ask the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on the tariff case, and he also called for a "substantial" interest rate cut by the Fed. The US manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 48.7 but was still below the boom - bust line [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - sentiment is stable, geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Brent contract operating in the range of $68.5 - $69.5/barrel [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3549 points at night (- 0.06%), and BU2512 closed at 3492 points at night (+0.00%). The spot price in Shandong rose by 30 yuan/ton, and that in South China rose by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, the increase in crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment, and the terminal demand was relatively stable. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the supply increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. In the South China market, the price was slightly pushed up due to improved market sentiment and demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and strong; for the spread, the asphalt - crude oil spread is volatile; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2830 at night (- 0.39%), and LU11 closed at 3530 at night (- 0.34%). The high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread in the Singapore paper - cargo market was $0.8/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread was $2.38/ton [5]. - **Related News**: The Dangote refinery in Nigeria exported the first batch of gasoline to North America at the end of August, and the RFCC unit resumed operation on August 22. There were no transactions in the Singapore spot window on September 2 [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weakly volatile; for the spread, pay attention to the short - term contango opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 6834 during the day (- 32/- 0.47%) and 6862 at night (+28/+0.41%). The PX spot price was estimated at $846/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month [8]. - **Related News**: A factory in East China postponed the restart of its PX and PTA units. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and US sanctions on some oil - producing countries pushed up oil prices. The Asian PX start - up rate continued to increase, and the downstream PTA had a restart plan in the fourth quarter, with an expectation of destocking [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile at a high level; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA601 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 4756 during the day (- 16/- 0.34%) and 4766 at night (+10/+0.21%). The PTA spot basis continued to weaken [11]. - **Related News**: Some PTA units were restarting or shutting down, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4339 (- 88/- 1.19%) during the day and 4363 (+24/+0.55%) at night. The spot basis was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [13]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 5.1 tons week - on - week, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to do basis positive spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2510 main contract closed at 6438 during the day (- 30/- 0.46%) and 6446 at night (+8/+0.12%). The price of straight - spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, and a factory in Xinjiang restarted its 200,000 - ton straight - spun polyester staple unit [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [16]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: The PR2511 main contract closed at 5910 (- 40/- 0.67%) during the day and 5928 at night (+18/+0.30%). The polyester bottle - chip market transaction atmosphere was average [16][18]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was partially lowered [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract of pure benzene and styrene futures closed at 5936 during the day (- 74/- 1.23%) and 6012 at night (+76/+1.28%); the EB2510 main contract closed at 6934 during the day (- 79/- 1.13%) and 7018 at night (+84/+1.21%). The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Related News**: A new cracking ethylene unit in Shandong Yulong plans to be put into operation in mid - September [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on pure benzene and short on styrene; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 main contract closed at 6405 (- 18/- 0.28%) during the day and 6425 at night (+20/+0.31%). The propylene price in Shandong rose slightly [22]. - **Related News**: The listing price of propylene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propylene market is generally loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with strong support from the upstream raw material end [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of PP拉丝 in North China decreased by 30/0 yuan/ton [24]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is new production capacity expected to be put into operation for plastic PP, and the peak - season demand is likely to be weak, so the price is expected to be volatile and weak [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong was stable, while the price in Jiangsu increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was basically unchanged, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Jinning was stable [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, PVC is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 01 contract closed at 1267 yuan (- 4/- 0.3%) during the day and 1280 yuan at night (13/1.0%). The SA9 - 1 spread was - 115 yuan [31]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash production equipment had changes in operation status, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply increases, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, with weakening macro - drive [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 backwardation strategy in the first half of the month; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 01 contract closed at 1134 yuan/ton (- 3/- 0.26%) during the day and 1141 yuan/ton at night (7/0.62%). The 9 - 1 spread was - 179 yuan [34]. - **Related News**: The spot price of float glass increased slightly, and the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass supply is stable, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2393 (+15/+0.63%). The production - area and consumption - area prices were reported [36]. - **Related News**: The international methanol (excluding China) production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device start - up rate is stable, the import is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is increasing. The domestic supply is loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is recommended to short at high levels; for the spread, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%). The ex - factory price was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily urea production increased, and India tendered for 200,000 tons of urea [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender