关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 报告正文 2. 政策高频：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 2.1 国务院办公厅：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，将从统 筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革、推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展、建设更高水平 开放型经济新体制、健全科学化、精细化、法治化治理模式四个方面推进改革。广东将通过支持深圳建设一 批高水平高校、深化数据交易规则以及场景探索、支持前海高标准建设现代服务业集聚区、支持深圳推进放 宽市场准入特别措施等举措，全力以赴支持深圳的改革探索。 2.2 中办、国办：进一步保障和改善民生 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生，着力解决群众急难愁盼的 意见》。围绕民生保障，《意见》强调增强社会保障公平性，提出有效扩大社会保障覆盖面、加强低收入群 体兜底帮扶等政策举措。围绕公平性，《意见》强调提高基本公共服务均衡性，提出全方位提高基本公共服 务质效、推行由常住地提供基本公共服务等政策举措。围绕民生服务普惠性方面，《意见 ...

分析人士指出，"以旧换新"等政策支持与"618"购物节的提前启动形成合力，共同推动了5月社零的快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，5月限额以上 单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。 东吴证券分析师芦哲表示，社零超预期，一部分原因在于提前启动的"618 购物节"和"国补"叠加，另一部分原因可能在于"抢国补"。"5-6月诸多地 区传出国补暂停的说法，尽管很多省份进行辟谣，但可能还是有不少消费者在此期间抢时间购买以旧换新产品。"芦哲在研报中写道。 记者 王珍 5月中国经济运行总体平稳，虽然投资继续放缓，但消费零售表现亮眼，工业生产也较有韧性。分析人士预计，二季度GDP同比增速有望继续达到 5%以上。 但他们同时指出，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，叠加下半年外贸环境不确定性仍在，稳增长政策进一步发力的概率相对上升。监管层或在三 季度推出新一轮增量政策，以进一步激发市场活力。 5月份一系列数据中，社零表现尤为亮眼。当月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点，创2024年初以来的最高水平。 国家统计局数据显示，1-5 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 侯倩楠 报告正文 2. 政策高频：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 2.1 国务院办公厅：深入推进深圳综合改革试点 6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》，将从统 筹推进教育科技人才体制机制一体改革、推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展、建设更高水平 开放型经济新体制、健全科学化、精细化、法治化治理模式四个方面推进改革。广东将通过支持深圳建设一 批高水平高校、深化数据交易规则以及场景探索、支持前海高标准建设现代服务业集聚区、支持深圳推进放 宽市场准入特别措施等举措，全力以赴支持深圳的改革探索。 2.2 中办、国办：进一步保障和改善民生 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生，着力解决群众急难愁盼的 意见》。围绕民生保障，《意见》强调增强社会保障公平性，提出有效扩大社会保障覆盖面、加强低收入群 体兜底帮扶等政策举措。围绕公平性，《意见》强调提高基本公共服务均衡性，提出全方位提高基本公共服 务质效、推行由常住地提供基本公共服务等政策举措。围绕民生服务普惠性方面，《意见 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends and Policies - The new round of consumer goods replacement policy in 2024 has positively impacted sales, exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] - As of May 31, 2023, the policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] - The automotive sector is a significant contributor to household consumption, with banks focusing on this area to stimulate demand through various financial incentives [2] Group 2: Financial Services Innovations - Commercial banks are leveraging government policies to innovate financial services, particularly in the automotive sector, offering subsidies and credit card installment services [2][3] - Agricultural Bank has introduced age-friendly renovation installment products to meet consumer demand in home decoration [5] - Banks are enhancing service quality by providing "combination" financial products for large purchases, such as home and car loans [4] Group 3: Collaboration and Market Activation - Banks are strengthening partnerships with enterprises to enhance service networks and stimulate market activity, creating a "government subsidy + bank discount + enterprise promotion" model [6] - Various banks are collaborating with major e-commerce platforms to offer discounts and installment plans, increasing consumer engagement [6] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the synergy between financial services and the replacement policy, providing targeted financial support to related enterprises [7]

封面新闻记者 杨芮雯 6月15日，中央广播电视总台《美好生活大调查》"美好生活城市之夜"数据发布活动在安徽省合肥市揭晓榜单，成都获"美好消费典范城市"荣誉。 今年伊始，成都消费市场呈现出蓬勃发展的态势。一方面，传统零售与餐饮行业保持着稳健的增长势头；另一方面，新兴消费业态如雨后春笋般迅速崛 起。同时，成都的消费场景愈发丰富多样，充分满足了各类消费者的个性化需求。这些因素共同为成都荣获"美好消费典范城市"称号提供了坚实有力的支 撑。 游客在铁像寺水街坐着小船看电影。图片由成都高新区提供 成都获"美好消费典范城市" 2024年社会消费品零售总额超万亿 消费，既是经济增长最基础、最稳定、最持久的动力，也是人民对美好生活需要的直接体现。 作为西部消费中心城市、全国第二个社会消费品零售总额突破一万亿元的盛会城市，官方数据显示，2024年，成都实现社会消费品零售总额10327.1亿 元，比上年增长3.3%。按消费类型分，商品零售8393.4亿元，增长2.6%；餐饮收入1933.7亿元，增长6.2%。 这一成绩，在全国排名表现亮眼。6月15日，中央广播电视总台《美好生活大调查》"美好生活城市之夜"数据发布活动在安徽省合肥市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods is crucial for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, serving as a "golden key" for economic growth and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Group 2 - The old-for-new policy has been expanded this year, including subsidies for new purchases of digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, and increasing the categories of appliances eligible for the program from 8 to 12. Additionally, 300 billion yuan has been allocated to support this initiative [2][3]. - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, communication devices, and furniture saw significant year-on-year growth in May, with increases of 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively, contributing to a 1.9 percentage point increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2][3]. Group 3 - The old-for-new policy is driving explosive demand, leading to accelerated growth in related industries, particularly in green, smart, and high-quality products. In May, production of new energy vehicles, tablets, and electric bicycles increased by 31.7%, 30.9%, and 20.5% respectively [3][4]. Group 4 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer focus towards the performance and safety of products, moving from mere availability to quality. The old-for-new initiative aims to provide consumers with superior products, facilitating a quality upgrade in consumption and contributing to high-quality economic development [4].

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61%[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level this year[4] - Retail sales in May reached 4.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding market expectations of 4.85%[5] Industrial Sector Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase in added value, contributing 54.3% to overall industrial growth[4] - High-tech manufacturing growth slowed to 8.6%, down by 1.4 percentage points from April, primarily due to high base effects and reduced policy stimulus[4] - The export delivery value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by only 0.6% year-on-year, indicating weakened external demand[4] Investment Trends - Equipment and tool investment surged by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to overall investment growth, driven by policies like "old-for-new" and equipment upgrades[4] - Real estate investment in May fell by 10.7%, with residential investment declining by 10.0%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the property sector[5] - Infrastructure investment recorded a growth rate of 10.42%, supported by special bonds and long-term treasury bonds, despite a slight decline from April[5] Consumer Behavior - Essential consumer goods such as grain and oil saw a growth rate of 14.6%, indicating resilience in basic consumption[5] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories like home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 53.0% and 25.6% respectively[5] - Automotive retail sales grew by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the overall retail growth, primarily due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles[5] Future Outlook - Industrial growth may slow marginally in June, with high-frequency data indicating a shift towards the off-season for several upstream industries[5] - Manufacturing investment is expected to remain high, driven by policy support for equipment updates and green transformation, but may face constraints from low export demand[5] - Retail sales growth may slightly decline, with ongoing policy support being a key factor in sustaining consumer demand[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - In May 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 4.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, exceeding market expectations of 4.9% [5][6]. - The online retail sales growth for the first five months of 2025 was 8.5%, which is 3.5% higher than the overall retail sales growth [5]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumption in various categories, with the sales of consumer electronics and gold jewelry showing remarkable growth [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - May 2025 retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points [5]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.0% year-on-year [5]. - The "May Day" holiday and the preemptive "618" shopping festival contributed to the growth in both online and offline retail [5]. Online and Offline Retail Trends - Online retail sales in May reached 1,061.3 billion yuan, growing by 8.19% year-on-year [5]. - The online penetration rate increased to 25.7% in May, up from 25.3% in the same month last year [5]. - Offline retail continues to focus on supply chain optimization and enhancing consumer experience [5]. Consumption Categories - In May, the retail sales of goods grew by 6.5%, driven by government subsidies and the "old-for-new" policy [5]. - The restaurant sector also saw improvements, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in May [5]. - Various categories experienced significant growth, such as communication equipment (+33.0%) and gold jewelry (+21.8%) [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for e-commerce and instant retail sectors, highlighting companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan [5]. - It also recommends investing in quality gold jewelry brands and the travel industry, anticipating growth in consumer demand during the summer [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing product offerings and store experiences in the department store and supermarket sectors [5].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]

Group 1 - The macro policies have been effective in enhancing market vitality and improving corporate profitability and expectations [2] - In the first four months of the year, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - In April alone, profits grew by 3%, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - In May, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture saw year-on-year growth between 25.6% and 53%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth, with a contribution rate of 63.6% [1] - The production of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw significant year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8% respectively in May [1]