穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，并将其评级展望从负面调整为稳定。 当地时间5月16日，国际信用评级机构穆迪（Moody's Ratings）宣布将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至 Aa1，同时将美国主权信用评级展望从负面调整为稳定。 这家拥有116年历史的评级机构解释称，评级下调"反映了十多年来美国政府债务和利息支付率的上升， 且该比率显著高于评级类似的主权国家。" "虽然我们承认美国拥有强大的经济和金融实力，但我们认为这些实力已无法完全抵消财政指标的下 滑。"穆迪在新闻稿中写道。 至此，全球三大评级机构对美国的主权信用评级保持一致，均给予美国第二高评级。此前，标准普尔于 2011年8月将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+，惠誉评级也于2023年8月将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+。 诚然，一些投资者认为，此次穆迪降级恐加剧近期贸易战对美元和美债特殊地位的损害，甚至推高基准 10年期美债收益率突破4.5%，并拖累美国经济增长和市场情绪。 巨额赤字 穆迪认为，历届美国政府和国会却都未能扭转美国巨额财政赤字和利息成本上升的趋势。 该机构预计，未来十年，鉴于福利支出增加而政府收入基本持平，美国的财政赤字将进一步扩 ...

许多人以为中美贸易战已经结束，但实际上这只是一个误解。5月12日，中美双方互相降低关税，虽然似 乎代表着贸易战谈判的突破，但这只是本轮贸易战的第一步，未来特朗普很可能会继续反复施压。 回顾2018年的贸易战，特朗普便已反复了三次，直到那时贸易战才接近尾声。2019年1月，在中美签署了 第一阶段贸易协议时，市场一度乐观，认为贸易战即将结束。然而，仅仅四个月后，特朗普便再次加征了 关税。 为何特朗普会反复加码？他的背后逻辑是如何支撑的？为什么这次谈判仅一个月就迎来破冰，而上次则花 费了近十个月？以下通过数据解读其根本原因。 普的减税政策下，富人群体得到了相当的税收优惠，导致财政收入每年减少约2000亿美元。这使得赤字与 美债利息之间形成了恶性循环，财政赤字的增加直接推动了美债发行量的增加，进而带动美债利息上升。 如今，美国的美债总额已经从20万亿美元增加至36万亿美元，利息也从3000亿美元飙升至近9000亿美元， 远超特朗普1.0时期的水平。 与此相比，2020年疫情期间，美联储通过降息来应对经济衰退，尽管美债总额急剧增加，但由于低利率， 利息却几乎保持不变。特朗普面临的财政困境愈发严重，而美联储的加息政策让债 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Ratings downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over rising government debt and interest payments, and the inability of multiple administrations to agree on measures to reduce fiscal deficits and spending [1][5][6] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade by Moody's means that all three major rating agencies (Moody's, Fitch, and S&P Global) have now rated the U.S. below AAA [5] - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, fell by 0.4% in after-hours trading, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose from 4.44% to above 4.48% [1] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - Moody's expressed a pessimistic view on the prospects for reducing deficits and spending, citing a continuous rise in the ratio of government debt to interest payments over the past decade [6][7] - The agency projects that by 2035, mandatory spending, including interest payments, will account for 78% of total government spending, up from 73% in 2024 [7] - The federal fiscal deficit is expected to grow from 6.4% of GDP in 2024 to nearly 9% by 2035, driven by rising interest payments and slow revenue growth [7][8] Group 3: Economic Factors - Despite the downgrade, Moody's noted that the U.S. retains significant credit advantages, including a large and resilient economy and the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [9][10] - The agency anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to have strong growth potential and innovation capabilities, which will support productivity and GDP growth in the long term [10]

Group 1 - The IMF conducted its eighth and final review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in Cameroon, assessing the country's recent economic performance and outlook [1] - The review highlighted concerns regarding Cameroon’s progress on structural and quantitative targets, with the IMF questioning the achievement of these goals [2] - The IMF is particularly worried about the projected rebound in the fiscal deficit for 2024, attributing it to "spending pressures" in budget execution [2] Group 2 - The Cameroonian government acknowledged that declining oil revenues have impacted fiscal income, but internal sources pointed to consistently rising expenditures as the main issue [3] - The accumulation of accounts payable (RAP) remains a significant concern, with the total amount reaching 679.8 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.133 billion) by December 2024, worsening from 646 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.077 billion) in October [3] - The IMF's acceptance of the Cameroonian government's explanations regarding delays in state-owned enterprise reforms and private sector development is critical for future funding and negotiations [3]

回溯市场脉络，4月初"对等关税"政策调整阶段，全球投资市场风险偏好显著下降，黄金市场遭遇明显 抛售压力。4月9日，美国经济下行压力与贸易摩擦加剧，引发市场对美国偿债能力的担忧，庞大且持续 扩张的债务规模开始面临市场审视。在此背景下，4月7日至4月11日，作为传统避险资产的美国国债市 场出现逆转，长期美债价格在三个交易日内累计最大跌幅达8.7%，充分反映全球投资者对市场预期的 转变。受此影响，黄金避险资产属性再度凸显，4月9日至4月22日期间，市场配置需求激增，推动黄金 价格显著上扬。 随着贸易局势的发展，金融体系潜在风险与政策制约因素逐步显现。4月底，市场情绪趋于稳定，黄金 价格也随之回归理性区间。后续贸易关税谈判持续推进，随着超预期信号的出现，黄金价格延续下行趋 势。从当前市场格局研判，短期内黄金或难以形成单边趋势性突破。 黄金市场未来上行空间的拓展，高度依赖美国贸易、经济及财政赤字等领域的风险演变态势。一旦这些 领域出现系统性风险，并伴随风险外溢效应的产生，将形成驱动黄金价格开启新一轮上涨周期的核心动 力。 回溯美国财政数据，自2020年起，美国联邦债务规模呈现加速扩张态势。2024年，美国联邦赤字规模达 ...

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 戴润芝 环球时报记者 李迅典】编者的话：5月7日，白宫发言人表示，美国财政部和商务 部已按照总统特朗普2月签署的行政令要求，在限期内制定了关于设立美国主权财富基金的计划，但其中部分内容遭 到白宫的拒绝，该计划短期内很难有显著进展。主权财富基金被一些媒体形容为"国家的超级理财账户"，是指由一国 政府控制和支配的、通常以外币形式持有的公共财富。在美国，关于联邦层面是否应该设立主权财富基金长期存在争 议，围绕美国政府究竟希望通过这笔资金达成什么目的也有不同的说法。有分析认为，在当下地缘政治紧张局势加剧 的背景下，美国要建立主权财富基金，不仅希望将其作为一个金融工具，而且对其赋予了与外交、产业政策和国家战 略有关的复杂意义。 " 巨大的潜力 "VS" 不完整的想法 " "我们有巨大的潜力，我认为在短时间内，我们将拥有世界最大的基金之一。"今年2月，美国总统特朗普重返白宫后 签署行政令，要求在联邦层面设立主权财富基金，并要求财政部和商务部在90天内提交相关计划。该命令还表明，这 份计划应包括对融资机制、投资策略、基金结构和治理模式的建议，同时需要评估设立和管理此类基金的法律问题。 美国财政部长 ...

5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式发布，中美双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平。14日， 中美双方正式调整了关税政策。 从需求端看，美国一季度个人消费支出仍维持1.8%的增长，虽然看似保持韧性，然而消费结构已显现 明显分化——医疗保健、住房等刚性需求推动服务消费增长1.63%，而耐用品消费则下滑0.65%，特别 是汽车等大额支出显著收缩。联邦基金利率维持4.5%高位的压制，印证了信贷成本攀升对大宗可选消 费的挤出效应。 更值得注意的是，消费增长主要依赖生活必需品的价格效应支撑，奢侈品消费虽保持增长但仅集中在高 净值群体，大众消费已现疲态。在此背景下，随着信用卡违约率攀升和超额储蓄耗尽，中产阶级实际购 买力面临双重挤压，较为明显的反映是消费者信心指数已创下近三年新低。"这意味着，美国经济或将 从'抢进口'带动的浅衰退转向由内生性消费收缩主导的深度调整。如此一来，美联储将陷入两难局面， 一边是经济衰退的压力，另一边是外贸政策不确定带来的通胀漩涡。"杨博光说。 在财政政策方面，杨博光认为，尽管由马斯克领导的"政府效率部"(DOGE)取得的成绩显示，财政支出 同比增速有所下行，财政赤字也呈现下降趋势，但2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may need a significant bond market crash to compel the government to address its deficit issues, as warned by market veteran Stephen Jen [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. deficit has been exceptionally high, exceeding 6% of GDP over the past two years, with a projected 6.4% for fiscal year 2024, up from 6.2% in 2023 [2]. - The Trump administration is pushing for a large tax cut plan, which is expected to increase the national debt burden by at least $3.3 trillion and raise the annual deficit to over 7% of GDP by 2034 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns over the escalating U.S. debt burden due to the tax cut plan have led to rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield approaching 5% [3]. Group 3: Historical Reference - Jen draws parallels to the UK’s Truss government, which faced a bond market crash after attempting to implement a large tax cut without spending cuts, resulting in a rapid increase in bond yields by over 150 basis points [1].

| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]