Core Insights - The discussion at the Summer Davos Forum highlighted the shifting global role of the United States, focusing on concerns about stagflation, isolation, and debt [1][4][10] Group 1: Stagflation Risks - The increase in tariffs by the U.S. is expected to raise inflation and hinder economic growth, with experts predicting that the impact on prices will become evident in 5 to 6 months [5][6] - A 5% to 10% increase in U.S. tariff rates could lead to a GDP growth slowdown of 0.25% to 0.75% [6] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is affecting corporate investment, hiring, and expansion decisions, potentially leading to a stagflation scenario where inflation and economic slowdown coexist [8] Group 2: Trade Isolation - The U.S. is likely to struggle in tariff negotiations, as other countries are accelerating their cooperation, which could lead to the U.S. facing relative isolation [9] - The trend of the U.S. withdrawing from international treaties and organizations has contributed to its diminishing global role, with other nations continuing to strengthen multilateral cooperation [10] Group 3: Debt Crisis - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding international warning thresholds [11] - The growing debt burden implies that a large portion of future tax revenues will be allocated to debt repayment rather than economic development [11] - The interplay of stagflation, isolation, and debt crises poses a risk of a larger economic crisis, with increasing probabilities of recession as tariffs are implemented [11]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow down due to tariffs, with a 40% chance of recession in the near future [1] Economic Outlook - The report indicates that U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be 1.3%, down from the earlier forecast of 2% [1] - The impact of tariff increases is cited as the reason for the downward revision of this year's GDP growth expectations [1] Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley is bearish on the U.S. dollar, attributing this to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth [1] - The firm anticipates that policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including those of emerging markets [1] - A forecast of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected between December and spring 2026 [1] - If a recession or a more significant economic slowdown occurs, a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle may be triggered [1] Stock Market Perspective - Despite the uncertainties in policy, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy [1]

鲍威尔：滞胀并非基本假设，但美联储正监控美国的价格。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：如果出现滞胀，美联储将陷入困境。 ...

鲍威尔称滞胀并非基准情境，但美联储正在监测。(智通财经) ...

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...

Group 1: Non-Farm Data and Gold Price Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported a stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data for May, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2% and an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][3] - This robust employment data led to a surge in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, causing gold futures to drop by 0.84% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1][3] - The dual impact of non-farm data on gold prices is reflected through monetary policy expectations and changes in risk sentiment among investors [1][3] Group 2: Deep Logic of Non-Farm Data Impacting Gold Prices - Healthy employment metrics directly reflect U.S. economic vitality; weak data may lead to expectations of Fed rate cuts, increasing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - Wage growth exceeding expectations could heighten inflation concerns, while simultaneous economic slowdown may lead to "stagflation" worries, enhancing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Historical data shows that weaker-than-expected non-farm reports typically result in an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger-than-expected reports lead to an average decrease of $5.07 [4] Group 3: Industry Pain Points and Investment Challenges - Investors face execution delays during extreme market conditions, with traditional platforms experiencing order delays exceeding 0.5 seconds and slippage rates above 1% [5][6] - The average industry spread of $0.5 per ounce, combined with commissions and overnight interest, can erode over 10% of long-term trading profits [6] - Lack of dynamic risk control tools can lead to significant losses for investors who hold positions or increase leverage during volatile periods [7] Group 4: Solutions Offered by Gold Trading Platforms - Gold trading platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals leverage regulatory compliance and technological innovation to address challenges posed by non-farm data [8] - The platform offers millisecond-level trade execution and zero slippage experiences, ensuring rapid order execution even during extreme market fluctuations [8][9] - A smart risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing alerts and adjusting stop-loss targets automatically [9] Group 5: Compliance and Transparency in Operations - Each trade over 0.1 lots generates a unique code for traceability, ensuring transparency and preventing opaque operations [10] - Client funds are securely stored in licensed banks in Hong Kong, with SSL encryption and multi-layer firewall technology, ensuring safety and efficiency in withdrawals [10] Group 6: Scenario-Based Services and Investor Education - The platform provides pre-release reports on non-farm data, offering strategic recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis [11] - New investors can practice trading strategies through simulated accounts, receiving automated reports on profit and loss distributions [11] - A unique "trading psychology training system" helps investors manage stress during extreme market conditions, improving their decision-making [11] Group 7: Conclusion on Non-Farm Data Volatility - Non-farm data acts as a market "barometer," often leading to significant gold price fluctuations but also presenting structural opportunities [12] - Understanding data logic and utilizing compliant platform tools are crucial for investors to navigate volatility and achieve long-term wealth preservation and growth [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]

A 美联储再度暂停降息 6月19日，美联储发布最新的利率决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%~4.5%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第 四次决定维持利率不变。美联储在2024年9月启动本轮降息周期，经过3次降息把联邦基金利率累计下调100个基点后，于今年1月开始保持利 率不变，并持续至今。美联储表示，对高通胀和高失业率的双向风险的判断有所降低，同时，点阵图偏鹰，美国"滞胀"压力加剧。鲍威尔重 申，美联储将继续保持观望态度，待美国经济走势更明朗之后，再决定如何调整货币政策。 在会后发布的声明中，美联储表示，对失业率的措辞从"稳定在低水平"调整为"保持低位"；与此同时，关于不确定性的措辞表述由"进一步增 加"变更为"有所下降但保持高位"。美联储还维持当前的缩表速度不变，即维持每月50亿美元的国债赎回上限以及350亿美元的机构债券和机 构抵押贷款支持证券的赎回上限。整体而言，6月会议声明略微偏鹰，显示近期美国经济数据边际走弱并未动摇美联储的政策立场。 由于此次会议是季末的货币政策会议，美联储还更新了最新的点阵图和经济预测。在19位官员的降息预测中，中位数依旧是两次，与今年3月 时的预测相同。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate that the economy is at a crossroads between transitioning to a "wage growth and investment-driven growth" model and falling into stagflation [1] Group 1 - One member of the Bank of Japan expressed concerns about the current economic situation [1]