智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，4月建筑业景气度受季节性需求影响有所回落，但基建 投资增速维持高位，专项债靠前发力支撑资金来源。房地产投资承压但销售降幅收窄，政策组合拳有望 提振市场信心。推荐稳增长、出海、低空经济等主线。看好三大方向：1)低估值高分红、业绩稳健、处 于基建房建产业链的央国企;2)业绩高增长的出海国际工程企业;3)低空经济主力军设计企业。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 建筑业景气度有所回落，固定资产投资增速放缓 房地产投资、竣工承压，销售、新开工降幅继续收窄 1-4月，全国房地产开发投资27730亿元，同比下降10.3%，降幅较1-3月扩大0.4pct;商品房销售面积28262 万平方米，同比下降2.8%，降幅较1-3月收窄0.2pct;房屋新开工面积17836万平方米，同比下降23.8%， 降幅较1-3月收窄0.6pct;竣工面积15648万平方米，同比下降16.9%，降幅较1-3月扩大2.6pct。房地产政策 组合拳发布后，奠定了房地产行业去库存的大方向，一线城市快速响应，放开限购、下调首付比例和房 贷利率，稳地产节奏加快，有望促进供需结构改善、房企融资提速，提振房地产市场信心， ...

Group 1: Foreign Trade Resilience - Foreign trade is a crucial component of China's open economy and plays a key role in facilitating domestic and international dual circulation [4] - Despite external uncertainties, foreign trade enterprises are actively exploring new markets and developing new business models to maintain steady growth [4][5] - In Linyi, Shandong, the daily export cargo volume reached 680 standard containers, with a 20% increase in cargo volume following recent trade talks [5][6] Group 2: Market Diversification Strategies - Linyi foreign trade companies are accelerating their market diversification strategies, targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia and enhancing domestic market presence [6] - Companies are increasing investments in e-commerce and redesigning products to cater to domestic consumer preferences [6] - Linyi organized events to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic markets, resulting in significant order acquisitions [6] Group 3: Economic Growth Predictions - Several international investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth due to effective macro policies and progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks [30][31] - Goldman Sachs increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points, while Morgan Stanley raised it by 0.3 percentage points [30][31] - The positive outlook is supported by strong retail sales data and government policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [31][32] Group 4: Automotive Industry Competition - The China Automobile Manufacturers Association has issued an initiative to oppose chaotic price wars in the automotive industry, emphasizing the need for fair competition [35][38] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports this initiative, highlighting that price wars negatively impact production and industry sustainability [36][38] - The ministry plans to enhance oversight of the automotive sector to maintain a healthy competitive environment and protect consumer interests [36][40] Group 5: Employment Services Enhancement - The government is focusing on improving employment services for graduates, with a projected increase in the number of graduates in 2025 [41] - Initiatives include personalized employment guidance and the use of AI technology to assist students in job preparation [45] - The aim is to create a comprehensive employment service system that connects talent with job opportunities effectively [46]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.28） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡，TS2509 运行区间[102.30,202.50] 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑： 1.海外市场方面，美国总统特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收 50%关税的最后期 限延长至 7 月 9 日，欧美"关税战"缓和，美元指数止跌回升，欧美权益市场集体 反弹，有助风险情绪回归。 2.国内方面，稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生 态。险资长期投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安 排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。 3.近期风格切换较为频繁，大盘与小盘轮番占优，市场行情轮动较快，缺乏持 续上涨的主线机会。同时，市场成交额尚未出现明显放量，投资者情绪相对谨慎。 短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing frequent style switches, with large-cap and small-cap stocks alternating in performance, leading to a fast rotation in market trends and a lack of sustained upward momentum [1] - Market trading volume has not shown significant expansion, and investor sentiment remains relatively cautious, suggesting that the market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [1] - Despite the current volatility, there are supportive signals from a series of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting development, which may provide some support for market trends [1] Group 2 - The report highlights three main lines of investment opportunities: first, assets with a high margin of safety; second, the clear logic of the "technology narrative" in the A-share market, suggesting attention to subsequent industry trend catalysts; third, the consumer sector boosted by policy support [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the second quarter due to factors such as the potential decline in downstream开工率 and economic data [2] - Nickel is expected to run with a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the supply surplus, although the cost is firm [3] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [5] Summary by Metal Types Copper - As of May 22, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.22% to 77,920 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is positive, but the fundamentals are weakening. The spot copper price in the domestic market fell, and the market trading was light [1][6] - The SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons [15] Aluminum - As of May 22, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.20% to 20,210 yuan/ton. The price of alumina increased, and the downstream开工率 may decline. The second - quarter aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] - The spot aluminum market trading was light, with a situation of "having price but no market". The SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,099 tons to 58,422 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 386,900 tons [2][7][15] Nickel - As of May 22, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract rose 0.03% to 123,400 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a medium - to - long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to run weakly and volatilely [3] - The spot nickel market saw merchants maintaining a wait - and - see attitude, and the downstream acceptance was low. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 452 tons to 22,562 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 876 tons to 200,910 tons [3][12][15] Tin - As of May 22, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.87% to 264,780 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [5] - The spot tin market had active inquiry intentions, and the downstream made rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. The SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8,056 tons, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,665 tons [5][13][15] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - Zinc: The domestic spot zinc price fell, and the consumption was poor. The SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,400 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 156,225 tons [9][15] - Lead: The domestic spot lead price fell, and the downstream consumption was low. The SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,769 tons to 39,327 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,700 tons to 295,825 tons [10][11][15] - Alumina: The price in different regions increased, and the market trading was warm [8]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is about nickel, written on May 21, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consultation certificate number (Z0019820), and it's a daily report on Shanghai nickel [2] Group 2: Market Data - On May 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,450 yuan/ton, the highest was 123,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 122,960 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 123,280 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 107,562 lots, and the open interest was 59,648 lots [3] - On May 20, 2025, the People's Bank of China cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR by 10 basis points each, while Fed officials stated they prefer only one rate cut this year, and Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, increasing market risk - aversion [3] - On May 21, 2025, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,400 - 125,650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 124,525 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The premium range of Russian nickel was 100 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - As of May 20, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 201,786 tons, down 312 tons from the previous trading day, and the注销仓单占比 was 11.28%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [3] Group 3: Core View - Overall, there is an expectation of cost relaxation for nickel, combined with weak spot demand, inventory may re - enter the accumulation cycle, and nickel prices may continue the bearish pattern [4]

【冠通研究】 上下游博弈，盘面区间运行 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开高走尾盘下行。5 月 20 日，中国央行宣布 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 同步下 调 10 个基点，释放出明确的稳增长信号。美联储高官表态年内更倾向只降息一次周末国 际信用评级机构穆迪决定将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1，美国经济数据及信用 评级双下滑，市场避险惰绪再起，铜价承压。供给端，截止 5 月 19 日，现货粗炼费 (TC)-43.03 美元/千吨，现货精炼费(RC)-4.30 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费负值扩大有所放 缓，由于附产品的利润弥补，目前实质性减产尚未推进。目前对铜供应端的压力维持在 预期偏紧，实质供应尚未见明显缩减，废铜不受关税影响，将继续大量进入国内;库存 端，上期所铜库存去化转为累库，美铜依然继续大幅增加库存。需求端，下游需求边际 走弱，社库止跌回弹，终端动能减弱。截至 2025 年 3 月，电解铜表观消费 137.24 万 吨，相比上月涨跌+9.38 万吨，涨跌幅 7.34%。五月进入需求淡季阶段，预计表观消费量 减少。整体来说，市场对经济保持不确定性预期，基本面方 ...

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Humen Town achieved a GDP of 18.852 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4%, the highest growth rate in the past three years [1][3] - The GDP for the first quarter of 2024 was 17.407 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while in the first quarter of 2023, it was 16.227 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.4% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has been a significant driver of economic growth in Humen, with an investment of 2.517 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0%, and 2.754 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, showing a growth of 9.4% [3] - In 2024, Humen Town's total fixed asset investment exceeded 13 billion yuan, with infrastructure investment accounting for 42.5%, ranking first in the city [3] Major Projects - Four industrial projects from Humen Town were included in the first batch of major projects for 2025, with a total investment exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on new generation information technology, modern services, and traditional industry upgrades [3][5] - The Dongguan Hengshun Electronic Technology project, part of the new generation information technology sector, has a total investment of 365 million yuan, with 120 million yuan planned for investment in 2025 [5] - The Humen Jiangnan Agricultural Products Logistics Center project, part of the modern service industry, has an estimated total investment of 680 million yuan, while the Humen Town Huayi Steel New Materials Intelligent Manufacturing Headquarters project has an estimated investment of 278 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for 2024, exceeding initial targets with significant revenue and profit growth, while also enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 86.228 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.38% compared to the previous year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 92.464 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase of 38.85% [2]. Product Structure - Moutai liquor remained the company's main revenue driver, generating 145.928 billion yuan in revenue, up 15.28% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from the Moutai sauce-flavored liquor series exceeded 24.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.65%, indicating a strong and steady growth trajectory [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.67 billion yuan, alongside an interim dividend of 30 billion yuan, leading to a total cash dividend of 64.672 billion yuan for 2024 [3]. - The actual dividend payout ratio is approximately 80% [3]. - As of April 2025, Moutai had repurchased 2,017,483 shares, accounting for 0.1606% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure exceeding 3 billion yuan [3]. International Business - In 2024, overseas revenue reached 5.189 billion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed 5 billion yuan, with a shift from "product export" to "brand expansion" and "cultural dissemination" [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in coal production and the expected rise in coal supply due to supportive policies, despite a seasonal decline in demand approaching the summer months [1][2][3] - In January-February, the national raw coal production reached 690 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with an average daily output of 11.64 million tons, which is a decrease of 770,000 tons compared to December 2021 [1] - The coal supply policy continues to be enforced, with the National Development and Reform Commission requiring a daily coal output of 12.6 million tons, indicating a gap that is expected to be closed with ongoing support [1] Group 2 - The upcoming off-peak season for thermal coal is anticipated, but high international coal prices and a significant drop in imports may lead to a non-traditional off-peak season [2] - In February, the national electricity consumption increased by 16.9% year-on-year due to lower temperatures, with coastal provinces maintaining a high daily consumption of thermal coal at 1.85 million tons [2] - The global coal price is expected to remain strong due to low capital expenditure in fossil energy and the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply, which supports domestic coal prices [2] Group 3 - The focus on "stabilizing growth and promoting infrastructure" is expected to support coking coal demand, with an increase in production rates as downstream steel companies resume operations [3] - The short-term supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight due to high dependence on imports and limited domestic supply growth [3] - Investment opportunities in the coal sector are identified, emphasizing high dividends, green energy transitions, and growth in coal chemical industries, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [3]