Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious metals and significant increases in minor metals [2][6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry achieved a total revenue of 1,819.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95.4 billion yuan, up 36.55% [6][14]. - The precious metals sector saw a remarkable revenue increase of 27.15% year-on-year, reaching 188.3 billion yuan, with net profits soaring by 64.71% to 9.7 billion yuan [6][26]. - The industrial metals sector reported a revenue of 13,585.3 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase, and a net profit of 697.4 billion yuan, up 24.42% [6][37]. - The energy metals sector experienced a revenue of 812.4 billion yuan, growing by 6.20%, with net profits skyrocketing by 1,389.33% to 53.1 billion yuan [6][37]. - The minor metals sector's revenue reached 137.7 billion yuan, a 14.24% increase, with net profits rising by 40.01% to 7.6 billion yuan [6][37]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry maintained a stable operation in the first half of 2025, with 73.76% of the 141 listed companies reporting revenue growth [14][21]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was 12.04%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin rose to 6.35%, up 0.98 percentage points [14][20]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector's gross margin was 13.52%, with a net margin of 6.27%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [26][27]. - The international gold price reached a peak of 3,500 USD/ounce in the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in demand driven by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [30][27]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector's gross margin was 11.25%, with a net margin of 6.20%, indicating a healthy profitability despite market fluctuations [37][39]. - The average price of copper in the first half of 2025 was 77,562 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [49][50]. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector's performance was notably strong, with lithium salt prices stabilizing and a significant increase in net profits [6][37]. - The sector's gross margin was not explicitly stated, but the dramatic rise in net profits indicates robust demand and effective cost management [6][37]. Minor Metals and New Metal Materials - The minor metals sector's revenue growth was driven by strong demand in emerging technologies, with a focus on rare earth elements and tungsten [6][37]. - The new metal materials sector reported a revenue of 539.3 billion yuan, a 6.63% increase, with net profits rising by 4.70% [6][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) in the precious metals sector, and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [6][37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has made gold more attractive as an asset class [1][3][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The price of gold has reached historical highs, with New York futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, marking a continuous rise for seven trading days [1]. - The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been a significant driver of gold prices, especially following the release of July's core inflation data [3][5]. - The recent political uncertainty, including President Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member, has heightened concerns about the Fed's independence, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Increased inflows into gold ETFs indicate a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors, as they prefer to secure their assets in uncertain times [6]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term trend for gold remains bullish due to its monetary attributes and the ongoing devaluation of the dollar [9][11]. - Ordinary investors are advised to view gold as a long-term asset rather than a short-term investment, emphasizing the importance of gradual accumulation rather than chasing high prices [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The slowdown in US ADP employment growth has led to a softening of the US job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, but the domestic risk appetite has significantly cooled, causing gold prices to fluctuate and close lower. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge, and gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - The weakening of domestic risk preference has caused silver prices to decline. However, the slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market have increased expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3003 kilograms to 43254 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly, risk preference declined, and silver prices fell. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce. The silver basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 11811 kilograms to 1227039 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expected factors include US non - farm payrolls, the final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP, speeches by Fed members, and China's August foreign exchange reserves on Sunday. The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and other data indicate a softening job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge. Gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market increase expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan per kilogram. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:00: Speech by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) [15]. - Time TBD: 2025 World Intelligent Industry Expo from September 5 - 8 [15]. - 14:00: UK retail sales for July [15]. - 17:00: Final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP [15]. - 20:30: US August non - farm payroll report (including employment population, unemployment rate, average hourly wage) and Canada's August employment report [15]. - Sunday: China's August foreign exchange reserves and an OPEC + meeting of eight oil - producing countries on oil production policies [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 43254 kilograms, an increase of 3003 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 4, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1227039 kilograms, a daily increase of 11811 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weakening labor market data and geopolitical uncertainties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - On September 3, New York gold futures surpassed $3616.9 per ounce, marking a historical high, with the price increase linked to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2]. - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, leading to heightened expectations for a rate cut [3]. - President Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member raised concerns about the Fed's independence, further driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the market is advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the upcoming meeting on September 17-18, which may lead to profit-taking or market corrections [5]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift in gold's role from a financial asset to a monetary asset, with central banks increasing gold reserves to bolster their currencies' credibility [6]. - Analysts predict that geopolitical tensions and trade disputes will sustain demand for gold, potentially pushing prices above $4000 per ounce [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Gold should be viewed as a long-term asset rather than a short-term investment, with recommendations for staggered purchases to mitigate market volatility [7]. - Investors are encouraged to treat gold as a stabilizing component of their asset allocation, akin to a "ballast" in a portfolio, rather than seeking quick profits [6][7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The core logic is that there are still medium - to - long - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, bond futures oscillated throughout the day. Due to the recent short - term adjustment in the stock market, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the market interest rate's upward space is limited under the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, so bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, there is insufficient need for a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut, and the downward space of the short - term market interest rate is limited, so the upward momentum of bond futures may be insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has greatly weakened, so there is still room for interest rate cuts in the future, and bond futures are more likely to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the co - existence of medium - to - long - term interest rate cut expectations and low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated yesterday. The short - term stock market adjustment increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the policy interest rate limited the upward space of the market interest rate, leading to a rebound of bond futures. But short - term interest rate cut needs are insufficient, limiting the downward space of market interest rates and the upward momentum of bond futures. Attention should be paid to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank's bond trading operations after the second meeting of the joint working group. In the medium - to - long - term, the loose monetary policy and the weakening RMB depreciation pressure due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut leave room for interest rate cuts, increasing the possibility of bond futures rising [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The decline in the stock market today has widened, which generally aligns with the idea of a fall in sentiment and a rise in risk - aversion mentioned yesterday. Banks, consumer - related industries, public utilities, and transportation, which had relatively small increases since June 20, showed resilience, while TMT continued to lead the decline. Although the trading volume of the two markets has fallen from the high of three trillion, it remains at an active level. After three consecutive negative days in the stock market, sentiment is expected to be cautious, and there is significant pressure for a short - term rebound. However, the short - selling power is not strong, as indicated by the long lower shadow of the stock index. With no strong negative factors, after a rapid and substantial short - term correction, the stock market is expected to return to a volatile state [4]. Market Review - The stock index declined with increased trading volume today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 2.12%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 180.171 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties declined with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [3]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.88 | -1.51 | -2.42 | -2.21 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 21.4783 | 10.143 | 19.4079 | 38.3239 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 1.8541 | 1.5325 | 2.7933 | 4.4942 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 29.8905 | 11.1522 | 26.1202 | 40.4746 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 1.2436 | 0.8984 | 1.6332 | 0.5496 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.25 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -2.83 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.72 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 25442.57 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1801.71 | [6]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results, with Shanghai gold futures at 811.22 CNY per gram, up 0.11%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9764.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.24% [1] - International precious metals futures were all in the red, with COMEX gold priced at 3592.00 CNY per ounce, down 0.77%, and COMEX silver at 41.40 USD per ounce, down 0.98% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 817.50 CNY per gram and 9851.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 823.24 CNY and 9965.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August rose slightly to 48.7 from 48.0 in July, remaining below the neutral line of 50 [3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that global trade under its rules has dropped to 72%, the lowest since World War II, and may decline further due to tariff impacts [3] - The recent increase in global trade driven by preemptive stockpiling is expected to taper off, leading to a gradual realization of tariff effects on world trade until 2026 [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term boost due to the slight rise in the PMI, but remained within a daily fluctuation range due to a weakening labor market and threats to Federal Reserve independence [4] - Increased risk in the economic and financial landscape is anticipated as the WTO warns of significant damage to the international trade system, which may lead to rising tariffs [4] - In light of heightened risk aversion and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold and silver prices are expected to rise further [4]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 984.26 tons, reflecting a decrease of 6.3 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On September 3, spot gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive day, reaching a peak of $3,578.59 per ounce, marking a historical high, and closing at $3,559.03 per ounce, an increase of $25.68 or 0.73% [5] - The reduction in gold ETF holdings after a period of accumulation may indicate that some investors are choosing to take profits at high levels [5] Group 2 - A global sell-off of government bonds is occurring, with U.S., U.K., Italy, France, and Japan's bonds under pressure, leading to a rise in the U.S. 30-year bond yield by 5.3 basis points to 4.97% [5] - Concerns over the fiscal situation in the U.K. and rising political tensions in Japan are driving funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar [5] - Investor worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are also contributing to the surge in gold prices [5] Group 3 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is continuously pushing gold prices higher, with Fed Governor Waller suggesting that rate cuts should begin this month and continue in the following months, depending on future economic data [5] - Recent labor market data shows that U.S. job vacancies fell to a 10-month low, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand, which reinforces expectations for a rate cut in September [6] - Technical analysis indicates that while the relative strength index (RSI) is showing overbought conditions, bullish momentum remains strong, with key resistance and support levels identified for gold prices [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching a record high of $3578 per ounce, with a closing price of $3558.93, reflecting a 0.72% increase, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and weak employment data [1][3] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with job vacancies decreasing by 176,000 to 7.181 million, the lowest since September 2024, and the vacancy rate dropping to 4.3%, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [1][3] - The number of unemployed individuals has surpassed job vacancies for the first time since April 2021, with only 0.99 job openings per unemployed person, highlighting a significant shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to adjust its monetary policy in response to the labor market's deterioration, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [3][4] Economic Policies - The current economic challenges are attributed to the Trump administration's import tariffs and immigration policies, which have increased business costs and tightened labor supply [3][4] - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly signaling the need for rate cuts, with various members expressing the potential for multiple cuts in the next three to six months, depending on economic data [4][5] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that while tariffs have led to price increases, businesses are hesitant to pass on these costs, complicating the balance between controlling inflation and maintaining strong employment [4][5] Market Sentiment - The rise in gold prices is seen as a reflection of global uncertainties, with investor concerns about the Fed's independence and dovish statements amplifying risk-averse sentiment [5] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is anticipated to be a key focus for traders, as it may provide further insights into the labor market's health and influence gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices recorded a significant bullish candle, closing near $3578.36, indicating potential for further upward movement, with traders eyeing the $3600 resistance level [7] - Short-term price action suggests a test of support around $3530, with potential for short-term buying opportunities if this level holds [7] Trading Strategies - Suggested long positions near $3530 with a stop loss at $3524 and targets around $3545/$3560 [8] - Suggested short positions between $3555-$3560 with a stop loss at $3565 and targets around $3530/$3500 [8]

北京时间9月3日晚间，现货黄金首次升至3560美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高，年内累涨逾35%。美股黄金股开盘上涨，其中哈莫尼黄金涨逾5%，盎格鲁 黄金涨逾3%。 国际金价已连续七个交易日上涨。 自2025年9月5日（星期五）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金水平从 13%调整为14%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从12%调整为13%；Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15% 调整为16%。 上金所还提醒，请各会员提高风险防范意识，做细做好风险应急预案，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资，确保市场稳定健康运 行。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，全球市场正在酝酿一场风暴：特朗普关税政策悬而未决，美联储独立性遭遇罕见质疑，英国债市剧烈震荡，日本政局动 荡不安……避险情绪全面爆发，贵金属已成为全球资金抱团投资避险的核心标的。技术面也发出强烈看涨信号，黄金一旦有效突破3600美元关口，下一目 标将剑指3800美元区间；白银补涨行情一触即发，极有可能挑战前期高点。但市场 ...