凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。 2026年1月19日，受美欧贸易关系紧张影响，避险情绪大幅升温，资金回流黄金白银等贵金属，金价早 盘触及4698美元后小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨1.58%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨2.29%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨0.38%。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。根据世界 银行对英国经济增长的评估，如果特朗普将关税自6月起提高至25%，英国经济可能遭受216亿英镑的损 失。据凯投宏观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 相关分析指出，特朗普总统任期内，美国的关税政策非常频繁且具有反复性，涉及多个方面，包括与地 缘敏感地区的矿产金属贸易关系。尽管2025年已经表现出紧张和博弈加剧的态势，但预计2026年这些关 系仍将存在反复，需要持续关注。近期华尔街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望 最终触及6000美元。 ...

凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。根据世界 银行对英国经济增长的评估，如果特朗普将关税自6月起提高至25%，英国经济可能遭受216亿英镑的损 失。据凯投宏观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 2026年1月19日，受美欧贸易关系紧张影响，避险情绪大幅升温，资金回流黄金白银等贵金属，金价早 盘触及4698美元后小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，黄金ETF华 夏(518850)涨1.58%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨2.29%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨0.38%。 相关分析指出，特朗普总统任期内，美国的关税政策非常频繁且具有反复性，涉及多个方面，包括与地 缘敏感地区的矿产金属贸易关系。尽管2025年已经表现出紧张和博弈加剧的态势，但预计2026年这些关 系仍将存在反复，需要持续关注。近期华尔街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望 最终触及6000美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in gold prices, with major brands in the industry collectively raising their prices for gold jewelry, reflecting broader market trends and economic factors [1][2][3] - On January 19, 2025, the price of gold jewelry rose sharply, with notable increases across various brands, indicating a collective industry response to market conditions [1] - The underlying logic for the surge in gold prices is attributed to global liquidity expansion and the depreciation of the US dollar, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing their gold reserves [3][4] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances are accelerating the gold price rally, with recent conflicts impacting market sentiment and supply constraints [4] - The demand for gold is shifting, with investment demand surpassing decorative demand for the first time in China, indicating a fundamental change in consumer behavior and market dynamics [8] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, driven by macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand tightness, and geopolitical factors, making high volatility a new norm in the market [4][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising demand for precious metals due to increased geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion, particularly following the announcement of tariff increases by the U.S. government [1] - The main contract for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.35%, closing at 1053 yuan per gram, while the main silver contract surged by 5.88%, reaching a record high of 23565 yuan per kilogram [1] - The SC crude oil main contract fell by 0.52%, settling at 440 yuan per barrel, indicating a slight decline in oil prices amidst the broader market volatility [1] Group 2 - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set to open on January 20, with an estimated increase of approximately 85 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices based on a 2% change in reference crude oil prices [1] - If the price adjustment is implemented, it is estimated that filling a 70-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 4 yuan for consumers [1]

Group 1 - The escalation of the US-EU tariff dispute has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a surge in international precious metal prices, with spot gold briefly surpassing $4690 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - Starting February 1, 2026, the US will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, as stated by Trump on social media [1] - If an agreement for the "complete and thorough purchase of Greenland" is not reached, the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - Gold stocks were active in early trading, with Zijin Mining International (02259) rising by 3.86% to HKD 172.4, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) increasing by 3.84% to HKD 37.9 [2] - China National Gold International (02099) saw a rise of 1.96% to HKD 192.8, while Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.33% to HKD 42.78 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs on January 19, with London gold rising 1.73% to $4,675.213 per ounce and London silver soaring 3.75% to $93.514 per ounce, marking significant market movements [1][10]. Market Performance - London gold spot price increased by 1.73%, closing at $4,675.213 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,690 per ounce [2][10]. - London silver spot price surged by 3.75%, reaching $93.514 per ounce, with a peak of $94.12 per ounce during the day [2][10]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.81% to $4,678.4 per ounce, hitting a high of $4,698 per ounce [3][12]. - COMEX silver futures experienced a significant increase of 5.44%, closing at $93.35 per ounce, with a maximum of $94.365 per ounce [4][13]. Factors Driving Price Increase - The surge in gold and silver prices was primarily triggered by geopolitical tensions, particularly the announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding punitive tariffs on eight European countries opposing the U.S. acquisition of Greenland [5][14]. - The tariffs, set to begin at 10% on February 1, 2026, and potentially rising to 25% by June 1, were seen as a direct challenge to international norms and increased market uncertainty, leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][14]. - The combination of geopolitical risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, amid ongoing investigations into its chairman, further weakened the dollar's credibility, prompting a shift towards precious metals [6][16]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases reflect a robust underlying demand for gold and silver, driven by both defensive buying due to geopolitical risks and structural factors such as low silver inventories and strong industrial demand [7][16]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, while silver's trajectory may be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset [8][17]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious of short-term volatility, as any easing of geopolitical tensions or unexpected strength in the dollar could lead to rapid profit-taking and price corrections [8][18].

Core Insights - The global macro environment has shifted dramatically, impacting the digital asset market, with a notable decline in major cryptocurrencies due to rising "risk-off" sentiment triggered by new U.S. tariffs on European goods [1][3] - Approximately $600 million in cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated as traders reduced leverage and reassessed risk exposure amid uncertainty [1][3] - Altcoins experienced the most significant sell-off, with Solana (SOL) dropping over 6%, and XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) declining between 4% and 7% [1][3] Market Trends - The rise of safe-haven assets contrasts sharply with the underperformance of risk assets, as gold and silver prices surged to historical highs while U.S. stock futures, particularly the Nasdaq 100 index, showed weakness [2][3] - The majority of the $600 million in liquidated positions were bullish, indicating a market shift from "aggressive expansion" to "defensive positioning" [2][4] - Despite Bitcoin showing some resilience, it fell below $93,000 after failing to reach $98,000, while Ethereum (ETH) hovered around $3,200, reflecting investor caution towards high-volatility assets during uncertain trade policy periods [1][2][3] Future Outlook - GTC Zhehui Capital suggests that while the cryptocurrency market initially performed well due to spot ETF inflows, the current deep correction highlights the need for investors to be aware of returning macro risks [2][4] - The ability of Bitcoin to hold above the $90,000 mark will be crucial in determining whether the market is experiencing a short-term pullback or a trend reversal [2][4] - The correlation between cryptocurrencies and global risk sentiment has reached new heights, with price movements likely to be influenced by trade policies and geopolitical situations [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have surpassed 1400 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, driven by market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Gold prices in China have recently crossed the 1400 yuan per gram mark, marking a record high [1] - The current gold price is showing signs of being overvalued, with a projected value center of approximately 5000 USD per ounce by 2026, while the current price is around 4600 USD [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased tariffs imposed by Trump amid opposition from Europe regarding Greenland, which has heightened market risk aversion [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors holding gold are advised to consider reducing their positions to lock in profits at these high levels, while those who have not yet entered the market should avoid chasing prices blindly [1]

Group 1 - President Trump's announcement of escalating tariffs on eight European nations triggered $875 million in crypto liquidations within 24 hours, with Bitcoin dropping 3% to $92,000 as traders reduced risk exposure [1] - The affected nations include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, facing 10% tariffs starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1 [2] - The tariff announcement led to significant liquidation in derivative markets, with $788 million from long positions and only $83 million from shorts, indicating traders were caught off guard by geopolitical risks [3] Group 2 - Major exchanges experienced significant liquidations, with Hyperliquid leading at $262 million, followed by Bybit at $239 million and Binance at $172 million, with long positions making up over 90% of forced closures [4] - Despite the tariff shock, Bitcoin futures open interest showed signs of recovery, although renewed pressure is anticipated due to the geopolitical situation [4][5] - US stock futures fell 0.7% for the S&P 500 and 1% for the Nasdaq, while European equity futures dropped 1.1%, reflecting a risk-off sentiment across asset classes [5] Group 3 - Gold prices surged 1.5% to record highs as investors sought safety, while the dollar weakened 0.3% against the yen [6] - Analysts suggest that the delayed implementation of the tariffs may lead to a more measured investor response, potentially easing volatility as markets digest the announcement [6]

报告导读： 期货研究报告 2026年01月19日 周报 贵金属期货：避险挥之不去，利多因素增加 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 图 1： 黄金期货内外盘价格 元/克 美元/金衡盎司 图 2：白银期货内外盘价格 元/千克 美元/金衡盎司 数据来源：同花顺，宁证期货 市场回顾与展望：美国总统特使威特科夫透露，美国已向伊朗传递直接信息。威特科夫称，伊朗经济 状况严峻，并表示若伊朗希望回归国际社会，可通过外交方式解决相关问题，其中，铀浓缩、导弹、敏感 材料以及"地区代理武装"是四项关键议题。威特科夫还称，如果无法通过外交方式解决相关问题，那么 "替代方案将非常糟糕"，地缘风险虽然没有进一步恶化，但是变动风险依然存在。与此同时，美国总统 特朗普表示，希望哈塞特留任现职而不是调往美联储。此番言论一出，前美联储理事凯文·沃什迅速跃升 为下一任美联储主席的最热门人选。围绕美联储主席继任人选依然悬而未决，华尔街避险情绪有所增加， 对贵金属也增加了利多因素。 美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个 地区报告没有变化，1个地 ...