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鲍威尔:现有数据很好地支持利率“保持在中性水平”。我们没有处于中性利率,其原因在于对通胀的预测。
news flash· 2025-06-24 14:38
Core Viewpoint - The current data supports maintaining interest rates at a "neutral level," but the economy is not at neutral rates due to inflation forecasts [1] Group 1 - Existing data is strong enough to justify the stance on interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is not currently at a neutral interest rate [1] - Inflation predictions are the primary reason for not being at neutral rates [1]
克利夫兰联储主席:利率仍处于适度限制区间 短期内或将维持不变
智通财经网· 2025-06-24 14:22
智通财经APP获悉,美国克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示,当前的利率水平"仅具适度限制性",美联 储可能会在一段时间内维持借贷成本不变。 尽管在6月的会议上公布的最新利率预测显示,美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息,但观点存在 明显分歧,有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 经济韧性增强 维持利率不变风险较低 哈马克认为,美国经济展现出较强韧性,因此当前维持利率不变所面临的风险相对较小。她指出,目前 尚未看到足以促使降息的经济疲软迹象,但也"密切关注这一可能性"。 在美联储上次议息会议之后,其他官员也陆续表达了对未来政策调整时间表的不同看法。联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒以及监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼(两位均为特朗普任命的官员)表示,如果通胀继续受控,最早 在7月就可能考虑降息。而旧金山联储主席戴利则认为,秋季降息的可能性更高。 鲍威尔强调耐心等待更多数据 哈马克在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出,尽管近期通胀已有所缓解,美联储距离实现其2%的通胀目 标仍"有一段路要走"。她还强调,目前的通胀数据具有滞后性,未必能准确反映当前经济的最新变化, 包括近期油价上涨所带来的通胀预期风险。 截至发稿,美联储主席鲍威尔正在出席众议院金融服 ...
欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔:我是认为我们在中性利率方面达到目标的委员之一。
news flash· 2025-06-24 12:27
欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔:我是认为我们在中性利率方面达到目标的委员之一。 ...
欧洲央行委员释放重磅信号:未来半年降息窗口或开启 通胀预期仍温和
智通财经网· 2025-06-24 06:53
智通财经APP获悉,欧洲央行管理委员会委员弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛在接受专访时重申,欧洲央行 仍保留未来半年内启动降息的政策空间。这位法国央行行长指出,当前市场评估显示通胀预期整体保持 温和态势,若这一趋势得以延续,未来六个货币政策周期内进一步放宽货币条件存在合理预期。 维勒鲁瓦特别强调,近期欧元对主要货币的大幅升值客观上形成了对国际油价上涨的对冲效应。他判断 欧元区经济运行已回归常态化轨道,但明确区分了中性利率与终端利率两个关键概念:"虽然两者在特 定条件下可能数值趋同,但从政策逻辑本质而言,中性利率代表既不刺激也不收缩经济的理论平衡点, 而终端利率则是加息周期的最终政策锚点,二者在政策框架中承担不同功能定位。" 谈及外部风险因素,维勒鲁瓦将中东地缘政治局势列为"新的重大不确定性",认为该地区局势演变存在 双向波动可能。针对能源市场波动,他表示欧洲央行正密切监测国际油价走势,但强调"单纯油价变动 不足以触发政策响应",只有当能源价格波动通过二次效应传导至核心通胀,并引发通胀预期脱锚风险 时,货币政策调整才会纳入决策考量。 对于欧美贸易关系潜在变化,维勒鲁瓦评估认为,若贸易紧张局势出现实质性升级,将通过抑制 ...
欧洲央行管委Villeroy:尽管油价波动,欧洲央行仍有可能降息。欧洲央行利率重回中性水平。中性利率并非终值利率。油价不足以成为欧洲央行作出反应的指引。
news flash· 2025-06-24 04:11
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider interest rate cuts despite fluctuations in oil prices, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - The ECB's interest rates have returned to neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - Neutral interest rates are not considered the terminal rates, implying that further adjustments may be possible in the future [1] - Oil prices are not seen as a sufficient indicator for the ECB to make policy changes, highlighting the bank's broader economic considerations [1]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250618
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-18 02:47
Macro Strategy - The economic resilience in May is highlighted by a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.8% and a service production index growth of 6.2%, indicating a slight weakening in industrial supply and a slight strengthening in the service sector [1][18] - Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month's growth by 1.3 percentage points, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][18] - The report identifies three distinct economic narratives: (1) sectors supported by policy, such as infrastructure and durable goods consumption, (2) new productive forces with strong endogenous momentum, and (3) real estate and non-subsidized consumption, which are relatively weaker [1][18] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its 0-1 industrialization, with significant policy support and application advancements, including the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [9][10] - Equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization and iteration of solid-state battery production equipment, with companies like Xianlead Intelligent and Winbond Technology actively advancing their equipment layouts [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-research in baseband chips for major manufacturers, as it is crucial for brand influence and achieving competitive technological levels [12][13] Financial Products - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) is noted for its strong liquidity and active trading, with a net subscription of 4.74 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting increasing market interest [11] - The ETF has demonstrated excellent performance with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, positioning it favorably among non-bank financial products [11] Recommendations - The report recommends companies in the oil service equipment and gas turbine sectors to benefit from high oil prices, highlighting firms like Jereh and Neway as key players [14] - In the real estate sector, it suggests focusing on companies like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, which are expected to stabilize and recover in the current market environment [14] - The report also identifies opportunities in the gas industry, particularly for companies with strong long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as New Hope Energy and China Gas [15]
今夜利率决议料再“按兵不动” 美联储官员静待经济“迷雾”驱散
智通财经网· 2025-06-18 01:25
智通财经APP获悉,美联储官员普遍预计将在美东时间周三举行的利率决议上,连续第四次会议维持利 率不变,并重申在调整借贷成本前,需更清晰了解一系列政府政策调整对经济的影响。政策制定者此前 曾警告称,唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能推高通胀与失业率,但迄今为止,稳健的就业增长与通胀降 温让美联储官员今年得以维持利率不变。 德意志银行高级美国经济学家布雷特·瑞安表示:"观望策略此前成效显著。如今既无迫切调整理由,通 胀前景仍存上行风险,为何要偏离这一策略?" 鉴于经济前景充满不确定性,投资者与经济学家将密切关注政策制定者更新的经济与利率预测。官员们 可能继续如多数预测所示,在今年计入两次降息,但部分经济学家称,"点阵图"可能仅显示一次降息。 美联储利率决议将于美东时间周三下午2点公布,主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在此后30分钟后召开新闻发布 会。 政策声明要点 预计官员们会将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间,且对5月6-7日会议后的声明仅做细微调整。鉴于5月 会议以来贸易紧张局势(尤其是中美贸易)有所缓和,政策制定者可能微调关于经济前景不确定性的表 述。 瑞安及其团队在客户报告中指出,官员们可能不再称不确定性"进一步加剧 ...
美国贸易政策对全球经济影响巨大 巴克莱:今年或会放缓但不会衰退
智通财经网· 2025-06-17 08:17
Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]
特朗普喊话美联储:降息100基点!新一任美联储主席任命结果将很快公布;这一数据暗藏隐患
第一财经· 2025-06-07 00:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]
美国费城联储主席哈克:没有根据中性利率(假设)来决定FOMC货币政策。
news flash· 2025-06-05 18:16
Core Viewpoint - The President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Harker, stated that monetary policy decisions by the FOMC are not based on a hypothetical neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker emphasized that the FOMC does not rely on a presumed neutral interest rate when making monetary policy decisions [1]