Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, import and export, and consumption. Most commodities are recommended to wait and see in the short term, and some can try light - position operations after a callback [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with weak downstream demand being the main limiting factor. Domestic cotton imports remained low in April 2025. The recent rise in Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the positive news of China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. Cotton inventory decreased well from March to April, and if the negotiations continue to improve, there may be a tight - end - of - season inventory situation. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bullish spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. In May, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane harvesting. Most international consulting companies expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil to remain high in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The import profit of sugar increased due to the continuous decline of US sugar, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market focused on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and the import volume decreased in the first quarter, but the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The market shipment in Shandong was slow, and the demand for apples decreased due to the rising temperature and the listing of seasonal fruits. The market focused on the new - season production estimate. There were differences in the production estimate due to the impact of high - temperature and windy weather in the western producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU slightly rose, NR fluctuated, and BR continued to decline. The supply of natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased. The domestic tire operation rate decreased, and the inventory of tire finished products increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - The pulp price declined today. The port inventory decreased slightly, but it was still high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was weak, and the recent rise was mainly driven by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a callback [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The supply side saw an increase in the arrival volume in China last week. The demand entered the off - season, and the port inventory decreased, but the radiation pine continued to accumulate inventory. The supply of New Zealand logs was expected to remain low, but the domestic demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

宏观 海外风险偏好回落影响市场表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 4 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，中美谈判乐观预期出 尽，叠加海外风险偏好回落，市场情绪偏弱，整体缩量。政 策方面，1 年期 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3%，5 年期以上 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3.5%，六大行及部分股份行下调人民币存款利率，幅度在 5-25bp 间。LPR 和存款利率同步下调，一方面降低居民企业融 资成本，另一方面降低银行放贷成本抬升放贷意愿，有助于二 季度实体 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,173.3 billion CNY, down by 92.9 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.88%[9] - The overall market sentiment weakened due to the exhaustion of optimistic expectations from China-US negotiations and a decline in overseas risk appetite[3] Monetary Policy - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3%, and the 5-year LPR was also reduced by 10 basis points to 3.5%[3] - Major banks adjusted deposit rates downwards by 5-25 basis points, which is expected to lower financing costs for residents and enterprises[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to finalize this year's construction project list by the end of June, potentially boosting construction activity in Q2[3] Economic Indicators - April economic data showed overall weakness, with ongoing downward pressure on housing prices, although export expectations have improved[3] - The average funding price increased slightly compared to the previous week, indicating a marginal tightening of liquidity[9] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 1.2 trillion CNY, including a 375 billion CNY increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations[9] International Market Trends - US stock markets declined, with the Dow Jones down 2.47%, S&P 500 down 2.61%, and Nasdaq down 2.47%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.51%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.98%[9] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing increased government debt and potential GDP growth slowdown due to tariff adjustments[3] Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and slower progress in China-US negotiations[3]

Group 1 - Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods stems from a belief that the US is being taken advantage of, with a trade deficit exceeding $2.5 billion annually [2][3] - The EU's refusal to accept a "10% baseline agreement" has stalled negotiations, prompting Trump to use tariffs as leverage [3][4] - The likelihood of the EU compromising on tariffs is high due to its reliance on US military support, suggesting that the final tariff will likely exceed 10% but not reach the proposed 50% [5] Group 2 - The proposed 25% tariff on Apple products led to a significant drop in Apple's stock price, with a single-day decline of over 3% [6] - If Apple were to relocate all iPhone production to the US, it could face a cost increase of over 150%, potentially reducing its profit margin to below 20% [6] - The market perceives Trump's tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than a genuine intent to harm Apple, with Apple likely to seek alternative production locations to mitigate risks [8] Group 3 - The US debt situation is characterized by a looming peak in debt repayments, with nearly $9 trillion due in 2025, including $2.2 trillion in June alone [10] - The current concern is not about short-term repayment but rather the long-term ability to refinance debt, with the national debt exceeding $36 trillion and interest payments approaching $1 trillion [12] - The demand for US Treasury bonds is decreasing due to reduced purchases from major holders like Japan and China, which could lead to higher interest rates [16][17][19] Group 4 - The potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is increasing as the bond market faces pressures similar to those seen in the UK in 2022 [21] - The US's need for foreign investment in its debt could lead to more favorable trade negotiations, as countries with significant dollar reserves may leverage their position [22] - Investors are advised to adopt a global perspective for asset allocation, as the traditional reliance on US dollar assets is becoming less viable [23][24]

Report Overview - The report is a May 23, 2025, morning report on agricultural products by Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1][3] Soybeans/Meal Core Information - Thursday saw US soybeans oscillate and close slightly higher. The new US soybean balance sheet may trend tighter under scenarios of eased trade - wars and stable production. Argentina's local production damage and excessive rainfall in US soybean - growing areas this week may support prices, but favorable rainfall in sown areas limits gains. US soybean - growing areas may face more rainfall in the central part in the next two weeks, affecting sowing. Brazilian farmers have sold over 60% of their soybeans, and the USDA expects only small increases in Brazil and Argentina's new - crop production, while US soybean production may decline slightly by 700,000 tons [3] - According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The oil mill operating rate was 63.87% yesterday, with 340,900 tons in transactions [3] Trading Strategy - Near - term, the domestic soybean supply is relatively large, but the valuation is low. US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel policies and production changes. The cost range of far - month soybean meal like 09 is currently 2850 - 3000 yuan/ton [3][5] Oils and Fats Core Information - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%, with a 22.31% increase in the first 10 days, 8.5% in the first 15 days, and 3.72% in the first 20 days. The export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, but is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days and 1.55% - 5.25% in the first 20 days. As of the week of May 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 37.38% to 178,600 tons [7] - Malaysia's palm oil stocks increased significantly in April. However, palm oil has some support due to low stocks in Indonesia, India, and China. If the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly in the medium term, oil prices will face pressure. US biodiesel policies may fall short of expectations [8][10] Trading Strategy - Oils are expected to oscillate weakly. Negative factors include the downward - trending crude oil center, obvious palm oil production recovery, and potentially under - expected US biodiesel policies. Positive factors are the low stocks of palm oil in Indonesia and India and rapeseed in Canada, which provide some support to origin quotes [11] Sugar Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices rose and then fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5885 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions also declined slightly. As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 79 from 86 the previous week, and the waiting sugar volume decreased to 3.1474 million tons from 3.5195 million tons [13] Trading Strategy - The international sugar market's tightest supply phase may have passed. In the domestic market, although the current production and sales are good, cheaper basis - priced sugar enters the market as the futures price drops. With the opening of the import profit window, future import supplies will increase, and sugar prices are likely to weaken [14] Cotton Core Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 13430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 40 yuan/ton. Brazil's cotton exports in the first three weeks of May were 101,600 tons, with an average daily export volume 15.44% lower than in May last year. As of May 18, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, up from 28% the previous week [16] Trading Strategy - Macroscopically, Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, boosting market confidence. Fundamentally, although the peak season has passed, the downstream operating rate increased slightly last week. The import window is basically closed, accelerating inventory depletion, and the 9 - 1 contract spread shows a positive arbitrage. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly and may fill the upper gap [17] Eggs Core Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in main production areas dropped 0.04 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and downstream procurement is cautious, with some inventory levels remaining high [18] Trading Strategy - With continuous increases in supply, small - sized eggs are significantly discounted compared to large - sized eggs. Market confidence is poor, inventory accumulates repeatedly, and spot prices are under pressure. Maintain the strategy of short - selling near - month contracts like 06 and 07 on rebounds and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts like 09 when positions are large [19] Pigs Core Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.24 yuan to 14.35 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.13 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg. Farms have high slaughter enthusiasm, but downstream follow - up is weak [20] Trading Strategy - Spot prices fluctuate within a narrow range and show signs of weakening. Although the weight is accumulating, considering low frozen - product and second - fattening pen occupancy, significant short - term declines are unlikely. Near - month contracts should focus on the basis regression method, while the medium - term strategy for far - month contracts is to short - sell on rebounds, but pay attention to the impact of spot prices and basis [21]

农产品日报 | 2025-05-21 白糖延续震荡，纸浆底部修复 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13395元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14465元/吨，较前一日变动-9元/吨，现货基差CF09+1070，较前一日变动-14；3128B棉全国均价14550元/吨， 较前一日变动-16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1155，较前一日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，美棉种植进度同比偏慢，德州种植进度同比亦滞后。截止5月18日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花 种植率为40%，较去年同期慢2%；近五年同期平均水平在43%，较近五年同期平均水平慢3个百分点。 市场分析 策略 中性。短期由于中美谈判超预期，市场情绪好转支撑棉价震荡偏强。但国内进入消费淡季，新年度丰产预期仍存， 当前保留关税仍处于较高水平，对出口贸易的实际利好程度或有限，棉价反弹空间或受到限制。 风险 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，中美谈判取得实质性进展，降低关税的幅度超出市场预期，中美经贸关系快 速缓和，市场情绪明显转好。不过美国对中国商品加征关税仍累计30%，再加上2018 ...

Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a recent increase of 7 basis points, with an average daily trading volume of 1.369 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 29.84% over the past week [1] - The fund's performance shows a net value growth rate of 4.23% over the past year, 12.36% over the past three years, and 24.23% since its inception [1] - This ETF is the first of its kind in the market, closely tracking the China Securities 5-year local government bond index, consisting of non-directionally issued local government bonds with remaining maturities between 4 and 5.25 years [1] Group 2 - Recent key information includes a significant easing of US-China tariff rates and stronger-than-expected export data for April, although PPI year-on-year and new credit data showed weakness, leading to a defensive phase in the bond market with rising yields [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the easing signals from US-China negotiations have led the market to adjust its previously pessimistic pricing for the second quarter, with long-term rates declining first [1] - The current overnight funding rates have returned close to policy rates, indicating a lack of downward momentum without triggering factors, and the market is awaiting catalysts for the transmission chain from funding rates to short-term and then long-term rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Apple: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Natural rubber: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international negotiations. Most commodities are recommended for temporary observation due to uncertainties in the market [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined slightly today. Spot cotton trading improved compared to yesterday but remained sluggish overall. The cotton yarn market lacked confidence but had a high willingness to hold prices [2] - In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $241.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Textile exports were $125.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, and clothing exports were $116.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [2] - Zhengzhou cotton's recent strength was driven by positive news from China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. China's cotton inventory decreased well from March to April. If the negotiations continue to improve, the end - of - season inventory may be tight [2] - It is recommended to either wait and see or try the bull spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices pulled back. In May, less rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for sugarcane crushing, and sugarcane and sugar production are expected to rise [3] - Most international consulting firms expect the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4000 tons [3] - In April, China's sugar sales data was positive. Despite the increase in production in Guangxi, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a faster sales pace, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - In the first quarter, the imports of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which is beneficial for the sales of domestic sugar. The market's trading focus has shifted to consumption and imports. The domestic sugar sales are good, and both consumption and supply are positive for sugar prices. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. As the temperature rose across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted apple demand [4] - The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas decreased, and the delivery speed slowed down. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the flower buds in the western producing areas were sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperatures and strong winds during the flowering period, which may lead to lower - than - expected production. However, there are still differences in the market's production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the prices of RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased slightly, and the butadiene rubber spot price remained stable. The export price of butadiene in the international market increased, and the price of raw materials in Thailand decreased [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and domestic and foreign production areas have fully started production. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded significantly this week [6] - The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly this week, and the finished - product inventory increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to rise to 61.87 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased slightly to 1.35 tons, while the upstream butadiene export inventory decreased significantly to 3.09 tons [6] - Overall, demand has recovered, supply has increased, inventory has continued to rise, cost - driven factors have strengthened, and market sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to be cautious and hold cross - variety arbitrage positions [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was stable at 6350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Wushubxuan pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4200 yuan/ton [7] - As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 219,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%. The domestic import inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp remained weak. The pulp imports in April decreased month - on - month, and it is expected that imports in May and June will continue to decline month - on - month. The recent price increase was mainly driven by macro factors, and its sustainability is still uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The shipping of New Zealand logs has entered the off - season, and the future arrival volume will continue to decrease, and the supply pressure will decline [8] - The peak season is gradually ending, and the log delivery volume has reached a phased high and will gradually decline. The national log inventory continued to decrease, but the inventory of radiata pine increased month - on - month because the downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the price of radiata pine lumber has started to decline, indicating a short - term oversupply [8] - Overall, demand is gradually entering the off - season, and supply is relatively sufficient. The log fundamentals are relatively weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 軟商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月15日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑将小幅下跌,国产棉现货交投一般,销售基差稳定,纯棉纱价格偏强运行,但需求一般纺企库存略有累积。国内4月份纺 跟出口表现尚可,4月我国出口纺织品服装241.86亿美元,同比增加1.1%,环比增加3.35%;共中纺织品出口125.8亿美元,同 比增加3.2%;服装出口116.07亿美元,同比减少1.17%,环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite numerous recent macro - events, the stock index showed a lackluster response. The four major broad - based indices had a pattern of rising and then falling, indicating significant short - term technical pressure. Although the progress of Sino - US talks this week exceeded market expectations, the market's one - sided rally sentiment was limited. It is expected that a retracement is needed before a second upward push. The current market situation can be compared to the second half of 2019, and it is in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with the trend remaining a sideways market. In the medium - term, there is a bullish outlook, waiting for a game - changing factor like the 2020 pandemic. [3] - In terms of portfolio, compared with the previous trade war period, China's policies have been pre - emptively implemented this time, and the easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are more substantial. It is expected that the small - cap style will be dominant, and investors can participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China took counter - measures including tariff and non - tariff measures in response to the US's unreasonable tariff hikes on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and these counter - measures remain in effect. [4] - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. In the first four months of this year, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Index盘面 Review 3.2.1 Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a differentiated upward trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.69%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15%. In terms of sectors, insurance (+5.15%) and shipping (+4.94%) led the gains, while aerospace and military industry (- 0.82%) and construction machinery (- 1.90%) lagged. More than 2300 stocks rose, and 91 stocks hit the daily limit, with a relatively poor profit - making effect. [4] 3.2.2 Technical Tracking - After the previous oversold rebound, the daily - level technical indicators of the stock index have generally recovered, while the weekly and monthly indicators still show a sideways trend. [4] 3.2.3 Fund Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, remaining above 1.3 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. Market sentiment remained cautious. The sustainability of a short - term one - sided rally is questionable, and the trading volume in the next two days needs to be observed. [4] 3.3 Core Logic Summary and Operation Suggestions 3.3.1 Core Logic Summary - The current market situation is similar to the second half of 2019, in the first stage of Sino - US negotiations, with a sideways trend. In the medium - term, it is bullish, waiting for a game - changing factor. The small - cap style is expected to be dominant. [3] 3.3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Due to the under - expected speculative sentiment, investors should respect the technical pressure. In the short - term, they can either wait and see or do intraday rolling long on IM, and increase the position appropriately when there is a sharp decline. They can also participate in the IM - IF spread when the price is low. [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of options rose and then fell yesterday. The current - month IV of the CSI 300 is around 14 - 15%. Given the low short - term volatility and the rapidly changing news, investors can continue to bet on short - term straddles, but should pay attention to short - term positions. [3]