野村：2026 年食品饮料策略 - 继续找寻细分高成长赛道 和渠道 20151223 摘要 C 端消费信心逐步恢复，细分赛道中贴近消费者的渠道增长强劲，如便 利店和会员店领跑线下销售，同比增长 4.9%，新零售模式下的即时零 售赛道也值得关注。 食品饮料板块估值处于历史低位，性价比凸显，成本端基本稳定，预计 明年原材料成本持平或下降，为企业盈利提供支撑。 酒水饮料需求承压，白酒行业面临出清和禁酒令影响，但非白酒业务中， 啤酒品类稳健，黄酒竞争格局变化显著，葡萄酒及预调酒受可选消费属 性影响承压。 饮料和乳制品差异大，头部企业如农夫山泉、东鹏饮料等功能性及健康 化产业增速快，但并非所有公司都能享受子行业高增长红利。 零食板块快速增长，但烘焙和熟食经营承压，万辰、卫龙等品牌对渠道 变化反应灵敏，带来持续增长。预加工食品如安井业绩触底反弹，餐饮 供应链公司全渠道发展。 明年（2026 年）在继续降级的周期中，如何捕捉细分渠道和品类的正增长？ 尽管整体行业承压，但依然存在许多新增的增长亮点，可能会出现非常高的个 股上涨潜力。我们认为应重个股、轻行业。具体来看，有几大趋势值得关注： 尽管社零整体承压，但仍在预期范围内。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

12月24日，长江现货1#白银单日暴涨1050元/千克，均价报17405元/千克；沪银主力合约11：30分早盘 收盘报17401元/千克，涨幅6.84%，最高触及17487元/千克；亚盘时段，国际现货白银在北京时间11： 30分报72.189美元/盎司，涨1.03%，最高位触及72.701美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录！更惊人的是，今年以 来白银累计涨幅达150%，远超黄金的72%，本月更以28%的增速"跑赢"所有贵金属。当黄金还在4500美 元/盎司高位徘徊时，白银已用"疯魔"表现证明：它不再是"黄金的影子"，而是贵金属牛市里最亮的 星。 一、白银"碾压"黄金的三大逻辑：不只是"补涨"那么简单 白银这波暴涨，绝非简单的"跟风黄金"，而是"宏观避险+工业刚需+估值修复" 的三重共振： 1. 通胀与避险"双驱动"：白银成"全能选手" 全球经济不确定性（地缘冲突、能源价格波动）推升避险需求，而通胀预期升温让白银"双重属性"发光 ——既能像黄金一样对冲货币贬值，又能因工业需求（电子、光伏）抵御"纯投机"风险。相比黄金"高 高在上"（4500美元/盎司），白银"价格亲民"（72美元/盎司），成了普通投资者"用更少钱买更多贵 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

上述积极变化正推动资本市场对央国企的价值重估逐步形成共识。数据显示，截至2025年12月19日，A 股央国企上市公司总市值约为58.46万亿元，占据A股总市值的半壁江山，较2024年年末环比上涨约 14%，增幅明显，增势延续。 尽管市值显著提升，当前央国企估值仍处于历史相对低位。数据显示，截至2025年12月19日，反映中央 企业控股上市公司证券整体表现的中证央企指数（000926）市盈率为12.30倍，反映较具创新活力的央 企上市公司证券整体表现的中证央企创新指数（000861）市盈率为14.76倍， A股央国企破净公司约为 260家，占A股破净总数约59%，未来估值修复和中枢抬升空间相对较大。 展望未来，嘉实基金认为，优质央国企有望持续提升价值创造、经营与实现能力，在经营与资本两个层 面发挥市值管理的"领头羊"作用。随着央国企投资逻辑从"主题驱动"转向"价值引领"、从"估值洼地"迈 向"价值高地"，公募基金将凭借深度研究和价值发现的专业优势，在助力优质企业市值稳步提升的同时 加强投资者回报，推动资本市场资源优化配置和健康发展的良性循环。 为帮助投资者更好把握央国企投资机遇，嘉实基金近年来持续优化和加快产品 ...

这一轮暴涨并非偶然，而是成本上升、供应短缺、政策扰动与新兴需求爆发等多重因素共振的结果。 供需双重利好 近期期货铂、钯涨势凌厉，12月以来持续爆发。广期所铂期货累计涨幅超40%，钯期货达43%，在昨日双双涨停后，今日铂 期货继续涨停，钯期货大涨5%。 众所周知，期货交易一般自带约8倍到10倍杠杆，投资者仅需少量保证金即可控制大额合约。若价格几天涨40%，按杠杆效应 计算，炒作资金实际收益达320%至400%，相当于本金翻3倍到4倍，收益被大幅放大。 在供应端，全球铂供应呈现出显著的"寡头垄断"特征，生产集中度极高，且高度依赖南非与俄罗斯两大资源国。 从产量分布来看，铂金全球矿山产量约176吨，加上回收量后总供应量为218吨。南非贡献了全球70%的产量，俄罗斯占比 12%，其余产量分散于少数国家。前五大生产商（英帕拉博业28.1%、十八页净水公司20.6%、英美铂业19.5%等）合计市场 份额高达89%，行业集中度远超多数大宗商品。 这种高度集中的供应格局，使得铂市场对单一国家或企业的扰动极为敏感。南非的电力短缺问题长期困扰矿山生产，近年来 频繁的限电导致矿山开工率不足，产量稳定性大打折扣；俄乌冲突持续影响俄罗 ...

近期期货铂、钯涨势凌厉，12月以来持续爆发。广期所铂期货累计涨幅超40%，钯期货达43%，在昨日双双涨停后，今日铂 期货继续涨停，钯期货大涨5%。 众所周知，期货交易一般自带约8倍到10倍杠杆，投资者仅需少量保证金即可控制大额合约。若价格几天涨40%，按杠杆效应 计算，炒作资金实际收益达320%至400%，相当于本金翻3倍到4倍，收益被大幅放大。 这一轮暴涨并非偶然，而是成本上升、供应短缺、政策扰动与新兴需求爆发等多重因素共振的结果。 这种高度集中的供应格局，使得铂市场对单一国家或企业的扰动极为敏感。南非的电力短缺问题长期困扰矿山生产，近年来 频繁的限电导致矿山开工率不足，产量稳定性大打折扣；俄乌冲突持续影响俄罗斯铂钯出口，西方制裁导致部分供应链中 断，进一步收紧全球供应。 此外，全球新矿山勘探与开发进度缓慢，优质资源储量减少，叠加开采难度加大、环保成本上升等因素，未来3-5年内铂钯矿 山产能难以实现大幅增长，供应端增长潜力受限。 01 供需双重利好 在供应端，全球铂供应呈现出显著的"寡头垄断"特征，生产集中度极高，且高度依赖南非与俄罗斯两大资源国。 从产量分布来看，铂金全球矿山产量约176吨，加上回收量后总 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，根据吉利汽车(00175)近期销量以及极氪私有化调整，将公司 2025-27E归母净利预测由178亿、240亿、272亿元上调至186亿、263亿、316亿元，对应PE8.8倍、6.3 倍、5.2倍。参考公司历史估值水平，综合考虑公司基本面以及行业整体趋势，给予公司2026年10倍 PE，对应目标价27.01港元，空间60%，维持"强推"评级。 华创证券主要观点如下： 销量方面，多款新车型助力下公司销量持续突破，11月实现销量31万辆，同比+24%，环比+1.1%。后 续随新车型规模化交付，以及明年吉利海外销量增长，公司总销量提升趋势延续，预计2025-27E销量 306万、370万、399万辆，同比+40%、+21%、+8%。盈利方面，以三款六座SUV为代表的中高端/高端 车型大幅提升公司产品结构，以更高的ASP和更高的毛利率有望显著带来净利总额增长。该行预计公司 2025-27E净利率5.5%、5.9%、6.4%，归母净利186亿、263亿、316亿元，其中核心归母净利润分别151 亿、253亿、306亿元(均考虑极氪私有化)。 低估值+强增长，吉利为明年整车bet ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/23 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 看多焦煤主力合约的五大理由 5.情绪修复驱动：前期空头资金持续流出后，政策利好推动盘面大幅反弹，市场情绪从悲观转向修复，技 术性反弹动能充足。操作上，中长期逢回调分批布局多单，短期严控仓位。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.估值已至低位：12月累计跌幅超20%，创下年内新低，当前价格低于蒙煤进口成本线，现货升水期货形 成安全垫，估值修复空间显著。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2.政策暖风护航：六部门发文推动煤炭清洁高效利用，《求是》强调整治"内卷式"竞争，政策引导行业 秩序改善，提振市场预期。 3.补库需求临近：钢厂焦煤库存低于往年12%，春节前冬储补库窗口将启，焦企、钢厂需补至14-15天安 ...

2025年以来，中际旭创上涨365.21%，排在涨幅榜首位；阳光电源上涨127.44%，居次席；兆易创新、 安集科技涨逾90%；信立泰、兰石重装涨逾80%；澜起科技、药明康德、科沃斯涨逾70%；盐湖股份上 涨64.22%；达仁堂、北方华创、国瓷材料涨逾50%；亿纬锂能、我武生物、宁德时代、中微公司涨逾 40%；上海家化、恒瑞医药涨逾30%；朗姿股份、中国中免、安琪酵母、中芯国际涨逾20%；豪威集 团、盾安环境、华润微、长白山等涨逾10%。 市场结构性特征明显 展望后市，星石投资认为，短期来看，今年股市整体表现较好，临近年末，市场交投情绪或保持相对稳 定，宽基指数或以震荡为主。结构上，产业消息的影响可能会阶段性放大，板块轮动或有所加快。中期 来看，明年国内企业业绩有望逐步修复，泛科技行业和传统行业均将进入业绩释放期，行情将由估值修 复逐渐走向业绩驱动，板块间结构性分化的情况有望趋于收敛。 中加基金表示，年底临近，机构资金活跃度较低。科技方向新催化持续产生，市场结构性特征显著，短 期预计市场维持以科技为核心的高位震荡行情。中期来看，科技成长仍是优势方向。当前经济基本面和 科技叙事层面并未发生根本性变化，美国仍在降 ...