Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report is concerned about oversupply in the oil market, and it anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile and weak in the short - term, with an operational suggestion of a bearish outlook on the market [2][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - China's INE crude oil futures main contract price trend and the US WTI crude oil futures continuous contract price trend are presented, but specific price trends are not detailed in the provided text. Data sources are Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [11][14] 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Analysis - **China's Crude Oil Production**: In July, China's above - scale industrial crude oil output was 18.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to July, the output was 126.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [20] - **China's Crude Oil Imports**: From January to July 2025, China's total crude oil imports were 326.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.77%. In July, imports were 47.204 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38% and a year - on - year increase of 11.52% [22] - **China's Refinery Utilization and Processing Volume**: In July, China's above - scale industrial crude oil processing volume was 63.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. From January to July, the processing volume was 424.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [25] - **US Crude Oil Production and Refinery Utilization**: As of the week ending August 22, the US daily crude oil output was 13.44 million barrels [31] - **US Oil Rig Count**: As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the number of oil drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week [34] - **US Crude Oil Inventories**: As of the week ending August 22, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 822.493 million barrels, a decrease of 1.62 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a decrease of 2.39 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 222.334 million barrels, a decrease of 1.24 million barrels; distillate inventory was 114.242 million barrels, a decrease of 1.79 million barrels [37] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand**: Goldman Sachs' report indicates that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026, the global oil market will have an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels, which will lead to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [53] - **Crude Oil Future Outlook**: The US government will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, raising the overall tax rate to 50%. India initially reduced Russian crude oil purchases but recently resumed procurement plans for September - October. Technically, oil prices will remain volatile and weak in the short - term, with an operational suggestion of a bearish outlook [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The record-high U.S. crude oil production is intensifying concerns over global supply surplus, leading to extreme bearish sentiment among traders, indicating potential sustained downward pressure on oil prices [1][8]. Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.58 million barrels per day in June, surpassing previous estimates by approximately 150,000 barrels per day [1]. - Total liquid fuel production in the U.S. hit a historical peak of 21.1 million barrels per day in June, reflecting a month-over-month increase of about 145,000 barrels [2]. - Diesel demand was revised up to approximately 4 million barrels per day, showing a 6% increase from previous estimates and an 8.3% year-over-year growth [6]. - Jet fuel demand also performed well, with revised data showing a 4.3% increase from initial estimates and a 4.2% year-over-year growth [6]. - Despite strong demand in certain segments, the broader gasoline demand average is down 1.1% year-over-year, at about 9 million barrels per day [6]. Market Sentiment - Bearish sentiment has reached historical extremes, with speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil falling to the lowest level in 18 years, down by 5,461 contracts to 24,225 contracts [7]. - The increase in short positions has driven the bearish sentiment, with WTI crude oil short positions reaching a 20-month high [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a supply surplus may emerge by the end of this year and extend into next year, with Goldman Sachs estimating a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to the end of 2026 [9]. - The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $67 per barrel in 2025, dropping to $51 per barrel by 2026 [10]. - Geopolitical risks remain a concern, particularly regarding the lack of progress in peace agreements and potential changes in the Middle East, which could lead to sudden price fluctuations [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are unlikely to see significant upward momentum this year due to increased domestic production and the threat of U.S. tariffs suppressing demand growth [1][2] - A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $67.65 per barrel in 2025, which is similar to the July forecast of $67.84 [1] - WTI crude oil is expected to average $64.65 per barrel, slightly up from the previous estimate of $64.61 [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, with expectations that they may continue to raise output [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus on market share over higher oil prices could lead to significant oversupply in the oil market in 2025 and 2026, which would depress prices [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly related to the U.S. and Russia, are expected to provide some support for oil prices despite the anticipated oversupply [2][3] Group 3 - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 500,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a growth of 680,000 barrels per day [2] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for next year while lowering estimates for supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply surplus pattern of nickel remains unchanged, and with the cost approaching, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, being easily affected by macro news [3]. - For stainless steel, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound [4]. 3. Market Analysis Nickel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 120,990 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous trading day. It fluctuated weakly around the 20 - day moving average, with a daily fluctuation range of 930 yuan/ton, 40% smaller than the previous day. Affected by the 0.26% decline of LME Nickel 3 to $15,240/ton, Shanghai nickel followed the decline, but the decline was smaller than that of the external market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remains stable. In September, 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 have completed transactions. The mine - end quotation in the Philippines remains firm. The new transaction price of downstream nickel iron is 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bullish sentiment is strengthening. The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia in September (Phase I) is expected to drop by $0.2 - 0.3, and the premium is expected to remain at +24. The current supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and Indonesian iron plants mostly stock up as needed [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market transaction of refined nickel has improved, and the premium of each brand of refined nickel has been slightly adjusted down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,013 (- 12.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,676 (456) tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,825 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. It showed the characteristics of falling price, shrinking volume, and a stalemate between long and short positions. The daily fluctuation range was only 105 yuan/ton, 30% smaller than the previous day. The trading volume decreased by about 13,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,188 lots, indicating a decline in market activity [3]. - **Spot**: As the futures market is still in the bottom - building process, the spot market is also weakening, and the spot quotation has been adjusted down. However, the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the transaction situation has not improved. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,025 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is also 13,025 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 320 - 470 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Strategy Nickel - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the cost is approaching. In the short term, nickel prices are mainly in a fluctuating market and are easily affected by macro news. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply - demand situation**: Although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the market focuses on upcoming US economic data for policy clues, with concerns about the Fed's independence. The US dollar index and Treasury yields are generally weak, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce between China and the US and increased US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled, and domestic risk appetite has significantly declined. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally but sentiment weakening. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - For assets, the stock index has corrected from its short - term high, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds are oscillating at a high level, and cautious observation is needed. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economic data in July slowed down and missed expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations reduce external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening but sentiment weakening. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The market focuses on Friday's PCE data to assess the Fed's policy path. Economists expect a 2.6% increase in PCE in July, the same as in June. After Powell's dovish signal, the market expects a more than 87% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high, but initial jobless claims rose. The increase in key capital goods orders in July exceeded expectations. The rate - cut expectation is further strengthened, providing short - term support for gold, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened, with low trading volumes. The stock market correction increased risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down the black sector. Real - world demand continued to weaken, inventories of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased, and apparent consumption declined. Supply increased slightly. Near the end of the month, there is more pressure for capital repatriation and sales. The steel market is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot price of iron ore remained flat, and the futures price declined slightly. With high steel mill profits, hot - metal production continued to decline slightly. In the next week, northern regions will have different degrees of production restrictions, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Mainstream Australian powder resources are stably supplied, but traders are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The port inventory decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is currently okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the north and 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton in the south. In the south, production is increasing, but factories are in a wait - and - see state due to the falling futures price. The price of manganese ore is weak. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton for 72 - grade natural lumps and 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. Some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. Ferroalloy prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production increased due to the return from maintenance. In the new capacity - release cycle, there is supply pressure, and the oversupply pattern remains. New devices will be put into production in the fourth quarter. High supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, and downstream demand support is still weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production and the number of operating production lines remained stable. The real - estate industry is still weak, and demand is hard to improve. Downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as the glass price fell. With stable supply and limited demand growth, glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US data shows that core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military equipment) increased by 1.1% last month. As factors such as export rush, PV pre - installation, and the marginal effect of trade - in policies decline, domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price will not last [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the aluminum price rose and then fell. There was no news for the night - session surge, which was likely driven by the copper price. The aluminum price increase was greater than that of copper, but it fell during the day as commodities weakened. Aluminum's fundamentals changed little, with social inventory increasing by 20,000 tons and a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory also continued to increase. There is limited medium - term upward space, and it will oscillate in the short term, lacking a strong downward driver but with a weakening rebound foundation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants face raw - material shortages, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [11]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mine supply is currently tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, and capacity utilization may decline. With the issuance of mining licenses, the mine supply will tend to be loose. African tin imports decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. PV pre - installation has overdrawn future demand, and new PV installations are weakening. The operating rates of PV glass and PV solder strips have declined. Overall, downstream orders are scarce. The price decline has stimulated downstream restocking, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9,278 tons, but downstream buyers are still cautious, only making purchases for immediate needs. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium - carbonate contract 2511 fell by 0.23%, with a new settlement price of 80,000 yuan/ton and a reduction of 3,104 lots in weighted contracts, and a total position of 757,900 lots. The battery - grade lithium - carbonate price is 79,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the industrial - grade is 78,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 920 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The profit from purchasing lithium spodumene for production is 1,988 yuan/ton. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract 2511 fell by 1.56%, with a new settlement price of 8,540 yuan/ton, a position of 516,800 lots in weighted contracts, and a reduction of 9,286 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price is at a discount of 775 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 250 yuan/ton. Recently, black metals and polysilicon have weakened, and industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 fell by 4.89%, with a new settlement price of 49,715 yuan/ton, a position of 334,600 lots in weighted contracts, and an increase of 14,137 lots. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the P - type cauliflower - like material is 30,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.24 yuan/piece (unchanged), the M10 single - crystal TOPCon battery is 0.292 yuan/watt (unchanged), and the 210mm N - type module is 0.68 yuan/watt (unchanged). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased to 6,880, reflecting increased hedging pressure. The polysilicon output in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It broke through support in the short term, with a bearish direction. Attention should be paid to the spot support below [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US crude and fuel inventories decreased, alleviating concerns about imminent supply over - capacity. Although the absolute price is still in a range, the spread of WTI has widened to the largest in over a week, and Cushing inventory decreased for the first time in 8 weeks, with a national inventory reduction of 2.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The US increased tariffs on some Indian goods, but Indian refineries plan to maintain most purchases, so short - term supply concerns are hard to ease, and there is still significant medium - and long - term downward pressure on oil prices [16]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price decreased slightly as the market followed the decline of anti - involution leading varieties. The asphalt spot market has slightly recovered, and the decline of the basis has paused. However, social and factory inventories have not significantly decreased, and profits have slightly recovered with a significant increase in production. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. With limited inventory reduction, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term [16]. - **PX**: After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, the tight PX situation will provide obvious support at the bottom. Benefiting from petrochemical capacity adjustment, but with the PX plant load at a medium - low level, it is still in a tight pattern in the short term. The PXN spread is currently 266 US dollars, and the PX overseas price has rebounded to 864 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price decreased with position reduction as the market declined. However, domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments have stabilized the energy - chemical sector in the short term. The temporary shutdown of the Huizhou plant due to environmental requirements provides some support, and the basis remains at +30. Downstream production has recovered to 90%, and the restocking pace has accelerated before the peak season. PTA may have a slight inventory reduction in September and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol gave back some previous gains and oscillated narrowly in the short term. Port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. Domestic restrictions on petrochemical capacity and new - project approvals will limit supply. However, the basis has not significantly recovered. The increase in downstream production will support ethylene glycol at the bottom, but the supply pressure is still large after the resumption of synthetic - gas - based plants. It is necessary to wait for verification of peak - season demand. When going long at low prices, attention should be paid to crude - oil cost fluctuations [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly as the sector declined. Terminal orders have seasonally increased, and short - fiber production has slightly rebounded, with limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in production. In the medium term, short - fiber can be short - sold along with the polyester sector [18]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have pressured the price. As the port price falls, the back - flow window is about to open, providing some support for the spot. MTO plants plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. The methanol fundamentals show marginal improvement, but the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the price is expected to oscillate [18]. - **PP**: The increase in plant operation and upcoming new capacity have increased supply pressure. Downstream production has slightly increased, and demand is showing signs of recovery. There is significant fundamental pressure, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season stocking [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing a turning point. The "supply - side" speculation provides some price support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish. Attention should be paid to demand and stocking [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1048.25, down 1.25 or 0.12% (settlement price 1047.50). The weather in the US core soybean - producing areas in August has been favorable, and the overall soybean quality rate remains high. With the increasing likelihood of a US soybean harvest, the futures price is under pressure. Market news indicates that China will send a delegation to the US for trade negotiations this week, boosting US soybean export expectations. Additionally, increased US Treasury bond selling and a weaker US dollar provide some macro - level support for US soybeans [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure on domestic oil mills to accumulate soybean and soybean meal inventories has eased. Market news suggests that this week's China - US trade negotiations will focus on soybean purchases, further stabilizing supply expectations. In the third quarter, preventive purchases have ensured sufficient soybean supply, but supply may tighten in the fourth quarter, with stable cost - based support. Rapeseed meal currently has high - inventory circulation pressure, but with low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases, there is still potential for price increases. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [21]. - **Edible Oils**: The port inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing. With few imported rapeseed purchases and low inventory in China, the supply is expected to contract strongly. The cost expectation of soybean oil has strengthened, and a low - valuation price increase is expected. The palm oil production cycle is in progress, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. There is no short - term incremental consumption expectation from policies, and the bullish market may enter an oscillation phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The arrival of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased over the weekend, and enterprise prices were slightly reduced. In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn will increase, and the C2511 contract has entered the price range of last year's opening price, 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. There is no pressure from a large - scale arrival as in last year, with low carry - over inventory and the risk of excessive rainfall in the main producing areas. Although the planting cost has decreased this year, due to policies to stabilize the prices of important agricultural products and increase farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's price range. The futures price is currently in a relatively undervalued range, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [22]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs for slaughter is sufficient, and slaughterhouses have low purchasing pressure. The reduction in supply in some provinces has a limited impact on enterprise purchases, with a slight upward trend. There may be local emotional - driven price increases in the north tomorrow. In the south, demand supports the price, and the market is stable. Currently, secondary fattening is generally cautious, with limited restocking. As a result, the buffer space for large - scale future slaughter is reduced, and market pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook is increasing [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. However, if demand doesn't improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall [1]. Alumina - The overall supply of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. Although cost and some factory overhauls provide support, the spot and futures prices are under pressure. The main contract reference range is 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and short - term downward and upward spaces are limited [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are marginally improving. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [3]. Copper - Copper prices are at least expected to remain volatile. The price may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes of copper resonate. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. Upward continuous rebound requires better - than - expected demand, and downward breakthrough needs ultra - strong TC and continuous inventory accumulation [8]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to be adjusted within a range. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. The market has cost support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. The market is still restricted by weak spot demand, and the cost support remains [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton. The supply - side news is not fully confirmed, and the improved fundamentals provide support for the price [14]. Tin - Tin prices have risen due to the dovish signal from the Fed. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton; the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: The average price of alumina in Shandong is 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.31%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton (0.24%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.16%); the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton (- 0.97%); the spread between 2509 - 2511 is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 270000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (0.11%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In July, aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month; the aluminum profile production rate was 50.5%, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Alumina**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the daily average production exceeded 260,000 tons, a record high [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.5 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.6 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [3]. - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [4]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel**: In July, the production of refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 7.3 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,100 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [14]. - **Tin**: In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [17].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the seventh price cut of the year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - From August 26, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced 17 adjustment windows, resulting in a net decrease of 405 yuan for gasoline and 390 yuan for diesel compared to the end of last year [1] - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The average price of reference crude oil was reported at $65.07 per barrel with a change rate of -3.90% as of August 26 [2] - Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand, with the International Energy Agency lowering the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast and increasing the supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine situation, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for oil is anticipated to decline as the summer driving season comes to an end, while OPEC+ production increases and US oil production rises [2] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may boost global fuel demand, but geopolitical uncertainties will likely continue to cause volatility in international oil prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, influenced more by macro - sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend in the near future, facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support" and being greatly affected by macro - policies and news [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton and closed at 120,310 yuan/ton, up 0.59% from the previous trading day. Affected by the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, the futures market continued to strengthen. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The overall trading activity in the nickel ore market was at a medium level, and the mainstream prices remained stable. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the (Phase II) August nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased slightly, and the current mainstream domestic trade premium remained at +24. The (Phase I) September domestic trade premium is under negotiation, and it is expected to remain the same as before [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums of various brands were stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,292 (- 260.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,748 (150) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel price trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 25, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,880 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic real estate policies, the futures market strengthened. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [3]. - **Spot**: Boosted by the futures price rebound, market confidence recovered. Traders' quotes were stronger, and the downstream and middlemen's inquiry enthusiasm increased. The actual trading volume showed an upward trend. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,075 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 340 - 490 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The stainless steel market is facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support". It is expected that the price will continue the range - bound trend in the near future. Trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both the pure benzene and styrene markets show characteristics of being "strong in the short - term and pressured in the medium - term." Pure benzene may face dual pressure from domestic production and imports after September, leading to a mid - term decline. Styrene's mid - term price increase is limited due to supply surplus [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On August 22, the styrene main contract closed up 1.22% at 7378 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 (- 29 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.13% at 6208 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On August 22, Brent crude oil closed at 63.5 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 67.7 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6090 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), an 8.5% month - on - month increase. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 million tons (-0.2 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Supply**: There will be styrene plant maintenance at the end of August, and supply may decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 million tons (+0.2 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+0.3%) [2] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS is 71.1% (+0%), and PS is 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous recovery [2] (2) Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short - term, it is relatively firm due to supply - side disturbances and low imports. However, after September, the market may decline due to domestic and import pressures [3] - **Styrene**: It shows short - term strength but medium - term pressure. Although there are some bright spots in demand, it cannot fully offset the pressure from new production capacity [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot have different changes, and the prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil have increased [6] - **Output and Inventory**: The outputs of styrene and pure benzene in China have increased, styrene port inventory has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and pure benzene port inventory has decreased [7] - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed. For example, the capacity utilization rate of styrene has increased, and the capacity utilization rates of EPS and PS among styrene downstream products have increased [8] 3. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced resistance, causing international oil prices to rise; global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains; India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides various data charts related to the prices, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and styrene [14][17][19]