1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - **Main Logic**: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - **Main Logic**: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - **Main Logic**: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - **View**: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - **Main Logic**: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - **View**: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - **View**: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: After the China-US summit, the risk aversion sentiment may continue to cool down. Although the US government is still shut down, the buying power of gold remains strong. Gold may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and investors should adopt a range - trading mindset. Pay attention to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a mix of long - term supply surplus pressure and short - term positive factors. Short - term positive factors include last week's favorable EIA inventory data, US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the trade relaxation agreement reached after the China - US meeting in Busan, South Korea. Wait for the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The counter - cyclical policy continues to be intensified, and the economic recovery has strong resilience, which is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. Open - market treasury bond trading, liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect make bond market operations more difficult. Adopt a slightly bullish trading mindset in the medium term [4]. - **Silver**: Positive information from the China - US talks and better - than - expected economic recovery in the eurozone increase risk appetite and boost silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [4]. - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, providing solid support on the demand side. However, with new plants starting trial operations, the expectation of weakening supply - demand is strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices weakens the cost support. The PTA market may decline slightly in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Rubber**: China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which provides medium - term support. With the reduction of macro - pressure, the market is expected to move upward. Adopt a bullish trading mindset at low levels [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The national live pig price mainly declined yesterday. After the price continued to rise, the terminal acceptance is poor, and the entry of second - fattening pigs decreased significantly. The price may fluctuate weakly in the near future. However, the slaughter pressure of farmers at the end of the month is not large, and the demand is slowly improving, providing short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As the end - of - month export and production data of Malaysian palm oil are about to be released, the market pays high attention. The fundamentals of palm oil are expected to improve in November. Palm oil will have bottom support and fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and the low - inventory status of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of rapeseed meal price decline. With the stagnation of domestic rapeseed crushing and low oil mill operating rates, it is recommended to buy at low levels. Pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly. The methanol market in Jiangsu shows inventory reduction, and the inland market price declines. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2225. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply remaining at a high level. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [9]. - **Plastic**: On the supply side, the number of temporary shutdowns of LLDPE plants increases, production proportion decreases, and production enterprise inventory declines. On the demand side, although the peak season is not prosperous, downstream factory operations increase, and they maintain just - in - time replenishment. The cost support weakens. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias in the short term, with support at 6930. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Product Category Metals - **Gold**: After the China - US summit, risk aversion cools, but gold buying power is strong. Medium - term high - level fluctuation [1]. - **Silver**: Positive China - US talks and better - than - expected eurozone economic recovery boost silver. Bullish bias [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Long - term supply surplus and short - term positive factors coexist. Wait for OPEC+ meeting results [2]. Bonds - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Counter - cyclical policy intensifies, and economic resilience is strong. Bond market operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is low, but new plants and weakening crude oil prices may lead to a short - term decline [5]. - **Methanol**: High production, stable demand, and slightly fluctuating inventory. Short - term weak fluctuation [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Stable float glass operation and decreasing inventory. Soda ash market is stable, with short - term fluctuation [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply reduction and demand increase, with weakening cost support. Slightly bullish short - term fluctuation [10]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Price decline and short - term support due to end - of - month factors [6]. - **Palm Oil**: End - of - month data attention and improving fundamentals in November. Short - term bottom - supported fluctuation [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply shortage and low inventory. Recommended to buy at low levels [7]. - **Rubber**: Declining inventory and reduced macro - pressure. Bullish at low levels [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global cocoa market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus by the 2025/2026 season, as indicated by recent reports from major institutions like Rabobank and Fitch Solutions [4][6]. Supply Side - The end of the El Niño phenomenon, which caused disastrous harvests in West Africa, is being replaced by La Niña, leading to more stable rainfall in key cocoa-producing regions like Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. This climatic shift is expected to increase cocoa bean production in the 2025/26 season [8]. - High cocoa prices in 2024, despite limited profits for farmers, have encouraged some reinvestment in farming practices, including increased use of fertilizers and pesticides, which may boost production [8]. Demand Side - The high prices of cocoa have led to a significant decline in global chocolate sales by volume in 2025, as consumers and brands are deterred by retail prices [10]. - Brands are forced to permanently alter their recipes to reduce expensive cocoa content, substituting with cheaper fillers like nuts, wafers, caramel, and palm oil [10]. Price Dynamics - Despite the anticipated surplus, chocolate prices are unlikely to decrease in the near term due to several factors: - Brands are still clearing out high-cost inventory purchased at prices around $10,000 per ton [16]. - Price rigidity means that once prices have increased, they rarely decrease, as consumers have accepted higher price points [16]. - Brands are focused on recovering profit margins that were squeezed by high costs over the past year, rather than passing savings onto consumers [18]. Conclusion - The transition from high prices to surplus presents different outcomes for various stakeholders: - Farmers may face new challenges as they have increased investments without yet seeing profits [22]. - Brands are entering a period of profit recovery after enduring high costs [22]. - Consumers may see a pause in the trend of "shrinkflation," where product sizes decrease without a corresponding price drop [22]. - Overall, the industry may have entered a "high-price chocolate" era, with little hope for significant price reductions in the future [24].

纯碱期货价格自7月底创出新高后，重回下跌趋势，至今已有3个月。其中，2601合约价格从最高1530元 ／吨，下跌至最低1194元／吨，跌幅22%。近期，纯碱期货价格跟随宏观情绪回暖略有反弹，这是否预 示行情将要触底呢？从供应端来看，随着新建产能陆续投放，纯碱产能持续增长，但需求端没有太大的 改善，甚至出口还有下滑的迹象。纯碱供应过剩局势加剧，未来价格预计易跌难涨。 供应过剩加剧 今年"金九银十"旺季成色不足，玻璃库存持续大幅累积，下游开工萎靡不振。据钢联数据，截至10月28 日，浮法玻璃日产量为161275吨，近一个月维持稳定；光伏玻璃日产量为88680吨，相比上周的89980吨 下降1300吨。浮法与光伏玻璃日产总量略有下降，重碱国内需求仍无起色。 从厂内库存细分数据来看，截至10月24日当周，重碱厂内库存为93.45万吨，基本维持稳定；但轻碱连 续3周累库，库存从69.67万吨增加至76.76万吨，创历史同期新高，表明轻碱下游需求也没有太大的改 善。重碱和轻碱库存均没有好转，出口也在下降，导致纯碱总库存继续累积。 碱厂减产动力不足 目前，碱厂虽然陷入亏损，但亏损幅度较小，远远未到促使碱厂主动减产的幅度，仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - **PP**: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP - **Inter - term**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Core Viewpoint - In November, the domestic wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel are expected to remain weak due to ongoing supply surplus expectations and the easing of China-U.S. tariff tensions, with macro sentiment supporting a continued weak trend in international oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is anticipated to experience a weak trend in international oil prices as supply surplus expectations persist [1] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is contributing to a recovery in macro sentiment, which may influence oil price movements [1] Group 2: Demand Analysis - As the outdoor infrastructure projects enter the year-end rush, there may be a short-term improvement in oil demand from the logistics transportation sector [1] - However, limited demand for diesel is expected due to declining temperatures in northern regions, which may restrict terminal demand [1] - Gasoline demand is projected to remain stable and subdued, lacking support from holiday travel, with public driving primarily for daily commuting [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - Diesel wholesale prices are expected to face downward pressure, while gasoline wholesale prices may experience fluctuations leading to a potential decline [1]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 265 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from October 27, marking the ninth price cut of the year [1] - The price adjustments translate to a decrease of approximately 0.21 yuan/liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 yuan/liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan/liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in a savings of 10.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline [1] - The overall trend for 2025 shows "six increases, nine decreases, and six stabilities" in domestic refined oil price adjustments, with cumulative reductions of 745 yuan/ton for gasoline and 715 yuan/ton for diesel [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency's latest report heightened concerns about oversupply, projecting a global oil supply increase of 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, with upward revisions of 300,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical factors briefly supported oil prices, with concerns over Russian oil exports due to sanctions and slow progress in ceasefire talks, but these factors had limited impact on the domestic refined oil market [2] - Since July, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have shown a downward trend, with no significant improvement in demand during the traditional peak consumption season, leading to cautious procurement strategies among end-users and traders [2] Group 3 - The current market outlook suggests that refineries face sales pressure, and short-term pricing policies will focus on "volume-price coordination," making substantial price increases unlikely [3] - Concerns over economic slowdown due to escalating global trade tensions and the onset of the oil consumption off-season are expected to continue suppressing demand in the oil market [3] - Short-term international oil prices are likely to remain in a low consolidation phase, but the new pricing cycle has begun positively, which may provide some support to market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the recent reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China, effective from October 27, with gasoline prices decreasing by 265 yuan per ton and diesel by 255 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.21 to 0.22 yuan per liter for consumers [1] - The international oil market has experienced fluctuations, with initial price declines due to warnings of oversupply and potential reductions in Russian oil imports by India, followed by a rebound due to U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2] - The overall global oil market is currently characterized by a supply surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and high export levels from countries like Russia, while demand forecasts remain conservative due to anticipated global economic slowdowns [2] Group 2 - The next price adjustment window for oil is set to open on November 10, 2025, with expectations of potential price increases due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing sanctions against Russia [3] - Analysts predict that the combination of U.S.-China trade negotiations showing positive progress and the instability in geopolitical situations may lead to a higher probability of price increases in the next round of oil price adjustments [3]

央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于10月27日24时下调。据国家发展改革委价格 监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（10月13日—10月24日）国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势。 总体将维持宽幅震荡走势 调价周期内，国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势，平均水平较上一轮调价周期大幅下降。前期，受以色列和巴勒斯坦达成停火协议、胡塞武装与美国达成 红海休战协议影响，中东地缘政治紧张局势趋缓，油市风险溢价有所削减。与此同时，全球经贸环境不确定性上升，加之"欧佩克+"持续增产，使得国际油 价进一步走低。以伦敦布伦特原油期货价格为例，最低降至每桶61美元左右，为近半年来低位。后期，美国加大对俄罗斯两大石油公司制裁，市场认为这将 影响印度从俄罗斯原油进口。同时，俄乌冲突持续，美俄原定将举行的峰会推迟。受此影响，国际油价快速回升，目前伦敦布伦特油价在每桶65美元左右波 动。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心认为，当前巴以、俄乌局势不稳定性较大，欧美对部分产油国制裁政策延续，这将对短期油价提供支撑并加大波动幅度。但全 球原油市场处于供应过剩格局较难改变，国际能源署最新《 ...

Group 1 - The international crude oil market experienced a rebound after hitting a nearly five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.42 per barrel, up over 5% for the week, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.87 per barrel, up over 7% [1] - The rebound was driven by two main factors: a recovery demand following a prolonged decline in oil prices and rising geopolitical risks, particularly due to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russian oil companies [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, coinciding with the EU's approval of its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, leading to concerns about supply disruptions in the oil market [1] Group 2 - Recent inventory data from EIA and API indicated a decline in U.S. commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with a slight recovery in refinery utilization and crude processing [2] - Current U.S. crude oil inventories are down 0.75% year-on-year and 4% lower than the five-year average, while gasoline and distillate inventories are also below historical levels [2] - Analysts suggest that despite predictions of a significant supply surplus in the global oil market next year, the current spot market remains relatively strong, influenced by OPEC+ production not meeting expectations and potential underestimation of demand [2] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a phase of short-term geopolitical advantages versus long-term supply-demand fundamentals, with ongoing OPEC+ production increases not leading to a significant decline in U.S. oil output [2] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on the market's ability to recover from recent disruptions, including Russia's response to sanctions and the stance of buyers like India [2] - Overall, while the trend for oil prices in the fourth quarter is expected to shift downward, high volatility is anticipated, requiring traders to manage positions carefully [2]