文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美债利率异常波动的核心驱动事件是美国减税法案及日债需求走弱。 在二者的影响下，美债利率5月份 出现三次大幅异常上升。从根源上看，此次美债下跌源自减税引发的债务可持续担忧，但5月20日，日债 拍卖走弱大幅加速了美债利率上涨，导致美债与美元走势明显分化。 美债期限溢价升至新高，反应了财政、通胀、货币和交易的扰动。 美债期限溢价去年10月转正，至5月 22日升至0.9%，成为影响利率走势的主导因素。4月30日以来，10年美债利率上升37BP，其中期限溢价 上升28BP，短端实际利率预期上涨11BP，期限溢价贡献达七成。 （二）《美丽大法案》的进展及争议？2026年赤字率或挑战8%，但对经济的边际贡献有限 共和党在参议院仅有三个席位优势，《美丽大法案》能否按期通过存在不确定性。 法案现已递交参议 院，各委员会或在6月上旬进行审议，6月中旬前后举行全体投票。若参议院对法案进行较大修改，需众 议院再次投票、或与参院"协调"消除分歧——集中在医疗补助、SALT领域。 法案以延续TCJA减税为主体，经济影响可类比2010年奥巴马延长减税政策，增量提振效果或较为有限。 延长现 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 大类资产&海外事件&数据：众议院通过减税法案，市场再现"股债汇"三杀 美国再现"股债汇"三杀，金价再度"异军突起"。 当周，纳指下跌2.5%，日经225下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行8bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌1.8%至99.12，离岸人民币升至7.1722；WTI原油下跌1.5%至61.5美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3351.0美元/盎司。 美国众议院通过减税法案。 5月22日，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势通过了《美丽大 法案》，法案旨在永久延续2017年《减税与就业法案》中的多项减税措施，并引入新的税收优惠。该法 案已提交参议院，共和党计划将在7月4日之前完成表决。 5月美国Markit制造业、服务业PMI反弹，日本4月核心CPI升温。 美国5月Markit制造业、服务业PMI均 提升至 52.3，前值分别为50.2、50.8，或反映中美关税缓和影响；4月日本CPI同比3.6%，核心通胀（剔除 食品、能源口径）同比3.0%，后者维持上升趋势。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][3][7] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" aims to extend tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an expected increase in the deficit rate by approximately 1.8 percentage points by 2026, despite the limited marginal economic contribution [3][29][40] - The Act's passage faces uncertainty in the Senate, where the Republican majority is slim, and potential modifications could require further voting in the House [3][29] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with an estimated deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over ten years, which cannot be offset by the anticipated $2.5 trillion in new tariffs [3][40] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to a rise of approximately 78 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][50] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.5% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation[2] - Since April 30, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 37 basis points (bps), with the term premium contributing 28 bps to this rise[2] - The term premium reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors[2] Group 2: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Beautiful Act" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the deficit rate to approximately 8% by 2026, although its marginal economic contribution is limited[3] - The Act extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of its provisions aimed at prolonging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) measures, effective from January 1, 2026[3] - The projected increase in the deficit rate due to the Act is estimated at 1.8 percentage points, with a total deficit increase of around $3.3 trillion over the next decade[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has witnessed a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Nasdaq down 2.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 8 bps to 4.51%[5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.12, while gold prices surged by 5.0% to $3,351.0 per ounce amid market volatility[5] - The correlation between the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit leading to an approximate 78 bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield[3]

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

昨夜，市场已然硝烟弥漫。 美股持续震荡，最后半小时急速跳水，由涨转跌。 这主要是因为川普的减税法案加剧了财政赤字。 川普为了通过这项法案，不仅威胁称不通过此案将是对共和党议程的最终背叛，并且 甚至亲自出面说服党内反对的议员。 然后经过连夜的辩论，在黎明时分，法案以 215：214 的票数结果惊险通过。下一步，该法案将提交到参议院审议。 川普称其 为"一个伟大美丽的法案" ， 价值数万亿美元。 据悉，此法案的篇幅超过1000页，我帮大家梳理了下三点核心内容： 一是延长川普在第一任期内提出的减税条款； 二是对小费、汽车贷款等提供新的税收减免； 三是增加国防支出，并为打击移民提供更多资金。 川普说了，这项法案主要目的就是提振经济。 川普给出的逻辑很简单，给人民减税，大家手里有钱了就会去消费，给企业减税，企业就会扩产。 计划 在未来十年内，此法案能减税超过4万亿美元，并 削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。 川普的所有政策可以总结成一句话十二个字：对外加税、对内减税、放松监管。 问题在于，现在对外加税的效果一般，而减税的另一面就是政府收入减少，这样赤字就会更加严重。 这次在减少开支方面也有新的动作，主要是在削减福利上： 法案 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill with a narrow margin, which has sparked controversy due to significant cuts to social security funding and concerns over increasing federal deficits [1][2][3] - The bill aims to extend tax cuts from Trump's first term, provide new tax deductions, increase defense spending, and allocate more funds for immigration enforcement while cutting green energy incentives and raising eligibility thresholds for medical assistance and food aid [1][2] Group 1 - The bill includes a reduction of nearly $800 billion in medical assistance funding, which is expected to have a significant political risk as it affects a large portion of the population relying on this program for health insurance [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the bill becomes law, the lowest 10% of households will see a decrease in resources, while the highest 10% will benefit [2] - The bill is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3 trillion compared to a baseline scenario where Trump's tax cuts would not be extended [3] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenses [3] - The bond market has shown volatility, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.15%, reflecting investor concerns over the federal government's debt issues [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for the government to adhere to fiscal discipline, warning that the current deficit levels are unsustainable [4]

智通财经APP获悉，若想推动参议院通过第二任期核心立法议程，唐纳德·特朗普不得不直面更严苛的"选民"——日益膨胀的美国国债持有者。这 位总统刚在众议院以微弱优势通过特朗普"大而美"减税法案，却可能陷入参议院更复杂的博弈：蓝州共和党人就税收优惠讨价还价，保守派议员 在支出问题上临阵倒戈，而债券市场正用收益率飙升发出赤字警报。 据了解，法案通过过程充满戏剧性：为争取纽约、加州等高税州共和党人支持，2017年税改中设定的州和地方税抵扣上限从1万美元被抬升至4万 美元。但周三30年期美债收益率跳涨12个基点，为共和党强硬派提供了新筹码。俄亥俄州议员沃伦·戴维森作为两名反对者之一表示："债券市场 已表明态度。" 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩定下6月攻坚时间表，但强调最终法案必须"实质性削减支出"。无党派国会预算办公室此前预警，即便没有新税改， 2029年债务/GDP比也将创历史新高。穆迪在降级声明中直言，美国经济实力"难以抵消财政指标恶化"。 图1 众议院通过的法案包含针对小费工作者、购车族、老年人等关键选民群体的税收减免，但参议院共和党人已放出削减开支的风声。南卡罗来纳州 议员拉尔夫·诺曼直言："我们需要多少次警钟才能 ...

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Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]