Core Viewpoint - The market has shown resilience despite challenges, with significant performance from major banks and small-cap stocks, suggesting a strategic investment approach combining stability and growth potential [3][5][7]. Group 1: Bank Stocks as a Stable Foundation - Bank stocks have proven to be the most stable asset class this year, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) consistently reaching new historical highs [5]. - The low interest rate environment, with one-year deposit rates entering the "0" era, has made bank stocks attractive due to their dividend yields of 4%-6%, with the Bank AH Index yielding around 6.5% [6]. - Long-term funds, such as insurance and social security, have shown significant interest in bank stocks, with insurance capital making 10 purchases of bank stocks this year and southbound funds net buying over 200 billion in bank stocks in the past year [6]. Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks as Growth Drivers - Small-cap stocks are sensitive to funding and tend to rebound quickly when market sentiment improves, making them effective growth instruments in a low-interest and liquidity-friendly environment [7]. - Government policies are favorable towards small-cap stocks, encouraging technological mergers and acquisitions and supporting innovation in small and medium enterprises [7]. Group 3: Combined Strategy of Banks and Small-Cap Stocks - The combination of bank stocks as a foundation and small-cap stocks for growth captures the benefits of both asset classes, with banks benefiting from high dividend asset revaluation and small-caps benefiting from declining interest rates and policy support [8]. - This strategy has demonstrated strong performance, significantly outperforming the market, with a combination return exceeding 49% and a maximum drawdown of only about 13% [3][8]. Group 4: Advantages of the Selected ETFs - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) uniquely packages high-quality bank stocks from both A and H markets, utilizing a rotation strategy to capture excess returns from valuation differences [9]. - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the Bank AH Total Return Index has increased by 89.81%, outperforming the China Securities Bank Total Return Index, which rose by 62.94% [9]. - The 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680) and the China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have also shown strong performance, with the latter gaining approximately 22.1% this year, significantly outperforming both the CSI 300 and the CSI 2000 Index [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Sino-US London negotiation, the trading focus of the bond market has returned to domestic factors. The current monetary policy has become loose, and there is a strong expectation of further easing in Q3. However, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound due to macro uncertainties [1][14]. - The central bank's policy intervention has changed the "trend bull" to an "oscillating bull" in the bond market. With the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade negotiation timeline and July being a potential policy announcement window, the bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short term. Given the strong performance of the stock market this year, the bond market is expected to remain high and oscillate [2][30]. - The trading difficulty in the bond market increases with more macro uncertainties. It is recommended to capture short - term bullish opportunities and use arbitrage strategies while being cautious about short - term bond market risks caused by changes in market risk appetite [2][30]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weak Fundamentals and Oscillation 3.1.1 Inflation and Growth Recovery Require Greater Policy Efforts - Since the beginning of the year, the Treasury bond futures market has been volatile with high - level oscillations. The central bank intervened in February to prevent excessive interest rate decline and capital idling, leading to a monthly correction in the bond market. Subsequently, medium - and long - term allocation funds bought when the 30Y interest rate rose by more than 20bp, stabilizing the market. The bond market then fluctuated due to Sino - US trade conflicts [5]. - The macro - fundamental situation remains at the bottom with oscillations. Exports have been affected by the Sino - US trade war, and domestic demand recovery is not significant. There is an "asset shortage" in RMB assets, and the structure has changed compared to the past two years. If external Fed rate cuts accelerate and internal policies stimulate the economy, the stock market may see a mid - term recovery; otherwise, the risk - free interest rate may continue to decline [6][7]. 3.1.2 Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Seat Analysis - After the Sino - US London negotiation, the bond market trading focus is back on domestic factors. The current monetary policy is loose, and there is a strong expectation of further easing in Q3. However, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound due to macro uncertainties. The central bank's next focus is to boost inflation, promote growth, and reduce costs, but attention should be paid to market expectation reversals and changes in risk appetite [14]. - Currently, the trading volume of the 12 - contract is limited, and the short - term inter - delivery spread may be positively correlated with the market. The basis has converged during the repair process since early June, and the market has a demand for profit - taking in positive hedging. The curve structure has limited factors to support long - term steepening, and the steepening space may be reduced [15]. - Since June, the net long position in the market has increased slightly, indicating cautious market sentiment. After a slight upward oscillation of each contract recently, it may reach the upper limit of the stage range. Caution should be exercised against emotional disturbances [16]. 3.2 The Downward Trend of the Long - Term Interest Rate Center Remains Unchanged, but the Short - Term Rhythm Varies 3.2.1 The Downward Trend of the Long - Term Interest Rate Remains Unchanged - Since 2015, China's interest rates have generally shown a downward trend, with three upward periods lasting more than a quarter. The duration and amplitude of these upward periods have been decreasing. The current passive de - stocking period has lasted nearly 28 months, longer than the previous cycle. If fiscal policy remains "supportive but not aggressive", the long - term interest rate center will continue to decline [26]. 3.2.2 Market Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - The central bank's policy intervention has changed the bond market from a "trend bull" to an "oscillating bull". With the uncertainty of the Sino - US trade negotiation timeline and July being a potential policy announcement window, the bond market is expected to oscillate or rise slightly in the short term. The view that the bond market will remain high and oscillate is maintained. Trading difficulty increases, and it is recommended to capture short - term bullish opportunities and use arbitrage strategies while being cautious about short - term risks [2][30].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics influenced by **geopolitical conflicts** and **monetary policy** adjustments. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Liquidity and Monetary Policy** - Current liquidity is relatively abundant, supported by the central bank's reverse repos and net injections, alleviating market concerns ahead of the half-year mark [1][3][4] - The new interest rate corridor has been established, with DR001's quarterly fluctuations between OMO -20 and OMO +50, indicating potential downward trends in interest rates [1][3] 2. **Geopolitical Impact on Monetary Policy** - Uncertainties in the global political landscape, including U.S.-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to influence central bank policies, potentially leading to a loosening of monetary policy [1][5] - The macroeconomic data for June is anticipated to peak, with subsequent weakness providing justification for easing measures [1][5] 3. **Future Interest Rate Predictions** - A trend of declining interest rates is predicted from June to September 2025, with potential rate cuts in August or September leading to mid-to-long-term bond fund yields of 2.5% to 3% [1][4][5] - If a rate cut occurs, it could result in an increase of 15 to 20 basis points, translating to approximately 1% performance growth [5] 4. **Market Liquidity Conditions** - The current liquidity situation in the bond market is favorable, with major banks' lending reaching annual highs, indicating no lack of liabilities [3][7] - Despite the liquidity, market interest rates remain above 1.65%, with a focus on the demand side, particularly from traditional commercial banks [7] 5. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Asset Classes** - Historical trends show that geopolitical conflicts typically raise gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields while affecting the Chinese bond market differently due to domestic pricing mechanisms [8] - The impact of geopolitical tensions on economic growth, inflation, and external balance pressures is complex, with both positive and negative implications for the bond market [8] 6. **Outlook for Credit Bond Market** - The credit bond market is viewed positively despite geopolitical tensions, with recommendations to maintain a bullish stance [2][11][10] Other Important Insights - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum and the Politburo meeting at the end of July are expected to provide favorable news that could further drive interest rates down [6] - The unusual behavior of the U.S. dollar index during recent geopolitical events suggests a weakening of its safe-haven status, which may provide more room for Chinese monetary policy [9][10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and monetary policy in China, particularly regarding the central bank's actions and their implications for interest rates and economic support. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repo operations are stabilizing market expectations, with a potential for further rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth [1][3][8] - A 10 basis point rate cut has already occurred in Q2, with expectations for additional cuts in Q3 [1][3][8] 2. **Market Expectations and Bond Purchases** - Large purchases of short-term bonds by major banks may indicate the central bank's intention to restart bond-buying operations, which could lead to lower interest rates [1][3][9] - The short-term government bond yield is expected to trend towards 1.1%, while the 10-year bond yield may break below 1.6% and approach 1.5% [1][6][9] 3. **Factors Influencing Interest Rate Movements** - A significant amount of maturing certificates of deposit and fluctuations in the funding environment may temporarily restrict interest rate declines [1][7] - Positive outcomes from US-China negotiations could slightly increase market risk appetite, potentially affecting rates by 2-3 basis points [1][4][5][7] 4. **Investment Strategies** - A bullish approach is recommended for the next two to three months, focusing on 3 to 5-year bullet bonds if the central bank resumes bond purchases [1][9][11] - In the absence of such expectations, a strategy favoring ticket interest or yield spread compression is advised [1][9][11] 5. **Long-term Credit Bonds** - Long-term credit bonds are viewed as having high certainty in the current market environment, with recommendations to focus on 8-year medium-term notes and 6 to 10-year subordinated capital bonds [1][15] 6. **Local vs. National Bonds** - The spread between local and national bonds is expected to remain stable, with local bond issuance anticipated to increase in Q3 [1][16][17] 7. **Liquidity and Trading Strategies** - Active bonds are reasonably priced and maintain good liquidity, making them suitable for trading [1][21] - Investors are advised to monitor changes in liquidity premiums and bond pricing dynamics [1][21] 8. **Floating vs. Fixed Rate Bonds** - Floating rate bonds are currently reasonably priced, but may not outperform fixed-rate bonds if short-term rates decline [1][24] 9. **Government Bond Futures** - Current pricing of government bond futures is considered high, but they still hold hedging value. Strategies may include shorting corresponding futures to capture yield [1][25] Other Important Considerations - The overall economic outlook remains dependent on continued monetary support, with expectations for the central bank to take action to stabilize market conditions amid significant government bond supply pressures [1][8] - The anticipated bond market dynamics suggest a cautious yet opportunistic approach to investment, with a focus on liquidity and yield optimization [1][9][15]

新华财经上海6月10日电（记者杨溢仁）在央行呵护资金面态度愈发明确、关税调整不确定性尚存的大 背景下，债市多头情绪开始逐渐占据上风。 分析人士认为，6月仍可保持看多方向不变，10年期国债收益率的下限或在1.5%附近，各机构可继续关 注久期策略。 多重利好叠加发酵 近期，债市迎来多重利好"加持"。 首先，是来自基本面的支撑依旧未曾缺席。根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年5月，CPI同比下降 0.1%，1月至5月CPI累计同比下降0.1%；5月PPI同比下降3.3%，1月至5月PPI累计同比下降2.6%。 "CPI同比持续处于1.0%以下的低位，表明当前国内物价水平稳中偏弱，这为下半年货币政策持续加力 提供了充分的政策空间。"一位机构交易员向记者表示，"此外，5月PPI同比跌幅较上月大幅扩大0.6个 百分点，一方面是由于新涨价动能持续减弱，另一方面也因翘尾因素对PPI同比的拖累有所加深。鉴于 基本面的复苏难言一蹴而就，则当前债市所处环境依旧'友好'，仍可保持'看多'方向。" "利率下行最主要的驱动力为实体回报率的下行，未来几个月物价走弱决定了实体能够接受的融资成本 还将下降。"国盛证券研究所固收首席分析师杨业伟 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the bond market and investment strategies in response to current monetary policy and market conditions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Interest Rates** - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations are stabilizing market expectations, but investors should be cautious of short-term deposit rate fluctuations [1] - There is a high probability of interest rates declining in the next two to three months, with the 10-year government bond yield potentially reaching a low of around 1.6% [1][3] - The future direction of interest rates will depend on the central bank's actions regarding bond purchases and the possibility of a second interest rate cut within the year [1][3] 2. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Investors are advised to choose investment portfolios based on the central bank's bond purchasing and liquidity conditions [4] - Bullet and barbell strategies are recommended, with the barbell strategy offering more flexibility and cost-effectiveness in the current flat yield curve environment [1][6] - For those with lower returns or unextended durations, direct purchases are suggested, but investors must be prepared for potential volatility [8] 3. **Long-term Bond Holdings** - It is advisable to continue holding long-term credit bonds (5 years and above), despite their lower liquidity and higher duration risks [10][11] - Investors should selectively buy at convex points and consider bonds with better liquidity, such as those from the electric grid sector [11] 4. **Liquidity Management** - To mitigate liquidity issues with long-duration credit bonds, purchasing credit bond ETFs or related funds is recommended [12] 5. **Local Government Special Bonds** - Investment in local government special bonds should focus on regions with favorable yield spreads, such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and others, particularly in the 5 to 7-year maturity range [13] 6. **Trading Strategies** - Specific trading strategies include focusing on the 10-year government bonds with good liquidity and considering the yield differences between various maturities [15][16] - For medium-term bonds (3-5 years), certain government bonds are highlighted for their strong cost-effectiveness [17] - In the futures market, the pricing of government bond futures is slightly high, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [18] Other Important Considerations - Recent discussions have centered on how to construct investment portfolios based on different interest rate decline scenarios and the timing of buying versus waiting [9] - The potential impact of large amounts of maturing deposits on market volatility should not be overlooked [8][9] - The overall risk of significant adjustments in the bond market within the next quarter appears low, supporting the rationale for holding long credit bonds [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current bond market dynamics and strategic recommendations for investors.

| 品种 | 加权利率(%) | 最新利率(%) | 平均回购期限(天) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3770 | 1.3466 | 1 | | DR007 | 1.5126 | 1.4500 | 6.91 | | DR014 | 1.5393 | 1.5500 | 12.75 | | DR021 | 1.5707 | 1.5800 | 18.04 | | DR1M | 1.6822 | 1.7000 | 29.69 | 银行间市场短期利率走低 不仅是DR007变动明显，6月9日，银行间市场七天期质押式回购加权利率（即R007）跌3.85基点至1.4938%，创2024年10月12日以来新低。银行间市场隔夜 质押式回购加权利率早盘跌4.19基点至1.3705%，创2024年12月30日以来新低。 北京商报记者了解到，银行间市场七天期质押式回购加权利率，即R007，是全市场机构（包括银行、券商、基金等）以各类债券（含信用债）为抵押的7天 期回购利率，该数据反映了市场整体流动性水平，受信用风险、抵押品质量影响较大。 与之相关的七天期存款类金融机构质押式回购利率， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent drastic cuts in deposit interest rates by major state-owned banks have led to a significant shift in investment behavior among young people, who are increasingly seeking alternative financial products to combat inflation and preserve their wealth [1][5][18]. Interest Rate Changes - Major state-owned banks have reduced the one-year fixed deposit interest rate to below 1%, resulting in a return of less than 10,000 yuan on a 1 million yuan deposit [1][5]. - The cumulative reduction in the one-year deposit rate since September 2022 has reached 80 basis points, dropping from 1.75% to 0.95% [5]. Economic Factors - The decline in interest rates is attributed to multiple economic factors, including the need to stimulate consumption, alleviate pressure on banks, respond to global monetary policy trends, and encourage a shift from real estate dependency to diversified asset allocation [5][6][7]. Shift in Investment Strategies - Young investors are moving away from traditional savings accounts to riskier yet potentially more rewarding financial products, such as "fixed income plus" (固收+) investments, which combine stable returns from bonds with higher-risk assets for enhanced yield [10][12][18]. - The trend of reallocating funds from savings to alternative investments is evident, with a reported decrease of 1.39 trillion yuan in bank deposits and a corresponding increase of 1.57 trillion yuan in non-bank deposits in early 2025 [10]. New Investment Products - The "fixed income plus" strategy is gaining popularity among young investors, characterized by a portfolio that consists of at least 80% low-risk fixed income assets, complemented by up to 20% in higher-risk investments [12][13]. - This investment approach aims to achieve annualized returns of 3% to 6%, providing a balance between risk and reward [13]. Market Trends - The market for "fixed income plus" products has seen significant growth, with total assets reaching 1.8 trillion yuan in early 2025, despite a decline in pure bond fund sizes [13][18]. - The popularity of these products is reflected in the increasing number of users on platforms like Ant Wealth, which reported an 88% year-on-year growth in "fixed income plus" fund users in early 2025 [13]. Conclusion - The current financial landscape is prompting a fundamental shift in how individuals manage their savings and investments, with a collective movement towards more dynamic and diversified financial strategies to adapt to low interest rates and inflationary pressures [1][18].

机构认为，无论从银行盈利压力、负债压力以及央行对流动性呵护程度、基本面状况来看，当前和一季 度都有显著差别，因而行情不会简单重复。下半年来看，我国出口下行压力可能会更多显现，政府债券 的供给压力也会明显缓解，预计二三季度货币政策放松可能加码，资金利率中枢或将明显回落，年内利 率债仍有胜率。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.03%报119.45，10年期主力合约跌0.03%报108.69，5年期 主力合约跌0.04%报105.96，2年期主力合约跌0.04%报102.352。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数小幅上行，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.25BP报1.715%，10年期 国债"25附息国债11"收益率持平报1.6750%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行1.25BP报1.931%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.29%，报430.56点，成交金额552.38亿元。豪美转债、福新转债、中宠转2、水 羊转债、志特转债涨幅居前，分别涨8.87%、7.62%、6.04%、5.94%、5.88%。中旗转债、东时转债、惠 城转债、精达转债、游族转债跌幅居前，分别跌12.8%、 ...