Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly regarding interest rates and fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: The bond market is expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.5% and 1.8% [2][3][11]. 2. **Monetary Policy**: There is an expectation that monetary policy will not undergo significant easing, with limited room for interest rate cuts and a potential 50 basis points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][7]. 3. **Fiscal Stimulus**: A new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion is anticipated, with 100 billion allocated for private investment, which is expected to have a significant multiplier effect on GDP [5][6]. 4. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the year is around 5%, with expectations that investment will precede consumption in driving this growth [6][5]. 5. **Impact of External Tariffs**: The negative impact of external tariffs on exports is expected to be less severe than previously anticipated, with a gradual improvement in data post-June [4][5]. 6. **Debt Supply**: The total supply of bonds is projected to be around 6.88 trillion, with a monthly net financing of approximately 1.15 trillion, which is stable compared to previous years [8][9]. 7. **Institutional Behavior**: Institutional behaviors are expected to influence the bond market significantly, with banks and insurance companies adjusting their strategies based on market conditions [10][12][17]. 8. **Credit Market Performance**: The credit market is expected to outperform interest rate products, with strategies suggested for public institutions to adopt diagonal strategies for credit yield [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Spending**: The government has approved 300 billion for consumer spending, with 160 billion already in progress, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [6]. - **Long-term Rate Predictions**: Long-term interest rates are expected to gradually decline, potentially reaching below 1.5% by the end of 2025 or 2026, although significant downward movement is limited [29]. - **Market Sensitivity**: There is an increasing sensitivity of the macroeconomic environment to changes in the debt financial cycle, which may affect future predictions and risk assessments [32]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the bond market, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and broader economic implications.

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The credit demand is weak, but the growth rate of social financing is stable. The new loans in May 2025 decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The growth rate of M2 was stable month-on-month, and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The social financing in May increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing was stable. It is expected that the new loans in 2025 will increase slightly year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds will expand significantly year-on-year, the social financing will increase significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing may rise first and then fall, with an estimated year-end growth rate of about 8.3%. Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Credit Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new loans decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The new individual loans were +540 million, including -208 million in short-term individual loans and +746 million in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year-on-year increase. The new short - term corporate loans were +1.1 billion, the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were +3.3 billion, and the bill financing was +746 million. Due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term [2]. M1 and M2 Analysis - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of May 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 108.9 trillion yuan. In May, the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 was 2.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The growth rates of both the new and old M1 calibers have significantly rebounded since Q4 2024, reflecting an improvement in economic activity [2]. Social Financing Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.22 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 59.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.37 billion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 11.62 billion yuan; the net financing of corporate bonds was +14.96 billion yuan; the net financing of government bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.67 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing at the end of May was 8.7%, the same as at the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored. The reduction of long - term time deposit interest rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The reduction of deposit interest rates is expected to promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the wealth management scale may increase significantly in July, further compressing credit spreads. In 2025, bond market investment needs to be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond investment opportunities and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2].

截至2025年6月13日 10:08，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.01%， 冲击5连涨。最新价报105.95元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月12日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨 2.14%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.13%，成交2435.34万元。拉长时间看，截至6月12日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交23.80亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达182.76亿元，创成立以来新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.73亿份，创近1月新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近5天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得15.38亿元净流入，合计"吸金"27.32亿元，日均净流入达5.46亿元。 截至2025年6月13日 10:07，国债ETF5至10年(511020)上涨0.01%，最新价报117.46元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月12日，国债ETF5至10年近3月累计上涨 1.41%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手0.08%，成交119.58万元。拉长时间看，截至6月12日，国债ETF5至10年近1周日均成交8.69亿元。 规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达14.31 ...

截至2025年6月10日 10:32，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.02%，最新价报105.91元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月9日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨2.06%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手11.8%，成交20.69亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至6月9日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交19.85亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达175.24亿元，创成立以来新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.66亿份，创近1月新高。 虽然关税大降，但当前央行刻意宽松，与Q1判若两人，短期来看资金面无担忧，预计资金利率低位低波动。当前，我们对利率债中性，对信用偏多，看收 益率2%以上信用债利差压缩。 10Y国债不仅看资金面，更看经济预期。全A已新高，上证也涨回去了，港股银行屡创新高，恒生科技也涨回去大部分。我们看经济企稳，芬太尼关税也有 下调的可能，认为2025年利率债没有趋势性机会，如履薄冰。建议关注5Y信用债机会，攻守兼备，三五年定期存款利率低是支撑。重点跟踪后续央行是否 会收紧资金面。 平安基金债券ETF三剑客成员包括公司债ETF(511030)、国开债券ETF(159651)和国债 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 228.2 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 0 billion, 137.4 billion, and 130 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds totaled an issuance scale of 243.1 billion, with a net financing amount of 50.1 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 300 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as profit-taking sentiment among institutions, the effectiveness ruling on US tariffs, and the increase in certificate of deposit rates [2] Liquidity Tracking - The repo market maintained a loose funding environment last week, with a slight increase in certificate of deposit rates. The central bank announced a net withdrawal of 200 billion through reverse repos in May, without engaging in government bond transactions [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Relevant departments announced that several major financial policies will be released during the Lujiazui Financial Forum. In April, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises increased alongside rising profit margins, while inventory levels decreased. The manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, in line with expectations [4] Overseas Market - A US court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs was "overreaching," and the Trump administration has appealed. The S&P 500 rose by 1.9% over the week, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 10 basis points [5] Equity Market - The A-share market continued to favor small-cap stocks last week. Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 0.83%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.48%, and the CSI 2000 index rose by 1.09%. A-share trading volume shrank, with an average daily turnover of 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 93.062 billion week-on-week. As of May 29, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,797.562 billion, slightly increasing by 722 million compared to May 22 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Recent increases in certificate of deposit rates may be related to the upcoming maturity of certificates in June. The month will also see government bond issuances and the maturity of various monetary policy tools, leading to concentrated funding demands, which may cause fluctuations in interbank market liquidity. However, typically, funding demands tend to ease at the beginning of the month. The recent adjustments in interest rate bonds due to institutional behavior have created opportunities that warrant attention, emphasizing the value of coupon assets. In the convertible bond sector, the market is entering a phase where fundamentals, policies, and US-China relations are relatively stable, suggesting that the pricing weight of individual bonds based on industry logic may continue to increase. Given the ongoing supply-demand imbalance for convertible bonds this year, and the fact that the average conversion premium across multiple parity ranges remains below the spring market levels, the valuation of convertible bonds is relatively supported, and their attractiveness for allocation has begun to recover since last week [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a slight upward trend due to a balanced and loose funding environment, with long-term bond yields rising slightly [1][2][4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan today [2] - The interbank funding rates have shown a decline, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.55% [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower at 1.67% but rebounded to around 1.675%, indicating a narrow fluctuation [4] - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May was below expectations, contributing to a slight increase in the stock market [4] - Different sectors are showing divergent trends, with "new consumption" and "hard currency" stocks reaching new highs, while "old economy" sectors like coking coal continue to decline [4]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% at 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, the ChiNext down 0.31%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 0.41% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.01 trillion, an increase of 11 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Defensive sectors such as telecommunications, transportation, cash flow, and coal performed well, while sectors like semiconductors, automobiles, and military showed declines [1] Economic Indicators - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has seen minimal movement, with a slight increase of 0.46% since April 7. The yield on ten-year government bonds rose from 1.632% to 1.720%, indicating a price drop [1] - The bond market is expected to experience volatility in the short term, with limited downside risk. Long-term trends are influenced by fundamental and policy factors, particularly inflation and economic growth [3] Investment Dynamics - Investment, including real estate, consumer spending, and foreign trade, remains the main driver of China's economic growth, influenced by policy direction [4] - In the first quarter, export delivery value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while the real estate sector continues to show negative growth in new construction and sales areas [4] Price Trends - April's Producer Price Index (PPI) was -2.70%, primarily affected by declines in the mining and raw materials sectors. The demand for coal and steel remains weak due to insufficient demand and overcapacity [6] - The real estate sector's stabilization is crucial for the macroeconomic outlook, with ongoing concerns about the performance of upstream raw materials [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - Recent government initiatives aim to accelerate urban renewal projects, which could significantly impact economic data if progress is made [8] - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the one-year Loan Prime Rate to 2.94%, signal a supportive stance towards the bond market [9] Automotive Sector Insights - The new energy vehicle ETF (159806) has seen a decline of 5.41% over the past five days, despite a year-on-year production and sales growth exceeding 30% in April [10] - BYD initiated a price war with significant discounts on multiple models, prompting other automakers to follow suit, indicating intense competition and potential financial risks within the industry [12][13]

第 382 期 2025-05-27 焦点关注 交易所债项扩募新规步入实践 两笔公司债拟于本周五续发 河南省完成发行144.76亿元地方债 宏观动态 央行开展4480亿元7天期逆回购操作 5月27日，央行开展4480亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率持平于1.40%。今日有3570亿元逆回购到期， 实现净投放910亿元。 区域热点 河南拟发行130.58亿元再融资一般债 5月27日，河南省财政厅披露2025年河南省政府一般债券（三期）信息文件。 2025年河南省政府一般债券（三期）拟发行总额为130.5821亿元，期限为7年期，品种为记账式固定利 率附息债券。募集资金用于偿还2018年河南省政府一般债券（三期）的部分本金。 5月26日，中信证券和招商证券相继公告对其存量公司债进行续发行，规模分别为不超过30亿元和不超 过20亿元，标志着通过债券续发优化融资结构的模式正式落地。 此前，5月21日，上交所发布《上海证券交易所公司债券和资产支持证券发行上市挂牌业务指南（2025 年5月修订）》，试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务，发行人可以使用有效期内的公开发行 注册文件或者非公开发行无异议函向上交所申请发行备案 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the future week, as the fund - face crosses the month and the net payment scale of government bonds rises, considering the central bank's care for the fund - face, the fund - face is expected to operate in a balanced manner [1][28]. - In the future week, with a certificate of deposit (CD) maturity scale of about 65 billion, the pressure on the bank's liability side is controllable, and CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the fund - face [1][29]. - In the week before the holiday, against the background of the lack of a clear direction in the interest - rate bond market, the attention to the coupon strategy of non - bank institutions such as funds may further increase. Short - end coupon asset sinking will still be the mainstream strategy in the near future [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - Central bank operations: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, 48.6 billion of 7 - day reverse repurchase funds matured, the central bank injected 94.6 billion of 7 - day funds, renewed 50 billion of MLF, and injected 24 billion of treasury deposits, with a net injection of 120 billion in total, and the 7 - day OMO stock rose to 94.6 billion [10]. - Exchange rate: The on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 2 basis points, and the use of the counter - cyclical factor basically disappeared [10]. - Government bond progress: Last week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 24.349 billion, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 264.401 billion, completing 39.7% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 11.3083 billion, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 180.3 billion, completing 34.7% of the annual plan. As of May 23, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1.62 trillion, completing 81.2% of the annual plan [13]. - Fund structure: The lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased, while that of money market funds and wealth management products increased. The overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased slightly. Overnight and 7 - day fund rates declined marginally, while the 14 - day fund rate rose slightly due to cross - month arrangements. The liquidity stratification was at a low level [17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - Primary market: The net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 2.4 billion, with a total issuance of 71.434 billion and a maturity of 73.834 billion. The future three - week maturities will be 65.273 billion, 66.655 billion, and 120.363 billion respectively. The primary issuance rate rose slightly to 1.6688% [20]. - Secondary market: Core buyers such as funds, wealth management products, and large - scale banks continued to increase their holdings, while money market funds switched to selling. Insurance, other non - bank institutions, and product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated slightly upwards, and the yield curve steepened [23]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - Fund - face: The asymmetric cut of deposit and loan interest rates on May 20 may relieve the pressure on banks' net interest margins, but the policy effect needs to be observed. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF on May 23 and net injection of liquidity in the open market throughout the week reflect its care for the fund - face. Before the next interest - rate cut, the central bank is likely to guide the fund - face to maintain a balanced state. In the future week, as the fund - face crosses the month and the net payment scale of government bonds rises, the fund - face is expected to operate in a balanced manner [28]. - CD: The net financing of CDs was still negative last week, but the amplitude narrowed, and the primary - market rate rose slightly. In the future week, with a CD maturity scale of about 65 billion, the pressure on the bank's liability side is controllable, and CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the fund - face [29]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior and Micro - structure Review - Regarding institutional asset - liability sides: After the policy - rate cut and deposit - rate reduction, it is still difficult to reduce banks' liability costs. The classification supervision trial rating results for wealth management products have been released, and some leading wealth management companies may need to optimize and adjust their indicators. June is the peak of CD maturities this year, and large - scale banks may start to reserve liabilities in advance in late May. Short - end coupon asset sinking will still be the mainstream strategy [31]. - Specific data: On May 23, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds in the past 10 - day rolling average was 3.18 years, a slight increase. The bond - market leverage ratio in the week before the holiday was 106.84%, a slight decrease. The 10Y China Development Bank - 10Y treasury bond term spread was - 1.74bp, and the 1Y China Development Bank - R001 spread was - 6.18BP, with the inversion pattern of short - term bonds and fund prices converging [32][33][36].