Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

Group 1: Strategy Insights - The report suggests that gold has been undervalued and presents a buying opportunity, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties affecting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][6] - It is anticipated that U.S. Treasury bonds will remain under pressure, while U.S. stocks may experience volatility, with a potential shift towards value stocks [1][6] Group 2: Company Performance - Horizon Robotics - Horizon Robotics reported a total revenue of 3.758 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -10.469 billion yuan, a significant decline of 546.14% [11][12] - The company holds a 47.7% market share in the basic driver assistance systems (ADAS) market, leading among domestic brands, and has a 14.4% share in the mid-to-high-end intelligent driving market [11][12] Group 3: Company Performance - China Chemical - China Chemical achieved a revenue of 190.125 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%, with a net profit of 6.436 billion yuan, up 13.15% [14][16] - The company plans to secure new contracts worth 410 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 1.57% increase year-on-year, and aims for total revenue of 195 billion yuan, a 2.56% increase [14][16] Group 4: Industry Trends - Food and Beverage - The report highlights that the Middle East conflict has led to rising costs for packaging materials, while the impact on agricultural products remains limited [18][19] - It is recommended to focus on sectors that can effectively pass on price increases, such as dairy and key condiments, as well as those with manageable cost pressures [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran situation, on global markets, highlighting the interplay between high oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1][5][17]. Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, marking the 13th consecutive month of increased liquidity support to stabilize the market [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with expectations of only one rate cut this year, indicating a prolonged high-rate environment [1]. - Oil prices remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions, with Goldman Sachs and others raising short-term oil price forecasts due to supply risks [1]. - Gold prices are driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, closing above $4,500 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights Shipping - The EC index fell by 6.04%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and potential negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [2]. - Container shipping rates have decreased, with significant price adjustments noted for large containers, indicating pressure on shipping rates due to reduced export demand [2][33]. Copper - Copper prices rose by 0.69%, supported by tight supply conditions, although smelting profits are at breakeven levels [24]. - The overall copper production remains high despite a slight month-on-month decline, with attention needed on downstream demand and smelting output [24]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed a rebound, with significant trading volumes, although the market remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [3][27]. - The financing balance decreased, indicating a more cautious approach from investors during the earnings disclosure period [3][27]. Group 3: Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with recent geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite and liquidity conditions [23]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [23]. Energy - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical developments, with the U.S. delaying military actions against Iran, which has implications for energy prices [18]. - The International Energy Agency noted that the current Middle East crisis could have a more severe impact on energy prices than past oil crises [18]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian soybean harvest rates are lagging behind historical averages, but overall production is expected to be high, impacting global soybean prices [28]. - The palm oil market is influenced by production increases in Southeast Asia, although potential export restrictions from Indonesia could support prices [29].

Group 1 - The market's pricing logic is shifting from "inflation shock" to "growth shock," with gold prices dropping from $5,400/ton to below $4,300/ton amid escalating Middle East conflicts [1][4] - Precious metals have outperformed other sectors, with the performance ranking as follows: precious metals > non-ferrous metals > chemicals/agriculture > black metals [4][5] - The recent price declines across various sectors correspond inversely to their previous gains, indicating that sectors with larger prior increases are experiencing greater pullbacks [7][9] Group 2 - The market is currently trading based on historical patterns where oil price increases lead to inflation, rising interest rates, and falling stock prices, but a shift to "growth shock" is anticipated [9][10] - Global central banks have adopted a hawkish stance, with expectations of "panic rate hikes" despite soft economic data, indicating a reluctance to lower interest rates [13] - The logic behind gold pricing has been altered, as central banks are using gold to exchange for essential goods during crises rather than merely as a safe-haven asset [14][16] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by high volatility in metals, with emotional trading patterns emerging, particularly in gold, silver, and copper [17] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is under pressure due to high inventory costs and locked-up capital, leading to a lack of resistance against price declines [17][18] - The risk of excessive tightening by central banks could lead to significant market instability, with a stabilization period expected around mid-April [18]

Group 1 - Precious metals surged collectively as the situation in Iran showed signs of easing, leading to a weaker US dollar [1] - The US proposed a 15-point agreement to Iran aimed at ending hostilities, which includes commitments from Iran regarding nuclear weapons and the status of the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Iran stated that "non-hostile vessels" can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination from Iranian authorities [2] Group 2 - SpaceX plans to submit its IPO prospectus soon, aiming to raise over $75 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates of $50 billion [3] - The latest funding round valued SpaceX at $1.25 trillion, and if the IPO proceeds as planned, it will surpass the previous record set by Saudi Aramco [3] Group 3 - A-shares saw a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.30% to 3932 points, and the ChiNext Index leading with a 2.01% increase [10] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets approached 2.2 trillion, an increase of nearly 100 billion from the previous day [6] - The market showed a clear "risk-off + growth" dual-driven pattern, with the precious metals sector leading the gains [10] Group 4 - The market is currently in a rebound phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering approximately 3.1% from its low of 3813 points [12] - The fear index (GVIX) decreased from 23.83 to 20.69, indicating a partial recovery in market sentiment, though it remains elevated compared to normal levels [12] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 3900-point level, with potential for further gains if it can break above 3950 points [12] Group 5 - The external environment is shifting from "extreme tension" to "tense with easing," but uncertainties remain high, impacting A-shares' strength [13] - Domestic policies are maintaining a positive tone, with ongoing support for new industrial policies and a manageable outflow pressure from foreign capital [14] - The commercial space sector is entering a critical validation phase, with multiple rocket recovery tests planned for 2026, and SpaceX's IPO is expected to catalyze the global commercial space industry [14] Group 6 - Investment focus should be on three main lines: precious and non-ferrous metals, technology growth sectors like commercial space and AI computing, and opportunities in sectors that have seen significant corrections [15] - Precious metals are expected to have value regardless of the geopolitical situation, with potential for growth in both easing and prolonged conflict scenarios [15] - The commercial space sector is poised for growth due to SpaceX's IPO and advancements in satellite internet and rocket recovery technologies [15]

Core Conclusions - Gold has been mispriced and is likely in a "golden pit" during a long-term bull market. The recent drop of over 17% in London gold prices following the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict suggests that the "de-dollarization" logic supporting gold's rise has failed. However, the current adjustment is viewed as a mispricing, maintaining the judgment that the "petrodollar" may temporarily enhance the credibility of the dollar but cannot reverse the mid-term weakening trend of the dollar's credibility. Gold prices are expected to reach new highs [1]. Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - The current pricing of gold is primarily based on its reserve value, reflecting the widening cracks in dollar credibility. Since October 2022, the US long-term real interest rates have remained high, yet gold prices have risen rapidly, indicating that the market is pricing gold based on its reserve value rather than its trading value. This shift is attributed to the exclusion of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT system following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, accelerating the erosion of dollar credibility. Historical data from the 1970s shows a similar pattern where gold prices surged significantly during periods of dollar credibility crises [1][2]. - The expansion of petrodollar trade has created a temporary constraint on gold prices. The US's control over Venezuela's oil regime and the rise in oil prices from around $70 to approximately $100 per barrel due to the US-Iran conflict have increased the scale of petrodollar trade, which is linked to dollar credibility. This recent oil price increase has siphoned liquidity and nominally repaired dollar credibility, leading to a more significant decline in gold prices compared to other assets [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - If Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, the credibility of the dollar will be weakened in the medium to long term. The Strait is a crucial energy transport route, with an estimated daily oil transport volume of about 19 million barrels, accounting for approximately 18% of global consumption. If Iran were to block the Strait or dominate the passage rights, the rules for dollar-denominated oil trade would be challenged, potentially leading to a significant reduction in dollar credibility and a resurgence in gold prices [3]. - In the event of liquidity pressures, if the Federal Reserve opts for quantitative easing (QE), the cracks in dollar credibility may widen further. If the new Fed chair, potentially Walsh, implements a policy framework that favors easing despite inflation not falling as expected, it could lead to a liquidity crisis. This scenario would compel the Fed to adopt QE, accelerating the expansion of dollar credibility cracks and potentially driving gold prices higher [4][5]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The report indicates that the dollar's strength, bolstered by oil prices, is merely a temporary facade. The underlying dynamics suggest that the dollar's credibility may be permanently weakened due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the US fails to secure control over the Strait of Hormuz or opts for QE under liquidity pressures. This would reinforce the long-term bullish outlook for gold [6]. - The report also highlights potential investment opportunities in Chinese assets, particularly in sectors that can withstand geopolitical uncertainties, such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. The report suggests that as liquidity conditions shift, US Treasury bonds may come under pressure, and the stock market may experience volatility, with a potential shift towards value stocks [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market panic has eased due to the news of the US-Iran negotiation, which has boosted the precious metal prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the precious metal prices lack a clear upward drive in the short term and may fluctuate. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support the precious metal prices. Strategies can focus on long - term long - position allocation opportunities [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 24, 2026, London gold spot was at $4411.48 per ounce, London silver spot was at $69.36 per ounce, COMEX gold was at $4413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $69.50 per ounce. Compared with March 23, the prices of gold and silver increased, with gold rising by about 4.7% and silver rising by about 10.6% [5]. - The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also increased. For example, AU2604 was at 977.28 yuan per gram, with a 4.0% increase, and AG2604 was at 17195.00 yuan per kilogram, with a 10.9% increase [5]. 2. Spread/Ratio - The spread and ratio of gold and silver in different markets changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 0.27 yuan per gram on March 24, with a - 126.7% change compared with March 23. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.84 on March 24, with a - 6.3% change [5]. 3. Position Data - As of March 23, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.7 tons, with a - 0.41% change compared with March 20. The non - commercial long - position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, with a 0.24% change [5]. 4. Inventory Data - On March 24, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, with a 0.00% change compared with March 23. The COMEX silver inventory on March 23 was 332090493 troy ounces, with a - 0.18% change compared with March 20 [5]. 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 24, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, with a - 0.14% change compared with March 23. The US dollar index on March 23 was 99.16, with a - 0.35% change compared with March 20 [5]. 6. Market Review - On March 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.57% to 977.28 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.51% to 17085 yuan per kilogram [5]. 7. Impact Analysis - The market panic has eased due to the news of the US - Iran negotiation, which has boosted the precious metal prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear, and the precious metal prices lack a clear upward drive in the short term and may fluctuate [6]. 8. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the market panic eases, the precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate in position rotation. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support the precious metal prices. Strategies can focus on long - term long - position allocation opportunities [6].

2026 年 3 月 25 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 979.80 | 977.280 | 17085 | 17195 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 942.80 | 940.000 | 15411 | 15498 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 37.00 | 37.280 | 1674 | 1697 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 3.92% | 3.97% | 10.86% | 10.95% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 159914 | 54345 | 211635 | 52442 | | | | 成交量 | 363001 | 282408 | ...

2026年03月25日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 487.40 | 485.95 | 477.60 | 359.50 | 357.50 | 354.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 457.75 | 453.80 | 452.65 | 327.85 | 333.00 | 332.20 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 17.00 | 20.30 | 16.30 | 16.75 | 14.40 | 15.60 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 3.61% | 4.36% | 3.53% | 4.89% | 4.20% | 4.61% | | | 持仓量 | ...