Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the energy sector, particularly regarding oil prices and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential for strong performance in oil products despite current challenges [1][13]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly Iran's strategic maneuvers, is expected to have long-term implications for global supply chains and energy markets [1][3]. - The energy market anticipates a six-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to elevated oil prices and a projected 0.7% downward adjustment in Eurozone GDP [1][14]. - Central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, are expected to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures, with two rate hikes anticipated in April and June [1][14]. - The gold market narrative is shifting, with central banks potentially reducing their gold holdings to defend currency values, indicating a possible peak at $5,500 [1][5]. - The dollar has regained its status as a preferred safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of oil price shocks, outperforming other assets like bonds and gold [1][9]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - Iran's resilience and strategic decisions have shifted the balance of power, complicating U.S. military objectives and increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. - The potential for a ceasefire remains uncertain, with both sides showing significant public disagreement but a lack of clear military solutions [2][3]. Energy Market Dynamics - The refining sector is facing supply challenges due to reduced crude oil availability, particularly in Asia, which is expected to impact global markets in the coming weeks [1][13]. - The report highlights a strong outlook for oil products, despite current supply chain disruptions, with a recommendation against shorting diesel due to critical supply lines being affected [1][13]. Economic Forecasts - Adjustments to economic forecasts for Europe and the UK are driven by energy market changes, with a projected cumulative GDP decline of 0.7% for the Eurozone [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring energy dynamics and price surveys to gauge future economic conditions in Europe and the UK [1][15]. Market Sentiment and Strategies - The report notes a shift in market focus from inflation to long-term growth concerns, with potential strategies favoring duration and yield curve positioning [1][7]. - There is a recognition of the need for open-mindedness regarding bearish views on gold, as market dynamics may shift significantly post-conflict [1][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for peace talks between the U.S. and Iran facilitated by Pakistan, highlighting the mixed signals from both parties regarding their readiness to engage in negotiations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Developments - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar announced that both the U.S. and Iran have expressed confidence in Pakistan's ability to facilitate talks, with a possibility of meetings occurring in the near future [2][3]. - A meeting of foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia resulted in a commitment to support the establishment of a committee to develop a concrete plan for resolving the conflict [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The Asia-Pacific markets experienced significant declines, with Japan and South Korea seeing substantial drops, while A-shares showed relative resilience despite many stocks declining [4]. - Oil prices remain high, and while precious metals like gold and silver faced declines, the drop was not as severe. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield did not rise significantly, indicating a potential market shift towards recession concerns [4]. - Research from Mitsubishi UFJ Bank suggests that the ongoing Middle East conflict may lead to prolonged tensions, which could sustain high inflation and interest rates in the U.S., impacting risk-sensitive assets negatively [4]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the geopolitical situation is tightening global liquidity expectations, leading to cautious trading sentiment. Investors are seeking certainty in sectors like lithium batteries amidst energy price shocks [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of "cost pass-through" capabilities within industry chains, as the market faces multiple challenges from geopolitical variables and pre-holiday effects [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-30 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 伊朗局势方面，特朗普通过中间人转交停火方案遭伊朗拒绝，战争再度升级，外盘原油短期再次 冲高。供需端，农膜方面，农膜处于季节性旺季尾声，需求有所放缓，包装膜受原料涨价影响下 游观望情绪较重，采购节奏偏向刚需，管材方面随着气温回升和基建项目开工率提高，订单增多。 当前LL交割品现货价8550（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-318，升贴水比例-3.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存64.4万吨（+2.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices declined and then stabilized. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.26% to close at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, while the Middle East events and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons and increased significantly last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. - The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The Shanghai copper main contract rose 1.26% last week, closing at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. 3.2. Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual copper supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in each year, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3. Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [25]. - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1, the polyolefin and propylene markets generally trended upward in a volatile manner. The ongoing Iran - US conflict led to significant increases in crude oil and LPG prices, providing strong cost support and causing supply to tighten due to widespread plant shutdowns and production cuts. Looking ahead to Q2, the core focus will be on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and its impact on the supply - demand pattern. If the conflict persists, the olefin chain is expected to remain strong; if the situation eases, the decline in prices will be limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand re - balance of polyolefins and propylene needs to be re - evaluated after the supply gradually recovers [1][3]. - The price ranges for Q2 are estimated as follows: L2605 is expected to be between 7,800 - 9,600 yuan/ton, PP2605 between 7,800 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and PL2605 between 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Short - term, the three varieties are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. For monthly arbitrage, consider long 9 - short 1 spreads for L and PP. For inter - variety arbitrage, widen the P - L spread on dips, and there is no clear directional driver for the PP - PL spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, the polyolefin and propylene markets generally trended upward in a volatile manner. By March 20, the closing price of the plastic main contract rose 36.25%, polypropylene rose 42.08%, and propylene rose 51.50%. The market can be divided into two stages: before the conflict (January 5 - February 27), the three varieties showed an oscillatory recovery; after the conflict (March 2 - present), the prices rose exponentially due to cost support and supply contraction [6][7]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Refinery Production Cuts and Polyolefin Supply Reduction - Due to the conflict, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the oil and gas fields in the Middle East reduced production. Refineries reduced production defensively, leading to a significant reduction in polyolefin supply in March - April. The PE plant operating rate dropped from 87.95% to 80.07%, and the weekly output decreased by 8.97%. The PP plant operating rate dropped from 75.49% to 70.50%, and the weekly output decreased by 6.61%. If the conflict persists, the polyolefin plant maintenance losses will further increase in April [15]. 3.2.2 Threat to PDH Plant Raw Material Supply - The PDH plant has been significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict. Before the war, the PDH plant operating rate had dropped to around 65%. After the conflict, the LPG price soared, further compressing the PDH plant profit. If the conflict persists, PDH plants may shut down, driving up the prices of PP and propylene. If the situation eases, the PDH plant operating rate is expected to remain low in the short term [20]. 3.2.3 Direct Impact on PE Imports - China's PE imports are directly affected by the conflict. About 40% of PE imports come from the Middle East. It is estimated that the PE import volume will decrease by about 20 - 25 tons per month in March - April. Non - standard products' import reduction is expected to be more obvious, and attention should be paid to the HDPE - LLDPE price spread [22]. 3.2.4 Tightening of Asian Olefin Supply - The conflict has led to a shortage of crude oil and naphtha supply in Asia, causing overseas refineries to cut production. Ethylene and propylene prices have risen significantly. The export profit of polyolefins has increased, and export orders have increased, with some demand from Southeast Asia shifting to China [26]. 3.2.5 Negative Feedback on the Demand Side - As polyolefin prices rise, the demand side shows negative feedback. The downstream's willingness to accept high - price goods is limited, and the spot trading volume has decreased, with the basis weakening significantly. If the conflict persists, downstream enterprises will pass on cost pressure; if the situation eases, downstream replenishment will support prices [29][30]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Valuation Feedback - **PE Valuation**: The cost of PE has increased significantly due to the conflict. From March 2 to March 20, the comprehensive cost of PE rose 23.48%. The oil - based process profit decreased significantly, while the coal - based and ethane - based process profits improved. The current PE valuation is mainly supported by the strong crude oil price [47]. - **PP Valuation**: The cost of PP has also increased, with the comprehensive cost rising 31.61% from March 2 to March 20. The coal - based process profit expanded significantly, while the oil - based, PDH, and propylene - purchased process profits were compressed, providing strong support for the PP price [55]. - **Propylene Valuation**: The core valuation of propylene is based on PDH plants. Currently, the PDH plant profit is extremely compressed, and the support for propylene is strong. The PP - PL spread has narrowed to a historical low [67][68]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **PE Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased significantly due to plant shutdowns and import reduction. Exports have increased. Although the current inventory is at a neutral level, it is expected to show a de - stocking trend in Q2. The demand side shows negative feedback, but the impact on prices is limited due to supply tightening [70][71][72]. - **PP Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased due to refinery production cuts, PDH plant issues, and poor profit of propylene - purchased PP. Imports may decrease, and exports have increased. The demand side shows some resilience, and the inventory is expected to remain low in Q2 [78][79]. - **Propylene Supply - Demand**: The PDH plant operating rate is expected to decline in April, reducing propylene supply. The demand for propylene has also decreased, but the supply reduction expectation still provides support [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, which has a significant impact on various industries and commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors [9][12]. - In the short - term, the market is volatile, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each commodity, such as short - term holding, waiting for opportunities to enter the market, or hedging operations [12][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels have launched military operations. The US is considering sending troops to the Middle East, and there are also negotiations between the US and Iran [9]. - China's economic data shows positive trends. From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [9]. - The Chinese government is promoting the development of the service industry and strengthening financial risk prevention and control [9]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to wait and see due to the situation in the US - Iran conflict and focus on the capital's ability to support the market. The A - share market is oscillating upwards, with some sectors performing well, but the market turnover has reached a new low this year [12]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The situation in Iran may still have variables. Differentiate the impact of capital and fundamentals on bonds and maintain a steep thinking strategy. The money market is balanced and loose, and the economic data is positive. Pay attention to the PMI data this month and the possibility of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut [13]. 3.3 Black 3.3.1 Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for rolled products has declined in some downstream industries, but the export and the orders of steel mills are acceptable. The supply of steel mills is increasing slightly, and the cost of raw materials is strongly supported. The short - term market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to hold the sold wide - straddle options and wait for opportunities to short at high prices [15][16]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The price increase is mainly due to the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the market sentiment is high, but there is a risk of price decline if the sentiment premium fades [17]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloys - The possibility of manganese - silicon production cuts in April is high, but the endogenous motivation for production cuts is insufficient. It is recommended to short after the price rises. Silicon - iron may rise further due to the sentiment of manganese - silicon, but the view of shorting at high prices remains unchanged [18]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, it is recommended to try to buy on dips for far - month contracts. The short - term price fluctuations are affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy prices. The supply of soda ash is slightly reduced due to short - term maintenance, and the cold - repair expectation of glass production lines is increasing [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - The short - term copper price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation has signs of easing but still has high uncertainty, and the accelerating inventory depletion provides some support for copper prices [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is affected by the disturbance of the ore end, and the sentiment is strong. It is a variety with a strong fundamental and solid logic in the non - ferrous sector. There is an opportunity to buy on dips [23]. 3.4.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon continues to oscillate without obvious supply - demand drivers, and it is advisable to operate within a range and sell wide - straddle options. Polysilicon is in a weak oscillation, and caution is required in operation [25]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level due to the impact of external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The overall cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact on the crude oil market and the USDA cotton planting report [28]. 3.5.2 Sugar - The sugar price oscillates and rebounds due to the supply pressure and the increase in import costs. The global sugar supply surplus is shrinking, and the domestic sugar price is supported by the inverted import profit [30]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the egg price increase slows down, and the market still has an upward expectation, but the inventory is high, and the futures market maintains a bearish view [33]. 3.5.4 Apples - The high - quality apple supply is tight, and the market will continue to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the出库 progress in the producing areas and the sales situation in the sales areas [34]. 3.5.5 Pigs - For futures, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The spot market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the live - stock inventory is expected to decline [35]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and the supply risk is increasing. The market is concerned about the resumption of navigation in the strait. The price of crude oil has risen [35]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - The domestic fuel oil will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [37]. 3.6.3 Plastics - The price of polyolefins is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cuts are expanding, and the short - term trend is strong, but the long - term trend depends on the end of the war [38]. 3.6.4 Rubber - The domestic rubber in Yunnan is starting to be harvested, and the raw materials are increasing. Although it is affected by synthetic rubber and is slightly strong, it is necessary to be cautious in unilateral chasing. Hold the strategy of narrowing the RU - NR spread [40]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - The current price is mainly driven by the cost and may still have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the energy price fluctuations and the war situation [41]. 3.6.6 Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term. Pay attention to the supply and transportation of methanol in Iran [42]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is affected by multiple factors. It is advisable to maintain an intraday wide - range oscillation strategy. Pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict [43]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - The asphalt price follows the oil price. The demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to decrease rapidly [44]. 3.6.9 PVC - The previous rise of PVC was due to the increase in ethylene - based costs caused by the Iran war. The actual production cuts are less than expected, and there is a risk of a callback. It is advisable to be cautious [45]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The cost of the polyester industry chain is supported by the high - level oil price, and the supply is shrinking, but the downstream negative feedback is emerging. It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions [46]. 3.6.11 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG has risen significantly due to the US - Iran war. It is expected to maintain a high - level and high - volatility state, and investors should be cautious [47]. 3.6.12 Pulp - The port inventory of pulp is increasing, the import cost is falling, and the market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to the inventory situation and the price increase of finished products [48]. 3.6.13 Logs - The supply of logs is expected to decrease in the short term, and the price may rise steadily. Pay attention to the downstream demand and the port arrival volume [50]. 3.6.14 Urea - For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the cost increase and the rise of agricultural product prices. For the near - month contracts, follow the policy. The spot market is in a tight balance [51].

Market News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the March PMI data on March 31, 2026, with the February manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, and the non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The export tax rebate for photovoltaic and some products will be officially canceled starting April 1, 2026, aimed at guiding industrial transformation and upgrading, and addressing changes in the international trade environment [4] - China will implement a preferential tariff rate on certain imported goods originating from the Republic of Congo starting April 1, 2026, to deepen economic and trade cooperation with Africa [5] - Geopolitical fluctuations are increasing volatility in global risk assets, with international oil prices showing an upward trend since late February, significantly impacting global liquidity and inflation expectations [6] - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, planning to lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to support the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7] Sector Matters - The semiconductor storage sector is gaining attention as the domestic SSD leader, Dapu Micro, plans to open subscriptions this week, with expectations of explosive growth in the enterprise SSD market due to increasing demand from AI models [9] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates, which is expected to increase export costs by approximately 13% [10] - Domestic airlines, including Spring Airlines, will raise fuel surcharges for domestic flights starting April 5, 2026, in response to rising international oil prices [11] - The application fields for metal composite materials are expanding, driven by demand from high-end equipment manufacturing [13] - The energy sector is showing strong resilience, with rising oil prices boosting the valuation of oil and gas extraction companies [14] Individual Company News - China Petroleum reported a 4.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share [16] - Mingde Biology plans to acquire 100% of Wuhan Bikaier's equity in cash, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary [17] - Tianshan Aluminum expects a 107.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of 2026 [18] - Sanor Bio plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million and 300 million yuan [19] - Nanjing Panda reported a net profit of 11 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [20] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 29 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 1.334 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 37.488 billion yuan [22] - The peak lock-up expiration date is March 30, with 16 companies releasing shares worth a total of 31.962 billion yuan, accounting for 85.26% of the week's total [22] New Stock Calendar - Three new stocks will be issued this week, including Youyan Composite on March 30, Saiying Electronics on March 30, and Dapu Micro on April 3 [26] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests maintaining a focus on China's advantageous manufacturing sectors while awaiting April's decisive policies [29] - Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the market despite recent adjustments, viewing them as normal technical corrections in the early stages of a bull market [30] - Dongwu Securities highlights geopolitical risks as a core pricing factor, recommending a balanced investment approach [32]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Iran conflict has exceeded initial expectations of resolution within four weeks, evolving into a "fight while negotiating" scenario, characterized by extreme strategic gamesmanship [1]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The US military is preparing to seize Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, aiming to cut off Iran's economic lifeline without occupying territory or engaging in a prolonged conflict [2][10]. - The US plans to deploy up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, while Iran has mobilized over 1 million combat personnel in response [2]. - Negotiations between the US and Iran are at an impasse, with the US demanding the reopening of the Strait and resolution of nuclear issues, while Iran seeks guarantees against future conflicts and compensation [2][9]. Group 2: Signs of De-escalation - There are indications of a potential de-escalation, as US Vice President Vance stated that the US has no intention of remaining in Iran and will withdraw after addressing current issues [3][10]. - Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to a historic low of 36%, coinciding with rising anti-war sentiments and protests in the US [3][12]. - The conflict has led to unexpected outcomes, including a surge in oil prices and military expenditures, with the US requesting an additional $200 billion for military budgets [3][12]. Group 3: Future Scenarios - The future of the conflict hinges on three potential scenarios: 1. Substantial negotiations leading to a de-escalation and a dignified exit for the US, resulting in a significant drop in energy prices and easing inflation concerns [4][20]. 2. A prolonged psychological battle with both sides accumulating leverage, leading to high volatility in oil prices and global markets [4][24]. 3. A strategy of deception aimed at prolonging the conflict, potentially resulting in a long-term war and a global energy crisis reminiscent of the 1970s [4][30]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The conflict has caused significant fluctuations in global asset prices, with oil prices experiencing a dramatic drop of over 9% before rebounding due to ongoing tensions [11]. - High oil prices are exacerbating inflation in the US, with Brent crude rising from $70 to nearly $120 per barrel, impacting consumer prices and economic growth [13][14]. - The potential for a prolonged conflict could lead to a significant economic downturn, with the risk of stagflation and recession looming if oil prices remain elevated [13][15].

Group 1 - Oil prices continue to rise, while gold and silver prices decline. Brent crude oil increased by 0.3% to $112.6 per barrel, COMEX gold fell by 1.8% to $4,492.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped by 2.8% to $67.6 per ounce [1][47][54] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.1%, with most sectors experiencing declines. Communication services, information technology, and financials fell by 7.2%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively, while energy, materials, and utilities rose by 6.2%, 4.2%, and 2.9% [2][9] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the South Korean Composite Index down by 5.9% and the Istanbul Stock Exchange down by 2.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $837.4 billion as of March 25, 2026, with net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds falling to $5.16 billion [65][71] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $516 billion, lower than the $553.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. Total expenditures were $1,923.5 billion, compared to $1,835.6 billion last year [71][72] - The market anticipates a 72.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged, a significant increase from the previous week's 64% [101][106] Group 3 - Japan's CPI for February showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) rising to 1.7% [110][113] - The U.S. jobless claims remained stable, with initial claims at 210,000, aligning with market expectations, and continuing claims at 1.819 million, lower than the anticipated 1.848 million [116][119]