Group 1 - The central bank governor of Israel indicated that the economic forecasts are subject to both upward and downward risks due to the developments in geopolitical situations [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is entering a data-intensive period, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data being a key focus that will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, it may strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - In Europe, speeches from European Central Bank officials and economic data releases from the Eurozone will be important indicators for the euro's performance [1] Group 2 - The ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar provides emerging market currencies with a rare opportunity for recovery, particularly for those with strong fundamentals [2] - The combination of the dollar's historical weakness, easing geopolitical risks, and a return of market risk appetite is reshaping the global currency landscape [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, developments in geopolitical situations, and the divergence in economic fundamentals across countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and central bank gold purchasing behaviors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key factor affecting gold prices. Recent poor ADP employment data did not lead to a clear indication of rate cuts from Powell, diminishing the likelihood of a July cut and leaving a 75% probability for September [2]. - Rising U.S. Treasury yields have made government bonds more attractive to investors, reducing the appeal of gold [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Situations - Geopolitical tensions significantly impact the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. A calming situation in the Middle East has led to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, causing gold prices to drop [2]. - However, the complexity of geopolitical issues suggests that any easing may be temporary, and renewed conflicts could quickly increase demand for gold [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchasing Behavior - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold affects supply, demand, and market confidence. According to the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves [3]. - Recent data indicates zero growth in China's gold reserves for May, and India's plans to increase import duties may lead to market panic among retail investors [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are under pressure due to unclear Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a calming geopolitical landscape with uncertainties, and changing central bank purchasing behaviors [4]. - Long-term prospects for gold remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and complex economic conditions, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, providing some support for prices [4].

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance in June, with the US indices collectively rising, led by the Nasdaq[4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new historical highs, while the Dow Jones approached its historical peak[4] Economic Indicators - The US May PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while the core PCE index hit 2.7%, the highest since February 2025[4] - Consumer confidence in the US declined, with the Conference Board's index dropping to 100.4 in June, slightly above the market expectation of 100[4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index weakened significantly, falling from above 110 at the beginning of the year to around 97 currently[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield, which peaked near 4.9% earlier in the year, has shown a trend of stabilization and decline[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times in the second half of the year has risen to nearly 60%[4] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected in September, October, and December, following recent comments from Fed officials[4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on undervalued large-cap stocks in manufacturing, consumption, and technology sectors, as small-cap stocks have seen significant gains recently[4] - The strong performance of established companies, such as Nike post-earnings, suggests potential for recovery in the sector[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by easing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, and a shift in fund flows from gold ETFs [1][2]. Geopolitical Situation - The recent easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has weakened the safe-haven appeal of gold. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing great power competition continue to pose long-term geopolitical risks that may support gold prices in the future. Following the ceasefire agreement, COMEX gold futures experienced a drop of over 2% [1]. Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are inconsistent. The latest CME "FedWatch" indicates an 81.9% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by September. Stronger-than-expected PCE data and tariff policies from the Trump administration may delay the rate cut timeline, suppressing gold price rebounds. However, if subsequent economic data shows weakness, it could strengthen demand for gold as a safe haven [1]. Fund Flows - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with North American and Asian funds leading the decline. This marks the first monthly net outflow from global gold ETFs, with total assets under management decreasing by 1% month-over-month. The shift in fund flows is putting pressure on the gold market [1]. Market Outlook - Gold is currently in a short-term downward trend due to reduced market risk appetite stemming from geopolitical easing and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies. However, long-term factors such as global debt issues and great power competition may reactivate gold's safe-haven attributes. Future expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts could also drive gold prices higher. Short-term attention should be on the breakout situation in the $3250 - $3280 range, as well as the outcomes of tariff negotiations on July 9 and Federal Reserve policy developments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot prices have been consistently stronger than futures since June, leading to heightened attention from industry chain enterprises, with the PTA basis average value rising by 40% year-on-year as of June 26 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strengthening of the PTA basis is primarily due to a tight supply-demand structure, with polyester plant operating rates maintaining at 90%, the second-highest level of the year, indicating strong downstream demand [1] - In June, approximately 200,000 tons of PTA were de-stocked, continuing the de-stocking trend from the second quarter, while the main suppliers have slowed down their shipment pace, creating a seller's market [1] - The current PTA social inventory is at a neutral to low level, with tight circulating inventory further supporting the strong PTA basis [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Potential Risks - Despite the current strength of the PTA basis, there are differing opinions on its sustainability, with expectations of potential production cuts in the polyester sector due to profit losses and inventory buildup [2] - Polyester production is expected to be 6.6 million tons in July, with PTA consumption potentially decreasing by 70,000 tons, and further reductions are anticipated in August during the demand off-season [2] - Key variables to monitor include geopolitical changes and oil price fluctuations, as well as the execution of production cuts in the polyester industry and the commissioning progress of new PTA facilities [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Projections - The elasticity of the PTA cost side is also noteworthy, with a near-term strong performance expected due to low inventory supporting the basis and industry chain profits [3] - However, in the long term, the commissioning of new PTA facilities and reduced maintenance plans in the second half of the year, combined with the seasonal demand downturn, may limit the upward price potential of PTA [3] - The supply-demand structure of PX is currently better than that of PTA, and any unexpected maintenance of PX facilities could impact PTA prices positively [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a high opening but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.17% to 24,284.15 points and a total trading volume of HKD 275.115 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose 3.2% over the week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.76% and 4.06%, respectively [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) reached a new high, closing up 3.6% at HKD 58.95, contributing 58.62 points to the Hang Seng Index, following the launch of its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, which saw significant pre-order success [2][7] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Alibaba Health (00241) up 6.35%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.17%, while China Life (02628) and China Resources Land (01109) saw declines of 2.97% and 2.55%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaomi's YU7 orders boosting its stock, while Alibaba saw a slight decline [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to rise, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 7.71% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.78%, driven by rising copper prices amid a squeeze in the London Metal Exchange [3] - The internet healthcare sector performed well, with Ping An Good Doctor rising over 8% and Alibaba Health up over 6% [3] AMC Sector Activity - The AMC sector saw significant gains, with China Cinda (01359) up 7.03% and CITIC Financial Assets (02799) up 2.38%, following announcements of asset management plans [4] - Analysts noted that long-term funds are increasingly seeking high-dividend assets, which may stimulate further activity in the banking sector [4] Notable Stock Movements - Saturday's Fortune (06168) surged 33.83% to HKD 40.15, driven by strong demand in the gold market and positive sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market [8] - Juzi Bio (02367) rebounded 5.75% to HKD 54.25, following announcements of share buybacks by its controlling shareholder [9] - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) rose 4.67% to HKD 4.48, after announcing plans to enter the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sectors with a budget of USD 100 million [10] Weak Performers - Hong Kong Travel (00308) fell 25.63% to HKD 1.48, as the company undergoes strategic reviews without any confirmed decisions [11] - Rongchang Bio (09995) dropped 6.17% to HKD 55.55, attributed to market disappointment over its recent business development transaction [12]

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不急于降息，使市场对7月降息预期降温，转而押注9月降息。高利率环境下，非 生息资产黄金价格受压制。同时，美国经济数据有韧性，实际利率上行增加黄金持有成本，美元阶段性 走强也打压国际金价。 技术性抛售与市场情绪 金价持续上涨积累大量获利盘，中东局势缓和及市场预期转变后，多头集中获利离场致黄金回调。且金 价跌破关键支撑位，引发程序化交易平仓，加剧市场抛压，出现"多杀多"踩踏效应，加速金价下跌。 走势展望 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为774.06元/克，上涨0.12%。 国际黄金价格报3327.0美元/盎司，下跌0.63%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 地缘政治局势 当地时间6月24日，以色列和伊朗达成停火协议，市场避险情绪迅速降温，资金从黄金等避险资产撤 离，转投风险资产，导致黄金价格大幅下跌。不过停火协议脆弱，双方互指违约，特朗普批评更添变 数，若冲突重启，避险需求将推动金价上涨。 美联储货币政策 目前黄金市场多空因素交织。地缘政治不确定性为金价提供一定支撑，但美联储货币政策及技术性抛售 压力又使其承压。短期来看，黄金或维持震荡格局，关注周五PCE ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11195 | -30 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 36383 | 28760 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 700 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR ...