Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching historical highs despite signs of easing geopolitical tensions, indicating a shift in the underlying logic driving gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditionally, geopolitical tensions increase gold's safe-haven demand, while easing tensions typically exert downward pressure; however, gold prices remain strong even as risks diminish [1] - The recent weakness of the US dollar has provided crucial support for gold priced in dollars, despite a slight rebound from its lows [1] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are key variables influencing both the dollar and gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows the US economy maintains some resilience, with a slight upward revision in Q3 GDP growth and a moderate rise in core inflation indicators [1] - Despite this, market participants seem more focused on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, shifting policy emphasis towards supporting economic growth [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have broken through the upper boundary of an upward channel formed since October of the previous year, signaling enhanced upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators are currently in a strong zone, although another widely watched momentum indicator shows that prices have entered an overbought territory, which may lead to increased short-term volatility or a consolidation phase [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention is shifting towards the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, where any information regarding economic assessments and policy outlook could impact market expectations and asset prices [4] - The current gold market reflects a combination of macroeconomic expectations and technical high-level consolidation, with the potential for price adjustments as the market digests recent gains [4] - Future price performance is expected to depend on the ongoing interplay between macroeconomic data and signals from major central banks [4]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices declined due to geopolitical easing and EIA data showing inventory accumulation [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals were strong as Trump's statements disrupted global order [2] Copper - Overnight LME copper oscillated and rose at the end, with inventory increases and a suggestion of short - selling [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate, with inventory changes and a support level at 23,800 yuan [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It followed SHFE aluminum, with low market activity and cost increases in some areas [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina had over - supply, with cost drops and a weak outlook [6] Zinc - High overseas gas prices supported zinc prices, but weak domestic demand limited the rebound [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level, while stainless steel faced challenges in high - level transactions [9] Tin - Overnight tin prices oscillated at a high level, affected by precious metals and with inventory changes [9] Lithium Carbonate - It oscillated at a high level, with weak downstream acceptance and slow inventory reduction [10] Industrial Silicon - Futures were driven by supply contraction expectations, but demand was weakening [11] Polysilicon - It showed a strong trend, with potential price increases due to supply cuts and downstream demand [12] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur followed crude oil down, while high - sulfur remained strong, affected by geopolitical factors [20] Asphalt - Cost supported asphalt, but weak demand led to an expected oscillatory - strong trend [21] Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Related Products Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices rebounded slightly, with inventory and demand changes [13] Iron Ore - The overnight iron ore market oscillated, with supply and demand factors in balance [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Both showed slight rebounds, with carbon supply abundance and downstream pressure [15][16] Manganese Silicon - Prices rebounded slightly, with manganese ore price increases and demand changes [17] Silicon Iron - Prices rebounded, affected by policies and with changes in supply and demand [18] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Futures prices were oscillating strongly, with production and demand changes [22] Methanol - The market was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [23] Pure Benzene - Night session prices rose significantly, with supply reduction and demand increase [24] Styrene - Supply was tight, with good sales and export support [25] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply was tight, while polyethylene and polypropylene had different supply - demand situations [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC was oscillating strongly, and caustic soda had high - inventory and high - production issues [27] PX and PTA - They continued to rise, with different outlooks in the short and medium - term [28] Ethylene Glycol - Production and demand decreased, with a long - term pressure and short - term improvement expectation [29] Short Fibre and Bottle Chip - Short - fibre prices followed raw materials, and bottle - chip had capacity pressure [30] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Inventory might increase, with low valuation and potential supply changes [31] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Rubber supply decreased, inventory increased, and the strategy was to go long on rebounds [32] Soda Ash - It faced supply - demand surplus, with a short - term follow - macro and long - term short - selling strategy [33] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were affected by policies and South American harvests [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US policies were positive, and Malaysian palm oil had improved fundamentals [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - They might be slightly boosted, but import policies limited the upside [36] Soybean No.1 - Prices rebounded, with attention on policy and spot transactions [37] Corn - Supply was relatively sufficient, and futures were expected to oscillate [38] Live Pigs - Futures rebounded slightly, and prices were expected to have a low point next year [39] Eggs - Futures rose significantly, and the long - term strategy was to buy on dips [40] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [41] Sugar - International and domestic production differences affected prices, with short - term pressure [42] Apples - Futures were oscillating, with attention on demand and inventory removal [43] Wood - Prices were low, supported by low inventory [44] Pulp - Futures rose slightly, with inventory and demand factors, and a light - long strategy [45] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share indexes rose, with different performances in futures contracts, and a complex outlook [46] Treasury Bonds - Futures slightly declined, and a short - short - bond strategy was suggested [47] Group 7: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot prices were expected to decline, and futures were likely to oscillate [19]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remained stable after a previous increase, with the highest price at 1498 CNY/gram and the lowest at 1432 CNY/gram [1] - The price difference between high and low gold prices in stores was 66 CNY/gram, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Various gold store prices were reported, with notable changes including an increase of 3 CNY/gram for Lao Miao and a decrease of 3 CNY/gram for Zhou Sheng Sheng [1] Group 2 - International gold prices reached a historical high of 4887.82 USD/ounce before closing at 4831.59 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1.45% increase [4] - The price of gold experienced a slight decline to 4823.59 USD/ounce, with a decrease of 0.17% as of the latest report [4] - Geopolitical tensions eased, particularly with comments from U.S. President Trump regarding cooperation with NATO and the situation in Ukraine, which contributed to a reduction in market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/22 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/15 | 59.19 | 63.76 | 61.29 | 1.94 | 0.68 | -4.57 | 1.73 | 178.38 | 11.16 | 220.83 | 28.99 | | 2026/01/16 | 59.44 | 64.13 | 61.66 | 2.28 | 0.67 | -4.69 | 1.44 | 178.52 | 10.85 | 223.76 | 29.85 | | 2026/01/19 | - | 63.94 | - | 2.28 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：地缘冲突缓和，铜价震荡整理 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：印尼能矿部表示将2026年镍矿RKAB配额调整至2.5亿至2.6亿吨，利多靴子落地，后市可继续关注印尼修改HPM公式等政策方向。不过印尼淡 水河谷表示其配额不难满足三大HPAL项目原料需求，企业与政府之间的博弈可能仍会影响后市RKAB政策走向。但向前看，镍市基本面缺乏进一步矛盾， 配额收紧预期前期已price-in，短期方面关注有色板块市场情绪氛围，中长期关注印尼RKAB配额补充变更情况。 操作上，镍不锈钢区间操作。沪镍2603参考区间130000-150000元/吨。SS2603参考区间13500-15500元/吨。 重要声明：本资讯由期货公司研究发展部分析师团队完成，资讯中的信息均来源于公开 ...

对于联邦政府的赤字，特朗普表示，已经削减了1000亿美元的联邦开支，而美国出口额增加了1500亿美元。 对于格陵兰岛，特朗普表示，格陵兰岛是北美的一部分，这是美国的领土。它是国家战略安全所必需的，寻求立即谈判收购格陵兰岛，不会动用武力夺取格 陵兰岛。 "我们从未要求过任何东西，也从未得到过任何东西。除非我决定用过度的力量，否则我们可能什么都得不到。但我不会那样做。现在大家都在说，哦，太 好了。因为人们以为我会用武力。我不需要用武力。我不想用武力。我不会用武力。"特朗普在演讲中说。 早上好，先关注下 美国总统 特朗普的最新表态。 当地时间1月21日（周三），美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯发表演讲。他在演讲中提及美国经济、美联储主席、格陵兰岛等多个热门话题。 在演讲中，特朗普表示，美国通胀已被击败，核心通胀率为1.5%，预计2025年第四季度经济增长率为5.4%；美国经济正以国际货币基金组织预测速度的两 倍速度增长，相信他的政策能让经济增长更高。 对于新任美联储主席候选人，特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率问题上行动太迟了，在不久的将来宣布新的美联储主席人选。 对于委内瑞拉和石油产量，特朗普表示，美国石油日产量增加7 ...

21日，现货黄金价格一举突破4800美元／盎司关口，逼近4900美元／盎司，再创历史新高。 多家机构发布了最新预测。 Kitco黄金调查：华尔街机构对黄金短期走势分歧明显（50%看涨、25%看跌、25%持平），而散户仍坚 定看涨（78%）。 "本轮金价上涨的主要原因是地缘局势动荡引发的极端避险情绪。"正信期货贵金属分析师蒲祖林表示， 本月以来委内瑞拉事件、伊朗局势、美联储主席被起诉风波和格陵兰岛事件等使市场避险情绪持续升 温，资金大量涌入更具安全性的黄金和相关大宗商品。 山金期货贵金属分析师林振龙告诉记者，这一轮地缘风险的特殊性在于欧美出现裂痕——特朗普宣称对 多个欧洲国家加征关税，以胁迫获取格陵兰岛控制权，既引发美欧贸易战担忧，更动摇了北约同盟关 系，这种非常规的地缘博弈极大地动摇了市场信心。 齐盛期货贵金属分析师刘晓琳补充称，以往与黄金同步走强的美元、长端美债此次同步遭遇抛售，资金 呈现"独宠黄金"的格局，黄金作为"中性资产"的战略价值被重新定义。 展望后市，蒲祖林表示，短期来看，地缘冲突背景下的避险需求仍是黄金价格上涨的主要驱动力。特朗 普政府在中期选举年及访华前的窗口期可能再度上演"TACO"交易模式 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $56.5, or 0.44%, closing at $12,810.0 per ton on January 21, following a significant drop the previous day, driven by tight inventories outside the U.S. despite concerns over sustained demand [1] - The three-month aluminum price rose by $7.5, or 0.24%, to $3,115.0 per ton, while zinc increased by $2.5, or 0.08%, to $3,175.5 per ton [2] - The three-month tin price surged by $2,005.0, or 4.06%, to $51,417.0 per ton, marking the largest increase among LME metals [6] Group 2 - Structural tightness continues to support prices in the broader base metals market, although demand outlook remains uncertain [3] - The copper premium in the spot market rose above $100 per ton, indicating strong short-term demand, but shifted to a discount of $23.50 per ton the following day [3] - China's refined copper imports for December 2025 were reported at 298,027.32 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.19% and a year-on-year decline of 27.00% [3] Group 3 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper market surplus of 94,000 tons in November 2025, up from a surplus of 48,000 tons in October [4] - For the period from January to November 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 206,000 tons, compared to a surplus of 105,000 tons in the same period the previous year [5] Group 4 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a zinc market shortage of 7,700 tons in November 2025, an increase from a shortage of 2,800 tons in October [8] - The global refined lead market surplus narrowed to 8,900 tons in November 2025, down from 29,200 tons in October [9]

早上好，先关注下美国总统特朗普的最新表态。 对于联邦政府的赤字，特朗普表示，已经削减了1000亿美元的联邦开支，而美国出口额增加了1500亿美 元。 对于格陵兰岛，特朗普表示，格陵兰岛是北美的一部分，这是美国的领土。它是国家战略安全所必需 的，寻求立即谈判收购格陵兰岛，不会动用武力夺取格陵兰岛。 "我们从未要求过任何东西，也从未得到过任何东西。除非我决定用过度的力量，否则我们可能什么都 得不到。但我不会那样做。现在大家都在说，哦，太好了。因为人们以为我会用武力。我不需要用武 力。我不想用武力。我不会用武力。"特朗普在演讲中说。 此外，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，基于他与北约秘书长马克·吕特的会晤，他们已经就格 陵兰岛乃至整个北极地区的未来合作框架达成了一致。如果这项方案最终得以落实，将对美国和所有北 约成员国都大有裨益。特朗普表示将不会实施原定于2月1日生效的关税措施。 另外，特朗普还谈及了伊朗。他在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时称，"希望美国不 会对伊朗采取进一步军事行动"，但与伊朗相关的制裁及加征关税等措施还将持续。 特朗普称，他们（伊朗）不能搞核武器。他提到美国2025年6月对 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（1月6日至1月19日）国际油价先升后降。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 于祥明）记者1月20日从国家发展改革委获悉，按照现行成品油价格机制，自1月20日24时起， 国内汽、柴油价格每吨均上涨85元。这也是2026年国内成品油价格首次上调，若用92号汽油加满50升油箱将多花3.5元。 对于如何看待全球油市，国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测专家向上海证券报记者表示，在全球油市供应过剩的背景下， 地缘政治局势将持续扰动市场情绪。 据国家发展改革委价格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（1月6日至1月19日）国际油价先升后降。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心供图 调价周期内，受地缘政治局势变化影响，国际油价在连续多日快速上涨后出现回落，总体水平较上一轮调价周期上涨。其 中，伊朗局势是市场主要关注点。调价期初，伊朗国内局势动荡，美国表示可能对其采取军事干预，并威胁对与伊朗有业 务往来的国家加征关税，导致地缘政治风险溢价上升、油价上涨。此后，随着伊朗国内局势缓和，美国撤回干预威胁，市 场对供应中断的忧虑有所缓解，油价相应回调。以布伦特原油期货价格 ...