Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some stores showing a decline. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price dropped by 8 CNY per gram, now priced at 1328 CNY per gram, which is among the highest prices in the market [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has narrowed to 96 CNY per gram, indicating a more uniform pricing structure across different brands [1] - Detailed quotes from various gold stores show that the highest price is 1328 CNY per gram from multiple brands, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1232 CNY per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices are also showing a downward trend, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price decreasing by 5 CNY per gram to 669 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has decreased by 2.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands. For example, the recycling price for gold is 945.80 CNY per gram [2] - Other notable recycling prices include 921.80 CNY per gram from China Gold and 911.10 CNY per gram from Chow Sang Sang [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold reached a six-week high at 4264.28 USD per ounce but fell to 4230.33 USD per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 4225.18 USD per ounce, showing a minor decline of 0.12% [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have supported gold prices [4] - The market anticipates an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to keep gold prices in a strong consolidation to upward trend in the long term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The commodities market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like crude oil face short - term geopolitical - driven price boosts but long - term inventory build - up risks. Precious metals are influenced by economic data and interest - rate expectations. Base metals are affected by supply and demand fundamentals, as well as macroeconomic factors. Energy and chemical products also have their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends [1][2][3]. - **Agricultural Products and Livestock**: Agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as planting progress, weather conditions, and supply - demand balance. Livestock prices are related to production cycles and consumption seasons [35][40]. - **Financial Markets**: The stock and bond markets are influenced by macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and international market trends. The stock market shows sector rotation, while the bond market has a structured differentiation [47][48]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions boost short - term prices, but large inventory build - up is expected in the long - term. Consider shorting on price rebounds [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil cost - end fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply is affected by geopolitical risks and mid - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure may ease [21]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market has regional price differences. Demand is weak, and commercial inventory de - stocking slows. It is expected to remain weak [22]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated strongly. Silver reached a new high, while gold should be cautiously traded before breaking through the previous high. Platinum has a supply gap, and palladium is in a tight - balanced supply - demand situation. Consider buying on dips [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. The market is driven by long - term bullish sentiment. Supply is tight, and short - term long positions can be held. Monitor spot premium changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, aluminum prices oscillated at a high level. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it will test the previous high [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc output is expected to decline, and the export window is open. The bottom is well - supported, but the consumption is in the off - season, and the rebound height is limited [7]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 1.7 - 1.73 yuan/ton. Supply and demand factors have different impacts on the price [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices face resistance in the rebound. Stainless steel inventory pressure rises. High - level shorting is more reasonable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have high volatility. Supply and demand factors attract capital. Be cautious when chasing high prices [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price fluctuates violently at a high level. The market has large differences, and the fundamentals are strong [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It continues to oscillate. Supply and demand are both weak, and track capital sentiment [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market has a contradiction between trading warrants and positions. The fundamentals are weak, and beware of price corrections [13]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillate narrowly. Demand and supply are both weak, and pay attention to environmental protection policies and macro - policies [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the demand has some resilience. The price is likely to continue to rebound [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price is likely to be strong in the short - term [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rises and then falls. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounds. Supply declines, and observe the bottom support [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The price rises slightly. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Methanol**: The price rises sharply at night. The market has a multi - short game, and the high - level rise is restricted [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price oscillates weakly. The current supply pressure is large, but future supply may improve [25]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounds slightly, but the short - side pressure still exists [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The prices are weak. Supply may increase slightly, and demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range. Caustic soda is weak, and pay attention to profit changes [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA follows the cost - driven logic [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply improves marginally, but it is expected to accumulate inventory in the medium - term [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is normal, while Argentine planting is slow. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal supply is loose [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is supported by domestic factors, and palm oil has supply - demand dynamics and price trends affected by multiple factors [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed supply eases, and the prices are expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: Domestic soybeans oscillate strongly. Pay attention to US soybean sales and South American weather [38]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are affected by supply - demand mismatch and policy factors. Short - term high - level oscillation, and limited medium - term rebound [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton exports decline, and domestic cotton supply pressure is not large. Pay attention to commercial inventory and sales progress [42]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and domestic sugar production expectations are good [43]. - **Apple**: Apple prices oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to inventory reduction [44]. - **Timber**: The price oscillates. Low inventory supports the price [45]. - **Pulp**: The price rises slightly. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. It may oscillate in a range [46]. Livestock and Eggs - **Pig**: Pig prices continue to adjust weakly. A second bottom - testing is likely in the first half of next year [40]. - **Egg**: Egg futures have a differentiated trend. Do not chase the high price of far - month contracts [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - shares rise unilaterally, and the futures index rises. Short - term macro - liquidity is uncertain, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillate. Participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties [48]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The index drops, and the 12 - contract is expected to be weak. The 02 - contract's trend depends on spot performance, and far - month contracts are bearish [20].

换资前言： 方向对了不怕路远，用时间见证实力，用实力赢得未来，让信任成为利润，用利润解除疑惑。市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要 逆势抄底，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放大，搞的吃不 好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上金晟富的节奏来试试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（12月1日）亚洲时段，现货黄金继续保持涨势，一度刷新高点至4243.68美元/盎司，美联储降息预期成为金价上涨的核心引擎，地缘政治局势增添金 价的不确定变量，调查显示，多数分析师和散户倾向于看涨黄金未来一周走势。现货黄金在上周五（11月28日）强劲冲高，涨幅达到1.5%，触及两周新高 4226.56美元/盎司，最终收报4219.20美元/盎司。与黄金上涨相呼应的是美元的持续走弱。上周美元指数下跌0.69%，创下7月21日以来最大单周跌幅。这种 势头直接源于市场对美联储降息的押注，因为降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力。疲弱的就业数据进一步加剧了这种预期，尽管美联储内部 ...

11月27日，铂、钯期货在广期所上市交易。当日，铂主力PT2606合约涨6.25%，至430.30元／克；钯主 力PD2606合约涨1.53%，至370.60元／克。次日，二者分别收报435.55元／克和371.55元／克。 截至11月28日收盘，铂期货总持仓量为8926手。其中，PT2606合约持仓量为8048手，PT2608合约持仓 量为643手，PT2610合约持仓量为235手。同期，钯期货总持仓量为2697手。其中，PD2606合约持仓量 为2550手，PD2608合约持仓量为94手，PD2610合约持仓量为53手。 11月27日和28日的两个交易日，铂期货累计成交91311手。其中，PT2606合约累计成交86293手， PT2608合约累计成交4118手，PT2610合约累计成交900手。同期，钯期货累计成交45094手，其中 PD2606合约累计成交43091手，PD2608合约累计成交1715手，PD2610合约累计成交288手。 铂、钯期权于11月28日上市交易，上市首日成交偏谨慎，预计持仓量和成交量将随时间推移而逐步上 升。铂期权当日持仓量为823张，成交量为1358张，成交额为3455. ...

Economic Fundamentals - Economic growth reflected by GDP growth rate influences currency demand and exchange rates, with stable growth attracting international capital and pushing exchange rates up, while slow growth or recession exerts depreciation pressure [1] - Inflation rates affect purchasing power; higher inflation compared to other countries leads to decreased confidence in the currency, resulting in downward pressure on exchange rates [1] - Interest rates are closely linked to exchange rates; higher interest rates attract capital inflow, increasing currency demand and supporting exchange rate appreciation, while lower rates can lead to capital outflow and suppress exchange rate performance [1] Monetary Policy - Central banks use monetary policy as a tool to regulate exchange rates, with the direction and intensity of policy having a direct impact [1] - The revised Foreign Exchange Management Regulations in 2025 enhance the macro-prudential management system, allowing the central bank to stabilize exchange rates through foreign exchange reserves and market operations [1] - Tight monetary policy can enhance currency attractiveness and promote appreciation, while loose policy increases money supply and lowers interest rates, leading to depreciation expectations [1] International Balance of Payments - The balance of payments, particularly the current account, reflects a country's external economic balance; a persistent surplus indicates higher demand for the currency, leading to a strong exchange rate, while a deficit exerts depreciation pressure [2] - Capital and financial accounts show cross-border capital flows; sustained net inflows increase demand for the currency, supporting exchange rate strength, while outflows create pressure [2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical stability is crucial for attracting international capital; political turmoil or increased policy uncertainty can lead to capital outflow and currency depreciation [2] - Sudden events like geopolitical conflicts or natural disasters can trigger market risk aversion, causing investors to shift to traditional safe-haven currencies, leading to short-term appreciation of those currencies and depreciation of affected currencies [2] Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment and speculative behavior significantly influence short-term exchange rate fluctuations; expectations of currency appreciation can lead to buying pressure, while depreciation expectations can trigger sell-offs [2] - Large-scale speculative trading can amplify short-term volatility, especially in high liquidity conditions [2]

Group 1 - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 81%, driven by recent comments from Waller and Daly, with only 16 days remaining until the Fed's final policy meeting of the year [1] - Upcoming economic data releases, including retail sales, employment indicators, and core PCE, will significantly influence market sentiment and policy direction. Weak data may strengthen rate cut expectations, while strong data could dampen these expectations, potentially putting pressure on gold prices [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability, continue to provide implicit support for gold as investors seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - Analysts from FPG suggest that the ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve and instability in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East will keep the buying base for gold solid. This indicates that gold is likely to maintain a high trading range and may experience significant price movements as year-end approaches [2] - The gold market is at a critical decision-making juncture, with dovish sentiment within the Fed increasing and market expectations for a rate cut exceeding 80%. Gold prices are approaching a breakout point, with upcoming economic data and Fed communications expected to determine whether gold can move beyond its current trading range [3] - If the Fed initiates a rate cut as anticipated, gold prices could break above the current range and target the $4,150–$4,200 area. Conversely, if the Fed opts to maintain rates, market sentiment may shift to caution, leading gold prices to seek support in the $3,980–$4,000 range [3]

Core Points - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced starting from November 24, 2023, due to the decline in international oil prices [1][3] - The price adjustments include a decrease of 70 yuan per ton for gasoline and 65 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a reduction of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.06 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [3][4] - The logistics industry will benefit significantly, with estimated fuel cost savings of approximately 106 yuan per heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers before the next price adjustment [3][4] Industry Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicates that international oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to oversupply and reduced geopolitical risk premiums [4][6] - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC, predict a supply surplus in the oil market for the next two years, with the IEA raising its 2026 surplus forecast to 4.09 million barrels per day [4][6] - Geopolitical developments, such as the U.S. pushing for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and increased military tensions in the Caribbean, may further impact oil supply risks and market sentiment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience their tenth decline of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices projected to drop by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a new price era for gasoline in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The new round of price adjustments for refined oil will take effect on November 24, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by 0.05 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.06 yuan per liter respectively [1]. - The average price of the crude oil varieties referenced for domestic refined oil pricing is currently at 61.68 USD/barrel, reflecting a change rate of -1.21% [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The international oil market is facing a downward trend due to expectations of oversupply and reduced geopolitical risk premiums, as indicated by major energy agencies [2]. - The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026 to 4.09 million barrels per day, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with potential for further declines in domestic refined oil prices in the next adjustment cycle [3]. - Factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to keep international crude oil prices under pressure, influencing future domestic pricing strategies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of economic data and Federal Reserve policies in determining future trends in the gold market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the end of the week, spot gold closed at $4,064.90 per ounce, down $12.41 or 0.31% for the day and down $20.21 or 0.49% for the week [1]. - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, with a strong support level at $4,000 per ounce and initial resistance at $4,100 [1][2]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices showing a "roller coaster" pattern, briefly dipping below $4,000 before rebounding [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policies - The market perceives a greater than 70% chance of a rate cut next month, but economists suggest a more uncertain outlook [2]. - Recent employment data indicates a trend of job cuts, with an average of 2,500 employees laid off weekly in the private sector [2]. - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes suggest a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with concerns that further cuts could risk inflation [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a phase of adjustment after reaching a historical high of $4,381, with a potential for further declines if key support levels are breached [3][5]. - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices oscillating between $4,000 and $4,100, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Strategies for trading gold include short positions around $4,100 and long positions near $4,000, with specific stop-loss measures recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics over short-term predictions influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [3][5][19]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Short-term predictions of gold prices are challenging and often unreliable due to various factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical stability, and profit-taking by investors [5][7]. - The correlation between interest rate expectations and gold prices has weakened, making it difficult for investors to rely on traditional analysis methods [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Traditional pricing logic for gold has become less effective, necessitating a focus on supply and demand factors [9][19]. - Gold supply has remained stable, with annual supply levels between 4500 tons and 5000 tons since 2015, primarily driven by mining and recycling [13][14]. - Demand for gold is influenced significantly by investment needs and central bank purchases, which can fluctuate by hundreds of tons annually [14][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Investment Demand - Central bank purchases of gold have surged due to geopolitical tensions, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the US dollar [15][16]. - Investment demand for gold has increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth of 87% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a viable asset [16][17]. - The article suggests that the growing investment demand could drive future increases in gold prices, as more investors allocate funds to gold [17][19].