石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-29 市场情绪偏强，期货盘面大幅上涨 市场分析 1、1月28日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3410元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨130元/吨，涨幅 3.96%；持仓175279手，环比上涨11938手，成交454575手，环比下跌265014手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3550元/吨；山东，3130—3300元/吨；华南，3250—3300元/吨； 昨日BU期货盘面大涨，我们认为有来自成本端、基本面和资金面等多重因素的刺激。从成本端来看，近日油价偏 强运行。一方面，美国寒潮造成石油产量下滑，哈萨克斯坦滕吉兹油田复产进度偏慢，供应端存在阶段性利多； 另一方面，近期伊朗局势升温，美国官方表示已派遣军舰到中东地区，市场担忧美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打 击，原油地缘溢价攀升。就沥青自身基本面而言，当前市场处于供需两弱格局。虽然终端消费已进入淡季，但炼 厂开工率与放货量同样较少，局部流通货源偏紧。此外，由于美国逐步控制委内瑞拉石油资源，马瑞原油对国内 炼厂的发货量大幅下滑，稀释沥青贴水远月报价显著上涨，沥青原料成本存在抬升预期。此外，由于市 ...

最后，近期化工板块有明显的资金流入迹象，石油沥青作为价格绝对位置不高、且原料端存在收紧预期 的品种，可能会吸引部分非产业资金流入，从而放大了市场的涨幅。 往前看，我们认为盘面上涨有实质性利好推动，但这轮涨幅较大，一定程度超出产业方预期，带动基差 明显走弱，背后可能包含资金与宏观面的影响。基于地缘与资金博弈的不确定性，短期建议保持谨慎， 前期投机性多头头寸如有剩余可适当止盈。现货持有方可以考虑适当卖出套保，锁定部分价格涨幅。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 华泰期货能源组 昨日国内石油沥青期货出现大幅上涨，截至下午收盘时，主力合约BU2603涨幅达到3.96%。 从昨日上涨背后的驱动来看，我们认为有来自成本端、基本面和资金面多重因素的刺激。从成本端来 看，近日油价偏强运行，昨日开始再度大幅上涨。一方面，美国寒潮造成石油产量下滑，哈萨克斯坦滕 吉兹油田复产进度偏慢，供应端存在阶段性利多；另一方面，近期伊朗局势升温，美国官方表示已派遣 军舰到中东地区，市场担忧美国和以色列对伊朗发动军事打击，原油地缘溢价攀升。 就沥青自身基本面而言，当前市场处于供需两弱格局。虽然终端消费已进 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core View The short - term macro situation outweighs the fundamentals, and the market continues to be relatively strong. The short - term trading logic of the oil market has shifted to the geopolitical premium of Iran. The chemical industry is also running strongly under the influence of sector sentiment, crude oil cost support, and the inflow of non - industrial and macro funds. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations have declined, demand has weakened, and EIA weekly inventories have increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and the medium - term fundamentals remain loose and pessimistic. However, the short - term trading logic has shifted to the geopolitical premium of Iran. The subsequent geopolitical situation may develop in three ways, and the first two are more likely. The strategy is to wait for cooling signals and cooperate with technical analysis to short at high levels [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term structure at the hourly level is unclear. It has increased in volume and reached the upper edge of the shock range of 460. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors have led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is pressure for maintenance devices to accelerate recovery and increase production in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a significant reduction in positions at high levels [6]. - Technical Analysis: Styrene shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It tested the previous high today but fell back with a reduction in positions in the late session. The short - term (hourly) support is at the 7530 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [6]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive increase in space after the profit of styrene has expanded, and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a significant reduction in positions at high levels. In the medium term, the overseas downstream production capacity of pure benzene is accelerating de - capacity, and the demand is weak, increasing the surplus. The domestic imports are expected to remain at a high level, and import pressure is the biggest negative factor [9]. - Technical Analysis: Pure benzene shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 5930 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [9]. (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase in synthetic rubber prices and follows the passive movement of synthetic rubber [13]. - Technical Analysis: Rubber shows a medium - term shock structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support is at the 15780 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [13]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic production of butadiene is still at a high level in the same period. The demand is also stable, and the domestic fundamentals have not changed much. However, the cold wave in Europe and the United States has pushed up overseas oil and gas prices, and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices has led to a contraction in overseas butadiene supply, pushing up international butadiene prices. Short - term cost push and the significant inflow of funds into the chemical sector last week have pushed synthetic rubber to be relatively strong in the short term [18]. - Technical Analysis: Synthetic rubber shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 12800 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [18]. (6) PX - Logic: In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is strong before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. In the short term, although there is a negative feedback logic from the decline in textile polyester, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the push of rising crude oil costs due to geopolitical sentiment have made it relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [22]. - Technical Analysis: PX shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly level has ended. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today and tested the 15 - minute pressure at the 7400 level. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound below the pressure in the 15 - minute small cycle [22]. (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak. Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period due to weak demand in the off - season, there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction in downstream polyester production. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the push of rising crude oil costs due to geopolitical sentiment have made it relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the end of the impact of Iran's geopolitical situation [23]. - Technical Analysis: PTA shows a medium - term upward structure at the daily level, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly level has ended. It tested the 15 - minute pressure at the 5370 level today. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound below the pressure in the 15 - minute small cycle [24][26]. (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive still weak. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [28]. - Technical Analysis: PP shows a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 6650 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has begun seasonal inventory reduction, but the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback from the early shutdown and production reduction of MTO devices make the fundamentals weak. However, the recent resurgence of geopolitical sentiment in Iran, the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk, and the significant inflow of funds into the chemical sector last week have pushed methanol to be relatively strong in the short term [32]. - Technical Analysis: Methanol shows a medium - term downward and short - term upward structure at the daily level. It increased in volume with a reduction in positions today. Attention should be paid to the short - term support at the 2255 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [32]. (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the sentiment of the chemical sector in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [34]. - Technical Analysis: PVC shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term shock structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [34]. (11) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak. There is pressure for seasonal inventory accumulation, the supply operation is at a high level, and there is a negative feedback logic from the reduction in polyester production. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [37]. - Technical Analysis: EG shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It rebounded with a reduction in positions today. Attention should be paid to the short - term support at the 3825 level. The strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [37]. (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak. The pressure of new production capacity release combined with the off - season demand makes the supply - demand drive still weak. However, the inflow of funds into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have made it relatively strong in the short term. The sustainability depends on when the funds reduce positions at high levels [41]. - Technical Analysis: Plastic shows a medium - term downward structure at the daily level and a short - term upward structure at the hourly level. It increased in volume today, and the short - term support has moved up to the 6815 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle [41]. (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still show high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, and the surplus pattern continues. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and month - on - month, and the pressure of new production capacity release still exists. The total demand is still weak. Although the inventory of soda ash has slightly decreased due to the pre - holiday replenishment demand of downstream enterprises, the current total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period in history. Under the surplus pressure, without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually repaired downward, and the 05 contract should maintain a short - selling idea on the disk [42]. - Technical Analysis: Soda ash shows a short - term downward structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at the 1215 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the short - term hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at the 1215 level [44]. (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda still shows a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak expected demand from alumina). With sufficient comprehensive profits from chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to reverse [45]. - Technical Analysis: Caustic soda shows a short - term downward structure at the hourly level. It oscillated within the day today, and the short - term pressure is at the 2000 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the short - term hourly cycle and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns bullish [45].

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-28 地缘局势尚不明朗，情绪溢价有所回落 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.57%，报2692元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.35%，报3165 元/吨。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近日中东局势升温，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。但截至周二尚未发生大规模断供事件，昨日 油价回落，带动FU、LU盘面回调。 高硫燃料油是伊朗出口的主要油品，因此FU对于伊朗局势的发展相对敏感，短期波动较大。站在自身基本面的角 度来看，近期市场结构边际改善，现货贴水、月差与裂解价差明显走强，下游需求表现相对良好，俄罗斯与伊朗 供应则面临地缘冲突的潜在威胁。但如果伊朗局势缓和，市场不具备持续走强的动力。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场矛盾有限，主要跟随原油端被动上涨。站在供需层面，近期随着Dangote与阿祖尔炼厂 装置动态变动，尼日利亚与科威特供应出现较大回升。此外，东西价差走阔后2月份套利船货量可能回升，市 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-28 地缘溢价回调，市场阻力因素仍存 2、 2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷627美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，丁烷617美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4822元/吨，跌91元/吨，丁烷4745元/吨，跌91元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷619美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，丁烷609美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4761元/吨，跌91元/吨，丁烷4684元/吨，跌91元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近日中东局势升温，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。但截至周二尚未发生大规模断供事件，昨日 内外盘LPG回调，国内现货价格涨跌互现。 由于LPG是伊朗出口的主要油品之一，且大部分出口到我国，因此市场对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，美 国寒潮也对LPG存在利多。但如果排除地缘和季节因素，LPG市场内生性上行驱动相对有限。一方面，高企的原料 进口成本压制了下游PDH等装置的利润，从而造成需求负反馈，PDH装置检修已经出现增加，带动开工率与原料 需求下滑；另一方面，醚后碳四与民用气价 ...

地缘略有降温，能化回落调整 行情综述： 油：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加，但隔夜伊 朗外长与美国特使威特科夫互致信息，涉及多项议题。早盘特朗普也 表示认为伊朗确实想要达成协议。后续路径演变有三: 1.军事施压下 通过外交途径重启谈判，地缘风险解除，溢价回吐。2.美一轮空袭后 伊朗再度表演式回击，复刻 2025 年 6 月"午夜之锤"行动前后影响， 仍是可控局面。3.连续大规模空袭，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡（可能性 较低，暂不考虑）。重点关注 1 和 2 可能 ,等待降温信号出现与技术 配合逢高空思路。 化工：化工近期仍是板块情绪+原油成本支撑+非产业资金/宏观 资金流入下偏强运行，短期同样关注伊朗地缘影响何时结束。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美炼厂开工回落需求走弱，EIA 周库存连续两周大幅累库， 短期基本面走弱，中期基本面维持宽松偏悲观。但盘面短期交易逻辑 转向伊朗地缘溢价，近一周美军在中东部署力度加大，局势升温风险 短期支撑原油走出偏强走势。伊朗地缘方面虽美军在中东部署增加， ...

原油日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原油现货市场日报 | 极端天气 | 美国大部分地区遭遇严寒天气，提振供暖需求并中断供应，推动该国天 | | --- | --- | | | 然气价格延续惊人涨势，午间飙升 40%。 | | | 周末席卷美国的大规模冬季风暴严重冲击油气生产商，以及将原材料加 | | | 工成汽油至塑料等各种产品的工业工厂 | | 贸易物流 | 印度石油公司高管周二表示，在减少俄罗斯原油进口后，这家印度最大 | | | 炼油企业已承诺从四月起的新财年增加巴西原油采购量。 | | | 一船石脑油已抵达委内瑞拉海岸，这是自华盛顿方面扣押该国领导人尼 | | | 古拉斯·马杜罗以来首批运抵的货物，也是重振这个南美国家原油生产 | | | 的关键一步。 | | | 知情人士透露，哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油田运营方、西方能源巨头已 | | | 在国际仲裁案中败诉，需向该国政府赔偿高达 40 亿美元。 | | | 欧佩克+代表们表示，在应对全球供应过剩和地缘政治风险浪潮之际， | | | 该组织周日开会时预计将坚持下月维持石油产量稳定的计划。 | | | 国际与当地企业高管及律师表示，委内瑞拉拟议的石 ...

1、\t1月26日地区价格：山东市场，4440-4440；东北市场，3940-4100；华北市场，4250-4430；华东市场，4170-4340； 沿江市场，4680-4980；西北市场，4300-4360；华南市场，4740-4820。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-27 地缘风险攀升，盘面强势反弹 市场分析 2、\t2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷639美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，丁烷629美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4913元/吨，涨140元/吨，丁烷4836元/吨，涨140元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷631美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，丁烷621美元/吨，涨19美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4852元/吨，涨141元/吨，丁烷4775元/吨，涨141元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期中东局势显著升温，美国上周五加大了对伊朗的施压，对运输伊朗石油的船只实施更多制裁，并宣布一支舰 队正驶向这个中东国家。伊朗不同于委内瑞拉，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木 兹海峡，因此 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月27日电华泰证券最新研报指出，2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次 引发市场供应风险担忧，1月23日WTI/Brent期货价格收于61.07/65.88美元／桶，较12月末上涨 6.4%/8.3%。地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，2026年第二至第 三季度油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调2026 年布伦特原油均价为65美元／桶（前值62美元／桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于 量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元／桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将 显现配置机遇；油价筑底后库存损失减少，炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下的景气反转。 ...

截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1772.23点，较前一交易日上涨62.85点，涨幅3.68%；中证商品期货指数收报2443.85点，较前一交易日上涨 86.67点，涨幅3.68%。 贵金属继续飙升双轮驱动油气强势走高 1月26日商品市场的热点仍在持续火热的贵金属市场以及近期快速反弹的能化板块。截至收盘，除沪银飙升近13%领涨商品市场以外，铂、钯分别跟涨超 9%、8%，金价涨幅虽不足4%，但仍历史性首次触及1150元／克上方。近期除了地缘局势继续给贵金属带来避险买盘以外，美国总统特朗普周末对加拿大的 关税威胁，进一步强化了市场"卖出美国"的交易倾向，加上美日联手干预日元贬值令美元兑日元汇率单日大跌，也加剧了美元的跌势。此外，市场对美联储 潜在新任主席人选的鸽派政策倾向或加速美联储宽松的押注，亦构成了强化贵金属看涨热情的重要利多。因此，环顾整个市场，对于贵金属而言，除了过于 一致的看涨预期可能成为潜在风险以外，市场暂时没有看到真正构成遏制贵金属多头热情的实际因素。在此背景下，即便机构多将短线获利回吐视为贵金属 价格波动的诱因，但仍维持对贵金属多头配置的策略建议。 贵金属市场火热也带动资金开始向估值洼 ...