光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 737.0 | 742.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 717.0 | 722.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -43.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 763.0 | 765.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline due to the realization of inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, while silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the price - supporting sentiment from the ore end [2][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward [2][15]. - Coking coal is expected to see a valuation decline due to the repeated supply expectations [2][16]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 763.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The open interest decreased by 11,250 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and HC2601 was 3,242 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%). Open interest and trading volume changed. Spot prices in different regions had minor fluctuations. Basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased in quantity and price. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data in November and October showed various trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the price of manganese ore rose. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11]. - **News**: There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in November. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%, and there were new capacity plans [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased by 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [16]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different log contracts decreased slightly. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of various log types were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: China decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. November is likely to see high imports, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it doesn't affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380, and attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2082 to 2070, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price reached 2603 on November 10 [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: Import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 also changed during this period. The主力基差 remained at - 40 on November 11, and the import profit decreased slightly [1]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions changed. For example, the price of East China LL decreased from 7025 to 6950. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 12073, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from 12669 to 12073 [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis of the 09 contract, import profit, and other indicators are also provided. The import profit is around - 200, and the basis in North China and East China is - 110 and - 50 respectively [6]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of polypropylene in different regions and related raw materials changed. For example, the price of East China PP increased from 6425 to 6375. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 14629, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 14629 [6]. - **Profit and Market Indicators**: Export profit,主力期货 price, and basis are also included. The export profit was - 18 on November 5 and - 11 on November 10, and the basis remained at - 100 [6]. PVC - **Price and Cost Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of PVC in different production methods and regions changed. For example, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4610 to 4570. The price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807 [6]. - **Profit and Basis**: Export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis are also provided. The basis of high - end delivery products decreased from - 70 to - 90 [6].

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 10/10 | 11/5 | 11/7 | 11/10 | 11/11 | 日度变化 | 間 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | 172 | -16 | 12 | -6 | -2970 | -2964 | - | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 72 | 124 | 142 | 134 | -3050 | -3184 | 1. | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | 62 | 134 | 182 | 194 | -3050 | -3244 | | | | 12-01 | 28 | -2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 3 | | | | 12-03 | 6 | -40 | -38 | -46 | -39 | 7 | | | | 01-02 | -4 | -19 | -16 | -17 | -14 | 3 | | | STET | BU主力合约(01) | 3328 | 3166 | 3048 | 3036 | 3050 | 14 | | | | ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is likely to increase with some refineries planning to resume production, while the demand will gradually weaken. The crude oil price is also oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is showing a weak downward trend [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month-on-month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year-on-year [1]. - Last week, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - In the East China region, the supply and shipments decreased significantly last week. The national shipments decreased by 6.79% to 308,800 tons week-on-week, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Jincheng Petrochemical plan to resume production, which will increase asphalt production [1]. - The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not changed fundamentally. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating [1]. - The concentrated release of long-term low-price resources from refineries has led to a significant decline in the asphalt basis in Shandong recently, which is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has continued to decline, and the asphalt futures price has shown a weak downward trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.56% to 3,050 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,015 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,064 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 14,840 to 193,828 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -40 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and PetroChina Qinhuangdao stopped asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but remained negative. The fixed - asset investment in road transportation from January to September 2025 decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly rebounding from -3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. The fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 increased by 1.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - As of the week of November 7, most of the downstream industries' operating rates increased, with the road asphalt operating rate rising by 1 percentage point to 34% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - As of the week of November 7, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.1% compared with the week of October 31, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [4].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Contract Price and Spread 2.1 Futures Contract Price - I05 closed at 742.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 closed at 722.0 yuan/ton today, unchanged from the previous day [3] - I01 closed at 765.0 yuan/ton today, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3] 2.2 Futures Contract Spread - The spread between I05 and I09 was 20.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - The spread between I09 and I01 was -43.0 yuan/ton today, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - The spread between I01 and I05 was 23.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [3] 3. Basis Data 3.1 Basis Data of Different Iron Ore Varieties - For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 71 yuan/ton today, down 5 yuan from the previous day [5] - The basis of BRBF was 78 yuan/ton today, down 2 yuan from the previous day [5] 3.2 Changes in Basis - Most varieties showed a decrease in basis compared to the previous day, while the basis of Wugang Standard fines increased by 1 yuan [5] 4. Changes in Deliverable Brands and Rules 4.1 Addition of Deliverable Brands - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added starting from the I2202 contract, with a brand premium of 0 [10] - Four more brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Wugang Standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands, with a brand premium of 0 [10] 4.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while the rest of the deliverable brands have a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [10] 4.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums - The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set [10] - An X value was introduced to dynamically adjust the premium of iron element indicators, with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [10] 5. Variety Spread 5.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB lump and PB fines was 102.0 yuan/ton today, down 5.0 yuan from the previous day [12] - The spread between Carajás fines and Newman fines was 106.0 yuan/ton today, down 2.0 yuan from the previous day [12] 5.2 Variety Spread Changes - Most variety spreads showed a decreasing trend compared to the previous day, while some spreads such as PB fines - Super Special fines increased [12] 6. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications [23]

1. Index Trends - On November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to close at 4018.6 points, with a trading volume of 960.589 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13427.61 points, with a trading volume of 1213.865 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 433.798 billion yuan. Its opening price was 7568.75, closing price was 7563.25, the highest price was 7592.76, and the lowest price was 7515.68 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.22%, with a trading volume of 371.311 billion yuan. Its opening price was 7357.34, closing price was 7343.8, the highest price was 7384.79, and the lowest price was 7289.77 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.35%, with a trading volume of 593.977 billion yuan. Its opening price was 4688.12, closing price was 4695.05, the highest price was 4695.18, and the lowest price was 4654.21 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.51%, with a trading volume of 139.907 billion yuan. Its opening price was 3043.51, closing price was 3053.86, the highest price was 3054.55, and the lowest price was 3030.23 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 21.37 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as household appliances, pharmaceuticals and biotech, and basic chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 15.89 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotech, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, electronics, and power equipment pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 16.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery, power equipment, and electronics pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.51 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like machinery and electronics pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 57.03, IM01 had - 142.23, IM02 had - 361.89, and IM03 had - 580.67 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 43.2, IC01 had - 107.51, IC02 had - 277.1, and IC03 had - 467.73 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.52, IF01 had - 25.0, IF02 had - 54.69, and IF03 had - 98.5 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.02, IH01 had - 1.49, IH02 had - 5.36, and IH03 had - 11.46 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM, IC, IF, and IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented in the report, including detailed values at different time points [20][21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures. They show price changes, spreads, and related market indicators for these futures on November 10 - 11, 2025 [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The reports provide data on the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as inter - period and cross - variety price differences for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF period - spot price difference was - 23.05, a change of - 3.66 from the previous day [1]. - **Percentiles**: Historical 1 - year and full - historical percentiles are given for each price difference, which can help investors understand the relative position of current price differences in history. For instance, the historical 1 - year percentile of the IF period - spot price difference was 37.20% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: The internal rate of return (IRR) and basis data are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures. For example, the TS basis was 1.5852, a change of - 0.0211 from the previous day, and the IRR percentile was 25.70% [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are presented, along with their percentiles since listing [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices, are provided for gold and silver. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram on November 10, a rise of 14.72 yuan from November 7 [4]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The reports show basis spreads, cross - variety ratios, and changes in interest rates and exchange rates. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 81.81 on November 10, a decrease of 1.30 from the previous value [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Index and Price**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS for European and US - West routes, as well as the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), are provided. Futures prices and basis spreads for different contracts are also given. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 on November 10, a 24.50% increase from November 3 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Data on container shipping fundamentals, such as global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality, and overseas economic indicators, are presented. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3338.60 million TEU on November 10, a marginal increase from the previous day [5].

生猪：现货矛盾继续累积，短期震荡 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11600 | | 100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12560 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 11955 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11555 | | 90 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].