Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [2][3] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has postponed the release of the October CPI report, raising concerns that it may not be published at all, further complicating discussions on interest rate decisions [2][3] - The absence of official data may provide a rationale for policymakers concerned about inflation to maintain interest rates in December, despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut [2][3] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies on data for decision-making; the lack of recent employment and inflation data undermines the foundation for policy decisions [3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, and the absence of official data may strengthen the position of those focused on inflation risks [3][4] Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the October CPI year-on-year increase may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [4] Impact of Government Shutdown - The timing of the government shutdown's resolution will be crucial for the Fed's December decision, as it will determine how quickly economic data can be updated [5][6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, ranging from receiving outdated reports to having multiple recent employment reports available before the December meeting [6] Scenarios for Employment Reports - Scenario one involves receiving an outdated September employment report, which is unlikely to influence a rate cut decision [6] - Scenario two considers the release of both September and October reports, which could complicate the decision if the unemployment rate remains stable [6] - Scenario three anticipates the release of three complete employment reports, where the unemployment rate will significantly influence the Fed's decision on whether to maintain or cut rates [6]

Group 1 - The ADP employment report for October indicates a significant rebound in private sector employment, with an increase of 42,000 jobs, while September's data was revised to a decrease of 29,000 jobs [1] - Economists had previously predicted a rebound of 28,000 jobs for the private sector, and the initial report for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs [1] - The ADP report is compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and is noted to differ from the official employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1] Group 2 - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed the release of the October non-farm payroll report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [2] - There are concerns regarding the ability of the BLS to compile a complete October non-farm employment report due to the suspension of data collection during the government shutdown [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $3,992.40 per ounce, nearly unchanged from the previous day's close of $3,992.90, with prices rising above $4,000 in early trading [1] - The price of gold futures has increased by 62.4% compared to one year ago, with a 0.8% increase from the previous week and a 1.6% increase from the previous month [4][8] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report indicated that the U.S. economy added 42,000 private jobs in October, following a decline of 29,000 jobs in the prior month [2] - A report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, the highest for that month since 2003, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] Group 3: Interest Rates and Gold Demand - Gold demand typically increases when interest rates fall, as gold does not earn interest [3] - Current projections show a 67% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again in December [3]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate range to 3.75-4.00% [5] - There were internal disagreements among committee members regarding the extent of the rate cut, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1][7] - The FOMC emphasized the need to monitor labor market conditions, inflation expectations, and international financial situations closely [3][10] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for economic support with concerns about inflation [5][10] - The end of balance sheet reduction on December 1 is a significant milestone, indicating a shift in monetary policy strategy [5][10] Internal Disagreements - There were two dissenting votes during the meeting, highlighting differing views on the pace of monetary easing among committee members [1][7] - Member Stephen Milan has consistently advocated for a more aggressive approach, while Jeffrey Schmieding has favored a more cautious stance [1][7] Economic Outlook - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding moderately, with job growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a stable but not robust labor market [1][9] - The committee reiterated its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [9][10] Future Monitoring - The FOMC will continue to assess economic data and risks, leaving room for potential policy adjustments in response to changing conditions [10][11] - The upcoming data releases will be critical in determining the future direction of monetary policy, particularly following the rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - Economic indicators show moderate expansion in the U.S. economy, with slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [1] - The decision for the rate cut is supported by a combination of lower-than-expected inflation and weak employment data, alongside increasing liquidity pressures in the money market [1][2] Group 2 - The poor performance of economic data, particularly employment figures, is cited as a primary reason for the Fed's rate cut [2] - Despite the lack of timely non-farm payroll data, a national economic survey indicated widespread low labor demand across various regions and industries [2] - Future rate cuts are anticipated, with expectations for another cut in December, but uncertainty remains due to potential political influences and inflationary pressures from tariffs [2][3] Group 3 - The increase in U.S. imports due to tariff policies has created inventory buffers that have mitigated inflation transmission to consumers [3] - As the effects of excessive imports fade, inflationary pressures may rise, potentially limiting the Fed's rate cut capacity in 2026 [3] - The current rate cut may have a weaker stimulative effect compared to previous cycles, partly due to diminished refinancing effects [3] Group 4 - The initiation of the Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to open up more operational space for China's monetary policy, potentially leading to further rate cuts and increased market liquidity [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADP has estimated an average increase of 14,250 jobs in the U.S. [1] - ADP released preliminary job estimates for the four weeks ending October 11 [1] - ADP will continue to publish monthly employment reports and compensation insights [1] - ADP will also provide weekly preliminary job estimates [1]

Core Insights - ADP reports an average addition of 14,250 jobs per week over the past four weeks, indicating a recovery from negative job growth in September [1][5] - The new data will provide a four-week average of weekly employment changes with a two-week lag, enhancing the understanding of labor market dynamics [2][3] - This preliminary data serves as a guide to the monthly National Employment Report (NER), which will be revised monthly [4][5] Employment Data Overview - The four-week moving average suggests a total monthly job growth of approximately 55,000, contrasting with a reported loss of 32,000 jobs in September [5] - ADP's near real-time employment data aims to deliver a more detailed and dynamic view of job creation and loss [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing an unprecedented data shortage ahead of its policy meeting on October 28-29, primarily due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has hindered access to critical official economic statistics [1][3] - A significant third-party employment data source, ADP, has ceased supplying data to the Federal Reserve, further complicating the already unclear economic landscape in the U.S. [3] Group 1: Data Shortage Impact - The government shutdown has resulted in a lack of key economic statistics, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy [1] - The interruption of ADP's data supply exacerbates the situation, as employment data is a core consideration for monetary policy [3] Group 2: ADP's Data Supply Suspension - ADP has stopped providing aggregated management data to the Federal Reserve, citing its commitment to public service and the need to protect client confidentiality [3] - Efforts by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to persuade ADP to resume data sharing have not yet been successful [3] - Powell has previously indicated that while private data sources cannot fully replace official statistics, ADP serves as a reasonable alternative in the employment data sector [3]

Core Insights - The current trading environment for silver shows significant volatility, with prices fluctuating between $47.88 and $49.31 per ounce, indicating a potential for both upward and downward movements in the near term [1][5]. Market Data - As of October 23, 2025, the latest prices for silver are as follows: - Spot silver: $49.26 per ounce - Silver T+D: ¥11,463 per kilogram - Paper silver: ¥11.288 per gram - Shanghai silver futures: ¥11,467 per kilogram [2]. Economic Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to increase in September. Core CPI is projected to reach a monthly rate of 0.3%, rounding to 0.4%, with both overall and core CPI annual rates close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [3]. - The Federal Reserve has lost access to timely employment data from ADP, which has historically provided a comprehensive dataset covering 20% of the private sector workforce. This loss may impact the Fed's ability to gauge the labor market accurately [3][4]. Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown slight upward movement due to stable support at $47.80, with bullish momentum indicated by the relative strength index. However, prices remain under negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day EMA, suggesting a potential for a sharp bearish correction in the short term [5]. - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $50.00 and $49.00, while support levels are at $46.00 and $45.00 [5].

Core Viewpoint - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with the final decision heavily influenced by Chairman Powell and Governor Waller [1] Group 1: Powell's Position - Powell has reiterated a dovish stance, indicating a desire to cut rates in October and December, but emphasizes that decisions will depend on economic data [2] - He acknowledges strong GDP and spending data but remains cautious about labor market risks, suggesting that a decline in job vacancies could lead to higher unemployment [2] Group 2: Waller's Position - Waller, a dovish member of the FOMC, has shown signs of a subtle shift in his stance, expressing a desire to cut rates but also acknowledging the need to monitor strong GDP data against a weak labor market [3] - He recognizes that inflation, excluding tariffs, is around 2.5%, which may influence future rate decisions [3] Group 3: Divergence within the FOMC - The FOMC currently exhibits a clear divide, with the Board leaning dovish while regional Fed presidents tend to be more hawkish [4][5] - This division increases the risk of dissenting votes during potential rate cuts in October and December [7] Group 4: Market Predictions - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point cut in October, followed by a pause in December, contingent on stable employment data and persistent inflation [8] - Upcoming economic reports on inflation and employment will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts or adopt a more cautious approach [10]