Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 5222.30, 89.98, 2366.00, 1793.00, 67.02, and 13396.00 respectively. The price changes are 0.00, 0.00, 111.00, 24.00, 0.00, and -62.00 respectively [2]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.64, 1.18, 1.35, 156.09, and 1.74 respectively, with all changes being 0.00 [2]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 11207.59, 309.44, and 450.45 respectively. The change in SHFE Silver inventory is 2.84, while others remain unchanged [3]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1097.90 and 16079.74 respectively, with no changes [3]. - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver are 1 and 2 respectively, with no changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not mention an industry investment rating [6] 2. Core Views - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the spot market is strong. Domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market is entering a bearish season, so a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market is in a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. However, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions. Automobile production and sales are declining, while tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding [6][8][25] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, and the Qingdao area is experiencing inventory accumulation [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [22] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend. The basis weakened on March 2nd [6][10][37] - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main force has a net long position, and the long positions are increasing [6] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] - **Risk Points**: Global economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend [6][37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the ongoing fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Some plants have shut down or have plans to reduce production. Methanol is difficult to move up or down, and the MTO profit caps the upside. It is currently appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2] - For plastics, the futures market fluctuates, the spot market remains stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of PE in May is expected to face pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market remains stable, the basis is weak, and the export volume declines slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply in May and later is expected to be slightly excessive [4] - For PVC, the basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average, and the overall profit is low. The total inventory is still moderately high, and the long - term outlook is poor [6] Group 3: Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows changes in power coal futures, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profits, etc. from February 13 to 27, 2026. The daily changes in some prices are significant, such as a 35 - unit decrease in the Jiangsu spot price [2] Plastics - Price data includes Northeast Asia ethylene, prices of different types of plastics in different regions, import profits, etc. from February 13 to 27, 2026. The daily change in the Northeast Asia ethylene price is 10 units, and the主力 futures price drops by 71 units [2] PP - Price data covers Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, PP prices in different regions, import and export profits, etc. from February 13 to 27, 2026. The daily change in the Shandong propylene price is - 50 units, and the主力 futures price drops by 64 units [4] PVC - Price data includes Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, prices of different production methods in different regions, import and export profits, etc. from February 13 to 27, 2026. The daily change in the Northwest calcium carbide price is - 50 units, and the price of the East China calcium carbide method drops by 70 units [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, but downstream sentiment was cautious with only essential purchases and overall trading was light. Supply increased in January, and inventories at home and abroad continued to build up, indicating sufficient market supply. The nickel ore market had a strong bullish sentiment, with a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices rebounded, supporting the cost line and causing a slight upward shift. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory increased significantly. If inventory digestion is not effective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The Israel - Iran conflict over the weekend may drive up nickel prices due to increased risk aversion. Overall, the outlook for nickel is bearish, but the price of nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventory continued to rise. The outlook is neutral, and the price of stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On February 27, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 141,560 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day; the price of the London nickel electronic contract was 17,695, down 35 from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,205 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On February 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,650 yuan, down 1,050 yuan from the previous day; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 146,700 yuan, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 138,650 yuan, down 950 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 141,300 yuan, down 800 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, and 15,050 yuan respectively [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of February 27, LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, a decrease of 1,530 tons from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,131 tons, a decrease of 27 tons. The total inventory was 341,107 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons [12]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of February 27, SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with futures inventory of 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively [11]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Regional Inventory**: On February 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons [16]. - **Futures Inventory**: On February 27, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,055 tons, a decrease of 8,695 tons from the previous day [17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On February 27, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 70.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 7.75 US dollars per ton and 8.75 US dollars per ton respectively [20]. - **Nickel Iron Prices**: On February 27, the price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,077.72 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 4.29 yuan from the previous day; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - On February 27, the traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,909 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,089 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 18,159 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The converted import price was 138,800 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, crude oil showed an oscillating upward trend, with the average price rising month-on-month. Geopolitical tensions remain, and the market anticipates OPEC+ to increase production from April. The US is more inclined to continue nuclear talks with Iran, which may lead to a decline in oil prices. Short-term international crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile [4]. - The domestic PX load remained unchanged, and its valuation followed crude oil's rise and fall. PX processing fees were stable at around $305/ton. The PX supply is expected to tighten in Q2, and there is strong support at the bottom. The PTA market is in a phase of "increasing supply and stable demand." There is an expectation of PTA maintenance in Q2, and the medium-term outlook is still upward. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday orders [4]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) plant operating rate has rebounded, and the seasonal inventory accumulation is at a high level since 2021. There is an expectation of plant maintenance and a reduction in imports in Q2, and the fundamentals are expected to improve slightly. The current price of MEG is at an absolute low, with limited downside space, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - The pure benzene port inventory has slightly increased compared to before the holiday and remains at a historical high. The downstream performance is acceptable, and the styrene operating rate is expected to increase further. Pure benzene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For styrene, the domestic operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The focus of the market is on the de - stocking amplitude after March, and the overall supply pressure of styrene is gradually increasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Group 2: Industry Data Summary Crude Oil - This week, the overall crude oil price showed an oscillating upward trend, and the average price increased month - on - month [4]. PX&PTA - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization was 93.25%, and Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.51%, both unchanged from last week. The PX - naphtha price difference was stable at around $305/ton. An East China 2 million - ton PX plant plans to shut down for maintenance from mid - March for 30 - 40 days, and another 700,000 - ton PX plant plans to conduct maintenance in early April for 50 - 60 days [6]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 5,268 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan/ton from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization was 73.66%, a 0.28% increase from last week. The in - plant inventory days were 5.47 days, an increase of 1.46 days from last week. The PTA processing fee was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from last week [13]. MEG - This week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3,639 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 66.34%, a 1.15% increase from last week. The port inventory in East China was 93.5 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week. The inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival was slightly lower than expected [18]. Polyester and Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization of the Chinese polyester industry was 77.27%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase from last week. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of polyester fiber staple fiber and polyester filament increased. The starting rate of sample weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 22.63%, a 10.87% increase from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 5.96 days, an increase of 0.15 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory was 24.23 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from last week [24]. BZ&EB - This week, the domestic capacity utilization of pure benzene was 78.87%, a 0.56% decrease from last week; the styrene capacity utilization was 74.65%, a 1.45% increase from last week. The pure benzene - naphtha price difference was around $165/ton, with little change. The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port sample in Jiangsu was 30.4 tons, unchanged from last week and still at a high level; the total inventory of the styrene port sample in Jiangsu was 15.1 tons, a significant increase of 5.48 tons from last week; the on - site inventory was 11.75 tons, an increase of 1.71 tons from last week [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash开工率 is 85.04%, up 0.32% from the previous week; the产量 is 79.09 tons, up 0.28 tons; the重质产量 is 42.3 tons, up 0.32 tons; the轻质产量 is 36.79 tons, down 0.04 tons [1] - **Float Glass**: The开工率 remains unchanged at 70.610%; the产线条数 is 209, unchanged; the产量 is 103.8365 tons, up 0.24 tons [1] Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The厂内库存 is 189.44 tons, up 30.64 tons; the重质库存 is 89.59 tons, up 13.95 tons; the轻质库存 is 99.85 tons, up 16.69 tons; the库存可用天数 is 14.26 days, up 1.09 days [1] - **Float Glass**: The库存 is 7600.8 (unit not clear, assumed to be relevant unit), up 2065.6; the库存可用天数 is 33.8 days, up 9.4 days [1] Profit - **Soda Ash**: The天然气利润 is -142.26, up 24.29; the氨碱法毛利 is -90.15, down 0.9; the联产法毛利 is -1.5, up 31 [1] - **Float Glass**: The石油焦利润 remains at 43.93; the煤制气利润 is -30.79, down 1.92 [1] Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The基差 is -40, up 10; the 1 - 5价差 is -109, up 1 [1] - **Float Glass**: The基差 is -31, up 30; the 1 - 5价差 is -159, down 4 [1] - **Arbitrage**: The纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 83, up 21; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 133, up 26 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have seen a certain increase and factored in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap from Iran remains, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. - For methanol, the downward momentum persists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main strategy is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to short - allocate [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level, the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the only short - term support is the short - term rush for exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand for polyester and chemical fibers is expected to recover as it exits the off - season. The inventory - building cycle is about to end, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory building and high operation. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 6.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.23%, at 483.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.81%, at 2987.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 4.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, at 3460.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%; SPR replenishment was 0.00 million barrels to 415.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels to 254.83 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; diesel inventories increased by 0.25 million barrels to 120.35 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 42.34 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 37 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 20 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 37.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by (55.00) yuan/ton, at 2210 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 72 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 30 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 2 yuan/ton, at 1836 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber futures increased in volume and price, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally followed the increase, but the spot price increases of butadiene and butadiene rubber were relatively small. Bulls and bears presented different views. Bulls were optimistic due to macro - level expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 108 yuan, at 4855 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 175 (+ 68) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 137 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 631 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 22 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the basis was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 1 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, gradually take profits [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons, and the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, narrowing by 11 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 45 yuan/ton, strengthening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons, the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, narrowing by 73 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, widening by 10 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 50 yuan, at 7382 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 2 US dollars, at 931 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (+ 56) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 12 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian load was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In terms of equipment, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one production line for maintenance in March. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 313 US dollars (- 7), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (+ 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 52 yuan, at 5260 yuan. The East China spot price fell 50 yuan, at 5235 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan (- 24). The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. The downstream load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. In terms of equipment, multiple units of Xin Fengming were under maintenance, a 25 - ton bottle chip unit in East China was under maintenance, and multiple units of filament and staple fiber were restarted. The terminal texturing load increased by 3% to 8%, and the loom load increased by 12% to 12%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 24 was 250.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 54 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 20 yuan to 417 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term,

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, the downward momentum remains, but the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from warehouse receipts has eased. The supply side has limited support, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - season [21]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The cost side may see a reduction in supply surplus, and the supply pressure has eased. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil [27]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is expected to pick up. The stockpiling cycle is about to end. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and there is pressure on port stockpiling. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction. There is a risk of a rebound in valuation [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 1.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.33%, at 488.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures: high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 10.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.34%, at 2943.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 41.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.18%, at 3436.00 yuan/ton. In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 1.91 million barrels to 9.89 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 23.99%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 3.03 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.12%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 7.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 20.55 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.30% [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 6 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 20.00 yuan/ton, at 2249 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 82 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol remains, but the negative factors have weakened marginally, so the downside space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips from a mid - term perspective [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 40 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 30 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 48 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 17 yuan/ton, at 1838 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Considering the expected improvement in production at the end of January, it is advisable to short - allocate [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: On the first trading day after the holiday, rubber futures saw a significant increase in positions and prices, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally increased, but the spot prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber increased less. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 86.4 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The total social inventory of light rubber in China was 43.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The inventory in Qingdao area increased by 1.81 tons to 60.93 tons, with an accelerating inventory accumulation rhythm [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. Consider opening new positions or holding existing positions for the hedge strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan, at 4963 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 131 (- 7) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2300 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 629 (+ 11) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - plant inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the reduction in supply is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in an off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax - rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term support for the fundamentals. The cost - side calcium carbide price has decreased, and the caustic soda price has rebounded. Overall, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the domestic demand is poor, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The fundamentals are poor. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The basis was - 86 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB units was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products on the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%. The EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%. The ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have both decreased, and the basis has weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The cost - side pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation on the supply side has decreased, and the styrene operating rate has fluctuated at a low level. The styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of three S products on the demand side has fluctuated and increased. The pure benzene port inventory has decreased from a high level, and the styrene port inventory has continued to decrease. At present, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6777 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6635 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 9 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons. The trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has decreased. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The polyethylene spot price has not changed, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high, reducing the pressure on the disk. On the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into operation in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, providing support for the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films on the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate has fluctuated downward [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6735 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 15 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons. The trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons. The port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 57 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the supply surplus may ease. On the supply side, there are no capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing the pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the disk price may bottom out. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 46 yuan, at 7432 yuan. The PX CFR fell 4 US dollars, at 929 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (+ 4) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was 2 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%; the Asian load was 83.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Regarding the equipment, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. The PTA load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. Regarding the equipment, Dushan Energy was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 320 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 152 US dollars (+ 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 93 US dollars (- 4) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities for downstream PTA, with a relatively low overall load center. It is expected that PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. However, overall, the supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and the mid - term outlook is good. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester start - up and raw material equipment maintenance efforts after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the trend of crude oil in the mid - term [2

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Current fundamental factors provide some upward momentum for sugar, but due to international raw sugar being pressured by the previous support level of 14 cents and weak capital flows, the rebound space is expected to be limited [3] Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: On 2026-02-25, SR01 closed at 5360 with a daily change of 0% and a weekly change of -0.65%; SR03 at 5224 (0%, -1.15%); SR05 at 5229 (0%, -0.93%); SR07 at 5238 (0%, -1.0%); SR09 at 5242 (0%, -0.87%); SR11 at 5255 (0%, -0.72%); SB at 13.99 (-0.14%, 1.60%); W at 407.2 (-0.27%, -0.22%) [4] - **Price Spreads**: SR01-05 was 131 with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 13; SR05-09 was -13 (-2, 0); SR09-01 was -118 (1, -13); SR01-03 was 136 (8, 26); SR03-05 was -5 (-7, -13); SR05-07 was -9 (1, 1); SR07-09 was -4 (-3, -1); SR09-11 was -13 (0, -9); SR11-01 was -105 (1, -4) [4] Basis Data - **Nanning Basis**: On 2026-02-24, Nanning-SR01 was -30 (-19, 39); Nanning-SR03 was 106 (-11, 65); Nanning-SR05 was 101 (-18, 52); Nanning-SR07 was 92 (-17, 53); Nanning-SR09 was 88 (-20, 52); Nanning-SR11 was 75 (-20, 43) [11] - **Kunming Basis**: Also on 2026-02-24, Kunming-SR01 was -190 (-19, 34); Kunming-SR03 was -54 (-11, 60); Kunming-SR05 was -59 (-18, 47); Kunming-SR07 was -68 (-17, 48); Kunming-SR09 was -72 (-20, 47); Kunming-SR11 was -85 (-20, 38) [11] Import Price Data - **Brazil Import Prices**: On 2026-02-25, the in-quota price was 3866 with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of -46; the out-of-quota price was 4891 (13, -59) [14] - **Thailand Import Prices**: Also on 2026-02-25, the in-quota price was 3805 (9, -98); the out-of-quota price was 4811 (12, -127) [14] Group 2: Cotton Core View - The expectation of tight supply and demand this year remains unchanged, and the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year continues to support the cotton price at a strong level. The improvement in US cotton exports and the possible decline in production in the 26/27 season will lead to tight global inventories, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton restricts the upward space, and changes in US tariff policies add uncertainty [16] Futures Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton01 closed at 15570 with no change; Cotton05 at 15285 (no change); Cotton09 at 15230 (no change);棉纱01 at 0 (-100%);棉纱05 at 21270 (no change);棉纱09 at 21140 (no change) [17] - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 803 with a daily change of -576; Cotton01-05 was 285 (-170); Cotton05-09 was 55 (115); Cotton09-01 was -340 (55); the flower-yarn spread was 5960 (85); the domestic-foreign cotton spread was 3402 (-201); the domestic-foreign yarn spread was -46 (-9) [17] Group 3: Apples Core View - The disk logic continues to revolve around fundamental and short-term delivery issues. The short-term weakening of post-festival demand suppresses the disk, but due to the support of delivery contradictions, the downside space is limited [22] Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: On 2026-02-25, AP01 closed at 8286 with a daily change of 0% and a weekly change of 2.04%; AP03 at 9350 (-1.02%, -0.7%); AP04 at 9545 (-1.29%, 1.07%); AP05 at 9705 (0%, 2.16%); AP10 at 8425 (0%, 2.57%); AP11 at 8215 (-0.64%, 1.57%); AP12 at 8235 (-0.48%, 1.43%) [23] - **Price Spreads**: AP01-05 was -1419 (-7.5%, 4.80%); AP05-10 was 1280 (-6.23%, 0.00%); AP10-01 was 139 (-17.75%, 87.84%) [23][24] Other Data - **Spot Prices**: On 2026-02-25, the price of Qixia first and second-grade 80 apples was 4 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi-commodity 70 was 4.2 (no change); Jingning paper-bagged 75 was 5.5 (no change); Yiyuan paper-bagged 70 was 2.5 (no change); Wanrong paper-plus-film 75 was 2.3 (no change) [23] - **Profit and Basis**: The disk profit was -657 (-18.99%, 34.36%); the delivery theoretical price was 9400 (no change); the main contract basis was -257 (-37.47%, 188.76%) [23] Group 4: Red Dates Core View - The production of red dates in the 25/26 season has been finalized, and the market focus has shifted to changes in the demand side. Pay attention to the post-festival replenishment demand of downstream enterprises. The overall supply and demand pattern of domestic red dates is loose, and the short-term red date price will still face downward pressure and may maintain a low-level shock [31] Price Spread and Inventory Data - **Price Spreads**: Data on red date futures price spreads (01-05, 05-09, 09-01) are presented in the report, showing historical trends from 2022 - 2026 [32][34] - **Inventory**: The report shows the sum of red date warehouse receipts and effective forecasts from 2023 - 2026 [34]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing sector in 2025 has shown resilience contrary to the expected narrative of "trade conflict = industrial recession" [1] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that global industrial output (IP) is rebounding after a period of stagnation from 2022 to 2024, with the goods sector outperforming services during intense trade tensions [1] Demand and Growth Drivers - Three key variables are identified as driving this growth: capital expenditure (especially equipment investment), a resurgence in non-tech sectors, and a shift in inventory dynamics from a drag to a lean state [3][4] - The report anticipates a 2%-3% annualized growth in global industrial output in the coming months, supported by stable end-demand and low inventory levels [3][22] Industrial Output Performance - Global industrial output is projected to grow by 2.4% year-over-year in 2025, with significant growth concentrated in the first quarter [4] - The first quarter saw a remarkable annualized growth rate of 9.4%, attributed to preemptive production and procurement due to trade conflict concerns [4] Sectoral Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see a 9.1% year-over-year growth in 2025, driven by AI enthusiasm and capital expenditure from hyperscalers [5] - Non-tech sectors are also rebounding, with a projected growth of 1.2% in 2025, reversing the previous two years of contraction [5][6] Regional Insights - Developed markets are experiencing a manufacturing revival, with the U.S. and Eurozone expected to achieve growth rates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively in 2025 [7] - The automotive sector is not the primary driver of this recovery, as other industries like aerospace and machinery are also showing improvement [9] Emerging Markets Dynamics - Emerging markets are projected to see a 3.8% year-over-year growth in commodity production, primarily driven by Asia, although this growth is unevenly distributed [10][13] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure is a significant driver of demand, with global business equipment investment expected to grow by 6.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, marking the fastest growth in three years [14][16] - The report notes that equipment investment growth is not limited to the U.S., with a notable increase in other regions as well [16] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory levels have shifted from being a drag on growth to a lean state, providing a buffer for future production increases [18] - The report suggests that low inventory levels may necessitate additional restocking, potentially leading to higher industrial output than demand alone would suggest [18] Trade Conflict and Policy Implications - Recent judicial changes regarding tariffs are not expected to significantly alter the ongoing trade conflict narrative, as the U.S. government continues to implement tariffs [21] - The report concludes that the trade conflict remains a central theme affecting business confidence and industrial performance [21] Future Outlook - The combination of lean inventory, stable end-demand, and potential demand expansion from tech to non-tech sectors supports the forecast of 2%-3% annualized growth in global industrial output [22] - However, risks remain, including a potential slowdown in tech growth and labor market stagnation impacting retail and consumer goods demand [22]