纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-24 苯乙烯去库周期结束，基差再度走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-100元/吨（+34）。纯苯港口库存27.30万吨（+1.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费126美元/ 吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费119美元/吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差181.9美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-135元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+25），苯胺生产利润789元/吨（+178）， 己二酸生产利润-1018元/吨（+0）。己内酰胺开工率69.20%（-5.37%），苯酚开工率76.00%（-3.50%），苯胺开工率 61.35%（-14.59%），己二酸开工率59.60%（+0.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差71元/吨（+61元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-190元/吨（+30元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存139300吨（+4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84550吨（+2250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率69.1%（+0.8% ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/17 | 325.12 | 368.94 | -8.40 | 594.14 | -225.20 | 22.33 | 43.82 | | 2025/12/18 | 327.47 | 369.76 | -8.26 | 593.29 | -223.53 | 22.13 | 42.29 | | 2025/12/23 | 335.28 | 383.22 | -9.15 | 611.43 | -228.21 | 20.41 | 47.94 | | ...

re 国际期货 TTGE _1X2 inks l留朗尚 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 烯数据 25 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:20017251 2025/12/23 | | | | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | | | 指标 | | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | | | WTI | 56. 15 | 56. 66 | 0. 51 | | | | | | 原油& | Brent | 59. 82 | 60. 47 | 0. 65 | | | | | | 石脑油 | 石脑油 | 534. 88 | 530. 88 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡整理。市场有部分买盘支撑, | | | | | | | | | | 和苯乙烯主力盘整理,江苏港口 ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/16 | 316.99 | 364.37 | -8.87 | 588.11 | -223.74 | 22.32 | 47.38 | | 2025/12/17 | 325.12 | 368.94 | -8.40 | 594.14 | -225.20 | 22.33 | 43.82 | | 2025/12/18 | 327.47 | 369.76 | -8.26 | 593.29 | -223.53 | 22.13 | 42.29 | | ...

板块逻辑： 对2026年商品期货的充分讨论与分析后，在主力合约相继转移至05合 约后，市场开始进入了资金主导的预期交易。聚烯烃被作为空配，期价再 创新低；PX因供需偏紧的预期，成为多配首选，利润创年内新高。这种极 致的价差也很可能因为资金的扰动出现反向波动，关注强势品种月差的阶 段性见顶。周一公布库存的三大液化品种，EB、BZ和EG，全部都实现了库 存的环比走高，BZ库存甚至环比增加5%，BZ和EB港口库存位于五年最高， EG库存也向五年中位靠拢。 原油：俄乌及委内地缘持续扰动，油价延续震荡 沥青：美委局势再度升温，沥青期价上涨 高硫燃油：地缘带动高硫燃油期价上涨 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油上涨 甲醇：沿海内地均偏僵持，甲醇震荡看待 尿素：供应需求双弱，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：负荷仍有抬升空间，现货流通宽松未改 PX：情绪助推下，PX维持偏强整理，利润持续扩张 PTA：成本提振下预期向好 短纤：上游成本支撑转强，但无法完全转嫁，利润压缩 瓶片：上游原料成本支撑价格 丙烯：现货偏强，PDH降开工预期，PL震荡 PP：检修预期提振，PP震荡 塑料：检修支撑有限，塑料震荡偏弱 苯乙烯：新增出口成交&芳烃氛围偏强，苯乙 ...

中辉能化观点 谨 慎 看 空 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， | | 原油 | | 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | 降负不足，LL | 供给弹性不足，基差持续偏弱。基本面供需双弱，停车比例未 14%，检修 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | L | 空头延续 | ...

ax 20 关注微信公众号 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月22日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 消歧失 | 狱跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 841.3 | 839.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 851.2 | 850.1 | 1.1 | 0.1% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 846.3 | 848.5 | -2.2 | -0.3% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 888.3 | 887.3 | 1.1 | 0.1% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 130.9 | et e | 69.3 | 112.5% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 93.2 | 72.6 | 20.6 | 28.4% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 88.3 | 71.0 | 17.3 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

| 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 05-09 | FU 09-01 | | 2025/12/15 | 2417 | 2474 | 2445 | -57 | 29 | 28 | | 2025/12/16 | 2368 | 2431 | 2400 | -63 | 31 | 32 | | 2025/12/17 | 2384 | 2444 | 2412 | -60 | 32 | 28 | | 2025/12/18 | 2403 | 2464 | 2431 | -61 | 33 | 28 | | 2025/12/19 | 2356 | 2415 | 2382 | -59 | 33 | 26 | | 变化 | -47 | -49 | -49 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | -- ...