Core Viewpoint - Japan may face further depreciation of the yen and rising government bond yields due to market concerns over the government's expansionary fiscal policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, yet the yen continues to decline [1][2] - Market interpretations of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments suggest that the central bank is not in a hurry to raise rates further [1][2] - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to market skepticism regarding Japan's ability to maintain fiscal order [1][2][3] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - Japan's public debt is expected to increase further, supported by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [4] - The upcoming fiscal year's budget may exceed 122 trillion yen (approximately $781 billion), requiring new bond issuance higher than the previous year's 28.6 trillion yen [4] - An economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen will be introduced to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households [4] Group 3: Bond Market and Economic Risks - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a 27-year high of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of further rate hikes and large-scale bond issuance [3][4] - If the bond market continues to sell off, the Bank of Japan may need to reassess its bond reduction plans or create a framework to assist small banks suffering from significant losses due to bond holdings [4] - Rising bond yields are identified as the biggest risk facing Japan's economy in the coming year [4]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's newly issued 10-year government bonds rose to 2%, the highest level since May 2006 [1] - On the same day, the yield reached 1.76%, marking a new high since June 2008 [3] - The highest successful bid yield for the 20-year government bond auction was 2.833%, up from 2.684%, the highest level in approximately 26 years since July 1999 [3] Group 2 - Market concerns regarding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies are leading to fears of worsening fiscal conditions, resulting in a sell-off of Japanese government bonds [3] - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, the largest decline since early April of this year [3] - The Japanese yen also depreciated on the same day as the bond sell-off occurred [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since June 2007, driven by rising interest rate expectations from the Bank of Japan and concerns over the government's fiscal discipline due to expansive fiscal policies [1][2][8]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Expectations - The 10-year government bond yield in Japan rose to 1.978%, marking a peak not seen since June 2007 [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting, increasing the short-term rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [4]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to emphasize the commitment to continue raising rates, with the pace of future increases depending on the economic response [4][5]. Group 2: Government Fiscal Policy and Concerns - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policy has raised market concerns about the government's fiscal discipline, contributing to the sell-off of Japanese government bonds [8]. - The Japanese government approved a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), which is over 30% larger than the previous year's budget, aimed at addressing rising prices and promoting economic growth [8]. - The supplementary budget will finance over 60% of its expenditures through newly issued government bonds, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The defense spending is projected to reach 2% of Japan's GDP, reflecting a significant increase in military expenditure [9]. - Analysts express concerns that the government's focus on large-scale fiscal spending without addressing revenue sources and structural reforms could lead to a depreciation of the yen, increased prices, and further decline in demand for Japanese government bonds [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since June 2007, driven by rising interest rate expectations from the Bank of Japan and concerns over the government's fiscal policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Rising Bond Yields - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield peaked at 1.978%, nearing the psychological 2% barrier not breached in nearly 20 years [1][3]. - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in yields to the Bank of Japan's increasing interest rate hike expectations [1][5]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Rate Hike Expectations - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike in the upcoming policy meeting, raising short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to emphasize the commitment to further rate increases, with the pace depending on the economic response to each hike [5]. Group 3: Government Fiscal Policies - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies are raising concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline, contributing to the pressure on government bonds [8]. - The approved supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 amounts to 18.3 trillion yen, with over 60% of the funding sourced from new bond issuances [9]. - The supplementary budget is the largest post-pandemic, aimed at addressing rising prices and promoting economic growth, with significant allocations for subsidies and defense spending [9].

格隆汇12月16日｜德国智库ZEW：预期已变得更加乐观。经过三年的经济停滞，经济复苏的机遇良 好，这一趋势也反映在市场情绪中。扩张性财政政策将为德国经济提供新动力。应对持续贸易冲突、地 缘政治紧张局势以及投资缺失的措施，很可能也将列入2026年的改革议程。 ...

韩国内阁周二通过一项法案，从明年开始将所有课税等级的企业的所得税率上调1个百分点。此举是韩 国政府正在推进的扩张性财政政策的一部分。 根据修订后的方案，应纳税收入超过3000亿韩元（2.032亿美元）的公司将按25%的税率征税，而应纳 税收入在200亿至3000亿韩元之间的公司将按22%的税率征税。 韩国内阁周二通过一项法案，从明年开始将所有课税等级的企业的所得税率上调1个百分点。此举是韩 国政府正在推进的扩张性财政政策的一部分。 根据修订后的方案，应纳税收入超过3000亿韩元（2.032亿美元）的公司将按25%的税率征税，而应纳 税收入在200亿至3000亿韩元之间的公司将按22%的税率征税。 在2022年上一届政府执政期间，韩国将最高企业税率降至24%，以帮助当地企业促进投资。 韩国主要反对党国民力量党以抑制企业投资、加重企业负担为由，反对提高税率。 该法案本月早些时候已获韩国议会批准。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 在2022年上一届政府执政期间，韩国将最高企业税率降至24%，以帮助当地企业促进投资。 韩国主要反对党国民力量党以抑制企业投资、加重企业负担为由，反对提高税率。 该法案本月早些时候已获韩国议会 ...

Group 1: Report Date - The report date is December 10, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price broke through the support level and declined rapidly. The market is expected to continue its bearish trend, and it is advisable to adopt a bearish approach and not to bottom - fish. Attention should be paid to changes in positions rather than price changes. Consider taking profits on short positions when the basis widens significantly [4][5] Group 4: Market Performance Summary - Si2601 closed at 8340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.47%, a trading volume of 323,510 lots, and an open interest of 185,271 lots, with a net decrease of 1,816 lots. SI2605 was priced at 8370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.68%, a trading volume of 205,898 lots, and an open interest of 164,602 lots, with a net increase of 32,455 lots. The top twenty long positions increased by 21,589 lots, and the short positions increased by 17,045 lots [4] - The spot prices continued to weaken. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 was 9150 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9500 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Market Outlook Summary - The bearish fundamental drivers are still insufficient compared to the decline in the futures price. The commodity index dropped significantly by 0.89%, with large declines in non - ferrous metals and coking coal and coke prices. Since last Friday, the gradually decreasing rebound highs have shown a bearish structure, and the market is expected to continue its bearish trend after breaking through the support level yesterday. Short - position funds increased consistently during the roll - over of near and far - month contracts [5] - On the supply side, it is approaching the seasonal low, and the expected output in December is about 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The weekly output of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3%. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers was 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, the alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [5] Group 6: Market News Summary - On December 9, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,528 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Experts predict that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy next year. The fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2025, and the new government debt will exceed about 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 1.3 trillion and 1.6 trillion yuan. The national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan next year [6]

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 09, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%, with a trading volume of 251,796 lots and an open interest of 187,087 lots, a net decrease of 9,856 lots. The price of the SI2605 contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.97%, with a trading volume of 141,927 lots and an open interest of 132,147 lots, a net increase of 17,042 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 10,865 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 8,913 lots [4] - Spot prices were stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Outlook - Production cuts in the southwest production areas are approaching the seasonal low, and the start - up in the northwest region is basically stable. The monthly production is expected to be around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3%, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, the alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [5] - Market attention has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the realization of the weak demand expectation. Spot prices have been slightly adjusted, but the spot price center remains stable. The polysilicon sector opened low and tumbled, driving the same - frequency weakening. At the same time, the sharp decline of major commodities on the raw material side has enlarged the downward space of industrial silicon. After breaking through the short - term support, it will test the lower edge of the range again. The high points of the rebound are gradually moving down, and the short - selling structure is initially showing. It will mainly fluctuate bearishly. Pay attention to whether the support around 8,500 yuan/ton can be confirmed for the second time [5] 4. Market News - On December 08, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,528 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [6] - Forecast of next year's fiscal policy: The deficit rate is about 4%, and the new government debt will exceed 12 trillion yuan. Many experts expect that considering the economic and social situation next year, China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, that is, a proactive fiscal policy, and the policy stance will remain "more proactive". Specifically, next year's fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2025, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will continue to be moderately increased, so that the new government debt scale next year will exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, for example, it may be between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan. This will expand fiscal expenditure. For example, the national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan next year, playing an important role in stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and benefiting people's livelihood [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 9, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while gold, silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, and coking coal futures are likely to decline with fluctuations. Glass and crude oil futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On December 9, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2603 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 107.74 and 107.61 yuan and resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan [2]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2603 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with wide - range fluctuations, with support at 111.7 and 111.5 yuan and resistance at 112.3 and 112.6 yuan [2]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 950.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram and facing resistance at 958.7 and 963.3 yuan/gram [2]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 13487 and 13365 yuan/kg and facing resistance at 13918 and 14000 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 91700 and 91000 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 93300 and 94000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22030 and 21970 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 22220 and 22300 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2550 and 2530 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2595 and 2615 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc Futures**: The ZN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22970 and 22870 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 23300 and 23400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Tin Futures**: The SN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 314000 and 310300 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 319200 and 323700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2601 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 54400 and 53600 yuan/ton and resistance at 55200 and 55700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with resistance at 97000 and 97300 yuan/ton and support at 93500 and 91700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3089 and 3074 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3123 and 3146 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3260 and 3238 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3298 and 3306 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 753 and 750 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 760 and 763 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1070 and 1050 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1110 and 1115 yuan/ton [6]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 967 and 950 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1004 and 1016 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1100 and 1080 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1137 and 1148 yuan/ton, and may hit a new low since listing [6]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel and facing resistance at 454 and 456 yuan/barrel [6]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 2422 and 2394 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2485 and 2507 yuan/ton [6]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4654 and 4624 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4678 and 4694 yuan/ton [7]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4380 and 4330 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4433 and 4445 yuan/ton [7]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2055 and 2022 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2089 and 2104 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The M2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, with support at 2768 and 2758 yuan/ton and resistance at 2795 and 2805 yuan/ton [7]. - **Corn Futures**: The C2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2227 and 2215 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2259 and 2269 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to maintain stability while making progress and improve quality and efficiency [8]. - China's total goods trade imports and exports from January to November 2025 reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the growth rate of goods trade rebounded [8]. - From January to November 2025, the national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of over 29 trillion yuan and investigated 1818 "high - income and high - profile" individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan in taxes [9]. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce, Ling Ji, held video talks with the chairmen of the German and European Automobile Industry Associations, hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case and find a solution for the global supply chain of Nexperia [9]. - Many experts expect China to continue implementing an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and an increase in the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds [9]. - Xiamen's "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes to explore the construction of a free - port - style special economic zone, promote cross - strait financial cooperation, and build a cross - strait common market [9]. - A 7.5 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the eastern waters near Honshu, Japan on December 8, 2025. The tsunami is not expected to affect China's coast [10]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9 and 10, 2025. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [10]. - US President Trump plans to sign an administrative order on AI regulation and launch an agricultural assistance program worth $12 billion [11]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October PPI data and plans to announce it together with the November 2025 PPI data on January 14, 2026 [11]. - Leaders of Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany discussed a new peace plan for the Ukraine crisis [11]. - Japan's Q3 2025 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarter - on - quarter contraction and a 2.3% year - on - year contraction. Real wages have declined for ten consecutive months [12]. - European Central Bank hawkish executive Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are on the upside and is satisfied with the market's bet on the next interest - rate hike [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The BIS warns that retail investors' "chasing behavior" is turning gold from a safe - haven asset into a speculative one, and gold and the stock market have entered an "explosive zone" [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a risk warning due to the complex international situation and large fluctuations in the precious metals market [12]. - On December 8, 2025, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell due to increased supply and weak demand [13]. - On December 8, 2025, international precious metal futures prices generally fell due to market pricing of the Fed's policy, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and profit - taking [13]. - On December 8, 2025, most London base metals prices fell, affected by the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting [14]. - On December 8, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [14][15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On December 8, 2025, major index futures contracts showed a trend of opening slightly higher, rising and then falling, and finally closing higher. They are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [15][16][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2603 had a slight increase, while the 30 - year contract TL2603 declined. They are expected to have different trends on December 9, 2025 [40][44]. - **Gold Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2602 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [46][47]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the silver futures contract AG2602 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [54][55]. - **Copper Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [57]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the aluminum futures contract AL2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [62]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the alumina futures contract AO2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [66]. - **Zinc Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the zinc futures contract ZN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [71][72]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the tin futures contract SN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [74]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the polysilicon futures contract PS2601 had a large decline. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [80][81]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 had a slight increase. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [85]. - **Rebar Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the rebar futures contract RB2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [91]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [97]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the iron ore futures contract I2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [99]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2605 declined significantly. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [103][104]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the glass futures contract FG601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [107]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the soda ash futures contract SA601 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [111]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [113]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the fuel oil futures contract FU2601 had a significant increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [119]. - **PTA Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the PTA futures contract TA601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [121]. - **PVC Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the PVC futures contract V2601 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [122]. - **Methanol Futures**: On December

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that in 2026, economic work should adhere to the principle of making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, and continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 1.675 trillion yuan, up 0.2% [7]. - Many experts expect that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and continue to moderately increase the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds, etc., making the new government debt scale in 2026 exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 9, 2025, most chemical futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil futures dropped by 2.098% to 448 yuan/ton, and the price of glass futures dropped by 2.096% to 981 yuan/ton. Only a few contracts such as 20 - number rubber, paper pulp, and LPG showed an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee analyzed and studied the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand, innovation - driven development, and risk prevention [7]. - China's foreign trade maintained growth in the first 11 months of 2025, with exports growing faster than imports [7]. - The national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of more than 29 trillion yuan from January to November this year, and investigated and recovered 1.523 billion yuan in taxes from 1,818 "high - income and high - net - worth" individuals [8]. - Domestic refined oil prices had a "two - consecutive decline", with the retail price limits of gasoline and diesel per ton reduced by 55 yuan starting from 24:00 on December 8 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 0.67% to 8,018 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term may continue to be weakly volatile [13]. - Sugar futures: On December 8, the price rose slightly by 0.34% to 5,337 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the short - term may turn to a shock, with limited upside space [13]. - Corn futures: On December 8, the price dropped by 1.57% to 2,261 yuan/ton. The supply is tight in the short - term, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up the price [13]. - Cotton futures: On December 8, the price was flat at 13,750 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, and the demand is marginally improved. The short - term is expected to be range - bound [15]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic market price is weakly running. The supply is expected to be reduced, and the demand is improving. The futures price may have a phased callback risk [15]. - Caustic soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The Shandong region is expected to be stable, and the East China region continues to be weakly running [15]. - Coking coal and coke: The supply and demand are both weak, and the short - term is under pressure and weakening [17]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: The market has a high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and copper and aluminum are running at a high level. Pay attention to macro risks [19]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in an oversupply pattern, and the contract is running at a low level [19]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The inventory contradiction is not significant, but it is temporarily dragged down by raw materials and is expected to have limited downward space [19]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures: On December 8, the three major indexes opened high and went high, and the trading volume increased. The spring market consensus is gathering. It is recommended to balance the allocation of relevant indexes [20].