Economic Overview - The economic situation for 2025 is clearer, with increased challenges and a focus on boosting domestic demand[3] - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, consistent with the previous year, to address employment and risk prevention[6] - The CPI target is adjusted to around 2%, down by 1 percentage point from the previous year, reflecting low inflation pressure[6] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is increased to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from last year, with a total deficit amount of CNY 5.66 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.6 trillion[6] - Total public budget expenditure is CNY 29.7 trillion, an increase of CNY 1.2 trillion from the previous year[7] - Special government bonds issuance is set at CNY 1.3 trillion, up by CNY 300 billion from last year, aimed at major strategic projects[9] Employment and Social Stability - The target for urban new employment is set at over 12 million, consistent with the previous year, to address the employment pressure from a record high of 12.22 million college graduates[6] - The urban survey unemployment rate is targeted at around 5.5%, maintaining the same level as last year[6] Investment and Infrastructure - Central budget investment is planned at CNY 735 billion, an increase of CNY 35 billion from last year, emphasizing effective investment[12] - Local government special bonds are set at CNY 4.4 trillion, an increase of CNY 500 billion, focusing on infrastructure and social projects[9] Real Estate Market - Policies will be implemented to stabilize the real estate market, including reducing restrictive measures and promoting the renovation of old housing[12] - The focus will remain on managing existing real estate inventory while controlling new land supply[12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Two Sessions are expected to focus on "stabilizing growth" and emphasize macro policy support to boost domestic demand, with a particular focus on enhancing consumer spending [2][3]. Economic Policy Focus - UBS's chief economist Wang Tao predicts increased fiscal spending on consumption and households, including doubling the scale of trade-in subsidies, establishing childbirth and childcare subsidies, raising basic pension payments, and enhancing government support for basic social security [2]. - Nomura's chief economist Lu Ting highlights the government's potential focus on four areas: transfer payments to local governments, funding for large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs, financial support for the real estate sector, and fiscal assistance for low-income families [3]. - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with measures to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, reduce reserve requirements and policy interest rates, and promote reasonable inflation rebound [2]. Industry Trends - The emergence of AI applications, particularly driven by DeepSeek, is expected to stimulate investment in emerging sectors like AI and cloud computing, with the AI core industry projected to exceed 17.3 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for over 30% of the global market [3]. - The focus on innovation, technology, and modernization is evident in the frequency of related terms in government work reports, indicating a strong emphasis on sectors like AI, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure expansion, and food security [3][4]. Consumption and Market Dynamics - The stock market's recovery has shown a certain wealth effect, and the real estate sector has performed slightly better than expected, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment and spending [2]. - The National Two Sessions are anticipated to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5%, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption as a key priority [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic work in 2023, with a focus on both short-term and long-term strategies to boost consumption and improve living standards [1] - Short-term measures include maintaining counter-cyclical fiscal policies, increasing spending, and adjusting the expenditure structure to focus more on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [3][4] - Long-term strategies involve continuous reforms in key areas such as the household registration system, income distribution, and social security to provide sustainable growth benefits [4][5] Group 2 - Economic forecasts suggest a stable macroeconomic performance in 2025, with a smoother quarterly fluctuation compared to 2024, although concerns about insufficient consumer demand and export pressures remain [2][3] - The need for fiscal policy to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth is highlighted, with suggestions to shift investment focus from physical assets to human capital to create a long-term mechanism for expanding consumption [3][4] - Reforms in income distribution and social security are critical for increasing household consumption, with proposals to enhance the distribution of corporate profits to residents and improve social safety nets for vulnerable groups [5][6]