智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2025年1-11月全国餐饮收入累计同增3.3%，慢于商品零售增 速4.1%延续弱复苏。与咖啡茶饮赛道受益于外卖补贴战不同，2025H1上市餐饮龙头收入受价格降价内 卷、高端餐饮政策扰动、预制菜舆论等多因素扰动增速平稳，但2025H1归母净利润同增7.5%表征经营 效能在改善。考虑到2026年餐饮龙头经营基数相对较低，伴随CPI数据反弹、潜在服务政策提振以及龙 头持续创新举措，如收入端呈现更多惊喜经营杠杆作用下板块有望在低基数下迎来触底反弹。 国信证券主要观点如下： 餐饮消费趋势：1）需求弱复苏供给出清，龙头多元举措觅增长：2025年1-11月全国餐饮收入累计同增 3.3%，慢于商品零售增速4.1%延续弱复苏。受需求端承压多数餐饮赛道2025年供给边际出清，龙头则 依托产品线扩充、借力外卖渠道等多元思路创收；2）线上渠道结构性增长：2025年即时零售大战加速 消费渗透率提升，奶茶咖啡、快餐阶段受益明显，但伴随平台竞争演进品牌方对外卖的态度也更为辩证 与理性；3）品牌塑造思路重构，会员价值凸显：在当前消费环境下，品牌打造思路也从打造单品爆款 到向供应链要效率，经营也更加注 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail and consumer services industry, highlighting a continued recovery in consumption and cyclical opportunities [1][2] - In 2025, the consumer services and retail sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with the consumer services sector showing better performance than retail [11][16] - The jewelry retail sector experienced significant growth, primarily driven by rising gold prices, while the consumption of gold jewelry faced a decline [24][25] Group 2 - The report identifies two main investment directions for 2026: the continuation of consumption recovery, focusing on high-end sectors like duty-free and gaming, and the sustained high demand for emotional and self-rewarding consumption, particularly in jewelry and trendy products [68][71] - The restaurant industry showed a faster growth rate than overall retail, with a notable increase in the number of registered restaurants, indicating a cautious approach from new entrants [34][40] - The travel sector is recovering steadily, with strong demand during holidays and a positive trend in passenger numbers for civil aviation [45][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and product differentiation in the jewelry sector, as emotional value increasingly drives consumer choices [29][25] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a rise in chain operations and a focus on cost-effective consumption, with the overall market growth projected at 9.0% from 2020 to 2024 [37][40] - The report notes that the gaming sector remains robust, with Macau's gross gaming revenue showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery in this segment [46][51]

Core Insights - The report predicts a recovery in the commercial sector in 2026, benefiting from supportive policies and a rebound in consumer demand after a bottoming out in 2024-2025 [5][6][9] Sector Outlook Duty-Free - The new duty-free policy starting in November 2025 is expected to drive a strong recovery in the duty-free sector, with a focus on China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [6][9][14] Hotels - Hotel operations showed improvement in late 2025, with expectations for growth driven by domestic demand, spring and autumn travel, and inbound tourism in 2026. Key companies to watch include ShouLai Hotel, Junting Hotel, Huazhu Group, and Atour [6][20] Catering - The catering sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, with expectations for recovery in 2026. Companies to focus on include Xiaocaiyuan, Dashishi, Yum China, and Haidilao [21][22] Tea Beverage - Leading tea beverage companies are expected to maintain good growth in 2026, with a focus on brands like Mixue Ice City, Guming, and Tea Baidao [6][25][29] Human Resources - The outsourcing industry is expected to continue steady growth, with a focus on new application scenarios and models. Key companies include Kelly Services, Beijing Human Resources, and Foreign Service Holdings [6][37] Tourism and Scenic Spots - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from holiday effects in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiuhua Tourism, Emei Mountain A, and Lijiang Shares [31][32] Supermarkets - The trend of reform in supermarkets is expected to continue in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiajiayue, Xinhua Department Store, and Yonghui Supermarket [7][39] Education - The education sector is expected to maintain a favorable trend, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on the rising demand for vocational education and exam retakes. Key companies include Xueda Education, Kevin Education, and China Oriental Education [7][45]

—— 科技产业投入守得云开见月明，市场重振对结构转型的信心。 证券研究报告 2026年餐饮行业风险排雷手册 ——年度策略报告姊妹篇 2025年12月25日 行业评级：看好 分析师 钟烨晨 联系方式 zhongyechen@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523060004 引言 浙商证券研究所认为2026年资本市场将围绕【结构转型信心重振，外需悲观彻底扭转】而展开。 —— 非美市场开疆拓土对冲关税战，美欧日财政货币双宽稳需求。 —— 系统性慢牛逐级抬高驭势而上，消费成长周期红利风格均衡。 作为年度策略的姊妹篇，浙商研究同步推出各个行业"风险排雷手册"， 换位思考年度策略最大的软肋，主动揭示市场误判的风险，前瞻研判行业最大的困难。 特别强调，风险排雷绝不是看空，而是为了更好做多，运用逆向思维强化2026年度策略观点。 2 目录 C O N T E N T S 3 年度策略风险排雷 01 年度策略 | 宏观风险 | 经营风险 02 重点个股风险排雷 热门个股风险排雷 03 风险提示 年度策略 01 风险排雷 Ø 核心逻辑 Ø 选股思路 5 • 放下显微镜，头部品牌业绩已企稳。11月初百胜中国发布2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rebound in the consumer sector, particularly driven by the rising prices of premium liquor such as Moutai, which has seen substantial price increases recently [3][5][6] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has experienced a net inflow of over 700 million yuan in the last three days, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the consumer sector [1][3] - The valuation of the Consumer ETF is currently at a TTM P/E ratio of 19.21, which is at a low point historically, suggesting high valuation attractiveness compared to the past decade [3][6] Group 2 - Moutai's price increase is attributed to the company's "quantity control" policy, which aims to reduce non-standard product quotas and enhance distributor confidence [5][6] - The demand for liquor has increased as the market enters a peak consumption season, leading to higher sales volumes for distributors [6][7] - Major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining price stability and channel profitability amid ongoing industry adjustments, with strategies aimed at developing new consumer segments and adapting to market changes [7][10] Group 3 - The articles discuss the broader recovery trends in the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of Return on Assets (ROA) as a leading indicator for operational recovery [9][10] - The current market environment shows a shift from expansion to competition based on existing market shares, with companies focusing on operational efficiency and consumer demand [6][9] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors with stabilizing ROA and potential for valuation recovery, particularly in traditional industries like liquor and dairy [10][11]

Group 1 - Tesla's new car registrations in Europe fell to 22,801 units in November, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. For the first 11 months of the year, registrations dropped by 28% [2] - Samsung and SK Hynix have raised the prices of HBM3E memory chips by nearly 20% for next year, a rare occurrence as suppliers typically lower prices before launching new generations of products [3] - The movie "Avatar 3" has surpassed 10 million viewers in China within six days of its release [4] Group 2 - Sanofi has announced an agreement to acquire vaccine company Dynavax for approximately $2.2 billion, with a cash offer of $15.50 per share [5] - According to Ipsos, the global net trust level for Chinese brands has increased by 12 percentage points to 32% compared to 2024, with significant trust growth in developed markets [6][7] - JD.com has opened 30 stores of its "Seven Fresh" brand in Beijing, indicating intensified competition in the community fresh food market [8] Group 3 - Yu Minhong has appointed Sun Jin as the new CEO of Dongfang Zhenxuan, marking a stable transition within the company [9] - The Sichuan provincial government is implementing measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, aiming to create new growth points [10] - Sanya's duty-free shops reported sales exceeding 5.35 billion yuan over five days, reflecting a 50.3% year-on-year increase, driven by promotional activities [11] Group 4 - Rakuten Trade Research indicates that the Malaysian stock market presents selective opportunities as year-end approaches, supported by strong domestic liquidity and improved market sentiment [12] - A new robotics industry association in Beijing is set to be established, aimed at promoting industry research, data analysis, and collaboration [13] - Bilibili has denied rumors of a "full paywall" for its content, leading to the arrest of individuals spreading false information [14]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery under the policy direction of expanding domestic demand, with public funds actively investing in this area [1][2][4]. Group 1: Fund Activity - Public funds have accelerated their investment in the consumer sector, with several new food-themed funds launched after a four-year hiatus [2][3]. - Notable fund companies such as GF Fund, Penghua Fund, and Huaxia Fund have recently issued ETFs tracking the CSI All Share Food Index, with the first ETF launched by GF Fund having an initial scale of 250 million yuan [2]. - Multiple fund companies have also introduced actively managed funds focused on consumer themes, including Huaan and Yifangda, indicating a growing interest in this sector [2][3]. Group 2: Performance and Trends - The consumer sector has seen a significant rebound, particularly in service consumption areas like tourism and aviation, with some funds reporting weekly gains exceeding 7% [4]. - The tourism ETF from Fuguo Fund attracted over 680 million yuan in net inflows last week, nearing its historical high [4]. - Fund managers have increased their focus on the consumer sector, with notable investments in companies like Huaxia Airlines and Sanxia Tourism, reflecting a positive outlook on service consumption [4]. Group 3: Market Insights - Analysts have observed a clear recovery in consumer spending, with improvements in CPI growth since August and notable price increases in service consumption and food sectors [5]. - There is an expectation for continued policy support for the consumer sector, which could enhance recovery momentum and improve corporate performance [6]. - Certain segments within the consumer sector are seen as undervalued, with potential opportunities in health consumption, pet economy, and cultural tourism, driven by policy incentives [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive impact of policy adjustments on the housing market and the home appliance sector, with specific measures aimed at easing home purchase conditions for non-local families and promoting sales through trade-in policies [1][2] - The home appliance export chain is expected to benefit from low inventory levels and recovering demand, with the anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut enhancing the outlook for U.S. real estate and durable goods demand [2] - The home appliance and home goods index (CSI 931241) reflects a balanced focus on hardware manufacturing and scenario-based consumption, with home appliances accounting for 52% and home goods for 48% of the index [2][3] Group 2 - The home appliance ETF (515730) is the first and only ETF tracking the CSI home appliance index, providing investors with exposure to leading companies in the home appliance and home goods sectors [3][4] - The recent policy support is expected to drive consumption in the home appliance sector, with significant growth potential in traditional consumer and maternity-related fields, particularly due to new subsidies [2] - The home appliance sector is projected to face challenges in domestic sales due to policy changes and high base effects, while external sales are expected to perform better due to easing tariffs and recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. [2]

Group 1 - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery under the policy direction of expanding domestic demand, with public funds increasing their investments in this area [1][2][4] - Several leading fund companies, including GF Fund, Penghua Fund, and Huaxia Fund, have launched new food-themed funds for the first time in four years, indicating renewed interest in the consumer sector [2][3] - The tourism and airline sectors have performed well recently, with a notable net inflow of over 680 million yuan into the tourism ETF managed by Fortune Fund, approaching historical highs [4][5] Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on the consumer sector, with some actively increasing their positions in stocks related to service consumption, such as airlines and tourism [4][6] - The recovery momentum in consumer spending has been evident since the fourth quarter, with improvements in CPI and prices in service consumption and food sectors [5][6] - Experts suggest that expanding domestic demand will be a key task for the upcoming year, with potential structural changes in consumption that could enhance consumer spending [6][7] Group 3 - The current valuations of many segments within the consumer sector are at historically low levels, which may benefit from policy support and lead to performance improvements for companies [6][7] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival, are expected to boost consumer spending, particularly in service-oriented sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery under the policy direction of expanding domestic demand, with public funds actively investing in this area [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Activity - Public funds have accelerated their investment in the consumer sector, with several major fund companies launching new products focused on food and consumption themes [2][3]. - The first food-themed ETF in four years was launched, with a notable initial scale of 250 million yuan, and significant interest from institutional investors [2]. - Multiple fund companies have introduced active funds targeting consumer themes, indicating a renewed focus on this sector [3]. Group 2: Performance and Trends - The consumer sector, particularly service consumption such as tourism and aviation, has shown strong performance, with some funds reporting over 7% weekly gains [4]. - Recent data indicates a significant inflow of over 680 million yuan into tourism ETFs, pushing their total size close to historical highs [4]. - Analysts note that the current valuations in various consumer sub-sectors are at historically low levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery driven by policy support [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts believe that the expansion of domestic demand will be a key focus in the coming year, with structural changes in consumption expected to drive growth [6][7]. - The likelihood of increased policy support for the consumer sector is anticipated, particularly for essential and discretionary consumption areas [6][7]. - Seasonal trends, especially around the New Year and Spring Festival, are expected to boost consumer activity, further strengthening the sector [7].