Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US economic soft data shows signs of weakening, with the labor market remaining stable overall. The Fed maintains the current policy rate but emphasizes future economic uncertainty, raising inflation expectations and lowering economic growth forecasts. There are stagflation risks, and macro - pressure persists [3]. - Fundamental situation: Nickel ore prices stay high, with most Indonesian ferronickel plants in a cost - upside - down state, and some plan to cut production. Traditional terminals remain weak, stainless - steel prices decline, suppressing steel mills' restocking. New - energy consumption performs well, and overall demand is slightly weak. Supply shows signs of narrowing, but the export window is open, keeping supply at a relatively high level [3]. - Future outlook: With the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and the potential rise in global crude oil prices, US inflation pressure may increase. Fundamentals may be revised, mainly driven by production - cut expectations due to low corporate profits. Consumption may remain stable, with traditional sectors weak and the new - energy sector potentially having an increase. Nickel prices may rebound slightly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price decreased from 119,690 yuan/ton to 118,280 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,410 yuan/ton; LME nickel price fell from 15,069 dollars/ton to 15,011 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58 dollars/ton [5]. - LME inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 681 tons to 21,669 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price decreased from 947 yuan/nickel point to 942 yuan/nickel point [5]. - Stainless - steel inventory increased from 91.7 tons to 92.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [5]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: Philippine nickel ore prices rose, while Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices declined. The acceptance of high - priced ore by downstream is weak, and July pre - sales transactions are scarce [6]. - **Ferronickel**: High - nickel pig iron prices dropped. Chinese ferronickel production in May increased, and imports decreased. Indonesian ferronickel production in May increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. Ferronickel may face the most pressure in the industry chain, with high upstream costs and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Nickel sulfate**: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices decreased. June production is expected to decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Ternary material production increased. Downstream inventory decreased, and upstream inventory increased. Nickel sulfate prices may continue to be weak [8]. - **Macro and fundamentals**: US economic soft data weakened, with consumption and output growth rates declining. The Fed maintains the current interest rate policy but raises inflation expectations and lowers economic growth forecasts. In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is stable in June, but smelter production schedules decline. In terms of consumption, new - energy vehicle sales in the first half of June increased year - on - year, but the growth rate in the second week weakened. Inventory shows a mixed trend, with LME inventory increasing and SHFE inventory decreasing [8][9][10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia lowers the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade in June by about 1.19% compared to the first - phase [14]. - Indonesia plans to punish a nickel park suspected of violating environmental regulations, which may affect some major nickel suppliers [14]. - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution plan to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North America, aiming to recycle valuable metals from battery waste [14]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].

一方面，点阵图给出的降息预期较3月边际偏鹰。虽然年内维持两次降息不变，但2026年降息预期从2次 变为1次。此外，支持年内不降息的官员数量从4名增加至7名（共19名），反映出美联储官员对待降息 更加谨慎。 另一方面，"滞涨"预期有所增加。美联储在6月上修了2025年和2026年的失业率和PCE的预测，同时下 修了经济预期。其中名义PCE和核心PCE均回升至3%以上，当前美国核心PCE同比2.52%，名义PCE同 比2.15%。 会后鲍威尔称，关税对通胀的影响需要时间传导，预计未来几个月通胀将明显上升；当前利率并不算很 高，鉴于通胀形势，仍需要货币政策保持一定的限制性。 6月19日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持 在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 美联储此次维持利率不变，符合市场预期，但表态略显鹰派。 展望后市，光大证券认为，6月议息会议后，市场降息预期变化不大。利率期货隐含的全年降息次数仍 维持2次，7月降息概率维持10%左右，9月降息概率维持70%左右。未来仍需关注贸易谈判结果、减税 法案的落地及伊以局势的 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance compared to March, with increased internal dissent among officials regarding future rate decisions[2] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation predictions were raised by 30 basis points to 3.0% for PCE and 3.1% for core PCE[2] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Chairman Powell revised the "transitory inflation" narrative, acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects and rising inflation expectations[2] - The unemployment rate forecast was increased by 10 basis points to 4.5%, indicating concerns about economic conditions[2] - Private final consumption remains strong at a growth rate of 2.5%, reflecting confidence in employment and economic growth[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. stock markets initially fell but later stabilized, while bond yields rose before slightly retreating[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July decreased from 14.5% to 10.3%, while the likelihood of a cut in September increased from 54.8% to 60.1%[2] - Risks include potential inflation increases due to tariff negotiations and unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy[2]

美联储在声明中表示，美国经济整体仍以"稳健步伐"增长，就业市场维持"低失业率"，但通胀仍"略显 高企"。尽管近期贸易政策与中东局势引发市场波动，委员会认为经济前景的不确定性"有所缓和，但仍 处于高位"。 鲍威尔在会后记者会上表示，当前政策"具备充足的空间和耐心"，美联储将继续观望经济数据演 化，"在作出任何调整前等待更明确的信号"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储在周三(6月)的议息会议上决定维持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%的目标区间 不变，符合市场此前的普遍预期。这也是自去年12月以来，连续第六次维持利率不变。尽管美联储指出 未来通胀上行与经济增长放缓并存的风险，委员会仍维持"年内降息两次"的预期。 此次会议发布的"点阵图"显示，美联储官员对利率走向的看法仍存在显著分歧。19位与会者中有7人表 示今年不支持降息，比3月时的4人有所增加。然而，委员会对政策声明的投票结果仍为一致通过，显示 美联储内部在应对当前宏观环境方面保持一定程度共识。 与此同时，美联储对中长期利率路径进行了调整：削减了对2026年和2027年各一次的降息预期，意味着 2025年以后降息节奏可能趋缓。最新的预测显示，到2027年，联邦基金 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储鲍威尔在最新新闻发布会上重申，美联储目前最关心的依旧是"让经济稳健 运行并保持物价稳定"。面对记者转述总统特朗普长期对"利率迟迟不降"的批评，鲍威尔拒绝正面回 应，只表示："这对我们而言并不复杂，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的所有成员都希望看到一个稳固的 经济和稳定的物价，这就是全部重点。" 与此同时，FOMC将今明两年失业率预测小幅上调，并首次在公开场合提及"挑战性场景"，当通胀回落 速度慢于就业市场降温时，联储或陷入目标冲突。"若出现这种情况，我们会考虑离双重目标各有多 远，以及各自回归正常的时间维度。" 随着通胀、失业率双升的可能性增加，市场对滞涨担忧升温。JanusHenderson投资组合经理DanSiluk指 出，通胀预测上修意味着激进降息空间受限，而若就业继续走软，美联储或被迫在两难中权衡。 鲍威尔则给出了"静观其变"的基调："在进一步了解经济路径之前，我们拥有充足的耐心。"FOMC维持 联邦基金利率在4.25%–4.5%区间不变，并保留"年内两次降息"的前瞻指引，但鲍威尔明言时点尚无定 论。 鲍威尔警告，4月初宣布的大规模关税仍在链式传导："关税渗透到消费者端需要时 ...

关税再次生变，预计短期震荡偏弱 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国5月芝加哥PMI录得40.5，远低于预期值45和前值44.6，5月一年期通胀率预期终值录得6.6%，低于预期值7.1%，但仍属于偏高位置，滞 涨概率加大；国内汽车价格战遭到官方制止，库存偏高经济偏弱的情况下，有待相关刺激政策出台；特朗普称将把进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，多 国进行对等关税回应，贸易关税不确定性再次增强。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，几内亚出港量暂维持正常 进口： 2025年4月中国氧化铝净出口24.93万吨，环比小幅减少，连续13个月净出口；进口转为小幅盈利 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2997，每吨盈利313元，成本小幅上移，利润小幅走阔；烧碱价格最新价3700元/吨，周度环比上涨50元/吨 ...

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below the market expectation of 52[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the market expectation of 49.5[2] - The new orders index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, indicating a significant weakening in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The price index for services rose from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022[2] - The manufacturing price index remained high at 69.4, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the US[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for 2023 are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4[2] - The PCE inflation is forecasted to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfriendly in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trading partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[2] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]