华尔街摁住油价也难遏通胀 美元超跌反弹冲击滞涨后的 金价 2025年08月15日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3354.41美元开盘，最高上试3374.29美元，最低下探3329.63美元，报收3334.78美元，下跌21.10美元，跌幅0.63%，振幅1.33%，日K 线呈震荡下跌中阴线。 周四美元指数以97.79点开盘，最高上试98.32点，最低下探97.62点，报收98.18点，上涨400点，涨幅0.41%，振幅0.72%，日K线呈震荡回升中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6948.72点开盘，最高上试7003.25点，最低下探6873.85点，报收6918.61点，下跌32.76点，跌幅0.47%，振幅1.61%， 日K线呈震荡回落小阴线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，但若参考通胀与利率预期两条基本面主线观察思考，即会理解市场运行的合理性。周四公布的7月美国PPI年率超预期大幅回 升，尤其核心PPI数据。 首先，我们知道9月美联储极大概率会再次推开降息窗口，悬疑是降息25点还是50点？周四PPI年率大幅上行，彰显通胀回 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the delay in the signing of a joint statement following the third round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks, attributed to political considerations by President Trump [1][4][18] - The trade "ceasefire" agreement reached in Geneva in May included a mutual reduction of tariffs by 115%, with 24% of tariffs postponed for 90 days, originally set to expire on August 12 [2][5] - Trump's decision to extend the 24% tariff for another 90 days came only late on August 11, indicating a lack of immediate action despite the completion of talks [2][4] Group 2 - Trump's public statements suggest he is pleased with the outcomes of the talks, yet he is cautious about appearing to compromise on China [4][7] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain, with rising tariffs leading to increased consumer prices and potential impacts on household spending, estimated to rise by approximately $2,400 annually due to new tariffs [9][11] - The inflation expectations in the U.S. have risen from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [14] Group 3 - Economic experts warn that the pressures on the U.S. economy are intensifying, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing from 4.1% to 4.2% in July, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment data [15] - The financial outlook remains pessimistic, with predictions of potential declines in the S&P 500 index by up to 14% by the end of the year due to the uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [16] - The current "ceasefire" in trade negotiations may only be a temporary measure, as Trump could reignite the trade war once the immediate challenges are resolved [19]

美国7月CPI将于北京时间周二20:30公布。这份最新的通胀数据将为押注美联储于9月降息的债券交易员 提供线索，以便了解美国总统特朗普的关税政策是如何影响通胀的。 华尔街经济学家预计，美国7月CPI将同比上涨2.8%，高于6月的2.7%。剔除食品和能源价格的7月核心 CPI将同比上涨3%，高于6月的2.9%;7月核心CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，高于6月的0.2%。 在美国就业市场走弱的迹象出现后，市场对美联储于9月降息的预期迅速升温。掉期交易显示，投资者 押注美联储在今年年底前将进行两次25个基点的降息。更有一些投资者押注美联储会在9月大幅降息50 个基点。而在降息预期的推动下，美债收益率已降至4月底以来的水平。 芝商所的"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储在9月降息25个基点的概率达到86.5%，到10月累计降息50个基 点的概率为53.6%，到12月累计降息50个基点的概率则为43.6%。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]

转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约8月11日电（记者 刘亚南）由于市场担忧关税导致美国通胀压力升高，纽约股市三大股指 11日高开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌200.52点，收于43975.09点，跌幅为0.45%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌16.00点，收于6373.45点，跌幅为0.25%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌64.62点，收 于21385.4点，跌幅为0.30%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八跌三涨。能源板块和房地产板块分别以0.79%和0.65%跌幅领跌， 必需消费品板块和非必需消费品板块分别以0.17%和0.14%涨幅领涨。 美国劳工部将于12日盘前发布7月份消费者价格指数，市场担忧7月份物价上涨。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，市场预计将于12日公布的美国7月份消费者价格指数同 比涨幅将从前一个月的2.7%升至2.8%，核心消费者价格指数涨幅预计从6月份的2.9%升至3.0%。同时， 也需要关注前值的修正情况是否会像非农数据那样爆冷。总体来看，目前的通胀水平尚且可控，但在高 关税的影响下不能排 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

| 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关注周二美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 收盘价 | 2. 78 | 787.80 | 781. 42 | 6. 38 | 785.02 | | | | | 成交重 | 251828.00 | 271828.00 | 64.747.00 | -20,000.00 | 187081.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 220321.00 | 217630.00 | 217696.00 | 2.691.00 | 2, 625. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 0. 00 | 156.00 | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35889.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

目前，黄金价格虽因技术性调整出现轻微回落，但整体多头结构未遭破坏。在宏观层面，美国服务业扩张 放缓、就业市场降温、企业成本上升等因素叠加关税不确定性，使得市场对"滞涨"格局与政策误判保持高 度警觉。从交易层面看，部分投资者正利用回调机会逢低布局，若特朗普的美联储提名人选偏"鸽派"，或 再度引爆金价上攻动能。 黄金：3358-60做多，防守50，目标看向3390-3400关口！空单上看3400的压制再做考虑！ 对于今日黄金走势的看法！ 黄金昨日意外收阴，算是稍稍给市场降温了一下，从日线的节奏来说，日线其实依旧保持着上升趋势，这 个很关键。力度是筑底的关键，而连续性才是趋势的延伸，特别是连阳能破前期开跌口，那么上升就稳 了。因此，今日是重点是看日线能否走出新的高点。但不管如何，这种形态中，没必要去猜回撤，就是顺 着趋势多即可。 而今日方面来说，就是看多头能否延续，这是奠定上升的关键。早盘若是不回撤给上车机会，欧盘时间点 也可以去卡多，博欧盘上升，这是最强走势，而按照位置来说。今日低点是3358-60一线。而我们的防守位 是3350不破依旧看涨！ 黄金市场多空关注焦点 本周"投资者将密切关注白宫即将对美联储人事任命 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]