Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the dot plot reflects the most likely path for interest rates, but it does not necessarily convey strong confidence [1] Group 1 - The dot plot is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to communicate its expectations for future interest rate changes [1] - Powell emphasized that the projections in the dot plot are subject to change based on economic conditions [1] - The statement suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy, highlighting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described the dot plot as "just a forecast in a foggy period" indicating uncertainty in economic predictions and monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - The dot plot reflects the Federal Reserve's projections for interest rates, which are subject to change based on evolving economic conditions [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of flexibility in monetary policy to adapt to unforeseen economic developments [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, making precise predictions challenging [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to remain relatively constrained ahead of Powell's speech, as the dot plot remains mostly unchanged [1] Group 1 - Analysts suggest that the economic forecast report is not considered dovish, but rather moderate compared to most expectations [1] - The current market sentiment aligns with the expectation that there will be limited movement in the Treasury market until after Powell's address [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging, with expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year due to persistent inflation and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [1] Economic Predictions - The last economic forecast from the FOMC was released on March 2, prior to Trump's tariff announcement, which has since disrupted the economic outlook [1] - The FOMC had previously anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2025, but analysts now suggest that only one cut in 2025 would not be surprising [1] Market Reactions - Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1] - A scenario where the dot plot indicates no rate cuts would be interpreted as "quite hawkish" [1]

安永：料点阵图仍显示到年底将有两次25个基点的降息 金十数据6月19日讯，安永经济学家Gregory Daco表示，料美联储将维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。 美联储最近的评论强化了一种观望态度，在经济前景不确定性增加的情况下，官员们没有表现出调整政 策的紧迫性。政策声明可能不会有太大改变。FOMC可能会重申，通胀仍然"有点高"，劳动力市场状 况"稳固"，失业率"稳定在较低水平"。可能会重申"失业率走高和通胀上升的风险已经增加"，特别是考 虑到经济前景的不确定性。预计利率预期中值的点阵图将保持不变，到年底将有两次25个基点的降息。 预计点阵图仍显示，2026年将进一步降息50个基点至3.4%，2027年将再次降息至3.1%。政策制定者对 长期中性利率的中值估计可能会保持在3%不变。 ...

美联储即将公布最新利率决议。 当地时间6月18日，美股三大指数小幅高开，截至发稿，道指涨0.13%，标普500指数涨0.09%， 纳指涨0.05%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 42270.29 | +0.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 5988.06 | +0.09% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 19531.49 | +0.05% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7227.26 | -0.35% | | .HXC | | | 大型科技股多数下跌，截至发稿，微软、英伟达、苹果、谷歌A、特斯拉小幅下跌；亚马逊、Meta、博通小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，截至发稿，携程跌超4%，贝壳跌超3%，哔哩哔哩、理想汽车、京东、百度、阿里巴巴跌超1%；腾讯音乐涨超1%，蔚来等小幅上涨。此 外，脑再生科技一度跌超30%，该股此前2个交易日累涨近400%。 上周，美国初请失业金人数有所下降，但仍稳定在8个月来的最高水平附近。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示， 在截至6月14日的当周，首次申请失业救济的人数 减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time it has held rates steady. However, uncertainties regarding the policy path for the second half of the year are significant, making the upcoming "dot plot" and economic outlook from the Fed crucial for market reactions [1][4][5]. Interest Rate Projections - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, with a potential first cut in September or October [1][2]. - The "dot plot" is anticipated to be more significant than the decision itself, with analysts focusing on whether it will signal only one rate cut instead of two for 2025 [1][8]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - Analysts predict that the Fed will lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, down from 1.7% previously, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3% from 2.8% [7]. - The unemployment rate forecast is also expected to rise to 4.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.4% [7]. Inflation and Economic Data - Recent geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, potentially impacting inflation expectations, but analysts believe this will have limited effect on the Fed's June meeting [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, which has decreased from a peak of 5.6% in 2022 to 2.5%, is projected to rebound to 3.4% by year-end [5]. Market Reactions and Predictions - If the "dot plot" indicates only one rate cut, it may lead to significant market volatility, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold and other assets [10][11]. - The market has largely ignored the resilience of U.S. economic data, focusing instead on potential downside risks, which may affect the dollar's performance in the context of global "de-dollarization" [11].

美联储决议来袭 鲍威尔如何落子？ 金十数据6月18日讯，美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨02:00公布利率决议，02:30鲍威尔将召开新闻发布 会。本次会议正值"特朗普关税"效应初显，市场深陷中东地缘冲突影响之际，全球正站在货币政策与地 缘风险的双重十字路口。市场聚焦美联储政策声明、经济展望、点阵图将作何调整，届时警惕行情剧烈 波动，更多前瞻请点击... FOMC前瞻：美联储料将按兵不动，点阵图或释放鹰派信号？ 全球金融市场将迎来美联储的重磅时刻，"点阵图"将揭示官员们的真实预期，黄金价格将何去何从？ ...

北京时间周四凌晨2:00，美联储将公布利率决定和最新经济预测摘要（SEP），随后美联储主席鲍威尔 将于2:30举行新闻发布会。 市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将把利率维持在4.25%-4.5%不变。路透社最新调查显 示，105位受访经济学家中有103位预计将维持利率不变，另有2位预计将降息25个基点。 在同一份调查中，105位经济学家中有59位预测美联储将在下个季度（可能在9月）恢复降息，而60%的 经济学家预计今年将有两次降息，这与3月的点阵图中值一致，也与货币市场定价相对吻合，后者预计 年底前将放松46个基点。 Newsquawk在其展望中指出，鉴于特朗普关税政策对经济影响的持续不确定性，美联储可能继续采 取"观望"态度，并密切关注将与利率决定一同发布的最新经济预测摘要；其中，2025年的点阵图将成为 关注焦点，目前该图预示今年将有50个基点的降息。 正如今年绝大多数委员会成员反复强调的，明确的信息是：目前没有明显的立即调整政策的必要，采取 耐心的方法是最佳选择。未来公布的数据最终将弥合在通胀和增长/就业方面存在的分歧观点。因此， 正如杰富瑞集团所指出的那样，"观望"比"先发制人"更好。 最近 ...

北京时间周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月利率决议及最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中反映官员利率预 期的"点阵图"成为关键焦点。当前，对进口关税走向及地缘冲突下油价波动的不确定性加剧，正显著提 升美联储无法如3月预期般在2025年降息两次的风险。 3月点阵图中值显示，美联储官员预计2025年底前降息两次。然而，目前联邦基金利率期货市场仅赋予 降息幅度小于两次约37.7%的概率。这一预期差为今夜决议埋下风险：若点阵图中值下调至仅一次降 息，可能引发市场失望情绪。 美国总统特朗普4月对多数进口商品加征的10%基础关税，其90天暂停期将于7月结束，缺乏永久解决方 案加剧了通胀前景的不确定性。同时，近期中东紧张局势导致油价波动加剧，引发对潜在供应中断推升 通胀的担忧。这些因素叠加，正侵蚀美联储的政策空间。 金融服务公司Ebury指出，年内两次降息可能仍是多数委员的基准预期，但关税的巨大不确定性可能阻 碍他们大幅调整观点。风险在于，少数委员下调预期可能足以使点阵图中值指向仅降息一次（25基 点）。若点阵图偏鹰派，加之鲍威尔强调不急于降息，可能支撑美元走强。 市场普遍预期美联储首次降息将在9月。过去三个月，美联储官员对202 ...