【黄金期货最新行情】 | 2月11日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1130.40 | 0.56% | 217933 | 160510 | 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：黄金调整后仍具备上行基础 重点关注沃什政策主张、及非农数据 当前市场情绪仍偏弱，美股维持高位震荡，短期看金银价格仍在进行底部再平衡，金银或延续高波动状 态，走势上不排除出现再次探底与反复拉锯。但中长期看，全球高债务、地缘风险及白银结构性短缺等 核心支撑未变，金银调整后仍具备上行基础。近期需重点关注沃什政策主张、及非农数据。 数据显示，2月11日上海黄金现货价格报价1124.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1130.40元/克）贴水6.4 元/克。 美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑 制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。 美联储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时 间内"保持不变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季库存积累 价格区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场 恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济 活动。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万 ...

Group 1: Market Insights from Jim Rogers - Jim Rogers has liquidated all his U.S. stock holdings and is focusing on physical commodities like gold, silver, and copper as a "perfect insurance policy" for potential crises [1][2] - He emphasizes the importance of holding gold and silver, stating they will serve as a crucial refuge in times of crisis and can also provide significant returns if the market conditions are favorable [1] - Rogers highlights the increasing demand for copper across various industries, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, while noting the limited new copper mines being developed globally [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Ahead of Chinese New Year - As the Chinese New Year approaches, the domestic futures market will enter a holiday period while overseas markets continue trading, with macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions likely influencing market conditions [3] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant macroeconomic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties require careful position management and risk hedging [3] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments, with pressures from falling precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets leading to a general pullback [4] - There is a potential risk of supply disruptions in the aluminum market due to possible military actions in the Middle East, which could significantly impact global aluminum supply [4] - The long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, driven by continued demand from AI infrastructure investments and global manufacturing support [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Price Volatility - Precious metals are currently experiencing price volatility, with a notable decline in prices but a decrease in volatility levels, indicating a potential stabilization phase [7] - Market sentiment remains bullish on gold's mid-term prospects, while silver and platinum are more volatile due to their industrial applications [7] - The recent decline in precious metal prices is viewed as a stress test for future liquidity tightening risks, with gold still holding significant long-term investment value [7] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could significantly affect oil prices [8] - Current oil prices reflect a certain level of geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate, prices may enter a recovery phase [8] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations are also critical, as any progress or setbacks could impact oil price volatility [8]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in silver prices has created significant uncertainty for investors, with recent fluctuations leading to both substantial gains and losses in the market [2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - A notable case involved an investor who purchased silver for 1.3 million and later sold it for 2.7 million, realizing a 100% profit [1]. - On February 10, gold opened high but fell by 0.7% to 1118.20 RMB per gram, while silver experienced a more severe drop of 2.4%, closing at 19.281 RMB per gram, nearly 2 RMB lower than the previous week [1][5]. - The domestic silver price was reported at 19.35 RMB, while the international price was 18.16 USD, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are experiencing heightened anxiety due to the unpredictable nature of silver prices, likening the situation to a roller coaster ride [2]. - The reopening of the Guotou Silver LOF fund saw a sharp decline of 4.26% in its stock price, leading to frustration among investors who felt misled by the temporary suspension [4][6]. - Comments from investors reflect a mix of envy for those who profited and criticism towards those perceived as reckless gamblers in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The fluctuations in precious metal prices are largely influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies, with a 50% probability of a rate cut expected in June [5]. - Market speculation regarding upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data could significantly alter investor expectations and market dynamics [5][9]. - The ongoing volatility serves as a reminder that high returns in precious metal investments come with substantial risks, emphasizing the need for rational investment strategies [11].

【华通白银网2月9日讯】银价在周一上涨超过2%，接近每盎司80美元，此前在前一交易日上涨了10%，交易者在经历了几乎抹去一半价值的历史性抛售 后，继续购买这种贵金属。投资者还对日本首相高市早苗执政联盟在周末选举中的压倒性胜利作出反应，这为她的扩张性财政政策铺平了道路。与此同时， 美国和伊朗在周五在阿曼举行会谈，试图缓解紧张局势，尽管德黑兰坚持拒绝停止核燃料浓缩。投资者还在等待本周美国的关键就业和通胀报告，以指导美 联储政策。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将上周贵金属的极端波动归因于中国交易者，称最近的高点为投机性抛售。 白银网 ...

周二，黄金在连续两日上涨后回落，白银也随之下跌，因投资者在这个波动剧烈且仍在经历历史性暴跌后试图寻找明确方向的市场中获利了结。 现货黄金一度下跌1.4%，随后收窄跌幅，交易价格略高于每盎司5000美元。交易员正关注本周公布的美国数据，以寻找美联储政策方向的线索。尽管金价 自1月29日创下的历史高点已下跌约10%，但今年以来仍稳步上涨。 中国央行在1月份连续第15个月增持黄金，凸显了官方需求的韧性。 此外，1月份，印度投资者涌入黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金甚至超过了股票共同基金。根据印度共同基金协会周二公布的数据，黄金ETF的净流入 量激增至创纪录的2404亿卢比（约合26.5亿美元），略高于股票基金2403亿卢比的流入量。这一里程碑标志着近年来当地投资者对黄金最强烈的背书之一。 在印度，这些全球力量受到该金属深厚文化联系的强化，为资金流入提供了额外支持。 华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong表示："这次清洗是金价恢复逐步上涨趋势所急需的重置。"他说："支撑黄金的结构性驱动因素完好无损。下行势头已经减 弱，金价已开始在较低但仍处于历史高位的水平上企稳。" 展望未来，在美国总统特朗普提名沃什担任美 ...

周二，该货币对在连续两个交易日上涨后回落，前一交易日印度卢比兑美元表现疲软。银行家表示，当前市场对冲活动及本地资金流动正常，近期汇率变化 是市场多重因素博弈的结果，非短期资金异动所致。 股权流入改善为印度卢比提供了支撑。周一，外国投资者净买入约2.5亿美元印度股票，使得当月外资净买入总额达约15亿美元。1月份外国投资者曾出现近 40亿美元资金外流，短短一个多月，外资流向从大幅外流转为稳步流入，这一初步转变缓解了卢比下行压力。 市场对美联储政策走向已有共识，普遍认为3月份将维持利率不变，首次降息大概率在6月份，9月份可能再次降息。这一预期与美国通胀预期缓解相关：1月 份美国中位未来通胀预期降至3.1%，为六个月最低，较12月份的3.4%明显回落。但食品价格预期仍维持在5.7%高位，三年期和五年期通胀预期稳定在3%， 通胀回落仍有不确定性。 美印近期达成的临时贸易框架，是限制印度卢比下行的关键。上周五，新德里与华盛顿公布这一框架，旨在降低双边关税、重塑能源合作、深化经济合作。 这是两国经长时间谈判取得突破后的成果，框架落地推动卢比创下三年多来最强劲周涨幅。 美联储官员近期表态凸显"数据依赖"的政策立场。旧金山联储 ...

【大河财立方消息】近期黄金价格出现大幅度波动。中信证券明明、余经纬、陈炳丞2月9日发表研报认 为，从基本面来看，是市场对美联储独立性的担忧和伊朗局势的预期出现了变化，驱动黄金价格先快速 上行后大幅震荡下跌。市场的投机性资金也放大了这一趋势变化。 展望美联储政策，中信证券认为市场对新提名的美联储主席凯文·沃什的预期存在过度悲观的可能性。 此外，中信证券还提到，伊朗局势的不确定性仍然较高，或需等待局势尘埃落定后黄金市场波动才会收 敛。 展望2026年全年，中信证券依旧维持对黄金价格的乐观展望，不过也需要关注近期经贸关系扰动。 除了黄金及贵金属外，中信证券认为其他有色金属2026年的牛市行情同样值得期待。 研报中提到，随着黄金市场的牛市继续，贵金属市场乐观情绪可能会扩散到有色金属当中，助推有色板 块的牛市延续。如果中国、美国的基建与制造业领先指标在2026年出现改善，有色金属的市场表现可能 会更加良好。 责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 研报中提到，凯文·沃什在此前支持美联储缩表的表态打消了市场对美联储独立性的担忧，但也带来了 对美联储数量型货币政策过度紧缩的担忧。 但中信证券认为，目前美国的财政债务状 ...

基本面： 周一（2月9日）黄金价格早盘高开大涨，随后大跌，市场短线追空或者等地回落支撑位多单布局，金价早盘上演绝地反击，单日狂飙近4%，现货价格一度 逼近每盎司4955美元，周线顽强收涨。现货黄金延续涨势，一度上涨1.7%至5046.15美元/盎司。与此同时，白银的波动更为剧烈，上周五盘中暴跌后10%后 大幅反弹，收盘上涨逾9%，收报77.50美元/盎司，波动幅度令人咋舌，周一续涨3%至79.90美元/盎司。这绝非简单的技术性反弹，其背后是美元指数的微妙 转向、中东地缘政治"火药桶"引信的忽明忽暗、以及全球央行政策路径的混沌交织。 本次金价暴力拉升，最直接的催化剂来自于外汇市场与地缘政治两个层面的"共振"。美元的"短暂喘息"：美元指数在上周五下跌0.2%，结束了连续多日的强 势。尽管整周仍录得上涨，但此时的回落，对于以美元计价的黄金而言，如同卸下了一副沉重的枷锁，使其对持有欧元、日元等其他货币的投资者而言变 得"更便宜"，从而刺激了实物买盘和投资需求。这种"跷跷板"效应在情绪敏感时期总是被放大。中东迷雾中的"避险脉冲"：伊朗方面关于在阿曼与美国举行 的核谈判取得"良好开端"并将持续推进的表态，本意是缓和局势， ...