有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全 市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月17日午后，有色板块持续走强，有色龙头ETF（159876）涨逾3%。昨日，有色龙头ETF（159876） 单日吸金1013万元，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处 ...

今日A股震荡下行。上证指数收于3867.92点，下跌0.55%，深证成指收于13112.09点，下跌1.10%。两市 共计成交不足1.8万亿元，较前一交易日有所下降。市场整体跌多涨少，非银金融盘中拉升，电子、通 信方向领跌。 当前A股所处的经济和政策环境整体维持积极，预计财政支出将保持积极，推动经济总需求回暖。中期 来看，在各项稳增长措施及宽松货币、财政政策落地后，总需求增速有望重回扩张区间，带动A股重新 进入上行周期。 //// 今日统计局发布11月部分经济数据。数据显示，固定资产投资累计同比增速下滑至-2.6%创2021以来新 低，其中地产投资单月同比下降超30%。经济结构继续呈现供给强、需求弱、通胀低的特征，对债市形 成边际利好。 虽然近期债市情绪依然偏弱，但支撑债市企稳的支撑力量亦开始显现。从供给端来看，未来一段时间的 供给压力有所缓和，同时随着利差变化，供给端期限存在调整可能，长端利率压力有望减轻。从需求端 看，银行指标压力阶段性缓和，年初银行或获得新的资本补充，减持趋势将转为增持。此外，交易型机 构仓位的下降意味着抛售力量正在逐渐下降，市场企稳之后交易型机构补仓反而有望推动市场企稳。 目前10年期 ...

今日A股震荡下行。上证指数收于3867.92点，下跌0.55%，深证成指收于13112.09点，下跌1.10%。两市 共计成交不足1.8万亿元，较前一交易日有所下降。市场整体跌多涨少，电子通信方向领跌。当前A股所 处的经济和政策环境整体维持积极，预计财政支出将保持积极，推动经济总需求回暖。中期来看，在各 项稳增长措施及宽松货币、财政政策落地后，总需求增速有望重回扩张区间，带动A股重新进入上行周 期。 统计局日前发布的经济数据显示，11月CPI、PPI保持稳定，固定资产投资增速加速下滑，其中房地产开 发投资增速累计同比录得-15.9%继续寻底。在供给偏强、需求偏弱、投资趋缓、通胀低位的环境下，债 券仍然具有配置价值。就点位而言，当前10年期国债收益率突破1.85%的央行合意区间上沿，且需求端 或因长债利率上升增加配置需求。建议适当关注久期策略，持续关注十年国债ETF(511260)。 黄金板块今日表现亮眼，黄金基金ETF(518800)上涨1.37%，黄金股票ETF(517400)上涨1.28%。短期， 12月FOMC降息25bp，并在12月启动准备金管理购买；俄乌和谈仍在拉扯，特朗普持续对委内瑞拉施 压。中长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a buildup of momentum as it approaches year-end, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which remains the strongest support for the bull market in precious metals [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last week, gold and silver reached new highs, with gold increasing over 2% and silver rising more than 6% on a weekly basis [2][10]. - After reaching these highs, both metals experienced a pullback due to a rebound in the US dollar, as investors took profits at elevated levels [2][10]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook remains strong, with gold maintaining its position near historical highs, indicating a healthy technical correction [5][12]. - Silver's momentum is even stronger than gold, having set new highs for five consecutive days, suggesting that any pullback is a natural pause after rapid gains [5][12]. Group 3: Key Support Factors - Confirmation of the monetary policy path is crucial; any indications of further rate cuts or sustained low rates in 2025 will directly benefit gold [6][12]. - Signs of weakening economic data, particularly in employment and consumption, could enhance expectations for quicker and deeper rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, significantly boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [6][12]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Industrial Demand - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties will continue to provide a solid foundation for safe-haven buying of gold [7][13]. - Silver benefits from its dual attributes, with strong industrial demand (in green energy, photovoltaics, and electronics) providing additional upward potential [7][13]. Group 5: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The upcoming US November non-farm payroll report and CPI inflation data will be critical catalysts for determining the market direction before year-end [7][13]. - A scenario of slowing employment combined with cooling inflation would be most favorable for gold and silver, potentially leading to a significant breakout above previous highs [7][13][15]. - Conversely, if employment remains strong and inflation persists, it may lead to skepticism about the Federal Reserve's easing intentions, resulting in a rebound of the dollar and upward pressure on interest rates, which could create selling pressure on precious metals [15].

12月15日，港股三大指数悉数回调，恒生科技指数跌逾2%，自带"科技+红利"哑铃策略的——香港大盘 30ETF（520560）随市盘整，场内价格现跌1.48%，值得关注的是，该ETF场内宽幅溢价，显示买盘资 金更为强势，或有资金逢跌进场布局！ 事实上，香港大盘30ETF（520560）此前5日连续获资金净流入，合计金额4349万元，拉长时间来看， 近20日累计吸金1.19亿元，反映资金看好港股后市表现，积极运用哑铃策略进行布局！ 细分方向来看，港股保险板块逆市活跃，中国平安一度涨近4%创阶段新高，中国人寿涨逾1%；港股消 费方面，百胜中国、安踏体育涨逾超1%，涨幅居前。另一方面，港股创新药龙头百济神州跌近7%，港 股科技龙头中芯国际、快手跌超2%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 消息面上，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，进一步释放险 资入市空间。对保险公司投资沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分股以及科创板股票的风 险因子进行下调。 中信建投证券表示，与2023年9月下调股票投资风险因子相比，此次调整新增了对股票持仓时间的门槛 限制，有助于引导险资强化长期投资。根据 ...

华尔街多家大行看空美元！ 日前，多家华尔街大行表示，随着美联储继续推进降息周期，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。摩根士丹利 G10外汇策略主管戴维·亚当斯表示，该行预计美元明年上半年将下跌5%。 华尔街大行看空美元 据彭博社消息，德意志银行、摩根士丹利、高盛集团等华尔街大行预测，美元将在明年恢复下跌态势。 今年上半年，受特朗普政府发起的贸易战冲击，美元创下20世纪70年代初以来最深跌幅，但在过去六个 月中逐渐企稳。 不过，策略师们预计美元将在2026年再次走弱，因美联储继续放宽货币政策，而其他主要央行则保持利 率稳定或转向加息。这种政策分化将促使投资者抛售美国债券，将资金转向收益率更高的国家。 因此，多家主要投资银行的预测机构普遍认为，美元兑日元、欧元和英镑等主要货币将走低。彭博社汇 总的预测中值显示，一项备受关注的美元指数到2026年底将下跌约3%。 不过，也有少数机构持相反观点。花旗集团和渣打银行的分析师认为，由人工智能繁荣驱动的美国经济 依然保持强劲，有望持续吸引国际资本流入，从而支撑美元汇率。"我们认为2026年美元周期复苏潜力 强劲。"花旗团队在年度展望中写道。 "市场有充分的空间为更深入的降息周期定价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rebound, indicating increased bullish momentum and a strengthened outlook for future price increases, potentially reaching $4,380 or higher [1][11]. Price Movement - On December 11, gold opened at $4,224.45 per ounce, peaked at $4,285.66, and closed at $4,279.56, marking a daily increase of $55.11 or 1.3% with a trading range of $81.35 [1][12]. Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is supported by buying pressure and a significant increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., which is the largest weekly rise since the pandemic [3][14]. The declining U.S. dollar index also contributes to the upward movement in gold prices [3][14]. Short-term Outlook - On December 12, gold opened weakly due to profit-taking but still shows bullish demand. The expectation for a continued decline in the dollar index supports gold prices, with no significant bearish outlook anticipated [3][14]. Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases next week include November non-farm payrolls, U.S. November CPI, and core PCE price index, which could influence gold prices positively or maintain high volatility [6][17]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, eliminating bearish patterns and enhancing the outlook for new highs. December's performance shows a temporary weakness followed by renewed strength, with a need to break the $4,400 resistance for further upward movement [8][21]. - Weekly charts show a strong bullish momentum, with prices above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting potential for new highs [8][18]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4,260 or $4,245 and resistance at $4,310 or $4,340 for gold, while silver support is at $62.50 or $61.65 and resistance at $64.30 or $64.90 [10][20].

（原标题：瑞银：香港IPO集资额明年有望超3000亿港元 外资继续回流） 毕马威近期发布的报告称，预计2025年港股IPO集资额达2721亿港元，同比上升210%，自2019年后再度 登上全球第一。 李镇国表示，IPO数量的增加为市场提供了更丰富的投资选择，这种"百花齐放"的局面有助于提升市场 活跃度，吸引更多资金与关注，进而对二级市场形成支撑。 在具体的IPO市场展望上，李镇国透露，不排除2026年港股出现集资规模超过400亿港元的超大型IPO， 并预计仅2026年第一季度就将有数宗集资额过百亿港元的上市项目，主要集中在特专科技及消费类行业 等。 值得注意的是，他观察到今年已有小部分美资基金开始认购香港IPO，并预计2026年这一趋势将会增 强。 针对近期香港证监会与港交所向IPO保荐人发出的联席致函，李镇国解读称，此举更多是监管机构的一 种提醒，而非市场所言的"警告"。 （瑞银发布会现场 摄/张伟泽） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 香港报道 12月11日，瑞银全球投资银行部副主席及亚洲企业客户部联席主管李镇国在记者会上表示，预计香港在 2026年将迎来150至200宗新股上市，集资总额超过300 ...

Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led some investors to sell for profit, resulting in a decline of approximately 1.26% in gold prices. However, strong demand persists, particularly from central banks, indicating that the gold bull market is not over yet [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have recently experienced a continuous rise, prompting profit-taking among investors [1]. - Central banks purchased 53 tons of gold in October, reflecting robust demand [1]. - The Hong Kong First Gold platform suggests that despite potential volatility due to rapid price increases, the gold bull market remains intact, recommending strategic buying on dips [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - In the current high-level market, the strategy is to avoid chasing prices and focus on key support levels for potential buying opportunities [2]. - Key resistance levels are identified at the $4264-$4250 range, while support levels are at $4200-$4180 and $4160 [2]. - Short-term strategies include considering light long positions if prices pull back to the $4200-$4180 range and show bullish candlestick patterns [3]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Approach - A "buy on dips" strategy is recommended for long-term positions, treating each pullback as an opportunity for accumulation [4]. - Initial accumulation should begin at the $4180-$4200 support area, with further purchases at lower levels if prices decline [4]. Group 4: Economic Data Focus - Upcoming economic data includes the U.S. November ADP employment report and the delayed September PCE price index, which are crucial for market sentiment regarding interest rate adjustments and may influence gold price volatility [5].