交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月 14日，美威胁在50天内对俄原油实施二级制裁。18日工信部宣布将推动包括石化行业在内的重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能的稳增长方案。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜略有好转，下游 需求整体弱势。当前LL交割品现货价7180（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-36，升贴水比例-0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.7万吨（+3.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面震荡，宏观稳增长方案推动，农膜 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 21 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品 | 炊油 | に配す | 尿素 | | | 二债 | 氧化铝 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 十债 | 原木 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 五债 | 沥青 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉花 | 工业硅 | | | | 锰硅 | 棉纱 | 多晶硅 | | | | 硅铁 | 纸浆 | 玉米 | | | | 红枣 | 对二甲苯 | 热轧卷板 | | | | 纯碱 | 三十债 | 塑料 | | | | 原油 | 短纤 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 苹果 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to achieve a total profit of 15-16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the same period last year. Several cement companies have announced significant profit increases, with Tianshan Co. and Jidong Cement reducing losses by 2.5 billion and 660 million yuan respectively. Other companies like Tapai, China Resources, and Wan Nian Qing have seen profit growth exceeding 80%, while Huaxin Cement's profit increased by 50-55% [2][18] - The substantial improvement in performance is attributed to several factors: 1) Major companies have enhanced their price stability awareness since Q4 last year, leading to a price increase of approximately 20 yuan/ton in the average cement price year-on-year; 2) Cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly; 3) The average coal price fell by about 200 yuan/ton year-on-year [2][18] - Short-term cement prices are still slightly declining due to seasonal factors, but the downward space is limited. Prices are expected to rise as demand enters the peak season in August. Current cement valuations are relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 0.7, which is at the 17th percentile over the past three years. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for the building materials industry, which is expected to catalyze further valuation recovery [3][18] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) fell by 0.02%. Notable stock performances included Lifan Shuke (+26.9%), Shiming Technology (+15%), and Hainan Ruize (+13.9%). The recommended stocks from the previous week showed mixed results, with China National Materials (+8.8%) and Huaxin Cement (+0.9%) performing well, while Sanhe Pile (-4.5%) and International Composite (-1.4%) declined [1][12] Recent Real Estate Fundamentals - In the week of July 4-10, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.3391 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.55% [14] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices continued to decline, with a drop of 1%. The price drop was mainly concentrated in East and Southwest China, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton. However, demand is expected to improve slightly with better weather conditions [16] - Glass: The domestic photovoltaic glass market remained stable, with prices holding steady. The average price of float glass increased slightly to 1211.96 yuan/ton, with production costs varying based on fuel types [17] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn showed a downward trend, with prices declining slightly. The overall demand remains weak, although there is some support from wind power orders [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities and price trends for various commodities: - **Iron Ore**: Macro - expectations support, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 1 [4][5]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [8][9][11]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, with wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 0 [13][15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has one round of price increase implemented, with a bias towards strong and volatile trends; coking coal shows a bias towards strong and volatile trends. Trend intensities are 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [16][18]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, with stable and volatile trends. Trend intensity is 0 [20][23]. - **Logs**: Wide - range fluctuations. Trend intensity is 1 [24][27]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fundamentals, price trends, and macro - industry news of various black - series commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs. It provides price trends and trend intensities for each commodity, helping investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (- 0.06%). The trading volume was 692,666 lots, a decrease of 10,578 lots. Imported ore prices showed some fluctuations, with the price of 65% Carajás fines rising by 3.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro - industry News**: The China Iron and Steel Association organized a meeting to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" to prevent over - capacity risks [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.74%); the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.91%). Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [9]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for key industries. Steel production and inventory data showed some changes, and export volume decreased in June [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes and procurement price information for silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions, and manganese ore inventory changed [14][15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 926 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.82%); the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,518 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.07%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different trends [16]. - **Macro - industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and changes in the CCI metallurgical coal index [16][17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading volume. Southern port and domestic origin prices were provided, and the long - short positions of the top 20 members remained unchanged [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts showed different trends, and the prices of various log products in the spot market remained stable [25]. - **Macro - industry News**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held [27].

重要的消息有哪些 1． 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式7月19日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举行。 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程 位于西藏自治区林芝市。工程主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2 万亿元。 2． 国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织召开打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动推进会，会议要求，各有 关部门要持续深入开展专项行动，进一步加大执法力度；研究建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心； 依法从严从快查办重大违法犯罪案件，及时公布一批典型执法司法案例；坚决防止绕道出口，将规避国家 出口管制措施的境外最终用户列入出口管制管控名单等。 3． 金融监管总局近日召开系统党的建设工作会议。会议强调，要扎实推进中小金融机构改革化险，有效 防范化解重点领域风险，严密防范和打击非法金融活动，牢牢守住风险底线。坚持聚焦实质风险、解决实 际问题，规范金融机构经营行为，加强金融消费者权益保护，不断增强监管针对性和有效性等。 4． 甘肃通报褐石培心幼儿园餐食铅含量严重超标，6人被批捕，17人被立案审查调查。 5． 近日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业理性参与竞争，共同 构建消 ...

行 华福证券 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：国内外固态电池中试线加速建设，设备交付有望 迎来密集期。1）eVTOL 获 10 亿美金订单，固态电池配套低空飞行器；2） 国内外固态电池中试线加速建设，设备交付有望迎来密集期。 业 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：工信部近期将实施新一轮钢铁、有色、石化、电 力装备等行业稳增长工作方案。7 月 18 日，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少 锋在国新办上表示，即将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、电力装备等 十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰 落后产能，近期将陆续发布具体工作方案。光伏产业应抓住政策机遇，在 智能制造和新型电池技术等领域加大投入，把握稳增长带来的市场空间， 同时通过技术创新提升竞争力，实现高质量发展。 风电板块核心观点：英国放宽 AR7 海上风电准入门槛，浙江深远海风 电配套基地建设进展积极。1）英国放宽 AR7 海上风电准入门槛，或将带 动更多早期项目提前落地；2）浙江深远海风电母港基地开发进展顺利。 储能板块核心观点：甘肃省出台首个省级容量电价政策，青海绿电直 连方案公布。1）甘肃省出台首个省级容量电价政策，独立储能收益模式进 ...

有色金属 2025 年 7 月 20 日 有色金属周报 有色等行业稳增长方案即将出台，产业格局有望加速优化 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告尾页的声明内容。 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 贵金属-黄金：美联储降息预期扰动消退，看好黄金中长期走势。截 至 7.18，COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 0.44%至 3355.5 美元/盎司。 SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比减少 0.4%为 943.6 吨。前期美联储降息预期边 际回落对金价带来的压力逐步消退，短期来看，美元指数走低背景 下，金价预计仍将震荡偏强。世界黄金协会报告显示，受 6 月份强劲 表现 ...

工业和信息化部新闻发言人、运行监测协调局局长陶青在7月18日国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期将印 发机械、 汽车、 电力装备等行业稳增长工作方案，提升优质供给能力，优化行业发展环境。同时，工 业和信息化部将印发汽车行业数字化转型实施方案，落实机械和电力装备两个行业数字化转型实施方 案。 ...