Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese government bond market, specifically the 10-year treasury bonds and their yield performance [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Resistance Levels for Bond Yields** - The 10-year treasury bond yield is facing strong resistance around 1.6%, with previous dips reaching approximately 1.57% [1][2]. - Current yields are fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.7%, indicating limited adjustment space [1][2]. - Investors are advised to consider buying when yields approach 1.65% but to be cautious of potential pullbacks near 1.6% [1][2]. 2. **Expectations for Resuming Bond Trading** - Market expectations for the resumption of government bond trading need to be postponed [3][4]. - The central bank requires two conditions to be met: an increase in bond supply and favorable yield conditions [4]. - There is no significant increase in bond supply expected in July, with only minor peaks anticipated in August and November [4]. 3. **Central Bank's Stance on Yield Movements** - The central bank is more inclined to accept rising yields rather than significant declines, which pose systemic risks [5]. - To avoid breaching critical levels like 1.6%, the central bank may wait for the market to adjust to higher levels before considering resumption of trading [5]. 4. **Liquidity Management and Central Bank Operations** - The notion of "liquidity withdrawal" when treasury bonds mature is inaccurate; central bank purchases actually inject liquidity into the system [6][7]. - The process of purchasing bonds involves a two-step operation that ultimately increases liquidity, although maturity payments do not directly affect base currency and liquidity [7]. 5. **Interest Rate Cut Potential** - The central bank's capacity for interest rate cuts this year is limited, with a potential cut of about 10 basis points expected around late Q3 or early Q4 [8]. - The timing of any cuts will depend on external conditions, with the focus on stabilizing growth in response to economic pressures [8]. 6. **Current Market Liquidity Conditions** - The market is experiencing marginal tightening of liquidity, with the central bank maintaining a relatively loose stance but with limits [9][10]. - The seven-day repo rate is around 1.5%, and the overnight repo rate is approximately 1.4%, indicating controlled liquidity to prevent fund misallocation [9][10]. 7. **Impact of Interbank Leverage on Market Rates** - High interbank leverage is currently observed, with a 0.3% increase in leverage for every 10 basis points recovery in yields [12]. - The current high leverage levels make further increases challenging without a drop in short-term rates [12]. 8. **Future Market Outlook** - The bond market is expected to face strong resistance at the 1.6% level, with significant attention needed on the U.S.-China trade tensions and economic fundamentals [13]. - Economic pressures in Q3, particularly in consumption and exports, could lead to a decline in bond yields if conditions worsen [13]. Other Important Insights - The central bank's preference for currency depreciation over appreciation indicates a strategic approach to managing economic stability [5]. - The discussion highlights the importance of monitoring external factors, such as trade relations and economic indicators, which could significantly impact the bond market dynamics [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, highlighting a stable recovery in social confidence and the need to strengthen domestic circulation [4][5] - It suggests that the banking sector will maintain stable operating performance in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures, narrowing interest margin declines, controllable retail risks, and contributions from bond turnover [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted to a flexible approach in monetary policy implementation, focusing on the pace and intensity of policy tools without explicitly mentioning rate cuts [4][9] - The report indicates that the central bank will continue to guide financial institutions to increase credit supply while avoiding "funds idling" [5][9] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector's total asset growth rate fell to 4.9% as of May 2025, with large banks recovering high growth rates while rural commercial banks stabilized [10] - The net interest margin for the banking industry is expected to show an "L" shaped trend, stabilizing around 1.4% for the year, contingent on the stability of the deposit structure and cost improvements [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with stable dividend attributes and recovery expectations, suggesting that the sector will benefit from a low-interest environment [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and Beijing Bank, with cyclical stocks like Suzhou Bank also recommended [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the changes and consistencies in the monetary policy framework as discussed in the second quarter monetary policy committee meeting of 2025, highlighting a shift towards strengthening domestic circulation and a flexible approach to policy implementation [2][3][5]. Group 1: Changes Worth Noting - In terms of policy tone, the meeting removed the phrase "combining the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms" and added "placing greater emphasis on strengthening domestic circulation while coordinating the relationship between total supply and total demand" [3][7]. - The monetary policy approach has shifted from "timely reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates" to "flexibly grasping the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [4][8]. - The statement regarding exchange rates has been altered, removing "strengthening market management and resolutely correcting market pro-cyclical behaviors" [4][9]. Group 2: Consistencies Worth Noting - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing the need to "smooth the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, improve the efficiency of fund utilization, and prevent fund idling" [5][10]. - The balance between moderately loose monetary policy and preventing fund idling is significantly influenced by the scale of residents' deposits moving to non-bank institutions [10][17]. Group 3: Understanding the Central Bank's Liquidity Injection - Over the past two decades, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved, transitioning from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now incorporating more comprehensive methods such as open market operations and securities swaps [11][19]. - This change in liquidity injection strategy indicates that the central bank's current approach aims not only to support the credit expansion capacity of commercial banks but also to stabilize liquidity in the stock and bond markets [11][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting basically continued the previous tone. After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the expression of aggregate monetary policy tools was adjusted to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." - In terms of narrow - liquidity, attention remains on capital use efficiency and capital idling. Since the second quarter, exchange - rate pressure has eased, and the constraint on internal - external balance has weakened. The current capital price center has significantly recovered from a level higher than the policy interest rate, and it is expected that the scope for substantial further easing may be limited. - The meeting continued to retain statements related to the long - end yield trend. Recently, the bond market sentiment has strengthened, and leveraged trading has increased. Given that capital prices are unlikely to decline further, it is expected that the long - end yield will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6 - 1.7% in the short term [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting made more positive statements about economic recovery. The assessment of the economic situation in the meeting communique changed from "the economy is generally stable and making progress while maintaining stability" to "the economy shows a positive trend, and social confidence continues to be boosted," affirming more positive factors in economic recovery. However, the assessment of the external environment changed from "weak growth momentum" to "weakening growth momentum" [2][4][5]. 3.2 Policy Tone - The wording in the communique of this monetary policy regular meeting continued the "moderate easing" stance, changing from "choosing the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." The monetary policy setting followed the "moderate easing" statement in the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2024. The meeting communique continued to "strengthen" counter - cyclical adjustment and reiterated better use of the total and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools. After the "dual cuts" in May, it indicates that the policy maintains a loose orientation in terms of quantity to address domestic demand shortages and external uncertainties, but the form and rhythm of monetary policy operations have high flexibility [2][5][6]. 3.3 Narrow Liquidity - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the monetary policy regular meeting has consistently emphasized "preventing capital idling." Although the first - quarter monetary policy report did not mention "capital idling," this monetary policy regular meeting still emphasized it after "smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve capital use efficiency," continuing the statement since the fourth quarter of 2024. Since April, due to trade frictions, the capital price center has significantly loosened. Currently, DR007 has dropped to around 1.5%, suggesting that capital prices are unlikely to decline significantly further, and the capital environment will remain balanced [2][8][9]. 3.4 Exchange - Rate Stabilization - The intensity of the wording was reduced, and the "three resolutes" were no longer mentioned. The Q1 regular meeting mentioned the "three resolutes" regarding the exchange rate: correcting pro - cyclical behavior, dealing with market disruptions, and preventing over - adjustment risks. In Q2, as the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate eased, the relevant statements were removed from the meeting communique, leaving only the statement of "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate." Since April, the RMB exchange rate has gradually appreciated from a high of around 7.35 to around 7.17. In the short term, due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited, so the policy's wording on "stabilizing the exchange rate" has also been adjusted [2][13][14]. 3.5 Real - Estate Policy - The previous policies were recognized, and the goal was to "consolidate the stable situation," continuing the statement of the previous Politburo meeting. Compared with the Q1 monetary policy regular meeting, the communique for this meeting changed from emphasizing "promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and recover" to "consolidating the stable situation," following the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the end of April and recognizing the effectiveness of the previous round of policies [2][14][15].

Policy Changes - The meeting removed the phrase "combine the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform" and added "place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation" [2] - The monetary policy approach changed from "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasp the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [2] - The statement regarding exchange rates was modified, removing "strengthen market management and resolutely correct market pro-cyclical behavior" [2] Consistent Policy Stance - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing "smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve fund utilization efficiency" [5] - The focus on the scale of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions is critical for understanding the balance between monetary policy and preventing fund idling [6] Liquidity Injection Methods - Over the past 20 years, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now includes more comprehensive methods like buying government bonds and facilitating stock repurchases [7] - The current liquidity injection aims not only to support commercial banks' credit expansion but also to stabilize the liquidity in stock and bond markets [7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Insights - The trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" is accelerating, with significant changes in total volume, structure, institutions, and pace observed in the first five months of the year [9][18] - The effective credit demand remains weak, leading to a strong policy-driven effect on credit issuance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [9][10] - The loan interest rate decline has significantly slowed down, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for credit [14][18] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of Credit Issuance This Year - The total amount of new loans in Q1 was nearly 10 trillion, with a year-on-year increase, but the monthly new loans in April and May hit historical lows [9][10] - The structure of credit issuance shows a rise in short-term loans for enterprises while long-term loans are declining, indicating a credit rush phenomenon during the "opening red" period [9][10] - Policy banks are expected to maintain a higher loan issuance rate compared to commercial banks, which are experiencing a more pronounced reduction in credit [10][12] 2. Characteristics of Deposit Growth This Year - M2 growth remains high at 8%, but signs of fund circulation are emerging, with banks engaging in high-cost interbank borrowing while offering low rates for repurchase agreements [19][20] - The deposit generation rate from loans is weak, with a historical low gap between corporate loans and deposits [25][26] - The average duration of deposits is declining as banks adjust their liability structures to mitigate interest rate risks [26][29] 3. Market Implications - The ongoing trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" suggests a friendly monetary environment, with low funding rates expected to persist [30][33] - The emergence of fund circulation phenomena necessitates attention to potential marginal adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank [30][29] - The anticipated limited downward adjustment in LPR and loan rates in the second half of the year may lead to an increase in loan spreads despite a decrease in LPR [33][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].

这种做法不仅破坏了市场公平竞争，还让货币政策传导效果打了折扣。要知道，能享受这种"补息"的往 往是大客户。部分大企业靠着议价能力，倒逼银行违规补息，而这些大客户利用议价优势将银行贷款再 存回去，靠违规补息赚差价，导致资金在金融系统空转，还挤占了小微企业的资金，让小企业货款更难 收回。同时，这种靠拼利息拉客户的模式让银行间形成恶性竞争，而不是专注于探索合理定价。总体来 看，对银行来说，"手工补息"增加了成本，坏了规矩；对大企业来说，"好赚的钱"让其失去了专注主业 发展的动力；对中小企业而言，更是被挤占了宝贵的信贷资金。如此一来，渐渐沦为了"多输游戏"。 监管部门叫停违规补息，就是要纠正上述问题。简单来说，整治违规手工补息，可以让银行"钱袋子"更 稳，更好地帮企业搞生产。据《金融时报》记者了解，通过整治违规手工补息，银行每年能省下800多 亿元，这样一来，银行手里的资金更充足，既能更好地给企业贷款，支持工厂生产、店铺经营，还能防 范金融风险；同时，让钱"活"起来，以前有些企业靠违规补息赚差价，钱在金融系统里空转"不干活"， 规范之后，企业发现把闲钱存银行赚不到高利息了，就会拿去扩大生产、搞技术研发，比如开新工厂、 ...

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

不要凭历史数据，甚至"感觉"去简单地拍点位，而是要建立自己的投资体系，用分析框架体系在左侧分析市场，用投资策略体系在右侧应对市场。我们要 事先做好策略、做好情景假设、做好量化好指标。如果 (if) 遇到什么情况，那么 (so) 就要怎么应对操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250108— 固本培元，固收为王（-传部分省份指导限制国债交易-央行再提"防止资金空转"+资金面均衡偏松=微下)】 近期关于指导、限制债市交易的小作文每天都不缺席，但看债市反应的话，已经审美疲劳了。今日股市顽强收涨2BP（0.02%)，债市盘中勉强回调1BP， 似乎在争相唱响："我还是从前（924之前）那个少年，没有一丝丝改变"。 上午交易主线：每逢开会、股跌债涨。发布会上"固本培元"重出江湖，配合今日一则消息共同食用："祛邪"+"扶正"，连花清瘟防治甲流优势凸显。最终 还是博大精深的中医赢麻了。 【今日盘面】 240011 1.6025/1.6050/1.5905/1.6000 -0.75 240215 1.6550/1.6550/1.6360/1.6450 -1.00 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展11亿元 ...