中信建投（601066）研报称，从月度数据与市场表现来看，跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白酒蓄力"的鲜 明特征。当前市场资金更倾向于布局零食、乳业等景气度明确、弹性更高的赛道，这类板块在政策支持 与产业趋势共振下，月度数据持续改善，成为跨年行情的核心驱动力。而白酒板块则处于"磨底蓄力"阶 段，随着春节临近，终端备货需求逐步启动，近期头部酒企批价企稳、库存回落的边际变化已开始显 现，预计春节后随着消费场景修复与需求集中释放，白酒将迎来估值修复行情。 NO.2信达证券：机构资金买入力量有望增强配置型资金加快布局 ｜2025年12月29日星期一｜ 信达证券（601059）研报指出，截至上周五上证指数实现"八连阳"，市场成交量回升。内外部不确定性 缓和，催化跨年行情启动的积极因素正在增加：美股科技股反弹、人民币升值、有色金属(金银铜)价格 上行、商业航天等主题催化较多。该机构对本轮跨年行情空间保持乐观，建议投资者积极参与。 NO.1银河证券：A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 NO.3中信建投：跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白酒蓄力"的鲜明特征 银河证券研报指出，A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行，呈现出"小躁动"行情，截至上周五，上 ...

- The report mentions an A-share timing model, specifically a "wave model" that turned bullish mid-week, marking the first shift to a higher position since November 14, 2025. This model is used to determine optimal entry points for A-share investments based on market signals [1][29] - A short-term timing model for A-shares also turned bullish on major broad-based indices on Friday, indicating a positive outlook for traditional sectors such as consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing [1][29] - The report highlights a "position timing strategy" for the A-share market, which is used to adjust equity exposure based on market conditions. This strategy is supported by historical net value data and performance metrics [11][12] - A "multi-long-short timing strategy" for the A-share market is also discussed, which involves leveraging long and short positions in futures to optimize returns. This strategy is visualized through net value curves and position recommendations [13][14] - The report includes a "dividend growth timing strategy" for A-shares, focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential. This strategy is designed to capture returns from dividend-paying stocks while managing risk [21] - A "small and micro-cap timing strategy" for A-shares is mentioned, targeting smaller market capitalization stocks for potential higher returns. This strategy is based on specific timing signals for small-cap stocks [17][18] - The report also discusses a "Hong Kong stock position timing strategy," which adjusts exposure to Hong Kong equities based on macroeconomic and market signals. This strategy emphasizes resilience and flexibility in sectors like central enterprises and internet companies [15] - A "gold timing strategy" is included, which maintains a medium position in gold while avoiding silver due to uncertain market conditions. This strategy is based on the U.S. dollar index and other macroeconomic factors [22] - The report outlines "ETF portfolio strategies," including equity-biased and bond-biased portfolios. These strategies are designed to optimize returns through diversified ETF investments, with performance tracked through net value curves [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

Key Points - The article discusses recent positive developments in the Chinese financial market, including government policies aimed at boosting fiscal spending and consumer support [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a favorable policy environment to enhance long-term investments in the A-share market [5]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has introduced guidelines to support commercial rocket enterprises, indicating a focus on innovation in the aerospace sector [8][10]. - The market is experiencing a "small rally" with significant trading volume, particularly in sectors like metals and commercial aerospace [27]. Group 1: Government Policies - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [3]. - The government will support consumer goods through a subsidy program for replacing old products, aiming to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 2: Market Developments - The People's Bank of China reports on improving the investment environment for long-term funds in the A-share market, aiming for a healthy cycle between capital markets and the real economy [5]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has released guidelines for commercial rocket companies to facilitate their listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, supporting the growth of the aerospace industry [8][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis by Securities Firms - CITIC Securities highlights the performance of ETFs, noting that sectors like telecommunications and aerospace are gaining traction due to their alignment with international infrastructure competition [15]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the liquidity-driven nature of the current market rally, suggesting that the spring market conditions remain favorable [17]. - Guotai Junan identifies new investment themes emerging in commodity markets and the manufacturing sector, reflecting China's growing manufacturing advantages [19].

| 大涨板块 | 251226 (周5) | 251225 (周4) | 251224 (周3) | 251223 (周2) | 251222 (周1) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 玩天29 | 航天42 | 师天37 | 锂电池8 | 海南自由贸易港23 | | 2 | 海南自由贸易港8 | 机器人24 | 福建自贸/海西概念11 | 液冷服务器7 | 光通信12 | | 3 | 锂电池16 | 造纸4 | 液冷服务器3 | 海南自由贸易港5 | 国产芯片17 | | র্ব | 黄金3 | 跨境支付3 | 国产商片5 | PCB板4 | 民爆2 | | રે | 光伏7 | 西部大开发3 | 光通信8 | 有色 · 钨2 | 航天10 | | 6 | ST股10 | ST股15 | ST股10 | ST股13 | ST股23 | | 7 | 大消费9 | 国产商片9 | 大消费8 | 国产商片10 | 机器人9 | | 8 | 机器人9 | 大消费7 | 云计算数据中心5 | 大消费7 | 大消费8 | | 9 | 有色金属6 | 股权转让4 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 28 日 波动率策略应对跨年行情 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 近期在政策预期持续催化与市场风险偏好修复的驱动下，跨年行情前置，风险偏好与 波动率同步抬升，权益资产的波动特征与赚钱效应有望向可转债市场强力传导，波动 率因子直接受益于市场活跃度与定价重估。 ❑ 本周上证指数走势强势，权益带动下转债市场整体走强。 本周（2025/12/22~2025/12/26，下同）权益市场情绪明显回暖，上证指数录得八连 阳，权益带动下转债市场整体走强，各大股指普遍呈现上涨状态，中小微盘迎来 补涨行情，转债小盘指数（+2.17%）表现优于大盘指数（+0.1%，），高价指数表现 强势（+3.8%），低价转债走势较弱（0.53%）。行业维度，材料（+2.47%）、信息技 术（+2.39%）、工业（+1.59%）等板块走强，日常消费（-0.32%）和金融（-0.06%） 板块走弱。随着近期全球市场对于流动性紧张的预期边际放缓，慢牛预期下春季 躁动的前置，市场风格逐步由价值切换为成长，小盘指数持续走强，权益带动下 转债市场动量效应较为明 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月28日电，中信建投研报称，从月度数据与市场表现来看，跨年行情或呈现"成长先行、白 酒蓄力"的鲜明特征。当前市场资金更倾向于布局零食、乳业等景气度明确、弹性更高的赛道，这类板 块在政策支持与产业趋势共振下，月度数据持续改善，成为跨年行情的核心驱动力。而白酒板块则处 于"磨底蓄力"阶段，随着春节临近，终端备货需求逐步启动，近期头部酒企批价企稳、库存回落的边际 变化已开始显现，预计春节后随着消费场景修复与需求集中释放，白酒将迎来估值修复行情。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - The cross-year market trend is characterized by "growth leading, liquor accumulating," with funds favoring sectors like snacks and dairy that show clear momentum and higher elasticity, driven by policy support and industry trends [1][3] - The liquor sector is in a "bottoming accumulation" phase, with demand for inventory preparation increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, indicating a potential valuation recovery post-holiday [1][3] Group 2: Liquor Industry Developments - Major liquor companies such as Gujing Gongjiu, Xijiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are signaling positive developments, revealing strategic plans and annual results amidst industry adjustments and high inventory levels [1][2] - Gujing Gongjiu aims to optimize product structure and expand growth through new product launches and enhanced market strategies, while Xijiu reported a stable sales figure of approximately 19 billion yuan for the year, with significant inventory reduction [2][6] - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on digital transformation and strategic upgrades, targeting younger consumers and enhancing brand value while maintaining price stability for its flagship product [2][8] Group 3: Performance Forecasts - As the 2025 annual report forecast period approaches, certain food and beverage sectors are expected to exceed performance expectations due to differentiated advantages, despite short-term revenue growth slowdowns [4] - The liquor sector is anticipated to see improved performance due to inventory control and channel optimization, while segments like prepared dishes and functional snacks are benefiting from consumer recovery and product upgrades [4] Group 4: Catalysts for Future Growth - Multiple catalysts are expected to drive better-than-expected Q1 results starting from late January, including the peak sales season for liquor companies during the Spring Festival and improved data from various consumer goods sectors [5] - The food and beverage sector is currently at historical low valuations, suggesting potential for significant upward movement as market sentiment improves [5] Group 5: Dairy and Processed Food Insights - The dairy processing industry is set to benefit from temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, accelerating domestic processing and improving profit margins for upstream dairy producers [10] - The average price of raw milk has shown signs of stabilization, indicating a potential turning point for the dairy market in 2026 [10] Group 6: Snack and Beverage Sector Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, snack companies are preparing for a peak sales season, with expectations for strong performance in Q1 due to extended inventory and sales timelines [12][13] - The beverage industry is currently focused on inventory reduction, with a more favorable competitive environment anticipated as seasonal activities ramp up [13]

宏观周报 春季躁动将至？ 宏观与资产论（20251228） 核心结论 一、本周美股开启"圣诞行情"，上证指数实现八连阳，资金面宽松也推动 近期利率债收益率多数下行。随着新一年临近，关于"跨年行情"和"春季 躁动"行情讨论升温，一般而言这背后的逻辑主要受岁末年初流动性与风险 偏好驱动，和宏观基本面关联度不高。不过在 2024 年、2025 年跨年行情均 出现了缺席——2024 年流动性明显不紧，但权益市场信心偏弱，而 2025 年 A 股躁动行情前置、美联储态度边际转鹰和人民币汇率承压导致 A 股表现不 佳；债市则在年末相对机会更好，到次年 1 月转为震荡。 相比起过去两年，我们认为 2026 年 A 股"春季躁动"行情处在一个更有利 的宏观环境，这也意味着可能 1 月股市机会将好于债市： 1、作为春季躁动的核心驱动力，流动性不是担忧。市场对海外央行政策中 性化定价较为充分，国内 2026 年上半年政策性降息和降准仍有空间，但迫 切性不强。国债利差走扩仍然支撑成长和顺周期的景气溢价。 2、从过去几年的跨年行情来看，股票和人民币走势较为同步。而不同于 2024 年末，今年年底人民币出现了有序升值。尽管我们认为短期 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the buying power of institutional funds is expected to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days of gains" and market trading volume recovering [2][8] - Positive factors catalyzing the year-end market rally include the rebound of US tech stocks, appreciation of the RMB, rising prices of non-ferrous metals (gold, silver, copper), and various themes in commercial aerospace [2][8] - The report emphasizes that the key factor driving the index to break through the upper range of the consolidation zone is the influx of incremental funds, particularly the gradual increase in institutional buying power [2][8] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for the return of overseas funds, with the RMB appreciating nearly 4% against the USD in 2025, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate breaking the "7" mark [9] - The report notes that the recent acceleration of inflows into stock ETFs indicates a significant increase in the net inflow scale of ETFs related to the CSI A500, suggesting that institutional funds are accelerating their layout [12][14] - The private equity fund management scale increased significantly by 1.04 trillion RMB in October 2025, reaching 7.0076 trillion RMB, and continued to rise to 7.0383 trillion RMB in November, indicating a potential important source of incremental funds for the market [14][15] Group 3 - The report highlights that there are currently no signs of accelerated inflows from resident incremental funds, but there is optimism for a seasonal surge in Q1, particularly in years when the Spring Festival is later [17][25] - The report suggests that the tactical foundation of the bull market remains solid, with the potential for a resonance between profit improvement and fund inflows [30][31] - The report recommends increasing allocations to value sectors and suggests that the technology sector typically shows significant excess returns during the spring market [36][37]