Group 1 - The U.S. government has expanded the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with 407 product codes added to the tariff list, effective from August 18 [1] - The expanded tariff primarily targets intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, such as steel billets and metal structural components [1] - As of June 2025, China's aluminum exports to the U.S. are expected to account for only 6% of total aluminum exports, indicating that the tariff policy mainly affects market sentiment rather than actual trade volumes [1] Group 2 - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply has stabilized, with a production capacity of 44.19 million tons and a utilization rate of 97.2% as of July, indicating strong operational willingness among smelters [2] - The upcoming traditional peak demand season ("Golden September and Silver October") is expected to drive demand growth, particularly in aluminum cable and aluminum foil sectors [2] - China's aluminum market fundamentals are strong, with low inventory pressure and limited downside for aluminum prices, suggesting a potential opportunity for buying on dips [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side of pure benzene has been relatively strong recently. The supply of petroleum benzene has been stable, and the overall operating rate of hydrobenzene has increased significantly. The demand side shows structural differences, with an increase in the consumption of pure benzene in some products. However, the profit margins of downstream products are compressed, and the release of substantial incremental demand from new production capacity is slow. The inventory in East China ports has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand in the domestic market are both increasing in August - September. Although the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption are still concerns [3]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market remains oversupplied. New production capacity is being continuously released, and there are still large - scale plant commissioning plans in September - October. The demand improvement is limited due to insufficient terminal consumption. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in the supply - demand surplus in August - September, whether the market can maintain inventory reduction remains to be observed [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On August 19, the main contract of styrene closed down 0.06% at 7,226 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 (+14 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.06% at 6,182 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil closed at 63.4 (+0.6 dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 66.6 (+0.8 dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,095 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene's sample factory inventory was 20.9 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.3% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.9 million tons (-1.0 million tons), a 6.42% decrease. The port inventory of pure benzene was 14.6 million tons (-1.7 million tons), a 10.43% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly production of styrene was 36.9 million tons (+1.0 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS among downstream 3S products changed differently. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up the cost of naphtha. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 million tons in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position. Reliance Industries in India emphasizes the need to develop petrochemical production capacity [9]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as the basis, are presented in the report. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha are also included [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory data of styrene and pure benzene from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are provided, showing changes in production volume and inventory levels [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene downstream products from August 8 to August 15, 2025, are given, including styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, EPS, ABS, and PS [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to delayed tariff negotiations and increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the upcoming peak consumption season in China [1] - For copper, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has increased to 70.61%, supported by State Grid orders, which boosts downstream cable consumption, and the enhanced substitution of refined copper rods for scrap copper rods as some production-reduced enterprises resume operations [1] - In the aluminum sector, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with industry operating rates recovering, and there are expectations that the peak season will drive consumption [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index constituents exhibit significant cyclical characteristics, closely related to global economic conditions and fluctuations in commodity prices, with industry allocation covering basic metals, precious metals, and rare metals [1] - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Index (930708), selecting representative companies from the A-share market in the non-ferrous metal industry, covering multiple sub-industries including precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in July experienced a seasonal slowdown, but year-on-year growth remained robust due to favorable policies and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units each, with month-on-month declines of 7.3% and 10.7%, respectively, while year-on-year growth was 13.3% and 14.7% [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in July totaled 1.834 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6% but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [2]. - The cumulative retail growth rate for the domestic automotive market improved from -12% in January to 11% by June, indicating a "front low, middle high" trend [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 50,129 units in July, marking a year-on-year increase of over 126% [3]. - Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units in July, while NIO delivered 21,017 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 2.53% [3]. - Li Auto's deliveries fell nearly 40% year-on-year, highlighting the competitive challenges faced by some brands [3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is undergoing a comprehensive effort to address excessive competition, with positive progress reported in reducing "involution" [5]. - The number of new car price reductions has increased, with 113 models experiencing price cuts from January to July 2023, indicating a trend towards more rational pricing [5]. - The automotive industry's profit margin reached 6.9% in June, reflecting improved market order and reduced pressure [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to see further growth during the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period, supported by ongoing policies and new model launches [7]. - The government has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of long-term special bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which is anticipated to stabilize consumer confidence [7]. - Consumer spending is expected to increase, with savings growing rapidly, enhancing purchasing power and enthusiasm for vehicle purchases [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, most commodities are in a state where short - term trends are relatively balanced, and the current market operability is poor, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][9] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable with average spot trading volume. The trading of pure cotton yarn improved, and prices were slightly stronger [2] - In July, the inventory digestion in China slowed down, but it is expected to improve in August due to the approaching peak season. Tight inventory still supports prices [2] - In July, China's cotton imports were still at a low level, with 50,000 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% or 1.48 million tons [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2] - The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of central - southern Brazil in the second half of July was bullish, with a year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and the impact of declining yield continuing to show [3] - In the short term, due to the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound. In the medium term, the US sugar futures price has not bottomed out [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales rhythm this year is fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the output forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be listed. Due to high temperatures this year, coloring was slow, fruit size was small, and the quantity of high - quality goods was small, so prices were high [4] - As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31% [4] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the new season. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated strongly. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market mostly rose [6] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas is still high. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished product inventory of tire enterprises increased [6] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, with an increase in bonded area inventory and a decrease in general trade inventory. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to decline to 11,500 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to rise significantly to 204,000 tons [6] - Overall, demand is average, rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is decreasing, and market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined significantly. The spot price of Shandong Moon was stable at 5,500 yuan/ton, the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,300 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was stable at 4,200 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.099 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 2.5% [7] - In July, domestic social retail data weakened month - on - month, and the driving effect of trade - in programs weakened, indicating a continued decline in domestic demand [7] - Currently, domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and pulp demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as it approaches the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable [8] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The overseas quotation has risen for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot prices is small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain at a low level [8] - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8] - As of August 15, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low, and inventory pressure is relatively small [8] - Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not yet started. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Supply and Demand - As of August 15, PTA production capacity is at 76%, with a 1.3% increase due to the restart of several plants, including 1.5 million tons from Taiwan and 2.25 million tons from Yisheng [3] - Polyester factory load has slightly increased, with the overall polyester load rising to approximately 89.4%, a 0.6% increase [3] - There is a local improvement in the operating rate and shipment volume in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the overall market remains weak [3] Price and Profitability - On August 18, PTA spot processing fees are around 185 yuan/ton, with futures processing fees at 239 yuan/ton for TA2509 and 342 yuan/ton for TA2601 [2] - The spot market shows a trading range for PTA prices between 4650 and 4690 yuan, with some transactions occurring at lower prices [1] Market Outlook - The PTA supply-demand situation is expected to improve in the short term due to increased maintenance plans amid low processing margins, providing some support for the basis [4] - However, with the new PTA facility from Hailun Petrochemical coming online, the medium-term supply-demand outlook appears weak, limiting the upward potential of PTA basis [4] - The traditional demand peak in September and October may provide some support for PTA, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 4600 and 4800 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Urea - The short - term rebound of the urea futures is mainly driven by the export expectation on the demand side, with the co - existence of the lag in export policy implementation and the time constraint of Indian tenders. The secondary driver is the weak support from the increase in compound fertilizer production to industrial demand. However, the overall high supply situation remains unchanged. In the future, it is necessary to track the winning bids of Indian tenders and August export volume. If the export fails to meet expectations, the domestic supply pressure will drag down the futures price. It is recommended to maintain a band - trading strategy [33]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated. The main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risks and supply - side uncertainties. Geopolitical factors support oil prices in the short term, while the supply increase from OPEC+ suppresses the upside potential. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path affects market risk appetite. Geopolitical factors are the core variables for short - term price fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, expand the spreads between October - November/December contracts, and capture opportunities in volatility contraction in the options market [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. In August, PTA plants had many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing margins, so the PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally. However, with the approaching traditional peak season and new PTA plant commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited. For other products in the polyester industry chain, their prices and processing margins are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the demand has improved recently, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas is expected to rise in August, which will limit the rebound. For PVC, the supply pressure is large due to the release of new capacity, while the downstream demand remains weak, so it is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for the price. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the price increase is limited. For styrene, the supply is high in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve as some plants plan to shut down for maintenance and export expectations increase. The price is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound is restricted by high inventory and limited oil - price support [48]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE and PP, on the supply side, PP maintenance is decreasing, PE maintenance is increasing in mid - to - late August, imports are low, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation in August - September. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates are low, but there is potential for restocking as the peak season approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to close short positions around 7000 for the previous short - selling strategy on LLDPE and continue to hold the LP01 spread [53]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant supply pressure, with high production and imports in August - September, and the port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The traditional demand is weak, and the low profit of downstream industries restricts the operating rate. The MTO profit has recovered, and attention should be paid to the start - up of a certain MTO plant at the port from late August to early September. The 09 contract is expected to see strong inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - rationing expectations [56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 18, the 01 contract closed at 1754 yuan/ton (+0.98% compared to August 15), the 05 contract at 1790 yuan/ton (+0.39%), the 09 contract at 1731 yuan/ton (+0.58%), and the main contract at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [28]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton on August 18 (+21.74% compared to August 15), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 59 yuan/ton (-4.84%), the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was - 23 yuan/ton (-43.75%), and the spread between the UR and MA main contracts was 665 yuan/ton (+3.76%) [29]. - **Positions**: On August 18, the long - position of the top 20 was 101,968 (-0.89% compared to August 15), the short - position of the top 20 was 123,878 (+3.00%), the long - to - short ratio was 0.82 (-3.77%), the unilateral trading volume was 167,760 (+53.80%), and the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts was 3,573 (unchanged) [30]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of small - sized anthracite in Jincheng and power coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner remained unchanged. The price of power coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.29%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong decreased by 2.75%. The estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry processes remained unchanged [31]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong increased by 1.76%, 1.16%, and 0.53% respectively, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The FOB prices in China and the US Gulf also remained unchanged [32]. - **Regional Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi changed by - 50%, - 7%, and 4% respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong changed by 35.14%, 17.65%, and - 5.26% respectively, while the basis in Shanxi decreased by 13.39% [33]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine in Shandong and 45% S/CL compound fertilizers in Henan remained unchanged, and the compound - fertilizer to urea ratio decreased by 1.15% [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily domestic urea production decreased by 0.78%, the coal - based urea production decreased by 0.99%, and the small - sized urea production decreased by 0.95%. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 1.51%, the weekly maintenance loss decreased by 4.48%, the factory inventory increased by 7.86%, and the port inventory decreased by 3.93%. The number of production - enterprise order days decreased by 3.68% [33]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, Brent crude was at $66.60/barrel (+1.14% compared to August 18), WTI at $63.35/barrel (-0.11%), and SC at 485.20 yuan/barrel (-0.76%). The spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed to varying degrees [35]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was at 209.95 cents/gallon (+0.04%), NYM ULSD at 224.62 cents/gallon (+0.26%), and ICE Gasoil at $645.50/ton (-1.68%). The spreads of RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 also changed [35]. - **Refined - Product Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, Europe, and Singapore changed on August 19 compared to August 18 [35]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, polyester bottle - chips, and other products changed slightly on August 18 compared to August 15. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also changed [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The CFR China PX price was $828/ton on August 18 (+0.6% compared to August 15), and the PX - related spreads also changed [40]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA East - China spot price was 4670 yuan/ton on August 18 (+0.2% compared to August 15), and the PTA - related spreads also changed [40]. - **MEG Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: The MEG port inventory was 547,000 tons on August 18 (-1.1% compared to August 11), and the expected arrival volume was 54,000 tons (-8.7% compared to the previous period) [40]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products, changed to varying degrees from August 8 to August 15 [40]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: On August 18, the prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda increased by 2.4% and 0.8% respectively. The prices of East - China calcium - carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC decreased by 1.0% and remained unchanged respectively. The SH2509 contract increased by 1.1%, and the SH2601 contract decreased by 0.1%. The SH basis increased by 146.8% [45]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East - China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 42.3% [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast - Asia and CFR India prices of PVC remained unchanged, and the export profit increased by 48.9% [45]. - **Supply - Side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 2.0%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 1.4%. The profit of externally - sourced calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 3.7%, and the Northwest integrated profit decreased by 5.1% [45]. - **Demand - Side Indicators**: The operating rates of caustic - soda downstream industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing increased. The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as pipes and profiles also changed [45]. - **Inventory Indicators**: The East - China caustic - soda factory inventory increased by 6.6%, the Shandong caustic - soda inventory increased by 1.6%, the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.1%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.5% [45]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the Brent crude (October) was $66.60/barrel (+1.1% compared to August 15), the WTI crude (September) was $63.42/barrel (+1.0%), and the CFR Japan naphtha price was $571/ton (-0.3%). The pure - benzene - related prices and spreads also changed [48]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East - China styrene spot price was 7290 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.1% compared to August 15), and the styrene - related spreads also changed [48]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [48]. - **Inventory**: The Jiangsu port inventory of pure benzene decreased by 1.4%, and the Jiangsu port inventory of styrene increased by 8.5% [48]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industry chain, such as Asian pure - benzene, domestic hydro - benzene, and downstream products, changed from August 8 to August 15 [48]. Polyolefins - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the L2601 contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-0.23% compared to August 15), the L2509 contract at 7292 yuan/ton (-0.19%), the PP2601 contract at 7048 yuan/ton (-0.51%), and the PP2509 contract at 7026 yuan/ton (-0.45%). The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed [53]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The East - China PP raffia spot price was 6960 yuan/ton on August 18 (-0.29% compared to August 15), and the North - China LDPE film - grade spot price was 7210 yuan/ton (-0.14%). The basis of North - China plastics remained unchanged, and the East - China PP basis increased by 14.29% [53]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: The prices of East - China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, PP injection, PP fiber, and PP low - melt co - polymer changed on August 18 compared to August 15 [53]. - **PE and PP Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%, the PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1%, and the PP downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.3% [53]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 13.76%, the PE social inventory decreased by 1.23%, the PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.07%, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 4.06% [53]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On August 18, the MA2601 contract closed at 2396 yuan/ton (-0.66% compared to August 15), the MA2509 contract at 2293 yuan/ton (-0.99%), and the MA91 spread was - 103 yuan/ton (-7.29%). The basis and regional spreads also changed [56]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% on August 18 (+0.64% compared to the previous period), and the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (+10.41%) [56]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 72.63% on August 18 (-0.74% compared to the previous period), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.92% (+0.68%), and the operating rates of other downstream industries also changed [56].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘下探之后反弹，上方均线压力较大。上周挪威镍有一定补充，进口货源偏紧的情况有 一定缓解。产业链上，矿价稳定，镍铁价格稳中有升，矿端挺价且有一定上探迹象，成本线有小幅上升。 不锈钢库存继续下降，后期金九银十消费或继续提振。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同 比下降。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121650，基差1310，偏多 3、库存：LME库存210414，-1248，上交所仓单23051，+910，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly compared to before. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2]. - As the traditional consumption off - season for downstream industries is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously backlogged orders have been released. At the same time, holders of goods have a high willingness to sell, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has corrected, the bullish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support of MA20. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for stainless steel is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a 0 change. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts for stainless steel is - 75 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for stainless steel is - 14,994 lots, a decrease of 1,580 lots. The position of the main contract for stainless steel is 134,400 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity for stainless steel is 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 285 yuan/ton, with a 0 change [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel point [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles turned negative. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was 5.7%, with automobiles and electronics leading the way, while the output of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, and private investment declined. From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, for the 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in prices in all tiers of cities narrowed [2]. - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month in July, which was the second consecutive month of significant growth in retail sales, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The June data was revised up significantly to 0.9% [2]. Key Points to Watch No news on this day [2]