9月，零跑汽车成首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌，赛力斯、小鹏、小米均突破4万辆。自主车企也在 新能源板块全面发力。 进入"金九银十"销售旺季，创新高、翻倍增长成为9月销量"成绩单"频繁出现的关键词。 造车新势力销量表现迎来变化，零跑汽车以超6.66万辆的交付量，不仅刷新自身单月销量纪录，更成为 首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌。赛力斯、小鹏汽车、小米汽车9月交付量均突破4万辆，将造车新势 力销量排名前四的入围门槛提升至4万辆。 | | | | | 原川 1月 1 | 录川凹山 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 439777 | 上汽集团 | 21.0% | 40.4% | 3193270 | 20.5% | | 396270 | 比如防电 | 6.1% | -5.5% | 3260146 | 18.6% | | 302000 | 中国一汽 | 8.7% | 6.3% | 2383000 | 5.6% | | 280469 | 奇瑞集团 | 15.5% | 14.7% | 2007768 | 14.5% | | 273125 | 吉利汽车集团 | 9.2% | 3 ...

随着9月车市销量出炉，国内车市第四季度销售旺季也正式拉开，车企开始围绕年底冲量目标发力，行 业竞争将进入更激烈阶段。 造车新势力销量表现迎来变化，零跑汽车以超6.66万辆的交付量，不仅刷新自身单月销量纪录，更成为 首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌。赛力斯（601127）、小鹏汽车、小米汽车9月交付量均突破4万辆， 将造车新势力销量排名前四的入围门槛提升至4万辆。 进入"金九银十"销售旺季，创新高、翻倍增长成为9月销量"成绩单"频繁出现的关键词。 吉利、长安等头部企业，通过新能源车型与海外市场的双重发力，巩固市场地位。9月，吉利汽车新能 源车型销量达16.52万辆，同比增长81%，环比增长12%，长安汽车（000625）、长城汽车（601633）新 能源销量分别同比增长87%、52.55%；9月上述3家车企海外销售分别为4.1万辆、6万辆和5万辆，均实 现同比增长。 自主车企在"金九"销售季中也展现出了不少重要变化，在新能源板块的全面发力、海外市场的规模化突 破和依托技术研发进行差异化竞争使得增长势头尤为强劲。比亚迪（002594）以39.63万辆的新能源汽 车销量成绩领跑，海外销售7.1万辆；今年前9个月，比亚 ...

在刚刚过去的假期 国庆、中秋双节同庆 在 政府补贴加持、 房企大力促销的双重利好下，市场认购活跃，不少项目推出新品房源或创新优惠玩法，带动"银十"销售旺季迎来开门红，江门房地产 市场呈现稳中提质的火热态势。 来看看这组数据 根据江门市住房和城乡建设局初步统计数据，10月1—8日全市主要房地产项目认购 住宅约1220套，成交面积约为12.98万平方米，成交金额为10.64亿元， 成交均价为8202元每平方米，量价表现稳健。 从区域表现看， 台山市认购住宅346套、开平市认购住宅247套、蓬江区认购住宅195套位居前列；此外， 新会区认购住宅131套、江海区认购住宅103套、 鹤山市认购住宅107套、恩平市认购住宅88套，各区县表现均有亮点。 今年以来，江门持续推出"好房子"建设相关活动。9月，江门开展"好房子·江门造——江门'好房子'调研暨'房地产+'模式研讨活动"，通过权威专家主题分 享和行业大咖圆桌研讨等多元形式，构建出"政府牵头引导、房企互动交流、专家智力赋能、媒体广泛传播"的协同链条，受到行业高度关注与积极反响。 江门楼市迎来一波火热行情 多个楼盘售楼处人气旺盛 看房客络绎不绝 另一方面，补贴福利落地， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on October 10, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Red dates rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal rose over 1%. Container shipping to Europe and live pigs dropped over 3%, and eggs and polysilicon fell over 2%. Many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:21 on October 10, polysilicon 2511, cotton yarn 2601, and rapeseed meal 2601 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2512, Shanghai silver 2512, and rebar 2601 had large - scale capital outflows [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened high, declined during the day, and closed flat. Due to mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the failure of Panama to resume production, supply concerns increased. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies support downstream demand. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are expected to rise mainly in a volatile manner [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the holiday, lithium carbonate opened and closed lower. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in the peak season. After the Tibetan Mining obtained the mining right, the supply - demand remains loose. The market is in the stage of shock consolidation [10][11]. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak season is over, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has recovered, and the expected production in October is high. The downstream demand is affected by funds and rainfall. With the weakening of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13][14]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate has increased slightly, but the peak - season demand is less than expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, PP is expected to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but the performance is not as expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, plastic is expected to decline in a volatile manner [17]. PVC - The PVC operating rate has increased, but the downstream demand is low. The export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. With the cost weakening, PVC is expected to decline under pressure [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. The supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand remains stable. The market will fluctuate within a narrow range [20]. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower. The supply is high, and the demand is affected by weather and holidays. The futures price has fallen below the key level, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [21][22].

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown a year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with September 2023 recording 6,377 signed contracts, a rise of approximately 5.7% compared to 6,033 contracts in September 2022 [1] - The market is primarily driven by demand for affordable housing, particularly in suburban areas, with 13 out of the top 20 selling communities having average prices below 10,000 yuan per square meter [1][2] - The current market trend indicates a shift towards price reductions as sellers adjust their expectations, leading to a more favorable environment for buyers [3][4] Market Performance - In September, the second-hand housing market did not exhibit the expected seasonal uptick typically associated with the "Golden September" period, as many buyers remain hesitant, believing prices have not yet reached their lowest point [3] - The top 20 communities by transaction volume include several previously less prominent developments, indicating a market trend of "trading price for volume" where buyers prioritize cost-effectiveness [2][4] Price Dynamics - The average transaction prices in the top-selling communities vary significantly, with some properties seeing drastic price changes, such as a 1,200% increase in the average price of South City Garden [2] - The ongoing price adjustments and negotiations between buyers and sellers are reshaping the market, with many sellers now listing properties at prices lower than the market average to facilitate quicker sales [3][4]

这一销售高峰与9月以来的"新车潮"密切相关。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，仅9月22 日至28日，国内车市就有18款新车上市或亮相，包括理想i6、问界M7、尚界H5等多款车型。 多款新车的集中发布直接带动了门店客流与订单量的攀升。一位鸿蒙智行销售人员透露，以新 款智界R7为例，假期期间订车仍需等待4至6周才能交付。 （鸿蒙智行一批新车正等待交付 本报记者焦文娟/摄） 行业层面，"金九"成色初步显现。 乘联会数据显示，9月1日至27日，乘用车市场零售销量达 177.6万辆，环比增长12%。 记者丨 焦文娟 编辑丨包芳鸣 金珊 国庆中秋假期（下文简称："双节"），车市热度延续。记者发现，有品牌车型价格一口气 下 调近7万元，还有部分车型补贴高达5万元。 10月8日晚间，鸿蒙智行公布假期大定数据，9月30日至10月7日累计大定突破4.85万辆。 一是明确从2026年1月1日起，新能源汽车购置税将"免征"改为"减半征收" ，这意味着消费者 购车成本将最高增加1.5万元。 二是国家层面的"以旧换新"补贴政策在部分省份已于9月提前 结束。 一位经销商人士分析称，这种"错过就不再"的预期，促使大量观望中的消费者选择 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for the building materials industry is "Oscillatory consolidation" [3]. - The rating for the aluminum industry is "Expected to be strong in the short - term and oscillatory, pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining news" [4]. 2. Core Views - For building materials, in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continues to decline. The winter storage this year is sluggish, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, due to the continuous overseas interest - rate cut expectation, the favorable macro - atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3. Summary according to Content For building materials - **Production suspension situation**: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will suspend production from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and some will stop after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real - estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic sentiment, the price center moved down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. For aluminum - **Production data**: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In September, the proportion of molten aluminum increased slightly, and in the first week of October, the overall start - up rate of aluminum processing adjusted seasonally with obvious internal differentiation [3]. - **Sub - sectors of aluminum processing**: The start - up rate of aluminum cables decreased due to logistics and price factors, but orders are strong and are expected to recover. The start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, with weak new orders for building profiles and differentiated performance of industrial materials and photovoltaic frames. The start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1 percentage point, affected by capital and accounts receivable. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, with stable demand for industrial products but weakening peak - season momentum [3]. - **Inventory situation**: On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons from September 29 and 32,000 tons from September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum may face pressure in the early post - festival period. In October, some northern enterprises expect to increase the proportion of molten aluminum, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to remain low, supporting the aluminum price [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply - side tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support copper prices upward, but if precious metals form a stage top, the short - term copper price increase may slow down [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue volatile and strong due to the increased proportion of molten aluminum and seasonal consumption recovery [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy consumption shows peak - season characteristics, and cost provides support, but due to increasing warehouse receipts, the upside space is limited [9]. - Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations due to post - holiday de - stocking and positive sector sentiment [12]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term due to normal production during holidays, positive sector sentiment, and structural risks in LME zinc [14]. - Tin prices may maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term due to tight supply - demand balance and peak - season demand recovery [16]. - Nickel prices may face downward pressure in the short term but have limited downside in the long term, and short - term waiting and long - position entry on dips are recommended [18]. - Lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand, with social inventory decreasing. Supply recovery expectations may pressure the market [22]. - Alumina has short - term support in ore prices but faces over - capacity and supply recovery pressure. Short - term waiting is recommended [25]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain volatile operation, and attention should be paid to RKAB approval progress [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: After the National Day, copper prices were strong. LME copper 3M rose 0.71% to $10,776/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 86,650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 275 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 18,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support copper prices, but if precious metals peak, the short - term increase may slow. Shanghai copper main contract range: 85,500 - 87,800 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M range: $10,680 - $10,900/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On the first day after the National Day, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum 3M rose 1.16% to $2,782/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,100 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 57,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Shanghai aluminum main contract range: 21,000 - 21,250 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M range: $2,750 - $2,820/ton [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: AD2511 contract rose 1.93% to 20,550 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased by 200 yuan/ton, and domestic regeneration aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consumption shows peak - season characteristics, cost provides support, but warehouse receipt increase limits upside space [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose 1.19% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,013/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased to 35,800 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations due to post - holiday de - stocking and positive sector sentiment [12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose 2.36% to 22,330 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,028/ton. Domestic social inventory increased slightly to 150,200 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term due to normal production during holidays, positive sector sentiment, and structural risks in LME zinc [14]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.37% to 287,090 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and demand in traditional sectors is weak but improving in the peak season [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices may maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. Domestic main contract range: 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton; overseas LME tin range: $36,000 - $39,000/ton [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Shanghai nickel main contract rose 2.96% to 124,480 yuan/ton. Spot market trading was average, and cost was stable [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices may face short - term downward pressure but have limited downside in the long term. Short - term waiting and long - position entry on dips are recommended. Shanghai nickel main contract range: 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M range: $14,500 - $16,500/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: MMLC index was flat at 73,011 yuan. LC2511 contract rose 0.74%. Domestic weekly production was 20,635 tons, and inventory decreased by 2,024 tons (-1.5%) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lithium carbonate has strong supply and demand, with social inventory decreasing. Supply recovery expectations may pressure the market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2511 contract range: 71,000 - 74,800 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 9, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.28% to 2,880 yuan/ton. Shandong spot price fell, and overseas prices also declined. Import window opened [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Alumina has short - term support in ore prices but faces over - capacity and supply recovery pressure. Short - term waiting is recommended. Domestic main contract AO2601 range: 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel main contract rose 1.02% to 12,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some markets changed slightly, and social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless steel is expected to maintain volatile operation, and attention should be paid to RKAB approval progress [28].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a mixed performance, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][2][5] New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2] - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - First-tier cities, such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, exhibited stronger price performance, with September new home prices rising by 0.48% month-on-month and 6.87% year-on-year [3] - The increase in new home prices is attributed to the active launch of quality projects by real estate companies in core cities [3][4] Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, marking a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [5][6] - Second-hand home prices have been declining for 41 consecutive months, with a cumulative drop of 5.79% in the first three quarters of the year [5][6] - The second-hand home market is under significant pressure, particularly in second-tier cities, which experienced the largest price declines [6][7] Policy Impact - Various cities have begun implementing policies to alleviate pressure on the second-hand housing market, such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing tax policies [7] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, and the stabilization of home prices is seen as crucial for restoring market confidence [7]