说说我的看法： 这篇策略的核心是觉得未来市场会出现全面牛市，就是所有的行业都会上涨，比如说保险、券商以及实物资产，我觉得这种难度比较大了，即便是未来出口 生态改变了，对中国经济来说，大多数行业都已经更新了，市场将制造业看成了是人工智能为代表的先进制造业，而传统的制造业是很难获得需求的兴趣。 国金证券对美联储降息的解读为"预防式"降息，这话怎么说呢？就是说这次降息有点被动，在通胀还没有回到2%的时候，美联储的政策目标转向了，已经 从之前的防通胀转向了保就业，这就是说为了防止就业持续下滑而采取的降息举措。 这对美国经济来说是促进增长，也会加大美股市场的流动性，对新兴的经济体来说，货币贬值的压力会缓解，另外随着美联储的降息，其他经济体也会有跟 随效应，这样货币的扩张空间就打开了。 对中国而言，因为我们是出口大国，所以随着预防式降息的开启，对我们外部的需求会增加，所以未来出口企业机会比较大。 所以，这家券商最终得出的结论是，A股真正的牛市还在孕育，并且还没有开始。 因为目前属于结构性的牛市，属于科技为代表的成长行情，但是市场大部分行业还没有完全表现，这主要还是基本面尚处于一个复苏的过程，而美联储的预 防式降息是开启改 ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年9月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：FOMC会议降息落地；白银：突破上涨 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：820-840元/克、10000-10400元/千克 1600 2100 2600 3100 3600 4100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价 金银比 伦敦金现:IDC 美元/盎司 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 美元/盎司 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 美国:国债收益率:通胀指数国债(TIPS):5年 % Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.33%，伦敦银回落-0.06%。金银 ...

Monetary Policy Impact - On September 17, the Federal Reserve "restarted" interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.0% and 4.25%[2] - This 25 basis point cut was anticipated due to recent economic indicators showing a slowdown, particularly in non-farm employment[2] - The Fed's cautious stance suggests a likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in October, while December's expectations remain uncertain[2] Historical Context - The Fed has previously experienced seven instances of "hawkish rate cuts" after pausing, often in response to confirmed economic weakness or crisis events[2] - The current rate cut is categorized as a "preventive rate cut," similar to historical instances in 1985, 1995, and 2002, which reflect economic uncertainty but aim for a soft landing[3] Market Reactions - Historical analysis shows that "preventive" rate cuts tend to positively influence emerging market stocks, growth stocks, and commodities, while the dollar may weaken[3] - Following the Fed's rate cut, global stock performance is likely to depend on the U.S. economic fundamentals, with past instances showing varied outcomes based on economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Fed's median projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 have been revised upward to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, while unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 4.5%[11] - The core PCE inflation forecast remains stable, with projections of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for the same period[11] Sector Performance - In the wake of the rate cut, sectors such as real estate and consumer goods are showing signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes in first-tier cities and improved car sales[4] - Commodity prices, particularly for coking coal and industrial silicon, have seen upward trends, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics[4]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%[2] - The decision aligns with market expectations and reflects a "prudent easing" policy stance[3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year[5] - Consumer spending has shown signs of weakness, while investment in equipment and intangibles has improved[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 1.6%, significantly lower than the 2024 level[7] Employment Trends - Non-farm payrolls have averaged only 29,000 new jobs over the past three months, well below the break-even level needed to maintain stable unemployment[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected thereafter[12] Inflation Concerns - The PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The Fed's cautious language regarding inflation reflects heightened sensitivity to rising price levels[13] Political Influences - Political pressure from former President Trump has become a significant variable affecting Fed policy, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts[15] - The appointment of Miran to the Fed Board is seen as a move to strengthen Trump's influence within the Fed[16] Asset Management - The Fed will continue its balance sheet reduction at a pace of $40 billion per month, with no changes to the current schedule[19] - The overall asset balance of the Fed has been gradually declining, with total assets at approximately $6.61 trillion as of September 10, 2025[24]

美联储悄然降息25基点，全球金融格局微调，中国家庭财务决策如何应变？ 深夜时分，一则来自华盛顿的重磅消息席卷全球金融市场：美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，降至4.25%至4.50%的水平。这是自2024年 12月以来，这位全球央行"领头羊"首次启动降息周期。此举的背后，是美国就业数据持续疲软的严峻现实，以及美联储在物价稳定与就业最大化之间，毅然 选择了后者。 然而，这场席卷大洋彼岸的货币政策调整，其"蝴蝶效应"正以惊人的速度穿越太平洋，触及每一个中国家庭的房贷合同。对于普通人而言，美联储的每一次 动作，都可能意味着月供的增减，以及家庭财务规划的重塑。 降息浪潮下的中国房贷：传导机制与时滞效应 美联储的降息信号，从华尔街的利率市场，正迅速向全球蔓延。本次降息被市场广泛解读为一次"预防式降息"，预示着美联储对未来经济增长的谨慎态度。 美国劳工部公布的就业数据，其增长停滞的迹象比市场预期来得更早，迫使美联储不得不更加关注就业市场的健康。 值得玩味的是，新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰甚至公开主张降息50个基点，这种内部观点的分歧，或许暗示着未来美联储货币政策的走向并非一成不 变，变数依然存在。 那么， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic conditions determine the slope and space of the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with preventive cuts resulting in smaller declines and earlier rebounds [2][27] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield often occurs 1-2 months before or after the last rate cut in preventive cut scenarios [28][75] - The timing of the low point in Treasury yields is closely related to the pace of interest rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][75] Group 3 - Despite the restart of interest rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to the rise in the long-term nominal neutral interest rate to the 3-3.5% range [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once if the PCE inflation is projected at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.4% [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with the term premium rising to around 0.9% in 2025 due to expanded debt supply and policy uncertainty [3][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11][12] - Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, falling short of market expectations. A preventive interest - rate cut has begun, and market expectations are gradually being met. Short - term market sentiment has cooled slightly, while long - term global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. The marginal impact of interest - rate cuts on total steel demand remains [11][12] - Domestically, the economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of introducing more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance is weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Export volume decreased slightly last week and is generally in a weak and volatile state [11][12] - In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved; the output of hot - rolled coils increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Overall, although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still generally weak. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw - material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled coil blast furnaces is 67 yuan/ton, a slight increase compared to last week. The spot price is about 26 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, and the valuation is neutral [7] 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons, about an 8.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4055 million tons, and hot - metal output has remained above 2.4 million tons. Currently, the output of hot - rolled coils is relatively high, and it is necessary to monitor whether demand can absorb the output [8] 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,000 tons, about a 1.9% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.6%. Overall demand is neutral, and exports currently have some resilience [9][116] 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.7799 million tons, and the inventory was marginally reduced [10] 3.5 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [13]

图/视觉中国 不是激进转向，而是"预防式平衡" 此次美联储选择25个基点的降息幅度，并非偶然，而是基于美国经济"通胀黏性未消、增长韧性承压"的 现实权衡，也体现了其以数据为导向的货币政策框架的核心逻辑。从早前市场预期来看，本次降息25个 基点本就是大概率事件——此前芝商所CME Group数据就曾预测，本次会议降息25个基点的可能性为 96.1%。而部分市场呼吁的50个基点的激进式降息并未被采纳。背后的关键考量，在于美联储对通胀回 落节奏与经济下行风险的双重把控：一方面，前几个月美国核心通胀环比增速已出现连续放缓迹象，服 务业价格压力边际缓解，表明通胀下行路径基本稳固，为降息提供了"窗口"；另一方面，经济韧性的边 际弱化信号已不容忽视——2025年8月美国失业率升至4.3%，创四年来新高，同期非农就业新增人数远 低于预期，劳动力市场与消费动能的走弱，让政策层不得不提前应对经济增长放缓的风险。 当地时间9月17日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要释放关键政策信号——将联邦基金 利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%—4.25%，这是自2024年12月美联储降息25个基点后时隔9个月的首 次降息操作， ...

每经记者｜兰素英 岳楚鹏 宋欣悦 每经编辑｜何小桃 兰素英 ◆本周，美联储宣布今年来首次降息，下调25个基点。从美国总统特朗普过去的表态来看，这个降息幅度远未达到他的预期。然而，9月议息决议已经公 布超过48个小时，特朗普却罕见保持了沉默。这一现象的背后折射出美联储的"生存智慧"，在政治高压环境下展现出了出人意料的团结。美联储主席鲍威 尔是如何赢得这场独立性之战的？他口中的"风险管理"决策又将给美国经济带来什么？《每日经济新闻》记者连线惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺 拉等多名专家解读。 ◆ 停火决议遭美一票否决，以军推进攻势，加沙民众"逃无可逃"；美国对H-1B签证加收10万美元新费用；英伟达50亿美元入股英特尔；OpenAI疯狂挖角 苹果硬件骨干，首批硬件最快明年发布；美股再创新高，美元连涨三日，白银时隔14年重回43美元。 这场"预防式降息"究竟会带来经济"软着陆"，还是将美国经济推向"类滞胀"的困境？ "鹰派的嘴，鸽派的手"：鲍威尔的生存智慧 特朗普的"沉默48小时"： 揭秘美联储降息背后， 鲍威尔如何赢得一场11:1的独立性之战 美联储主席鲍威尔 图片来源：新华社 胡友松摄 美联储终于迈出了降息的 ...