Economic Indicators - In September, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 52, while the services PMI dropped to 53.9, indicating a slight slowdown in economic expansion [2] - The composite PMI also decreased to 53.6, marking the lowest level since June 2025, with new orders and employment indices declining [2] - Despite the slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may help prevent a recession [3] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China has released a draft for public consultation on the basic requirements for food delivery platforms, focusing on service management and fee transparency [4] - The draft aims to regulate platform fees and promotional behaviors to prevent unfair competition and ensure food safety [4][5] Energy Consumption - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with the manufacturing sector showing the highest growth at 5.5% [6] - The electricity demand growth reflects a robust economic recovery, although supply challenges remain due to mismatches in demand and supply timing [7] Computing Industry Initiatives - Hubei Province plans to develop a computing industry cluster, aiming for a total computing power of 25 EFLOPS by 2027, with a focus on integrating computing with optical communication and chip industries [8] - The measures encourage the development of a diverse computing infrastructure and aim to avoid homogeneous competition among cities [9] Labor Market Concerns - A survey indicates that 24% of young employees in the US and Europe are very concerned about potential job loss due to AI, compared to only 10% of older workers [10] - The rise of AI technology presents both challenges and opportunities for young workers, who may leverage AI to enhance their skills and productivity [11] Agricultural Sector Trends - The price of live pigs has dropped significantly, with a 10.4% decrease from early September and a 24.4% decline from the peak in February, reflecting an oversupply in the market [12] - Despite short-term measures to control production, the long-term outlook for the pig farming industry suggests a need for reduced production capacity to balance supply and demand [13] Stock Market Performance - On September 24, the stock market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high [14] - The semiconductor sector continued to perform strongly, driven by developments in AI and chip demand, while consumer sectors like tourism showed weakness [15]

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - Since September, the oil market has shown a range-bound trend due to oversupply and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with a downward shift in the price focus expected in Q4 [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, abandoning the "production cut to support prices" strategy in favor of prioritizing market share, leading to increased global oil supply pressure [3][4] - The U.S. oil production is expected to rise, with the EIA predicting a record output of 13.44 million barrels per day by 2025, driven by an increase in drilling activity [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. sanctions on Iran, are contributing to supply uncertainty, which may limit the adjustment space for oil prices [7][8] - The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on Russian oil set at $47.6 per barrel, which could further impact global oil supply dynamics [7] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Major energy agencies maintain an optimistic outlook for global oil demand, with the EIA forecasting consumption to reach 103.8 million barrels per day by 2025, an increase from previous estimates [9] - Despite the positive demand outlook, concerns about oversupply persist, with expectations of significant increases in oil inventories due to OPEC+ production hikes [9][10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent preventive rate cut of 25 basis points is the fifth of its kind in the past 30 years, indicating a response to rising employment risks despite stable GDP growth [1] - Historically, previous preventive rate cuts have led to a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with GDP growth reversing its downward trend and a slight decrease in unemployment rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's action is a response to increased employment risks, not a significant downturn in GDP [1] - The historical context shows that similar rate cuts have previously resulted in economic stabilization and recovery [1][2] - The current market conditions suggest that new opportunities may arise as the economic landscape evolves post-rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated but the extent of the cut was debated, particularly between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell [3][5][21]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. economy's previous claims of prosperity are now being questioned, especially after disappointing employment data, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 104,000 [11][19]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down previous employment figures by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weaker job market than previously reported [13][17]. - The current inflation rate stands at 2.9%, which is above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, complicating the decision to lower rates [25][27]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump has been pressuring the Fed to lower rates more aggressively, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points that were implemented [34][36]. - The relationship between the White House and the Fed has been tense, with Trump openly criticizing Powell and attempting to influence Fed decisions by appointing allies to the Fed [40][45]. - The urgency from the Trump administration stems from the need to stimulate the economy ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, prioritizing short-term economic performance over long-term inflation risks [55][57]. Group 3: Global Implications - The Fed's decision to lower rates is expected to lead to increased liquidity in the global market, potentially driving up asset prices linked to the dollar, such as gold and U.S. equities [60][63]. - A significant influx of dollars into the global market could benefit emerging economies, but it may also lead to challenges for U.S. exports if the dollar appreciates [67][69]. - Historical patterns suggest that the impact of rate cuts on various assets can vary significantly depending on the economic context, with current conditions indicating a complex scenario for future monetary policy [71][73].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is a preventive measure aimed at supporting the economy amid signs of slowing growth and a weakening labor market [1][3][9] - The U.S. economy shows a divergence, with strong investment in technology sectors while traditional manufacturing and real estate remain weak [3][9] - The interest rate cut is expected to influence global markets by lowering U.S. Treasury yields, potentially leading to a reallocation of funds towards higher-yielding non-U.S. assets, especially in emerging markets [4][5] Group 2 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on China is primarily through three channels: external monetary policy constraints, exchange rate and capital flow effects, and market sentiment and risk appetite [6][7] - The rate cut may provide more policy space for China's central bank to balance domestic growth and risk management, as it alleviates external pressures on the RMB [7] - Historical analysis indicates that during Fed rate cut cycles, market styles and sector performances exhibit common characteristics, although each cycle's specifics can vary significantly based on the macroeconomic context [8]

不是说好降息利好股市，不是说好降息之后会有大牛市的么？为何美国宣布降息25个基点之后，A股为何出现两连跌呢？特别是在19号，股市出现了大幅度 下跌，大部分蓝筹都吃了瘪，大盘一度下探到3800点，最终单日上证指数跌了1.15%。 你可能会说，不是一直在说美国经济出问题了么？非农都已经爆冷成什么样了，而股市又是经济的晴雨表，为何美股持续往上走呢？股市是经济的晴雨表确 实没错，但股市还是经济的蓄水池。 美国现在通胀又抬头了，在通胀的情况下，大家肯定会着急寻找抗击通胀的资产。股神巴菲特近日也是一改近几年的风格，不再增加现金储备，开始大幅度 增持日本股市。不用怀疑，现在除了黄金跟比特币，全球最好的资产依然是美股。 我一直在跟大家说，一定会分清楚这一轮降息，到底是预防式降息，还是应对式降息，因为只有应对式降息，那才是真正的大放水。 如果你看看美联储的资产负债表，你就知道他们现在一方面靠降息放水，另外一方面还在抛售资产回收美元，以达到收水的目的。 我们A股这边持续下跌，美股却走出了两连涨的气势，黄金则是继续震荡。如果你看过我18号当天的预测视频，你应该就可以明白了。那我今天就再次把背 后的逻辑给大家用大白话说清楚，希望可以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have not led to a significant decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which is contrary to historical trends where such cuts typically result in lower yields [1][3][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past 50 years, there have been 12 interest rate cut cycles, which can be categorized into two distinct types: "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" [3][6]. - Preventive rate cuts, such as those in 1995 and 2019, occur before economic downturns and typically result in smaller, short-lived declines in 10-year Treasury yields, averaging a drop of 167 basis points [6][7]. - Recessionary rate cuts, like those during the 2007 financial crisis, are more aggressive and prolonged, leading to larger declines in yields, but the rebound in rates occurs much later [7][9]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current situation is influenced by three main factors that are hindering the expected decline in long-term yields: limited rate cut capacity, rising term premiums, and reduced foreign investment demand [12][21]. - The long-term neutral interest rate in the U.S. has increased to 3%-3.5%, limiting the number of potential rate cuts to about 3-4 times, while the market anticipates 4-5 cuts [13][15]. - The term premium, which compensates for the risks of holding long-term bonds, has risen from negative to 0.9%, partly due to a significant increase in Treasury issuance [17][19]. - Foreign investors, particularly from Japan and Europe, are less inclined to purchase U.S. Treasuries due to competitive yields in their own markets, which diminishes demand for U.S. debt [19][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields suggests a likelihood of narrow fluctuations, with limited potential for significant declines or sharp increases [21][22]. - Key indicators to watch include the downward potential of yields, which may be constrained by the neutral rate and weak foreign demand, and the upward risks associated with increased political intervention and inflation pressures [23][24]. - Investors should focus on two critical timeframes: the outcomes of the upcoming rate cuts and the early 2024 Treasury issuance plans, as these will directly influence the term premium [27][28].

海外方面，美联储9月FOMC重启降息25bp，鲍威尔定调为"预防式降息"。当前市场预期今年余下两次 FOMC各降息25bp。降息落地后全球股市普涨，恒生科技、纳斯达克涨幅领先。 国内方面，反内卷政策市场化推进以及出口放缓等多重因素共振下，8月经济活动数据有所走弱。市场 方面，A港股风险偏好仍较高，创业板继续领涨。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周（9月15日-19日）债市震荡偏弱。尽管基本面数据走弱对债市带来支 撑，但税期资金面扰动加大，央行重启买债和赎回费改革意见征求情况等消息影响债市情绪，债市整体 表现震荡。债市波动加剧，建议逢调整适度配置，反向操作，及时止盈，做好流动性管理。重视高票息 资产和杠杆策略的价值。关注长债的配置价值。 本报告中的数据出处若未加特别说明，均来自Wind，彭博或博时基金。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 投资有风险，请谨慎选择。 尊敬的投资者： A股方面，资产比价方面，港股短期性价比好于A股，主因前期港股相对滞涨，前期压制港股表现的流 动性矛盾短期有望缓解。结构方面，美联储降息落地利好利率敏感型的港股、金铜有色和成长类资产。 港股方面，美联储预防式降息后，港股通常显现较强弹性 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% on September 17, 2023, aligning with market expectations[6] - The decision is characterized as a "preemptive rate cut," with an upward adjustment in economic growth forecasts[7] - The policy focus has shifted from "inflation risks" to a balance between "inflation and employment" considerations[9] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upward to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%[9] - Unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%, down from 4.5% and 4.4%[9] - Inflation expectations have been slightly increased for 2026, with PCE and core PCE rising from 2.4% to 2.6%[9] Group 3: Divergence in Rate Projections - The dot plot indicates a significant divergence in rate outlook among Federal Reserve officials, with some expecting only one more rate cut this year while others anticipate two[11] - The median federal funds rate is projected to be 3.6% by the end of 2025, a reduction of 30 basis points from previous estimates[11] - The end-point for rate cuts remains unchanged at 3.0%, consistent with earlier forecasts[11] Group 4: Market Implications - The dollar index is expected to trend weaker, but significant short-term declines are unlikely due to ongoing economic pressures[20] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is anticipated to maintain a "bull steep" characteristic, reflecting a potential widening of yield spreads[21] - U.S. equities may face some downward pressure amid high valuations and accumulating inflationary pressures, despite short-term resilience[21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The Fed's "preventive" interest rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and the previous loose trading of copper may end. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper price will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this pattern in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market has a certain double - festival stocking demand, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the de - stocking inflection point has not yet arrived. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of recycled aluminum is still tight, and the cost support is significant. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking demand provides phased support for the spot price. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward rush of Shanghai zinc. The upward continuous rebound requires the demand side to improve beyond expectations and the non - recession interest rate cut expectation to continue to improve. The downward breakthrough requires the TC to strengthen beyond expectations and the refined zinc to continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [6]. Tin - The supply side is relatively strong, which supports the tin price. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [8]. Nickel - The macro - atmosphere is weak, the mine - end disturbances increase but the actual impact is limited, and the cost still has support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. The medium - term supply is still loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term main contract reference range is 120000 - 125000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The macro - expectation has been digested, and the trading has returned to the fundamentals. The raw material price is firm, and the cost support still exists, but the peak - season demand of the downstream has not been realized as expected. The short - term disk is mainly in shock adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 12800 - 13200 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the news is calm. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate and sort out, and the main price center reference range is 70000 - 75000 [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80225 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the spot premium has decreased. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 6.85% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.59% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20750 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss is - 1784 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.74 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions have increased [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21950 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss is - 3292 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 272000 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The import loss is - 12395.82 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 177 dollars/ton [9]. - **Cost of Electric Deposited Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electric deposited nickel is 117171 yuan/ton, down 1.15% month - on - month [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 171.33 tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 860 dollars/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [15].