北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至 4.00%—4.25%，这是自2023年12月 暂停加息以来，美联储再次启动降息周期。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，此次降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。 这意味着美联储并不会进入持续性的降息周期，市场情绪因此降温。 降息消息公布后，美股冲高回落，截至收盘，道指上涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500跌0.1%。 9月18日早盘，三大股指小幅高开。 一反常态的"一团和气" 此次降息决定以 11:1 的投票结果通过。新任理事斯蒂芬 米兰成为唯一反对者，他主张直接降息 50 基 点。米兰的立场与其政治背景紧密相关，作为特朗普提名并火速上任的理事，他长期公开批评现任主席 鲍威尔的政策节奏，并呼应特朗普的政治诉求，多次呼吁大幅降息以刺激经济。 值得注意的是，同样由特朗普提名的鹰派理事鲍曼和沃勒，此次却选择支持25个基点的渐进式降息。这 一现象被市场解读为他们试图在政治压力与专业判断之间寻求平衡。两人虽认可降息的必要性，但认为 25个基点的调整更契合当前经济数据，能有效避免过度刺激引发通胀反弹。 美联储的这种分歧在"点阵图"中 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 25BP，重启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%至 4.25% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，维持月度减持美国国债的上限在 50 亿 美元，月度减持抵押贷券(MBS)规模在 350 亿美元。 ► 议息会议声明：就业下行风险正在上升 ► 经济指标预测：上调经济预期、下调失业预期 此次美联储给出的经济指标预期较 2025 年 6 月发生了一些变化： 上调经济增速预期。其中，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The rate cut is characterized as a "preventive cut" aimed at increasing market liquidity to stimulate economic activity and support the job market, while also mitigating the risk of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market reactions were muted, with initial gains in both stock and bond markets quickly reversing. The Dow Jones increased by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Investors had anticipated that the rate cut would boost the economy and corporate profits, contributing to recent highs in major stock indices [3] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve updated its "dot plot," indicating expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [5] - Some officials predict a total reduction of 125 basis points in the policy rate by the end of the year, reflecting a dovish stance among committee members [5] Group 4: Political Influence and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the rate cut may be influenced by political pressure from President Trump, with some arguing that the labor market is not weak enough to justify a rate cut [7] - Powell stated that political considerations do not influence the Fed's decisions regarding the benchmark lending rate, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%[11] - The Fed's focus has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "supporting employment" due to concerns over a slowing labor market[2] Economic Outlook - Non-farm payrolls have significantly declined, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to over 120,000 earlier in the year[12] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.3%[12] Future Rate Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year[28] - The median projection in the dot plot indicates a potential return to a natural rate of around 3.0% by 2027[15] Inflation Concerns - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.1% by year-end, with expectations of a decline to 2.6% by the end of next year[14] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of inflation rising again, particularly if tariff-induced cost increases persist[29] Market Impacts - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more than long-term yields due to the rate cuts[33] - The U.S. dollar is likely to face continued pressure, having already depreciated nearly 10% since the beginning of the year[33] Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts may provide more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to lower domestic interest rates[35] - Increased global liquidity could benefit China's stock market and stabilize the RMB exchange rate[35]

(文/陈济深 编辑/张广凯） 美国时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基准利率下调至4%-4.25%。 这是美联储自去年9月开启降息后第四次降息，也是今年以来首次降息。 本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳动力市场稳健的表述。利率预测中位值显示联储预 计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，即此次降息后，年内还有2次降息。 不过美国经济基本面的变化也使得鲍威尔不得不选择降息。 尽管本次降息25个基点符合市场预期，但无论美国总统特朗普还是白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗都在近日公开呼吁美联储需要大幅降息。鲍威尔则对此在利率决议发 布后的记者发布会上明确表示这是一次预防性降息，后续没有必要快速降低利率，降息50个基点并未获得美联储成员广泛支持，但是其也表示极为罕见的经 济局势导致联邦利率预测分歧较大。 截至目前，特朗普还未对本次降息发表评论，不过在9月15日，其还在社交媒体上表示降息幅度"必须比想象的要大"。 本次议息会议中，由特朗普任命，9月16日才任职的美联储理事米兰上任第二天就火线投下反对票，也是本次唯一反对25个基点降息的理事。而根据美联储 发布的点阵图信息， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% marks the first rate cut since the easing cycle began in September 2024, reflecting a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks [1][7][12]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The FOMC voted to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, with a dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut, which did not gain widespread support [1][7]. - The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][7]. - The dot plot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, with further cuts in 2026 and 2027 [2][9][11]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The economic projections for GDP growth have been revised upward, with 2025, 2026, and 2027 growth rates adjusted to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively [2][9][11]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while 2026 and 2027 are slightly adjusted down to 4.4% and 4.3% [2][12]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.1% for 2025, with a slight increase to 2.6% for 2026 [2][12]. Group 3: Powell's Interpretation - Powell's interpretation of the rate cut is somewhat hawkish, emphasizing risk management and a shift in focus from inflation to employment [3][12][13]. - The Fed's future policy path will remain data-dependent, with decisions made on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3][12][14]. - The current rate cut is characterized as "preventive" rather than "emergency," aligning more with historical precedents from 1967 and 1995 [3][14][31]. Group 4: Historical Context of Rate Cuts - The 1967 preventive rate cut was aimed at avoiding recession amid slowing economic growth, which ultimately succeeded in stabilizing the economy [4][19][20]. - The 1995 rate cuts were also preventive, aimed at extending economic expansion without triggering inflation, resulting in a positive market response [5][21][22]. - In contrast, the emergency rate cuts in 2001 and 2007 were reactive to severe economic downturns and did not prevent subsequent recessions [5][25][26]. Group 5: Implications for Asset Pricing - The rate cut is expected to support upward revisions in corporate earnings, positively impacting short-term stock performance [6][43]. - Short-term interest rates will decline, while long-term rates may remain resilient due to fiscal pressures, leading to a potential steepening of the yield curve [6][43][44]. - Gold prices may benefit from lower real interest rates and increased risk premiums associated with Fed independence [6][45]. Group 6: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 recorded a 12.4% year-over-year EPS growth in Q2, indicating a rebound in earnings expectations [6][44]. - The overall market sentiment remains sensitive to interest rates, demand, and profit margins, with high-quality growth stocks likely to benefit [6][44]. - The demand for gold ETFs has increased, reflecting a shift towards long-term hedging strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainties [6][46].

9月18日，美联储宣布2025年首次降息，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议决定降息25个基 点，把联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4%到4.25%之间，该利率决议符合市场预期。这也是美联储自去年 12月以来，时隔9个月的再度降息。去年9月至12月期间，美联储在三次议息会议上连续降息共计100个 基点，此后又连续五次"按兵不动"。 FOMC在当天发表的声明中承认美国就业增长放缓，提及失业率小幅上升但仍维持在低位，删除"劳动 力市场状况仍然稳健"的表述，并判断就业下行风险有所上升，但同时也认为美国通胀水平有所上升， 依然略高。 分析人士指出，美联储本次降息25个基点可以视作"预防性降息"，即通过释放更多流动性来刺激经济活 力，为就业市场托底，并预防美国经济出现"硬着陆"风险。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受新京报贝壳财经记者采访时表示，本次降息的核心触发因素 是近期就业数据的恶化速度、幅度和潜在风险远超通胀的温和反弹，美联储需要采取"预防性降息"来应 对可能加速恶化的就业形势。 白雪指出，由于近期经济、就业数据虽放缓，但并未失速，并未形成明确的经济衰退信号，因此并不足 以支撑降息50个基点的决定。降息 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government is implementing multiple policies to boost service consumption, emphasizing the importance of collaboration among various departments to enhance economic growth and improve living standards [1] - Weak demand is identified as a major issue affecting China's economic recovery, and releasing consumption demand is expected to promote economic growth, asset price increases, and investment willingness [1] - The overall performance of the economy remains stable, with the A-share market not experiencing unexpected impacts despite a hot stock market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market's optimistic sentiment persists despite a relatively mild economic recovery, similar to historical instances where stock indices rose during ROE downtrends [2] - Central fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in the coming years, with a shift in focus towards enhancing residents' income levels and promoting high-end manufacturing transformation [2] - The current economic data may not fully reflect the positive impacts of these policies, which are anticipated to materialize gradually over the next few years [2] Group 3 - Overseas liquidity easing is also beneficial for the A-share market, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively influence global equity markets [3] - The potential for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a "preventive rate cut," which may lead to a rapid rebound in U.S. inflation and positively affect global tech stock valuations [3] - Following the Fed's rate cut, it is anticipated that China's central bank may introduce new rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to alleviate domestic debt pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, amidst concerns of weak employment, persistent inflation above target, and increasing political pressure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, with 105 out of 107 analysts predicting this outcome [3]. - There is a potential for unprecedented voting divisions within the FOMC, with differing opinions on whether to maintain rates, cut by 25 basis points, or even cut by 50 basis points [3][10]. - The FOMC statement may acknowledge rising risks in the labor market, which could signal the beginning of a new easing cycle [5][9]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Recent employment data has shown significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs over the past year, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut [7]. - Despite the push for rate cuts due to employment concerns, inflation remains a critical challenge, with debates surrounding the impact of tariffs on prices [8]. - Officials are cautious about the potential for persistent inflationary pressures, indicating that any rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on incoming data [8][9]. Group 3: Political Influences on Monetary Policy - Political pressures from the Trump administration have intensified, potentially complicating the FOMC's voting dynamics, with new appointments aligning with the administration's views on interest rates [6]. - The ongoing legal battles surrounding board member Cook's position may further influence the voting landscape, adding uncertainty to the decision-making process [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Projections - Goldman Sachs projects three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for further cuts in 2026, depending on employment market conditions [13][14]. - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are expected to vary, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut potentially leading to a 0.5%-1% increase in the S&P 500 index [15][16].