加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。 据央视新闻，当地时间6月29日，加拿大财政部在一份声明中表示，加拿大已取消数字服务税，以推进 与美国的贸易谈判。 该声明还表示，加拿大总理卡尼和美国总统特朗普将恢复贸易谈判，以期在7月21日之前达成协议。加 拿大财政部部长商鹏飞将很快提出立法，废除《数字服务税法》。 加美两国围绕数字服务税的争端在数日内快速升级。当地时间6月26日，商鹏飞表示不会推迟向科技公 司征收数字服务税的计划。27日，特朗普宣布，因加拿大对美国科技公司征收数字服务税，美国将停止 与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并将很快宣布对加拿大的新关税税率。同一天，美国财长贝森特表示，美国 政府或将对加拿大征收的数字服务税发起"301调查"。 加拿大数字服务税自去年6月起实施，但首批税款将从6月30日开始收缴。根据计划，加拿大政府将针对 科技公司向加拿大用户提供数字服务或出售加拿大用户数据的收入征收3%的税，并追溯至相关公司 2022年的收入。这意味着符合征税标准的美国公司在7月底前将面临20亿美元的税款。而美国政府一直 对此持反对态度。 卡尼在声明中表示，"今天的声明将有助于重启谈判，以实现本月七国集团（G7 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of copper ore is tight in 2025, with an expected increment of 20 - 30 tons. However, domestic smelters are still increasing production, and the supply will continue to rise in the second half of the year, but the increment will drop to over 200,000 tons. Overseas, there are both production cuts and new productions [2][6]. - The market generally agrees that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, with differences mainly in the decline range. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate between 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and there is strong support at 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term [2]. - If the 232 investigation result is implemented, the price spread will narrow, but there is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - In 2025, the copper price has been constantly disturbed by tariffs and the supply side. The supply of copper ore is tight, and scrap copper has become a key raw material supplement. Due to the impact of US tariff policies, consumption has been advanced, and the apparent consumption growth rate in the first half of the year has exceeded 10%. The COMEX market has attracted global electrolytic copper, causing non - US inventories to drop to an absolute low. The price spreads at home and abroad show a large Back structure, with high delivery risks [4]. 3.2 Research Results Analysis - **Copper ore supply is tight, scrap copper supply is stable**: The supply increment of copper ore in 2025 is about 20 - 30 tons, and smelters' spot orders are at a loss. Domestic smelters increase production, mainly supplemented by long - term supply from overseas mines and increased scrap copper procurement. Overseas, some smelters cut production, while others start new production. Although the supply of scrap copper in China is tight, there is no actual reduction globally, but rather a supply mismatch [6]. - **LME inventory continues to decline, and the import ratio still has room to fall**: After the 232 investigation was announced, the price spread between COMEX and LME widened, and global copper inventory began to transfer. As of June 20, LME inventory decreased from 266,000 tons at the end of February to 100,000 tons. Most of the Russian copper in LME inventory has flowed into China. Before the 232 result is implemented, non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively. There is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously if the 232 result is implemented [8]. - **Consumption weakens in the second half of the year, copper price fluctuates weakly**: The consumption of electrolytic copper grew rapidly in the first half of the year, especially in April. The market generally believes that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies for household appliances, the end of the "trade - in" program for cars, the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, and the pre - consumption. Most believe that copper consumption will weaken marginally but remain resilient, and the price may correct periodically [10]. 3.3 Research Details - **Jiangsu copper rod enterprise**: The company's production and sales are basically hedged, with low inventory. The consumption of copper rods was good in the first half of the year but weakened in May. The processing fee was under pressure, and orders were concentrated in leading enterprises. The stamp duty also affected the company's profitability [12]. - **Jiangsu copper processing enterprise**: The company's production was strong in the first half of the year, with high production rates in March and April. It entered the off - season in June. The company is pessimistic about the demand in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies and the long payment cycle of customers [13]. - **Zhejiang trading company**: The company's hedging ratio is flexible, and it mainly imports EQ copper. The domestic scrap copper supply is tight, and the company expects the price to correct to 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term. There is a high risk of a short squeeze in the overseas market [14]. - **Shanghai trading company**: The company's copper trade volume is large, and it mainly imports copper through long - term contracts. The supply of copper concentrate has little increment, but the production of refined copper in China continues to increase. The consumption shows strong reality and weak expectation. The company is bullish on the long - term copper price [14]. - **Another Shanghai trading company**: The company mainly imports copper from "Belt and Road" countries. The shortage of copper concentrate is due to low processing fees. The Russian copper in LME warehouses will be shipped to China in batches. The overall supply and demand of copper are in a tight balance [15]. - **Yet another Shanghai trading company**: The market contradictions mainly come from the conflicts between traders and smelters and between raw materials and elements. The 232 result will affect the price structure, and the company is relatively optimistic about the price [17].

2025.06. 24 本文字数：1891，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 程程 据央视新闻报道，美国商务部宣布自6月23日起对多种钢制家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和冰箱 等"钢铁衍生产品"。 根据美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）的公告，新增为"钢铁衍生产品"的家用电器及相关产品将统一适用 50%的税率。征税金额将根据各类产品中所含钢铁组件的价值进行核算。 这八类产品具体包括组合式冰箱、冷冻柜；小型和大型干衣机；洗衣机；洗碗机；卧式和立式冷冻柜；烹 饪炉、灶具和烤箱；食物垃圾处理器和焊接金属架等。 新规适用于美国东部时间2025年6月23日凌晨00:01或之后入境或从仓库提取的商品。新规同时规定，如果 产品使用的是在美国本土的铸铁熔炼原料，即便在海外完成加工，也可以享受免税待遇。 影响将在数月后显现 尽管美国5月消费者价格指数（CPI）涨幅低于预期，但经济学家警告称，对钢铁和铝制品加征关税的影响 或将在数月后显现。 曾在拜登总统任期内担任美国国家经济委员会副主任、现任麻省理工学院高级研究员的霍纳（Daniel Hornung）表示，5月CPI低于预期 "主要是由租金和机票等短期内受关税影响不 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel-based household appliances, effective from June 23, 2025, impacting products like dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [1] - The tariff will be calculated based on the value of steel components in the products, and items using domestically sourced iron materials may qualify for exemption [1] - The expansion of tariffs under the Trump administration has significantly increased the scope, affecting nearly $200 billion worth of steel and aluminum products, which is almost four times the impact of the previous term [5] Group 2 - Economists warn that the effects of the tariffs on steel and aluminum products may take months to manifest, with initial price increases expected for large appliances reliant on these materials [3][4] - Historical data indicates that a previous 50% tariff on washing machines led to a 12% price increase, with related products also experiencing similar price hikes [3] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that 60% of builders anticipate price increases from suppliers due to the tariffs, with average renovation costs rising by approximately $10,000 per household [5] Group 3 - The ongoing "232 investigations" by the U.S. Department of Commerce may add complexity to the tariff landscape, as they assess whether imports threaten national security [7] - The investigations could lead to further uncertainty in negotiations with trade partners, as the combination of different tariff measures complicates the standard tax rates [7] - Currently, the U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which primarily addresses tariffs on automotive and aerospace products, leaving steel and pharmaceutical tariffs still under negotiation [8]

美国商务部长卢特尼克兜售232调查，宣称：这正让美国制造业复苏。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：232调查正在复兴美国制造业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, citing national security as the primary reason for this adjustment [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The increase in tariffs aims to provide greater support to the steel and aluminum industries and reduce the threat these imports pose to national security [3]. - An exception is made for imports from the UK, which will maintain the 25% tariff, allowing for negotiations on new tariffs or quotas before the July 9 deadline [3][4]. Group 2: Ongoing Investigations - Multiple Section 232 investigations are still ongoing, and the outcomes could lead to similar tariff adjustments for other industries, making them a point of concern for foreign trade enterprises [1][5]. - Industries currently under Section 232 investigations include semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, wood, copper, heavy trucks, and critical minerals [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The imposition of tariffs is expected to increase production costs for U.S. manufacturers reliant on imported intermediate goods, potentially harming their competitiveness in international markets [6]. - The OECD has revised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. down from 2.2% to 1.6% due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [6].