Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The meeting between China and the US led to a reduction in tariffs, but the actual consumption in the spot market has not been affected, and inventory continues to decline. However, due to factors such as pre - emptive exports and front - loaded domestic consumption, the de - stocking rate is expected to slow down, and it may be difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without positive stimuli. The alumina market is strongly bullish in the spot market, but with cost collapse and increasing supply expectations, the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Data - **Spot Prices**: On May 13, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,010 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,000 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,930 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,050 yuan/ton, closed at 20,005 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 140,816 lots and a position of 160,449 lots [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 601,000 tons; as of May 13, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 399,300 tons, down 2,225 tons from the previous day [1] Alumina Data - **Spot Prices**: On May 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 359 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: On May 13, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.89%) from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 522,186 lots and a position of 283,672 lots [2] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff adjustment has not affected the actual consumption in the spot market, and inventory is declining. In May, the sustainability of consumption is controversial. With the possible decline in photovoltaic consumption, the output of aluminum rods is increasing, while the output of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils is slightly decreasing [3] - **Alumina**: The spot market is strong, but the cost side is showing signs of collapse. The supply in May is likely to increase month - on - month, and the oversupply expectation remains unchanged [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina [4] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai Aluminum [5]

Group 1 - The implementation of adjusted tariffs between China and the U.S. officially began on May 14, 12:01 PM (Eastern Time) [1] - The State Council released the 2025 legislative work plan, which includes drafts for the National Development Planning Law, Financial Law, and revisions to the Bidding Law [1] - Guangzhou issued measures to promote high-quality development in pension finance, supporting eligible pension industry companies to expand direct financing channels through methods such as listing, public offerings, and bond issuance [1] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22% [1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.43%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.37% [1]

125%→10%、24%税率暂停90天 对美关税开始调整 今日（5月14日）12时01分起，我国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税调整措施开始实施。有关事项如 下： 一、调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年 第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。 二、停止实施《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委 会公告2025年第5号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公 告》（税委会公告2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025, the additional tariff rate on US imports will be adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% additional tariff rate on the US will be suspended for 90 days [1] - Since April, over 50 small and medium-sized banks have continued to follow up on deposit rate cuts. The 1-year deposit rate of Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank is higher than the 5-year rate, showing an extreme interest rate inversion [1] - The international oil price has risen significantly compared to last Friday, the soda ash price fluctuates, and the prices of cement and building materials continue to decline [2] - The PTA operating rate has rebounded, while the PX operating rate has recently declined; the asphalt operating rate in infrastructure has been rising [2] - The sales of commercial housing in second and third-tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near three-year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased compared to the same period [2] - The credit spread across the industry has recently declined slightly [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Production Industry - The additional tariff rate on US imports will be adjusted from 34% to 10% starting from 12:01 on May 14, 2025, with a 90-day suspension of the 24% additional tariff rate [1] Service Industry - Since April, over 50 small and medium-sized banks have cut deposit rates. Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank has an extreme interest rate inversion with a 1-year rate higher than the 5-year rate [1] Upstream - Energy: The international oil price has risen significantly compared to last Friday [2] - Chemical: The soda ash price fluctuates [2] - Building Materials: The prices of cement and building materials continue to decline [2] Midstream - Chemical: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, and the PX operating rate has recently declined [2] - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has been rising [2] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second and third-tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near three-year low [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased compared to the same period [2] Market Pricing - The credit spread across the industry has recently declined slightly [3] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends, with some rising and some falling [47] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various industries have different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil has increased by 8.44%, while the spot price of soda ash has decreased by 2.66% [48]

2025年05月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：需求预期好转，月差持续走强 | 2 | | MEG：装置意外停车检修，大幅上行 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：偏强运行 | 7 | | 沥青：原油反弹，偏强震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 11 | | PP：价格小涨，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：宏观情绪好转，短期震荡运行 | 19 | | 尿素：出口政策较为温和，中期进入震荡格局 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：市场情绪修复，盘面跟随上涨 | 24 | | 燃料油：日盘高开，短期或偏强震荡 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘大幅转强，外盘高低硫价差继续走弱 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏强，6-8反套、10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：预期好转震荡偏强，多PF空PR ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日持平，10 合约基差 121（+3）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部门发 布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市场仍在期 待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，市场预期 改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局 有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回 落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉 谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改 善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚 可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计 价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 101.25 美元/吨（+2.65）， 月均 98.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 95 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods has led to a resurgence in trade activities in Yiwu and Shenzhen, with businesses actively resuming orders and logistics operations. Group 1: Yiwu Trade Resumption - Following the reduction of tariffs, businesses in Yiwu have resumed trade with the U.S., with one merchant expecting to produce around 20,000 units of a product due to the favorable tariff news [1] - Logistics companies in Yiwu are also ramping up operations, with a warehouse filled with goods originally destined for the U.S., indicating a significant increase in shipping activities [3] Group 2: Shenzhen's Export Activities - In Shenzhen, foreign trade companies have begun contacting U.S. clients to restart orders, with one beauty product company reporting an urgent need from clients to expedite shipments due to inventory shortages [6] - A foreign trade supervisor in Shenzhen noted that projects previously stalled due to tariffs are now expected to resume, with plans to notify factories to expedite production [8] Group 3: Market Diversification in Shenzhen - Businesses in Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei area have been actively seeking new clients and markets, with reports of a 30% increase in foreign customers as they adapt to the changing tariff landscape [12] - Merchants in Huaqiangbei are optimistic about the future, viewing the current challenges as opportunities to strengthen their market presence [12] Group 4: Shipping and Logistics Adjustments - Shipping agents in Shanghai are preparing for increased activity as the tariff adjustments allow for the resumption of cargo shipments, with companies confirming updated shipping rates [15] - The release of previously held U.S. imported goods from bonded warehouses is also expected, indicating a return to normalcy in logistics operations [15]

当地时间5月12日，特朗普回应关税问题称，就算90天后中美未达成长期协议，美方对华关税也不会重 回145%的水平。中美发表联合声明宣布暂时降低关税，特朗普修正行政命令，价值低于800美元小额包 裹的关税税率从120%降低至54%。这一消息，对不少美国进口商和零售商以及美国民众来说，"都松了 口气"。美家电企业Shark Ninja、玩具公司Basic Fun等多家美企表示，将立即安排货物装船发运美国港 口。（看看新闻） ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：锂电派 美国大幅度降低对华关税后，中国锂电池对美国出口有望恢复。 5月13日，一家国内锂电池上市公司的中层向记者称， 降低肯定是利好，原先预计的美国市场电池需求以及公 司在美业务的增速应能确保 ，但具体情况内部仍在评估中。 5月12日，中国和美国政府发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，双方承诺将于5月14日前大幅下调关税，其中，美国 对中国输美商品的关税加征比例将由目前的145%下调至30% 。 美国政府在4月2日宣布对中国输美商品加征所谓对等关税，在多次上调税率后，美国对华电动汽车动力电池关 税和非车用锂电池关税分别升至173.4%和155.9%。这导致相关企业出口处于停滞、观望状态。 对于锂电池行业而言，最新措施生效后， 美国对华电动汽车动力电池关税将下调至58.4%，包括储能电池在内 的非车用锂电池关税下降至40.9%，降幅分别达115%和115.9%。 上述针对中国锂电池产品征收的关税，包括了今年一季度美国对华产品累计加征的20%关税、锂电池产品3.4% 的基础关税，以及去年基于301条款对中国锂电池所加征的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭低位震荡 | 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 13 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约报收 879.0 ...