Group 1 - The current trading price of COMEX silver is above $74.67, with a recent opening at $76.06 per ounce and a current price of $75.22, reflecting a decrease of 1.05% [1] - The highest price reached today was $76.28, while the lowest was $74.11, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - The meeting minutes indicate significant divergence among policymakers regarding which poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy: inflation or unemployment [2] - A majority of participants believe that adjusting to a more neutral policy stance will help prevent severe deterioration in the labor market [2] - Some participants emphasized the risk of persistent high inflation and cautioned that further rate cuts while inflation remains elevated could be misinterpreted as a reduced commitment to the 2% inflation target [2] - The minutes confirm that participants generally view reserve balances as having "dropped to ample levels," suggesting that initiating short-term Treasury purchases to maintain ample reserve supply is appropriate [2] - In 2026, the FOMC will see new regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, and leadership changes are on the agenda, which may alter market expectations regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [2] - Traders currently anticipate 1-4 rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, providing clear trading opportunities for those able to accurately predict policy direction [2] Group 3 - Silver is approaching a critical resistance zone between $80 and $85, which is both a Fibonacci extension level and the upper boundary of a long-term channel [3] - A successful breakout accompanied by increased trading volume could lead to higher price targets; however, profit-taking is likely to occur in this range, increasing the probability of short-term corrections or consolidations [3] - If silver prices fall below $70, the market conditions may shift dramatically [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened significantly, reaching a 14-month high against the US dollar (USD) due to a combination of hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and favorable commodity prices driven by China's recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of December 31, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.6700, reflecting a daily increase of 0.12% and an annual rise of over 7% since the low of 0.6420 in mid-November [1]. - Australia's inflation rate in October was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the RBA's target of 2%-3%, with December inflation expectations rising to 4.7% [1]. - Market pricing indicates a nearly 50% probability of an interest rate hike by March 2026, with mainstream forecasts suggesting a potential increase to 3.85% in the first meeting of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The RBA's hawkish stance is a key driver of the AUD's strength, while the Fed's easing expectations have contributed to a decline in the USD index by over 10% for the year [1][2]. - The Fed has implemented three rate cuts since September 2025, with current rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and further cuts are anticipated next year [1]. - The AUD benefits from rising commodity prices and improved trade balances due to recovering exports of iron ore and coal, alongside positive expectations from China's targeted investment plans [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD has formed an upward trend from 0.6420, currently consolidating around 0.6700, with resistance at 0.6727 and support at 0.6650 [2]. - The MACD indicates that bullish momentum remains, although it is slowing, while the RSI (14) is at 66.4278, suggesting that the market is not yet overbought [2]. - Institutions are optimistic about the AUD's future, with target prices ranging from 0.72 to 0.92 USD, although risks such as global economic slowdown and trade tensions may limit gains [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of LME spot prices supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Showing a tendency of oscillating upward [2]. - Lead: Inventory increase is pressuring the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: Exhibiting a strong - side oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, but attention should be paid to the policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84 with a daily decline of 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30 with a daily increase of 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140 with a daily decline of 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015 with a daily increase of 6.11% [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319 from the previous day, and the open interest was 144,462, a decrease of 21,562. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320, and the open interest was 195,074, a decrease of 30,842 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces) was 36,223,374, an increase of 32,119. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 2.64, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was - 592, a decrease of 442 from the previous day [4]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate keeping rates unchanged for "some time" [4]. - Reportedly, OPEC + is likely to maintain the suspension of the production - increase plan this week due to significant supply - surplus pressure [6]. - China has advanced the plan of issuing the first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs. The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted [6]. - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized strengthening research on key core agricultural technologies and efficient transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and developing new high - quality agricultural productivity according to local conditions [6]. - Li Qiang proposed to refine taxpayers and the scope of taxation and determine calculation methods for taxable amounts in different situations [6]. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength: 0; Silver trend strength: 0 [6] 2. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 98,090 with a daily decline of 0.78%, and the night - session closing price was 99,220 with a rise of 1.15%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,674 with a daily increase of 4.02% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 832,280, a decrease of 142,367 from the previous day, and the open interest was 625,625, a decrease of 17,019. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 30,309, a decrease of 34,327, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 1,036 [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 71,738 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons; the LME copper inventory was 149,475 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 26.21%, a decrease of 2.31% [7]. - **Spread**: The LME copper cash - to - 3M spread was 31.35, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day; the spot - to - near - month futures spread of Shanghai copper was - 240, an increase of 90 [7]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [7]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [7]. - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of the temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [7]. - From January to November 2025, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [9]. - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13% [9]. - The Chilean government initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine. Workers will prepare for a strike if the negotiation fails [9]. - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of the Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully test - run, a key step before production [9]. Trend Strength - Copper trend strength: 1 [9] 3. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23,380 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,083.5 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.10% [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 148,502 lots, a decrease of 94,405 lots; the open interest was 93,470 lots, a decrease of 217 lots. The trading volume of the LME zinc was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 232,259 lots, an increase of 4,129 lots [10]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 30 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.74 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 42,387 tons, an increase of 1,403 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons [10]. News - The 2026 national subsidy plan has new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The subsidy for new cars is 12% or 10% of the car price, with the upper limit remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy range for home appliances has been reduced, and the subsidy ratio for first - grade energy - efficient home appliances has decreased from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance dropping from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [11]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [11]. Trend Strength - Zinc trend strength: 1 [13] 4. Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,505 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,010.5 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 0.55% [14]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 69,782 lots, a decrease of 14,987 lots; the open interest was 53,891 lots, a decrease of 584 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead was 9,284 lots, an increase of 5,478 lots, and the open interest was 178,618 lots, an increase of 644 lots [14]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 1 lead premium was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 43.7 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.89 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 13,111 tons, an increase of 1,528 tons; the LME lead inventory was 245,275 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [14]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [15]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [15]. Trend Strength - Lead trend strength: 0 [15] 5. Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 326,330 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.47%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 5.46% [17]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract was 441,257 lots, a decrease of 12,067 lots, and the open interest was 43,769 lots, a decrease of 6,392 lots. The trading volume of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 180 lots, a decrease of 9 lots, and the open interest was 13,988 lots, an increase of 53 lots [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai tin inventory was 7,772 tons, a decrease of 133 tons; the LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 185 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton [17]. News - Similar to the news in the gold and silver section, including Fed rate - cut expectations, OPEC + production - plan news, China's subsidy and bond - issuance news, etc. [18] Trend Strength - Tin trend strength: 1 [19] 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 2,987 US dollars/ton, an increase of 38 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai aluminum main - contract trading volume was 369,628 lots, a decrease of 248,997 lots, and the open interest was 267,707 lots, a decrease of 21,548 lots [20]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 699,429 lots, a decrease of 609,434 lots, and the open interest was 404,205 lots, an increase of 7,530 lots [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 9,685 lots, an increase of 546 lots, and the open interest was 15,866 lots, an increase of 9,810 lots [20]. News - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [22]. - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [22]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 1; Alumina trend strength: 0; Aluminum alloy trend strength: 1 [22] 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,680 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton [24]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 1,000,602 lots, an increase of 215,362 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 298,305 lots, an increase of 33,281 lots [24]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 129,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 913 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. News - In September, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [24]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25]. - The Indonesian government has sanctioned 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [25]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval procedure for mines in 2026 [26]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [26]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel products [27]. - Safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks have affected the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with an expected impact of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [27]. - In November, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [27]. - China will implement export - license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the nickel - ore production target in 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [28]. - Fifty Indonesian nickel - mining enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land [28]. Trend Strength - Nickel trend strength: 0; Stainless - steel trend strength: 0 [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding whether inflation or unemployment poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% during its third rate cut of the year, with only 3 out of 12 policymakers voting against the decision [1] - Chairman Powell indicated that the current rate is sufficient to prevent severe deterioration in the labor market while still applying pressure on inflation [1] - Most officials believe that the risks to the labor market are skewed to the downside, while inflation risks are viewed as skewed to the upside [1] Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - The dot plot indicates that policymakers still expect one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by the end of the year [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 14.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 85.1% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 45.2%, with a 48.3% chance of no change and a 6.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 3: Leadership Changes - President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair in January, with former Fed Governor Warsh and NEC Director Hassett as top candidates [3] - Warsh advocates for maintaining the Fed's policy independence and supports reforms such as balance sheet reduction and deeper rate cuts [4] - Hassett favors monetary easing to stimulate growth and is inclined towards aggressive rate cuts if appointed [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-31 美联储分歧延续，⾦银回调后整理 重点资讯： 1）俄罗斯周一指控乌克兰试图袭击总统普京位于俄罗斯北部的官 邸，但未提供任何证据。基辅方面驳斥这一说法毫无根据，称其意在 破坏和平谈判。 2）中国国家发展改革委、财政部周二公布2026年大规模设备更新、 消费品以旧换新（"两新"）政策，明确在继续实施汽车、家电等消 费品补贴的同时调整品类和补贴力度，并将在全国范围内执行统一的 补贴标准，打击骗补套补等违法行为。 3）美国总统特朗普周一表示，美国已"打击"了委内瑞拉境内一个 用于装载毒品船只的区域，这将是自美国对马杜罗政府展开施压行动 以来，首次已知在委内瑞拉境内实施的行动。 4）美东时间30日周二，美联储公布12月9日至10日的货币政策会议纪 要，其中写道，在讨论货币政策前景时，与会者对美联储货币政策委 员会FOMC的政策立场是否具有限制性表达了不同的看法。 价格逻辑： 黄金：回撤性质偏向技术性整理而非趋势反转。最新公布的12月FOMC 会议纪要显示，政策分歧仍存但方向未改：多数委员认为在通胀回落 与劳动力市场边际走弱 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】据美联储最新公布的12月9日至10日会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们 分歧严重。 《纽约邮报》发文称，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰诺夫投票支持更大幅度的半个百分点降息，而芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦· 古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密特投票反对降息，支持维持利率不变。19名投票者中，有6人建议基准利率到 2025年底应达到3.75%至4%。 报道还提到，美国最新公布GDP数据显示，美国经济实际年增长率达到4.3%，为两年来最快，但通胀仍然是个问题； 大多数联储官员希望，只要通胀继续降温，未来还将有更多降息。 美联储纪要也显示，如果通胀如预期般逐步下降，大多数官员认为进一步降息是合适的。委员们一致认为，将根据需 要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应，并同意取消对常备回购操作的总额限制。 受上述消息影响，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.2%报48367.06点，标普500指数跌0.14%报6896.24点，纳指跌 0.24%报23419.08点。 热门股方面，IBM跌超1%，高盛集团跌近1%，领跌道指；万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.07%，特斯拉跌超1%，脸书 涨逾1%。 ...

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of participants believe that if inflation gradually decreases as expected, it may be appropriate to further cut interest rates, with most supporting a rate cut in December [1][4][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants support a rate cut in December, although a few indicated they might have supported holding rates steady after careful consideration [4][7] - Some decision-makers suggest that a pause in rate cuts for some time could allow for assessment of the recent neutral policy stance's impact on the labor market and economic activity [4][6] - The minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with the largest dissent seen in 37 years [5][9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Participants noted that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [6][9] - There is an observed slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September, leading to increased downside risks in employment [6][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Most participants believe that cutting rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while some express concerns about entrenched inflation risks [8][9] - There is a notable division among decision-makers regarding which poses a greater threat to the economy: inflation or unemployment, with many believing that a shift to a more neutral policy stance could help prevent severe labor market deterioration [9] Group 4: Reserve Management - The minutes confirm that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to manage reserves [10]

美联储12月货币政策会议纪要 公布。 当地时间 12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指 表现比较平淡 ， 并 均录得三连跌 。 美联储披露的12月货币政策会议纪要显示内部的分歧明显，在该纪要发布后，交易员维持美联储2026年内 两次降息押注。 贵金属走势分化 美股三大指数连续3个交易日下跌 当地时间12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收跌，其中道琼斯工业指数跌0.2%，报48367.06点； 标准普尔500指数跌0.14%，报6896.24点；纳斯达克指数跌0.24%，报23419.08点。值得注意的是，上述 三大股指均录得三连跌。 美股市场大型科技股涨跌互现。具体个股方面，特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达、苹果跌幅不足1%，Meta涨超 1%，亚马逊、微软、谷歌微涨。 银行股全线走低，拖累指数表现，不过普遍跌幅不大。其中，高盛、花旗集团跌近1%，摩根大通、摩根士 丹利、美国银行、富国银行等微跌。 能源股集体上涨，西方石油涨超2%，斯伦贝谢、康菲石油涨逾1%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙涨幅不足1%。 芯片股涨跌不一，费城半导体指数跌0.13%。具体芯片个股方面，英特尔、迈威尔科技涨超1%，科天半导 体、拉姆研究、应用材料 ...