金十财经 . 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示："我以开放的心态参加每一次 会议 。但根据我目前掌握的数据和信息，如果会议是明天举行，我认为没有理由 降低利率。" 堪萨斯联储主席施密德在表示："我认为我们目前的政策处于一个非常好的位置，除非有非常明确的数据，否则现在不应轻易调整政策。" 金融市场目前押注美联储将在下月会议上将基准利率下调25个基点，鲍威尔可能会释放相关信号。 7月就业数据意外疲软，加上5月和6月的就 业数据被大幅下修，进一步增强了市场对降息的预期。 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 三位美联储官员周四对下月降息的预期泼下冷水，投资者则在为美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的演讲做准备。 高盛表示，他们不认为鲍威尔周五的讲话会明确表示9月将降息，但预计他会向市场传达他可能支持降息的立场。 截至发稿，利率期货定价美联 储今年将降息约47个基点，9月降息的可能性为70.4%。 美联储决策者面临的挑战在于，尽管劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，这通常会支持降息，但通胀仍高于美联储设定的2%目标，而且由于特朗普政府 大幅提高 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Upstream**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's claim of $300 billion in tariff revenue is misleading, as actual revenue has only reached $100 billion by July, requiring an unrealistic daily collection of $13 billion over the next five months [2][7] - The "see-saw effect" of tariffs leads to reduced imports or increased prices, significantly impacting revenue from tariffs, as seen with U.S. soybean exports to China plummeting from 22 million tons to 3 million tons [4][6] - The "Laffer Curve" indicates that tax revenues can decrease if rates exceed a certain threshold, which the Trump administration underestimated, expecting $600 billion from tariffs but potentially receiving only $280 billion [6][19] Tariff Revenue Challenges - The projected $300 billion in tariff revenue is insufficient to cover the interest on the national debt, which exceeds $35 trillion, with interest payments alone expected to exceed $500 billion in the first half of 2025 [7][19] - Tariff revenues are eroding other tax sources, particularly affecting small businesses, leading to job losses and a potential decrease in personal and corporate tax revenues [9][19] Economic Impact - Tariffs are damaging the U.S.'s international credibility, with agricultural states facing political pressure and requiring government subsidies to offset losses from tariffs [11][19] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between inflation pressures and recession risks, with rising service prices linked to tariffs and agricultural states showing signs of economic decline [12][14] Future Implications - The long-term effects of tariff policies are creating a "lose-lose" situation for the U.S., with rising unemployment in agricultural states and a wave of small business closures [19][21] - China's response includes diversifying supply chains and increasing domestic production, which may lead to a more resilient trade system, while U.S. companies are relocating production to Mexico and Southeast Asia [21][23] Conclusion - The tariff policy is likened to a fleeting spectacle, promising $300 billion in revenue but ultimately leading to significant economic damage, including the decline of agricultural states and small businesses [24][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen at the cost end, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend. The exchange has restricted positions twice in the past month, causing market sentiment to decline and the sector to weaken. The main contract of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro - aspect**: DCE restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures JM2601 contract since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. China's August LPR remained unchanged. Overseas, Putin put forward requirements for Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [6]. - **Supply - and - demand**: After profit improvement, production and inventory have increased in recent weeks. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the demand for steel is still weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 235 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Since the exchange has restricted positions twice in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the sector has weakened. The main contract of ferrosilicon should be treated as a fluctuating operation [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: As of August 22, the position of ferrosilicon futures contracts increased by 9,158 lots to 443,000 lots, and the monthly spread increased by 12 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 442 to 20,474, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 5,460 yuan/ton [8][12][16]. - **Spot market**: As of August 22, the basis increased by 150 points to - 262 yuan/ton [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: As of August 21, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.52%, up 0.34% week - on - week. The daily average output was 16,205 tons, up 0.50% (80 tons) week - on - week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products decreased by 0.19% week - on - week, and the national ferrosilicon output was 113,400 tons. Production has rebounded rapidly for six consecutive weeks [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62,080 tons, down 4.76% (3,100 tons) week - on - week [30]. - **Upstream**: As of August 18, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of August 21, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke increased by 20 yuan/ton to 656 yuan/ton. As of August 22, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 40 yuan/ton to 5,390 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5,535 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in Ningxia decreased by 205 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 185 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.09 million tons week - on - week to 2.4075 million tons, and increased by 16.29 million tons year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the total export volume of ferrosilicon was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared with the same period last year. The ferrosilicon tender price in August was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with July [44][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. The macro - environment has led to a decline in market sentiment, and the sector is weak in the short term. The fundamentals show a mixed picture with production rising, inventory decreasing, and cost and profit factors varying. Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is bearish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the flood - control situation remains severe, and the steel industry has achieved good results due to reduced crude steel production. Overseas, geopolitical tensions exist between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes show an inflation - focused and hawkish stance [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level, raw material port inventory has decreased by 2300 tons, and downstream iron - water production is at a high level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Given the exchange's second position limit in a month, the market sentiment has declined, and the silicon manganese should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 22, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 589,000 lots, a decrease of 2368 lots; the 1 - 9 contract spread was 90, an increase of 2 points. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4703 to 70,094, and the spread between the manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts increased by 24 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, the Inner Mongolia silicon manganese spot price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Production**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The national capacity utilization rate is 46.37%, an increase of 0.62%, and the daily average output is 30,170 tons, an increase of 590 tons. The weekly demand of the five major steel grades for silicon manganese is 125,285 tons, a decrease of 0.08%, and the weekly supply is 211,190 tons, an increase of 1.99% [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons [31]. - **Upstream**: The electricity cost and manganese ore price have remained flat. The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 23,000 tons. The northern region's spot production profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the southern region's is - 520 yuan/ton [33][39][47]. - **Downstream**: The iron - water production is at a high level, with a daily average of 240,750 tons. The August silicon manganese steel procurement tender price has increased by 150 yuan/ton [51].

Group 1 - The recent trends in the gold market are influenced by both news and technical factors, with the Federal Reserve's policy direction being the largest uncertainty [1] - The latest meeting minutes indicate that most officials prefer to keep interest rates unchanged, while a minority suggests early rate cuts, leading to an 85% market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - The internal discussion within the Federal Reserve about adjusting the inflation target framework could lead to a hawkish interpretation by the market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic performance shows contradictions, with July's CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.0%, still above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 73,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The market sentiment reflects a scenario where inflation is not fully stabilized, but employment is declining, contributing to frequent fluctuations in gold prices [3] - Institutional trading patterns are evident, with gold prices experiencing sharp rises and falls, attributed to high-frequency trading [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold remains in a consolidation range, with daily fluctuations between $3,325 and $3,352 per ounce, and resistance levels at $3,348, $3,355, and $3,360 [4] - Support levels are identified at $3,330, $3,325, and $3,310, with the daily pattern showing solid support below but insufficient bullish momentum [4] - Short-term indicators suggest a balanced state between bulls and bears, with MACD showing a bullish crossover but diminishing volume [4] Group 4 - The potential volatility from Powell's speech is significant, with a hawkish tone possibly driving prices below $3,325 towards $3,310 or even $3,300 [6] - A dovish tone could push prices up to the $3,360 to $3,370 range, while a neutral stance may keep prices within the $3,330 to $3,350 range [6] - Position sizing and risk management are crucial, with recommendations to limit single positions to 1%-2% of the account and to adjust positions before major announcements [6]

Group 1 - China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with automotive retail sales showing a decline [1] - In the US, retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking ten consecutive months of actual retail sales growth, although consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in August [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlighted concerns over inflation, indicating a hawkish stance, with attention on Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1] Group 2 - Copper prices are under pressure due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a decline in copper processing rates and increased imports amid a seasonal demand lull [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply and sluggish domestic consumption, despite recent high price levels [1] - Zinc production exceeded 600,000 tons in July, with continued recovery in August, although there are pressures from increased social inventory [1] Group 3 - Nickel prices are experiencing volatility due to increased domestic inventory and weak demand, with a surplus in primary nickel globally [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with potential support for the non-ferrous sector from anticipated Fed rate cuts in September [1] - Operational strategies suggest short-term trading with a focus on selling high and managing risks [1]

Group 1 - Japan's 30-year government bond yield has reached a historical high of 3.21%, surpassing the previous peak of 3.2% set in July, driven by ongoing inflation concerns and rising fiscal risks [1][3] - The core CPI in Japan rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding market expectations of 3% and significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, which has heightened expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [3] - Following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July, there are concerns about increased government bond issuance due to anticipated new fiscal stimulus measures, leading to a slowdown in foreign investor demand for Japanese government bonds [3] Group 2 - The investment appeal of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds is becoming evident, with some life insurance companies finding current yields attractive, although there is still potential for further yield increases in longer maturities [3] - Market participants are closely watching comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for signals regarding the central bank's policy direction, with a current estimated probability of a rate hike by the end of October at approximately 51% [3][4] - A recent survey indicated that 92% of economists do not expect a rate adjustment at the next policy meeting in mid-September, but 63% anticipate an increase in the basic borrowing cost to at least 0.75% in the next quarter, up from 54% in the previous month [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周五，因持续的通胀压力与不断上升的财政风险继续打击市场情绪，日本30年期国债收益率攀升至历史 新高。其他期限的收益率也同步上扬，日本国债已连续数月遭遇抛售。 日本30年期国债收益率一度升至当日高点3.21%，略微超过7月创下的3.2%历史纪录。20年期日本国债 收益率升至2.66%，续刷1999年以来新高；10年期国债收益率上升1个基点至1.615%，创2008年10月以 来最高水平。 债市出现这一走势出现之际，日本7月核心消费者物价指数高于预期，且远超日本央行2%的目标。与此 同时，因执政联盟在7月参议院选举中失利，市场预期政府将出台新的财政刺激措施，也引发了债券发 行增加的担忧。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，7月剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低 于6月的3.3%，也略高于经济学家预测的3%。分析师原本预计能源价格会因去年高基数效应而拉低整体 水平。 新家义贵则表示："如果单看通胀数据，日本央行随时可以加息，但从逻辑上说，他们应等待明年工资 增长的动能更清晰再行动。因此我认为12月或明年1月更可能，但也确实存在提前到1 ...