·中金：相关资源股行情并未结束 ·分析师：近期科技股抛售并不意味着AI投资热潮结束 ·调查显示英国就业市场初现暖意 ·一项受到英国央行货币政策委员会密切关注的调查显示，尽管雇主在1月继续缩减长期岗位的招聘，但 缩减速度已放缓至18个月以来的最低水平。这份由英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）开展的调查还显示， 企业自去年10月以来首次增加了临时工的派遣量。REC的这份报告进一步证明了英国经济在2026年正迎 来转机。 ·凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，日本拟暂停对食品征收销售税，预计将导致通胀率下降约两 个百分点，甚至可能令整体通胀率进入负值区域。即便今年和明年赤字有所扩大，凭借强劲的名义GDP 增长，公共债务占GDP比率仍将进一步快速下降。 ·法国巴黎银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。 ·据马来亚银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元走 强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元偏向下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of the precious metals market may decline. The US employment and inflation data this week will be the core variables. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, gold and silver may have a chance to make up for lost ground [2]. - In the medium to long term, the actual impact of Wash's election as the Fed Chairman on the interest - rate policy path may be relatively limited. As market sentiment calms down, the precious metals market may return to the pricing framework dominated by macro and fundamentals. If the cooling trend of inflation and employment data continues, the logic of bottom - fishing in the precious metals market still holds [2]. - The support range for London gold is $4,700 - $4,800 per ounce, and the resistance range is $5,200 - $5,300 per ounce. The support range for London silver is $65 - $70 per ounce, and the resistance range is $90 - $95 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1,125.94 yuan per gram, up 35.8 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 20,873 yuan per kilogram, up 2,074 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 158,759 lots, down 5,081 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 9,210 lots, down 38 lots [2]. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 331,307 lots, down 163,435 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,015,255 lots, down 276,289 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 104,052 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 318,546 kilograms, down 31,354 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1,116.02 yuan, up 22.17 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19,595 yuan, up 2,485 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.92 yuan per gram, down 13.65 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 1,278 yuan per gram, up 411 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1,076.23 tons, down 1.72 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 16,191.09 tons, down 56.36 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 165,604 contracts, down 39,792 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 25,877 contracts, up 2,174 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, down 0.35; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88, down 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.76, down 4.01; the CBOE gold volatility index is 33.96, down 1.57 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 66.03, down 0.00; the gold - silver ratio is 4.44, up [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached 57.3, the highest level in six months. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2]. - China's central bank's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months. As of the end of January 2026, the gold reserve scale was 74.19 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 ounces [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that buy goods and services from sanctioned Iran, which took effect on February 7 [2]. - The US announced a temporary trade agreement framework reached with India. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on US industrial products, various foods and agricultural products, and the US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2]. - The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing the dialogue. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that this round of consultations was a "good start" [2]. - Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth is expected to help inflation fall back to the central bank's 2% target [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - February 10, 21:30, US January retail sales data [2]. - February 11, 21:30, US January non - farm payrolls data [2]. - February 13, 21:30, US January CPI data [2].

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with several investment banks predicting a rebound in core inflation due to the "January effect" and tariff cost transmission [1][3] - The consensus forecast for January's core CPI month-over-month growth is around 0.3%, with Bank of America and Citigroup both predicting a 0.3% increase, while UBS has a more aggressive forecast of 0.38% [1][3][5] - The divergence between goods prices and service sector inflation is a focal point, with rising goods prices driven by tariff cost pass-through, while service prices may show seasonal weakness, potentially signaling easing inflationary pressures [1][3][8] Goods Price Trends - The "January effect" and tariff cost pass-through are expected to drive strong performance in goods prices, with Bank of America forecasting a 0.40% month-over-month increase in core goods prices, while Citigroup anticipates a 0.31% rise [3][5] - Specific categories such as furniture (+0.35%), auto parts (+0.75%), and medical goods (+0.8%) are expected to reflect sellers' actions to pass on tariff costs [3][5] - UBS warns of measurement disruptions due to delayed data collection from November, which may impact January's core goods prices and airline ticket prices by approximately 5 basis points [5] Service Sector Inflation - There is significant divergence in expectations for service sector inflation, which will influence the overall CPI data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [8][10] - Citigroup predicts a 0.39% month-over-month increase in core services prices (excluding housing), which is lower than the typical 0.7% seen in January over the past two years [8] - Bank of America expects a slight cooling in service sector inflation compared to December, primarily due to anticipated declines in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Housing Inflation - Consensus among institutions suggests a moderate increase in housing prices, with Citigroup forecasting a 0.23% rise and UBS predicting a 0.26% increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) [10] - Bank of America notes that service sector inflation may cool slightly compared to December, influenced by the previous month's strong increases in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Policy Implications - Different interpretations exist regarding how the upcoming data will affect Federal Reserve policy, with Bank of America suggesting the current inflation environment is "neither too hot nor too cold" [11] - Citigroup maintains that if inflation data remains below expectations during the typically strong seasonal period at the beginning of the year, it could convince hawkish officials that persistent inflation is no longer a primary concern [11]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 美元债双周报（26 年第 6 周） 弱于大市 景气回升难掩财政忧虑，美债曲线陡峭化博弈加剧 美国 1 月 ISM 数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改 善。制造业 PMI 从 47.9 大幅跃升至 52.6，显著高于预期，重返扩张区 间并创近几年新高，新订单与产出强劲反弹是主要拉动因素，显示企业 补库存与需求修复加快。不过，就业指数仍低于荣枯线，制造业用工恢 复偏慢，叠加物价支付指数回升，反映成本压力再度抬头。服务业方面， PMI 维持在 53.8 的阶段性高位，扩张态势稳健，商业活动表现较好，但 新订单增速放缓，就业几乎停滞于荣枯线附近，显示需求与用工修复并 不同步。同时，价格指数走高，提示服务业通胀压力有所回升。整体而 言，美国经济开年景气度改善明确，但就业恢复偏弱、成本压力上行， 结构性特征依然突出。 市场避险情绪升温，但美债需求并不强劲。在上周市场对美联储换帅导致 的流动性冲击以及 AI 对软件的替代影响的担忧而出现抛售时，美债价 格上涨幅度却相当温和，而且收益率曲线显著趋陡，10 年-2 年期限利 差逼近多年高位。这表明尽管市场存在避险情绪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, peaking at $120 before retreating to $64, which has raised market concerns. This pullback is attributed to a historical overbought condition during a strong upward trend [1][8]. Group 1: Macro Factors Driving Silver Prices - Increased demand for safe-haven assets has led to a strong performance in silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. diplomatic frictions, prompting investors to shift from risk assets to safe-haven investments [2]. - The combination of rising volatility, loose monetary policy, and tight supply conditions has provided strong support for price increases in silver [7]. Group 2: COMEX Delivery Pressure - A significant factor affecting silver prices is the increasing risk of physical delivery shortages at the COMEX exchange, with registered reserves dropping to 103 million ounces against open interest of 429 million ounces [3]. - The potential for delivery challenges, particularly in March, May, or July, could lead to substantial price fluctuations due to growing demand and limited supply [3]. Group 3: Technical Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, the technical outlook for silver remains bullish, with strong support observed in the $50 to $60 range, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [11][14]. - Historical patterns suggest that the recent price movements are part of a normal correction, with expectations for a significant price increase in the latter half of 2026 [14]. Group 4: Cross-Market Trends Supporting Silver - The ratio of silver to CPI has broken a 40-year downtrend, indicating a structural shift in silver's relative value against inflation, which could lead to several years of price increases [15][17]. - The silver-gold ratio has shown a strong rebound from long-term support levels, forming a double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential upward trend for silver prices [19][21]. Group 5: Summary of Current Market Conditions - The recent pullback in silver prices from $120 to $64 reflects a market adjustment after extreme overbought conditions, with macroeconomic factors supporting price increases and rising physical delivery pressures [22]. - The breakthrough in silver's value relative to CPI and gold indicates an unprecedented strong performance, confirming a long-term shift in silver's value [22].

其一，沃什是否会坚定降息，还是一个伪装"鸽派"，事实"鹰派"？其二，沃什主张"缩表"，按常理将会 推高长端利率，或与美国财政部的巨额发债需求产生冲突，金融资产的流动性红利是否随之终结？ 沃什展现的观点能否转化为行动力呢？美联储前高级经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡 捷在接受第一财经记者专访时表示，沃什的理念听上去行云流水，但在现实中完全是知易行难。 "他面前起码有两个巨大的难点：一是金融圈的剧烈反弹，二是美国财政部的生存压力。"胡捷解释 道，"沃什提出的理念和方向站得住脚，但具体的执行将是一个巨大的挑战。我认为，这个过程不仅会 是渐进的，而且会是一个极其渐进的过程。" "左手工具"和"右手工具" 伴随凯文·沃什接掌美联储主席的日程临近，有两大叙事中的谜团仍需厘清。 沃什将如何重塑美联储和财政部关系 第一财经：沃什批评美联储过度依赖滞后的经济数据是"通过后视镜开车"，沃什还称要重塑美联储和财 政部关系，达成新的《财政部-美联储协议》，为何如此？ 第一财经：在提名期间沃什展现出"鸽派"立场，但市场认为沃什骨子里是一个"传统鹰派"。沃什获得华 尔街和白宫双重认可，他真实的态度和立场是什么？ 胡捷：如果简 ...

近期英镑兑美元整体呈现窄幅震荡态势，汇率波动核心聚焦于英国央行与美联储的货币政策分化，叠加 英国通胀与经济数据的反复，短期承压迹象明显，中长期走势仍存在不确定性。 英国央行近期的利率决议成为影响英镑走势的关键节点。在本年度首次货币政策会议上，英国央行以微 弱多数决定维持现有基准利率不变，多名委员投票支持降息，这一超出市场预期的内部分歧引发英镑短 线承压下行，后续盘中进一步走低，创下阶段性新低。 与英国央行的偏宽松倾向形成对比，美联储的鹰派政策预期持续为美元提供支撑，进一步压制英镑兑美 元走势。近期美联储多名官员释放鹰派信号，强调在通胀未显著回落前不会支持降息，对通胀的担忧远 超劳动力市场波动。同时，市场对美联储相关人事提名的预期也给予美元正面支撑，被解读为美联储将 维持高利率更长时间的信号。尽管美国近期经济数据呈现分化，但整体仍具一定韧性，未改变市场对美 联储降息节奏放缓的判断。 从近期汇率走势来看，英镑兑美元呈现震荡偏弱的整体格局。回顾近期走势，英镑兑美元曾一度冲高至 阶段性高点，但随后受英国央行降息预期升温、美联储鹰派表态等因素影响，逐步进入回调通道。技术 面来看，短期均线呈下行排列，空头占据一定优势，尚 ...

一边是特朗普的政治压力，一边是经济学家的专业质疑，凯文·沃什还未上任，就已陷入了一场关于 AI、通胀与货币政策的激烈论战…… 根据《金融时报》的一项即时经济学家调查，顶尖学者驳斥了凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）关于人工智能 （AI）引发的生产力繁荣将为降息创造空间的说法，这突显了特朗普挑选的美联储主席人选所面临的 挑战。 特朗普在一月底提名沃什接替鲍威尔。沃什认为，AI将引发"我们过去、现在和未来所未见过的最强生 产力提升浪潮"。他表示，这将扩大产出，并为美联储在不引发物价上涨的情况下，将美国借贷成本从 当前的3.5%-3.75%水平降下来铺平道路。 芝加哥大学克拉克全球市场中心（Clark Center for Global Markets）本周调查了45位经济学家，近60%的 人表示，未来两年该技术对物价和借贷成本的影响可能微乎其微，预计未来两年PCE通胀和中性利率的 下降幅度将不到0.2个百分点。 "我不认为AI繁荣是一种抑制通胀的冲击，"约翰霍普金斯大学经济学家、前美联储官员Jonathan Wright 表示，"但我认为在短期内，它也不会引发严重的通胀。" 约三分之一的受访者表示，AI繁荣甚至 ...

近期美元指数呈现震荡走势，2月5日上涨0.21%，在汇市尾盘收于97.824；2月6日下跌0.2%，收于 97.633。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 美联储官员近期释放的谨慎政策立场，推动美元指数维持高位震荡态势。 里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的 稳定。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，他对美国经济前景"谨慎乐观"，暗示强劲的生产率增长有望帮助通胀 回落至央行2%的目标水平；当前的政策立场能够很好地应对经济发展。理事库克则指出，美联储必须 在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要；目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景 不确定性仍处于较高水平。 据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储到3月维持利率不变的概率为80.1%，到4月维持利率不变的概率为 65.2%。 ...

摘要 第一，回顾2025年，全球宏观面有五大特征：一是实际增长率大致稳定，IMF预计2025年全球经济增速为3.2%，和2024年区别不大，关税冲击被进口抢跑 和AI投资部分对冲，是韧性的主要来源；二是不同经济体分化，美国实际增速有所下滑，欧日小幅反弹，新兴市场维持韧性增速；三是通胀和货币政策 分化，但宽松为主，欧元区上半年降息、美国下半年降息、日本加息、新兴市场多数降息；四是关税带来扰动，上半年贸易环境急剧变化带来一定微观抢 跑效应；下半年则随着贸易环境缓和而趋于正常化；五是AI产业链预期升温，带来主要经济体资本开支和全球贸易的增量，以及有色金属需求的强预 期。 第二，从上述特征来理解全球资产定价：一是增长环境的平稳和主要经济体财政货币政策宽松带来了风险资产机会，大宗商品、股票均有较高收益；二是 美国降息带来美元资产利差下降，关税带来信用风险溢价上升，双逻辑下的美元走弱成为大类资产定价的关键助推因素；三是新兴市场有着相对韧性的增 长，叠加资金流出美元资产后的再配置效应，相对收益明显；四是AI的产业基本面、全球产业链重塑预期，叠加有利的流动性环境，形成强叙事特征， 并向有色金属等领域传递。这是一个比较"顺"的 ...