图 过去一周，贵金属价格剧烈波动，获利回吐和过热仓位交织导致价格从历史高位回落。美联储领导层可 能更迭，引发美国货币政策不确定性，也加剧了市场波动。 然而，支撑多年上涨行情的诸多因素—— 地缘政治风险加剧、央行加大购入力度以及投资者抛售主权债券和货币——依然存在。 ATFX：在经历了上周的历史性暴跌之后，金价连续两天上涨，周一，受美元走软至一周低位的提振， 金价上涨2%，不过今早的涨势暂缓，因为投资者在震荡的市场中获利了结，等待美国关键就业报告。 今日金价早盘一度下跌1.4%，短暂跌破每盎司5000美元，随后收复部分失地。自1月29日创下历史新高 以来，金价已下跌约10%，但今年以来仍保持较高水平。 3. 主权信用与货币价值的深层忧虑：全球范围内高企的政府债务水平，以及对主要储备货币长期购买力 的担忧，驱使全球投资者将黄金视为重要的价值储存工具和对冲资产。 本周投资者密切关注美国非农就业数据、消费者价格和首次申请失业救济人数的公布，以寻找货币政策 的新信号。市场已经预期2026年至少会降息两次，每次降息25个基点。 包括德意志银行和高盛集团在内的许多银行和资产管理公司都看好黄金价格，认为其将因这些长期需求 驱 ...

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical risk easing and profit-taking have led to a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, but this adjustment is viewed as a technical correction within an overall upward trend, not altering the medium-term bullish outlook for gold [1][3] - The recent rapid decline in gold prices was primarily driven by profit-taking and a reduction in geopolitical premiums due to the resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks, resulting in a temporary liquidity gap [3] - Central bank gold purchases have been a solid foundation for gold's price increase, with global central banks net buying over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand and a supportive supply-demand dynamic [5] Group 2 - The market is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower rates twice in 2026, which supports the relative value of zero-yield assets like gold [4] - The ongoing process of de-dollarization and uncertainty in the credit system are expected to sustain gold's long-term premium, as geopolitical tensions and changes in the global monetary system enhance gold's status as a sovereign asset [5] - Technically, gold's weekly divergence has been corrected, indicating a continued upward trend, with key support at $4,630 and resistance at $5,010 [5]

2 2019 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 用值 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | 2026/2/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/9 | 5027. 67 | 81.98 | 5050. 40 | 81. 57 | 1128. 78 | 20175.00 | 1123.00 | 19750.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

Group 1 - A significant amount of gold is being transported from Western vaults in London and New York to China, indicating a silent "trust vote" by multiple central banks in 2025 [1] - The freezing of $300 billion in Russian foreign reserves by the West has led to a loss of trust in the dollar system, prompting countries to diversify their gold reserves to mitigate geopolitical risks [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has expanded its operations, and countries like Iran and Venezuela are exploring "gold for currency" pathways as they are marginalized by the dollar [3] Group 2 - The precious metals market experienced a sharp decline in early 2025, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raising margin requirements, leading to liquidity issues [5] - The rise in gold prices reflects a global capital vote of no confidence in the dollar, while the U.S. simultaneously criticizes Chinese financial behavior while seeking cooperation on rare earth supplies [5] - Countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil are taking real actions towards de-dollarization by increasing the use of the yuan in oil transactions and establishing currency clearing mechanisms [5] Group 3 - The West still controls financial pricing mechanisms but is struggling to suppress the market's demand for physical gold, as the number of futures contracts far exceeds physical reserves [7] - The actions of the Chinese central bank in increasing gold reserves and the expansion of Hong Kong's gold storage are shifting pricing power from digital to physical assets [7] - This situation highlights a fundamental conflict between financial virtualization and the need for tangible security [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in international gold prices, which fell sharply after nearing a historical high of $5,600, resulting in the evaporation of trillions of dollars in market value within hours [1][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant blamed China for the market turmoil, claiming that disorderly trading by Chinese investors disrupted the global precious metals market [8][10] - The article suggests that the extreme volatility in gold and silver prices is not merely a market reaction but rather a politically motivated intervention by the U.S. to maintain dollar hegemony [10][12] Group 2 - Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with China's central bank increasing its reserves to over 2,300 tons [14][34] - The article highlights a broader trend of countries repatriating gold reserves, with nations like Germany and Poland also participating in this "gold repatriation movement" [25] - The narrative emphasizes that the U.S. is losing its absolute pricing power over gold, as evidenced by the need for administrative measures to stabilize the market [12][36] Group 3 - The article posits that the current financial landscape is characterized by a separation of pricing power and ownership, where the prices set by Wall Street are increasingly disconnected from the physical assets held by global central banks [36][41] - It argues that the ongoing volatility in gold prices serves as a warning signal about the weakening of the once-mythologized dollar system, indicating a shift towards a new financial order based on tangible assets [39][43] - The conclusion suggests that the rise in gold prices reflects a growing distrust in the dollar's credibility, with a new financial order centered around physical assets rapidly taking shape [43]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight drop followed by a rebound, with COMEX gold futures trading around $5,056 [1] - The performance of gold-related ETFs showed declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF down 0.25%, the Nonferrous Metals ETF down 0.51%, and the Gold Stocks ETF down 1.23% [1] - Concerns over global debt and monetary policy are expected to benefit gold, as the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [1] Group 2 - A weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are identified as direct drivers for the rebound in gold prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have shifted gold's safe-haven demand from a temporary impulse to a more sustained support [2] - The technical level of $5,000 has become a focal point for market dynamics, with long-term bullish sentiment on gold remaining intact despite potential short-term volatility [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with silver losing half its value and gold futures dropping over 10% in a matter of hours, leading to massive losses for investors [3][5][10] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, increasing the gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which drained market liquidity [7][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary pointed fingers at Chinese traders for the volatility, claiming their speculative actions disrupted global order, reflecting a narrative anxiety in the U.S. regarding its financial dominance [12][15][21] Group 2 - The article highlights that U.S. control over gold pricing is diminishing, as evidenced by the need for high-profile political interventions to stabilize market sentiment [17][19] - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a total surpassing 2300 tons, indicating a shift towards physical assets as a hedge against financial instability [23][26] - The U.S. is facing challenges in its manufacturing sector due to reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, which are critical for high-end manufacturing, showcasing the interconnectedness of financial and industrial strategies [34][36] Group 3 - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is attempting to maintain its financial hegemony through rule modifications, while China is focusing on accumulating physical resources, indicating a potential shift in global economic power dynamics [28][40][41] - The article posits that the future will not only be about currency competition but also about the battle for physical resources, with gold and rare earths emerging as new hard currencies [43]

转自：新华财经 宝城期货表示，美元走弱和对美联储降息的预期回暖是推动金价反弹的直接动力。市场认为，无论谁执 掌美联储，美国维持相对宽松货币环境的长期倾向可能难以根本扭转，这为金价提供了深层支撑。地缘 政治方面，美伊会谈降低了突发军事冲突的风险，但仍维持了紧张局势，这使得黄金的避险需求从脉冲 式驱动转变为更持久的支撑。中长期看涨黄金的逻辑（如全球央行购金、去美元化）并未改变，但短期 市场可能仍处于高波动盘整期，5000美元成为黄金新的多空博弈焦点。临近春节假期，国内提保叠加海 外波动，节前资金驱动或减弱。 东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨表现偏强，得益于美元指数的大幅走弱。市场关注伊朗局势进展，仍然存 在一定避险情绪，美国1月非农就业报告也即将公布，目前市场对3月降息预期约为20%，后续经济数据 关注度增加，短期货币政策缺乏增量利多。国内春节假期将至，资金节前减仓，预计贵金属整体走势震 荡。 银河期货表示，近日市场情绪回暖，美股现V字反弹，美元走弱，金银价格相应从此前的悲观情绪中逐 步恢复并反弹。另外，中国央行再度增加黄金储备，美国财长贝森特称此前金价的下跌主要由投机性抛 售驱动，以及市场传言国内商业银行可能减少对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments blaming Chinese traders for the volatility in the global gold market highlight a deeper issue: the U.S. has lost control over gold pricing, while China's significant gold reserves have become a key factor in this shift [1][3][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The global gold price recently experienced extreme fluctuations, with a drop from $5,600, marking the largest decline in nearly a decade, leaving analysts bewildered [3]. - The U.S. has historically dominated gold pricing, but recent events indicate a shift in power towards China, which has been steadily accumulating gold reserves [1][5][12]. Group 2: China's Gold Accumulation - As of January 2026, China's gold reserves reached 2,307.57 tons, equivalent to 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces in January alone [5][6]. - Unlike other countries that may only account for gold purchases, China has physically transported its gold back to the country, ensuring tangible assets are held domestically [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's strategy involves not just accumulating gold but also establishing a global gold storage and delivery network, aiming to create a new pricing benchmark in Shanghai and challenge Western dominance in gold pricing [7][10]. - The growing trend of countries accumulating gold reflects a loss of trust in the U.S. dollar, as nations seek to secure their financial stability against potential U.S. economic instability [9][12]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - The global central banks' gold holdings have surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years, indicating a shift in confidence from the dollar to gold as a stable asset [12]. - The U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has been declining, reaching a low of 56.92% in Q3 2025, suggesting a growing trend of de-dollarization among nations [9][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the U.S. dollar remains a major global currency, its credibility and pricing power are diminishing, with the trend of countries seeking alternatives to the dollar becoming increasingly evident [13][14]. - China's gold reserves serve as a dual insurance policy for financial security and a means to enhance its bargaining power in international markets [11][16].