在全球去美元化趋势不断深化的背景下，黄金的战略地位持续上升。自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，美 元"武器化"促使各国加快减少对单一货币依赖的步伐，黄金由此进入重新定价阶段。此后三年，金价单 边上行，接连突破3000、4000美元整数关口，屡创历史新高。 目前，美元信用弱化周期仍在延续，全球央行增持黄金的需求依旧强劲，加之地缘政治紧张局势持续、 美债规模不断扩大，黄金的货币与避险属性共同支撑价格中枢稳步上移。分析认为，在多重结构性利好 推动下，黄金期货的长期上涨趋势难以根本改变。 从市场节奏看，2025年四季度金价波动较过去三年明显收窄，显示高位市场趋于理性。尽管多数机构对 2026年金价目标仍持乐观态度，甚至有预期指向5000美元，但从当前价格中枢测算，潜在涨幅已有所缩 小。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，COMEX 黄金期货最新报价 4424.80美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌42.30 美元，跌幅 0.94%，成功站稳 4400美元 / 盎司关口。当日开盘价 4467.10美元 / 盎司，最高价 4475.20美 元 / 盎司，最低价 4423.60美元 / 盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要 ...

如果你还以为美国国债是"绝对安全"的铁饭碗，那2025这一出金融大戏，真是让人大跌眼镜。 美国国债总额冲到38.5万亿美元，债务危机像脱缰的野马，全球市场一片狼藉。 各国央行、机构投资者纷纷抛售美债，黄金价格飞奔到4500美元，白银也跟着水涨船高。 美债信用体系接近崩溃，美元国际地位前所未有地被撼动。 中国抓住时机，果断减持美债，疯狂买入黄金，成了这场金融风暴中的最大赢家。 和2008年救市手法对比鲜明，历史虽不会重演，却总带着熟悉的味道。 我的看法是，美元信用危机并非突如其来，而是金融危机后埋下的必然结果。 2011年欧债危机时，欧洲央行就曾果断抛售美债，转而增持黄金。 美国一边苦撑财政，一边利息开支超军费，债务雪球越滚越大。 日本、欧洲、加拿大、印度这些"老盟友"也各怀鬼胎，全球资金一窝蜂流入黄金避险，美元霸权摇摇欲坠。 这一切的根源，其实就是全球对美元信用的彻底失望，黄金成了最后的"救命稻草"。 回头看2008年金融危机，美国靠大放水、量化宽松一度稳住阵脚，表面风平浪静，实则把债务炸弹踢给了未来。 那几年，全球资本像打了鸡血，狂买美债和美元资产。 但美国经济复苏乏力，债务高筑，信心逐年流失。 2025年 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Mongolia has signed a currency swap agreement with China, which allows it to reduce its dependence on the US dollar and embrace the Chinese yuan, amidst the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][4][5] - The currency swap agreement, signed in mid-August, marks a new phase in economic cooperation between China and Mongolia, enabling direct trade and investment settlements in yuan, thus improving trade efficiency and reducing transaction costs [4][5] - Mongolia's decision to abandon the dollar is influenced by its economic reliance on China and the increasing burden of debt due to US interest rate hikes, which have made dollar transactions inefficient and risky [4][5] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming more pronounced globally, with many countries opting for local currencies or currency alliances, challenging the dollar's hegemonic status [7][9] - Mongolia's historical context and its strategic position between East and West allow it to adopt a rational foreign policy, seeking to maximize its benefits from both China and the US [11][14] - The recent agreements with the US, including an open skies agreement and a rare earth supply agreement, reflect Mongolia's strategy to balance its relationships while ensuring its own interests are prioritized [14][16] Group 3 - The frequent interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve are causing significant global economic turmoil, with rising inflation and declining consumer confidence in the US, which may lead to a recession [17] - Emerging markets are particularly affected by the Fed's policies, experiencing currency depreciation and economic challenges, which could exacerbate global economic instability [17] - The article suggests that the Fed's actions could have a cascading effect on the global economy, urging for responsible policy coordination among nations to mitigate negative impacts [17]

全球央行政策分化与去美元化形成博弈。日央行加息、欧央行慎降息，缩小美元利差优势；2025年金价 暴涨超70%反映美元信用担忧，但美元储备结算地位暂难替代，避险属性仍存。 技术面要点 美元指数突破短期阻力，站上多条短期均线。支撑位98.455、98.230；阻力位98.660、99.381。RSI逼近 超买，需警惕回调风险。 短期维持趋势性博弈，全年或偏弱但有阶段性反弹。重点关注美联储政策、非农及PCE数据、地缘风险 与关税案。机构预测2026年或跌3%，经济韧性与政策不确定性可能引发反弹。 1月8日，美元指数走强，纽约收盘涨0.5%至109.090。主要汇率表现：欧元兑美元1.0309、英镑兑美元 1.2357(均下跌)；美元兑日元158.46、瑞郎0.9117、加元1.4389(均上涨)。核心驱动为美联储政策分歧、 美经济数据分化及全球央行政策差异。 美联储政策分歧主导美元波动。2025年三次降息后，2026年官员及机构分歧达十年峰值：部分主张降息 超100基点，部分建议暂停降息甚至加息；鲍威尔任期将结束，接任者政策倾向不明，加剧市场迷茫。 美经济数据好坏交织：1月CPI反弹至3.0%支撑美元，但零售销售跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short-term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advisable to wait and see [1][8][10] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Copper, hold long positions cautiously; aluminum, strengthen observation; nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; tin, range trading; gold, range trading; silver, range trading; lithium carbonate, range-bound [1][11][15][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, range trading; caustic soda, wait and see temporarily; soda ash, wait and see temporarily; styrene, range trading; rubber, range trading; urea, range trading; methanol, range trading; polyolefins, weak and volatile [1][19][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, expected to be slightly bullish; apples, slightly bullish; jujubes, expected to rebound from the bottom [1][27][29][30] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs, short on rallies for near-term contracts, cautiously bullish for far-term contracts; eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the current 02 contract; corn, short-term cautious about chasing highs, grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal, treat near-term contracts strongly on dips, far-term contracts weakly; oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, cautious about chasing rallies [1][31][34][36][38][39] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][11] - For most varieties, short-term market fluctuations are relatively large, and medium- to long-term trends need to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and policy orientation [11][15][32] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips. Affected by geopolitical events and economic data at home and abroad, there are potential callback risks in the short term, but the market is expected to develop further in the long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. The current low static yield of bonds and high - intensity long - term bond supply make it difficult for institutions to significantly increase their bond allocations [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short-term trading. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support, with clear short - selling logic and some bullish factors [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Driven by cost and affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Wait and see. The supply side has positive expectations, but the demand side is weak. There are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash, and the price is expected to be short - term bullish [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price has entered a high - volatility stage in the short term, but there is still upward space in the long term due to supply shortages [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is driven by expectations and capital, but there is great fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is limited [13] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, but there is a short - term rebound [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [15] - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy, the medium - term price center moves up [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The supply and demand are weak in reality, but the valuation is low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see temporarily. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [21] - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see temporarily. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the disk is limited [27] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term, and pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, but the downstream buying is weak, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is bullish due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weak and volatile. The demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited, but there is a short - term rebound expectation [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Slightly bullish. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply and demand and policy expectations, the price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish [29] - **Apples**: Slightly bullish. The market price is relatively stable, and different regions have different trading situations [29] - **Jujubes**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere varies in different regions [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the long - term supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is not optimistic before the Spring Festival [32] - **Eggs**: Range trading. The short - term price has a seasonal increase expectation, but the supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [34][35] - **Corn**: Weak and volatile. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The short - term domestic and foreign market conditions are complex, and different strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [38][39] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. The short - term trends of the three major oils are expected to diverge, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing rallies for soybean and palm oils, and gradually liquidate long positions for rapeseed oil [39][44][45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's gold reserves have increased for the 14th consecutive month, reaching 7,415 million ounces (approximately 2,306.323 tons) as of the end of December, with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 0.73%, with significant increases in individual stocks such as WanGuo Gold Group (03939) up 4.20% and ZhaoJin Mining (01818) up 2.97% [1] - An analysis by Anliang Futures indicates a paradigm shift in the gold market driven by global macroeconomic changes, highlighting the importance of sovereign credit risk premium, diversification of reserve assets, and improvements in microstructure as key support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 63.58% of the total index weight, with companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) being the largest contributors [2]

美元指数2025年的下跌是一次具有标志性意义的信心折价，宣告了由利差和美国独好叙事驱动的超强周期落幕，标志着由信用基础重估和全球货币格局演变 主导的新阶段开启。对于2026年，与其预测一个精确的点位，不如把握美元指数"高波动、中期承压"的核心特征。市场焦点或从单纯的经济数据，转向对美 国政策理性与制度韧性的审视。这一转变的影响将是全局性的，不仅关乎换汇成本，更将深刻扰动全球资本的流向、重塑资产的比较价值。对企业、投资者 和政策制定者而言，理解美元从"特权货币"向"常态货币"的回归过程至关重要。 图为2025年美元指数走势 [历史规律与2025年的例外] 回望历史，美元指数的每一次大周期转向，基本上都是围绕经济基本面展开：或是美国经济陷入滞胀，或是美国经济增长动能落后于其他国家，最终通过汇 率的升降完成修正，政策干预不过是为经济趋势推了一把力。但2025年的"剧本"不同于以往，不再是经济基本面主导的"独角戏"，而是"美国经济周期下 行"与"特朗普非传统政策冲击"共同谱写的"协奏曲"。前者为美元贬值提供了土壤，经济增速放缓、财政赤字高企、美联储降息导致利差优势瓦解；后者充 当了那根打破平静、彻底扭转市场预期的关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for five consecutive months, with a significant increase of over $155.5 billion by the end of December 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3357.9 billion, reflecting an increase of $11.5 billion from the end of November, representing a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - The rise in foreign reserves is attributed to the impact of major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and fluctuations in global financial asset prices [2]. - The increase in reserves is also supported by a trade surplus that has surpassed $1 trillion, indicating a solid fundamental backing for the stability of foreign reserves [3]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - By the end of December 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 7.415 million ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of increase, although the increment has been relatively low in recent months [4]. - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves amid rising geopolitical tensions and a trend towards "de-dollarization" [4]. - The proportion of gold reserves in China's official international reserves is approximately 9.5%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%, indicating room for further increases in gold holdings [4].

值得注意的是，央行在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高过程中持续小幅增持黄金，释放了优化国 际储备的信号。 中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 2026年1月7日，国家外汇管理局统计公布数据显示，截至2025年12月末，黄金储备为7415万盎司，较上 月末增加3万盎司。 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，2025年12月末官方黄金储备连续第十四个月增加，但增量连续第十个 月处于低位，未来央行增持黄金仍是大方向。 小幅增持 伴随美联储持续降息，全球地缘政治风险居高不下，近期国际金价延续快速上涨势头，2025年12月央行 增持黄金规模继续处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期央行继续增持黄金，主要原因是美国新政府上台后，全球政 治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。这意味着从控制成本角度出 发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备结构角度增持黄金的必要性上升。 王青表示，截至2025年11月末，在主要由外汇储备和黄金储备构成的官方国际储备中，黄金储备的占比 约为9.5%，明显低于15%左右的全球平均水平。从优化国际储备结构角度出发，未来需要持续增持黄 ...

究其原因，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对上海证券报记者表示，这主要反映了在主要经济体货币政 策及预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响下，汇率折算和资产价格变化带来的正估值效应。 COMEX黄金日K线图 张大伟 制图 ◎记者 范子萌 国家外汇管理局1月7日发布数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，较11月 末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。至此，我国外储规模已连续5个月站稳3.3万亿美元上方，并续创2015 年12月以来新高。 与此同时，我国央行持续增持黄金。截至2025年12月末，我国央行黄金储备报7415万盎司，环比增加3 万盎司，为连续第14个月增持。 外储规模连续5个月上升 2025年12月，我国外汇储备规模延续升势，实现连续第5个月增长。 2025年12月，中国人民银行增持黄金3万盎司，全年累计增持86万盎司。当月，国际金价表现强劲，伦 敦现货黄金价格一度突破4400美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，为连续第7个月收涨。 业内专家认为，在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高的过程中，我国央行持续小幅增持黄金，释放 了优化国际储备的信号。未来，我国央行增持黄金仍有较大空间。 美元指数的 ...