Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

2025年09月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格继续走高，纽约金突破 3800 美元/盎司，市场资金继续做多。 | | 金 | 基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔公开讲话称美股估值相当高，重申面临通胀上升与就业下滑的双重挑战，未明确 | | 属 | 表态 10 月是否降息；美联储官员对于降息依旧存在分歧，联储执委鲍曼警告已"落后于形势"，地区联储主 | | | 席古尔斯比呼吁谨慎行事；美国 9 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 52，连续第二个月扩张，预期 52.2，8 月前值 | | | 53，去年同期为 47.3。其中，就业指数从 8 月的 53.1 降至 52.6；新订单指数环比下降。美国 9 月 Markit 服 | | | 务业 PMI 初值 53.9，为 2025 年 6 月以来的最低值，预期 54，8 月前值 54.5，去年同期为 55.2。其中，就业 | | | 指数从 8 月份的 52 降至 51.6，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为 2025 年 4 月以来的 | ...

本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源，请知悉。 前言 中美"关税摩擦"刚进入平静期，美企就发现不对劲了。 国债数据公布，中国四个月中国连抛3820亿，持有规模达到新低。 与此同时，巴菲特也全盘抛售比亚迪股票，中美贸易市场真可谓是山雨欲来。 9月中旬美国财政部按例该公布7月份美债流动数据了，其实在这次数据公布之前，美金融界对此还是非 常乐观的。 因为从3月份到5月份，中国对持有的美债"三连抛"，明显受到贸易战的影响。 到中美谈判之后的6月份，中国持有美债罕见出现增持。 虽然只有1亿美元，但已经给美国财政分析人士看到了"回暖"的趋势。 甚至在特朗普对中国征收145%关税的4月份，中方都只减持了82亿美元。 在这波减持之后，中国今年4个月已经累计减持573亿美元的美债，合人民币3820元，手中持有的美债已 经创下了新低。 对比来看，其他两大债主英国和和日本都选择增持，更能看出中国的动作"不一般"。 这个时候中国为什么"动真格"，采取如此大的抛售力度？ 首先看全球大趋势，以及抛开"政治原因"买美债的国家，全球国家在7月份仍然在加速"去美元化"的趋 势，争相购买黄金囤货和规避风险。 因为特朗普 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound after a dip, with the ChiNext index rising by 0.21% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.29% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.49 trillion, an increase of 372.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI and Computing Power Sector - The computing hardware sector remains buoyant due to AI, with a commercial closed loop beginning to form [3] - Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership involving an investment of up to $100 billion to build a 10GW data center, which is expected to increase demand for Nvidia's chips at a ratio of 1:3.5 [3] - Major cloud service providers like Google Cloud and Amazon AWS reported significant revenue growth, with Google Cloud's revenue at $13.6 billion (up 32% year-on-year) and AWS at $30.9 billion (up 17.5% year-on-year) [3] Domestic Chip Industry - Domestic computing power penetration is expected to rise rapidly due to overseas sanctions and national security considerations, with current penetration estimated at 20-30% and projected to reach over 50% in the coming years [5] - Huawei plans to launch several new chips between Q1 2026 and Q4 2028, indicating ongoing advancements in domestic chip technology [5] Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to rise, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risks [6][11] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to increased expectations for future cuts, which may influence gold prices [8] - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing gold reserves, with China having added gold for ten consecutive months [11] Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for large enterprises in the U.S. fell by 0.5% in August, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [10] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Gaza region, which could further support gold prices [11]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations on September 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index narrowed its decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.18% at 3821.83, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29% to 13119.82 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed resilience, with notable gains from Nanjing Bank (up nearly 5%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank (both up over 3%) [3] - The semiconductor sector led the market, with stocks like Changchuan Technology hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Demingli and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech also seeing significant gains [4] - The port and shipping sectors experienced a rebound, while tourism, Huawei-related stocks, and small metal sectors faced declines [2] Gold Market Insights - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs, with COMEX gold nearing the 3800 USD mark and London gold surpassing 3750 USD [8] - Domestic gold jewelry prices increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook raising their prices from 1085 yuan/gram to 1098 yuan/gram [8] - Analysts from Shanghai Securities noted that the long-term logic for gold's price increase remains intact, driven by factors such as de-dollarization and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Strategic Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation, the overall market may experience high-level fluctuations, with a focus on structural opportunities despite potential volatility due to rotation [7] - The investment strategy suggested is to "lose time in the short term but not space in the long term," indicating a preference for long-term positions in less crowded sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached historical highs, indicating a shift in its market status from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "credit hedge tool" [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In September 2025, spot gold in London surpassed $3,786 per ounce, while New York gold futures climbed to $3,818 per ounce, marking a significant milestone [2] - The total market capitalization of the gold sector reached 5.02 trillion yuan, with a single-day trading volume exceeding 6.4 million contracts on September 23 [2] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold in 2025, with emerging markets like China and India increasing their holdings [2] Group 2: Price Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2025 has directly catalyzed the rise in gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with historical data showing a 2.3% increase in gold prices for every 10-point rise in the geopolitical risk index [4] - The deterioration of the U.S. debt situation and the weaponization of the dollar have undermined global trust in the dollar, activating gold's "credit substitute" property and leading to structural buying from central banks [5] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Short-term forecasts suggest gold prices may reach $4,000 within 1-2 years, supported by central bank purchases even if the Fed delays further rate cuts [6] - In the medium term (3-5 years), if a BRICS currency system materializes and U.S. dollar dominance weakens, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 [6] - Long-term trends indicate that the current upward momentum, which began in 2018, may continue for an extended period, with extreme scenarios suggesting gold prices could challenge even higher targets in the event of a global debt crisis [6]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching a historical high with COMEX gold surpassing $3800, peaking at $3809.2 per ounce, marking a monthly increase of approximately 8% [1] - London gold also broke the $3780 mark, hitting a high of $3780.569 per ounce, with a monthly increase of about 9% [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been adjusted upwards, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price rising from 1085 yuan per gram to 1098 yuan per gram, an increase of 13 yuan overnight [1] - Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price increased from 1090 yuan per gram to 1100 yuan per gram, a rise of 10 yuan overnight [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in 2025 [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic stating there is little reason for additional cuts, expecting only one cut in 2025 [3] Group 4: Market Expectations and Risk Management - Short-term market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for gold due to ongoing central bank purchases and global monetary expansion [4] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver contracts ahead of the National Day holiday to manage market risks [4][5]

Group 1: Resource Competition - The competition between China and the U.S. over resources, particularly rare earth elements, is intensifying, with China controlling over 90% of global supply [1] - In July, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest in 16 years, showcasing its strategic positioning in resource negotiations [1] Group 2: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China has established a comprehensive rare earth industry since the 1990s, leveraging rich deposits in Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi, leading to a global production and technology leadership [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense acknowledges that without Chinese rare earths, the production line for the F-35 fighter jet could face shutdown [3] Group 3: Impact on Technology and Industry - In 2023, China implemented export controls on critical minerals like gallium and germanium, directly impacting the U.S. semiconductor industry, with China controlling 69% of global rare earth production and nearly half of its reserves [5] - European companies, such as a major German automotive parts manufacturer, have also suffered significant losses due to rare earth supply disruptions [5] Group 4: U.S. Legislative Response - The U.S. Congress is actively seeking ways to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, with estimates suggesting that rebuilding a complete supply chain would require at least $300 billion and a decade of time [7] - The proposed aviation sanctions by U.S. lawmakers could backfire, potentially leading to significant losses for Boeing and an increase in international rare earth prices by 20% [8] Group 5: Historical Context and Future Implications - The current situation mirrors past trade conflicts, such as the 2018 soybean tariffs, where China successfully shifted its market focus, leading to losses for U.S. farmers [9] - China's ongoing strategy to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase gold reserves indicates a long-term vision for economic and technological independence [9] - The outcome of this resource competition could reshape the global technology industry landscape [10]

2025年初买的黄金，赚疯了！ 2025年无疑是黄金的大年，仅在前三个季度，国际黄金就已上演一场"史诗级"行情。根据Wind数据统计，伦敦现货黄金价格从2024年最后一个交易日的 2624.16美元/盎司，一路飙升至2025年9月16日盘中3702.93美元/盎司，涨幅超过40%。 如果有人在年初布局黄金并坚定持有，那轻松跑赢一些基金和理财产品则不成问题。 数据来源：Wind、统计截至：2025/9/17 这一轮黄金的强势上涨，可谓占尽"天时、地利、人和"。 年初特朗普就任美国总统后，市场对其政策不确定性的担忧迅速发酵，伦敦现货金价在1月突破2800美元/盎司、2月站上2900美元/盎司关口。随后，美国 债务问题与地缘政治风险轮番助推，黄金作为传统避险资产持续受到资金青睐。 然而，真正点燃金价行情的，是特朗普挑起的全球关税摩擦。进入4月，市场对贸易冲突的担忧达到高峰，国际金价单月实现"三级跳"，连续突破3300美 元/盎司、3400美元/盎司和3500美元/盎司三大整数关口，强势尽显。 随后的四个月，尽管中东地缘冲突等事件不时扰动，但由于前期涨势过大，金价进入高位震荡整固阶段。 图片来源：利得研究院 "靴子" ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations on September 23, with the index rising towards the end of the trading session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.21%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 376 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Gold Market - International gold prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs. COMEX gold approached the 3800 USD mark, peaking at 3795.1 USD per ounce, while London gold surpassed 3750 USD, hitting a maximum of 3759.1 USD per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with the price of 24K gold jewelry rising from 1085 yuan per gram to 1098 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook and from 1090 yuan to 1100 yuan for Chow Sang Sang [2][8]. Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience, with several banks experiencing significant gains. Nanjing Bank rose nearly 5%, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Xiamen Bank increased by over 3%. Other banks such as Suzhou Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Qilu Bank also saw upward movement [4]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector led the market gains, with notable performances from companies like Changchuan Technology, which hit the daily limit, and Demingli, which achieved three consecutive trading limit increases. Other companies such as Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Kaimete Gas also reached their daily limits towards the end of the trading session [5]. Automotive Sector - Dongfeng Motor and Dongfeng Technology experienced significant stock price increases, with Dongfeng Motor rising by 4.37% and Dongfeng Technology by 3.69%. This surge followed a meeting between Dongfeng's chairman and Huawei's founders, focusing on strengthening strategic cooperation and innovation in corporate governance [6]. Investment Strategy Insights - The market analysis indicates that e-commerce is currently crowded, while the internet sector remains relatively low. Innovative pharmaceuticals have seen a decline but are not at a low point. New consumption is hovering at a relatively low level, while banking and insurance sectors are at their lowest in a year. The suggested investment strategy is to focus on long-term potential while being cautious of high crowding in certain sectors [7]. Precious Metals Outlook - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact due to factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases. Short-term market dynamics, including adjustments in non-farm payroll data and interest rate expectations, are expected to support gold price increases. Silver is also gaining attention as it transitions from an industrial role to a valuable asset, driven by both industrial demand and financial attributes [10][11].