1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,287 yuan/ton. Supply: PE output increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 661,100 tons. Demand: The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory: Producer inventory rose 19.09% to 515,400 tons, social inventory fell 1.22% to 568,700 tons, and total inventory pressure is not significant. Domestic PE's next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start in mid - August. Due to the leap June, domestic greenhouse film demand is delayed, extending the downstream off - season. Food and daily chemical packaging film orders are accumulating sporadically, mainly for rigid demand. Cost: OPEC+ production increase impact continues, IEA predicts intensified oil supply - demand imbalance, and the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders makes international oil prices fluctuate weakly. For L2509, pay attention to the support around 7,200 yuan/ton; for L2601, focus on the support around 7,300 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton. The main contract is about to switch to L2601 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,343 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume was 187,511 lots, and the open interest was 303,896 lots, an increase of 91,334 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 56. The buy orders of the top 20 futures positions were 322,688 lots, a decrease of 3,077 lots; the sell orders were 339,408 lots, and the net buy orders were - 16,720 lots, a decrease of 1,438 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,313.04 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7,398.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.24 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis was 26.87, with a change of 0.04 [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.31 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia was 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 84.08% [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 49.3%, that of pipes was 29%, and that of agricultural film was 13.07% [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 11.89%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 14.8%, an increase of 0.19% [2] 3.8 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period. From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 515,400 tons, an increase of 19.09% from the previous period; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions and a reverse spread in the monthly spread. The short - term PXN has support, and it is necessary to pay attention to the repair of terminal orders starting from late August [8]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts and conduct a positive spread in the 9 - 1 monthly spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high inventory of grey fabrics makes it difficult to form an effective positive feedback [8]. - MEG has a weakly oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 13th, the PX price fell. An Asian spot in September was traded at $831. The PX price lost support due to the decline in crude oil futures. The supply recovery and weak downstream demand depressed the market sentiment, but some participants thought the market was relatively tight [5]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4,695 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 13 [6]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced its load to replace the catalyst, and a 800,000 - ton/year plant in Zhejiang restarted [6]. - **Polyester**: On the 13th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 48%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Viewpoints and Suggestions - **PX**: Weak unilateral trend, main contract position shift, monthly spread reverse spread. PXN has short - term support, and pay attention to terminal orders from late August [8]. - **PTA**: Weak unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to unplanned production cuts and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high grey fabric inventory affects the positive feedback [8]. - **MEG**: Weakly oscillating unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the - 50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. This week, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, but the terminal demand is weak [9].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,074.00 | -36.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,794.00 | -26.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 617,712.00 | -8095.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 456,768.00 | -22810.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -104,374.00 | -1083.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -34,653.00 | +1088.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 88.00 | -8.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 170.00 | -22.00↓ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 75,520.00 | -187.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 19,998.00 | +379.00↑ | | ...

Report Date - The report is dated August 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,245.0, down 3.00%. The sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties saw a correction. The overall mine - end inventory decreased, and clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On August 13, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,737.0, down 2.83%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented on the spot side. Market sentiment was volatile. The raw - material inventory increased. The current hot - metal output was 2.4223 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. The hot - metal output was at a high level, and the coal - mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking - coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Considering the price reaching the previous high, it should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1,245.00 yuan/ton, down 68.00 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1,737.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan [2] - JM futures - contract holding volume was 920,978.00 lots, down 56,561.00 lots; J futures - contract holding volume was 54,194.00 lots, down 227.00 lots [2] - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 115,590.00 lots, down 32,614.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6,516.00 lots, down 12.00 lots [2] - JM January - September contract spread was 144.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; J January - September contract spread was 77.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan [2] - Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,011.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Russian main - coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.00 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Australian imported main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main - coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - JM main - contract basis was 75.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan; J main - contract basis was - 72.00 yuan/ton, up 75.00 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The clean - coal output of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 26.40 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the clean - coal inventory of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 297.00 million tons, up 8.90 million tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the raw - coal output was 42,107.40 million tons, up 1,779.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3,560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2] - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2] - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2] - The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2] - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - The output of coking coal was 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34% [2] - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2] - The crude - steel output was 8,318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] Industry News - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to limit production from August 16 - 25 by 30%, from August 26 - September 3 by 50%, and resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 4.1 million tons. The current operation rate of this coking enterprise is 90% [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, the lowest level since April 2023, in line with market expectations [2] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, false publicity, etc., and to reasonably arrange new production capacity [2] - China Evergrande announced that it will cancel its listing status on August 25, 2025 [2] - Guizhou Province issued measures to strengthen coal (mine) warehouse management, aiming to reduce the number of coal (mine) warehouses [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-13 现货价格整体下跌，市场情绪偏弱 市场分析 1、8月12日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3506元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨20元/吨，涨幅 0.57%；持仓223130手，环比上涨2129手，成交120282手，环比下降42561手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3880—4086元/吨；山东，3520—3870元/吨；华南，3540—3550元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北、山东、华南以及川渝市场沥青现货价格均出现下跌，其余地区暂时以持稳为主。近日原油价格趋势转 弱，沥青成本端支撑松动，盘面与现货端情绪受到一定利空影响。就沥青自身基本面来看，供需两弱格局大体延 续，库存仍处于低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期过剩压力有限，但受到天气因素影响终端需求改善乏 力，投机需求也有待恢复，整体情绪一般。抛开成本端的带动外，沥青来自基本面的驱动有限。如果油价持续下 跌，则沥青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端 ...

Report Overview - Research Variety: Beans - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal Futures - Researcher: Qi Jianhua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 first declined and then rose, with short - term technical support and a slight weekly increase. However, affected by factors such as the decline of CBOT soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean meal spot supply, and limited demand, the soybean meal market price was under pressure. The average spot price in most regions of the country fell below 2,800 yuan/ton, and the rebound of the futures contract M2509 was restricted, with limited upside potential [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Market Overall Performance - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 reduced positions and increased trading volume. The price was mainly in a strong and volatile adjustment, and the weekly K - line was finally a positive line [3] 1.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Name | Week Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Week Closing Price | Week Settlement Price | Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Turnover (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | m2507 | 2,820 | 2,820 | 2,781 | 2,802 | 2,802 | - 4 | 166 | 2,016 | - 166 | 0.05 | | m2508 | 2,934 | 2,966 | 2,908 | 2,957 | 2,952 | 15 | 224,458 | 93,250 | - 43,408 | 65.84 | | m2509 | 2,954 | 2,985 | 2,925 | 2,976 | 2,971 | 14 | 4,712,933 | 2,008,008 | - 115,107 | 1,390.19 | | m2511 | 2,992 | 3,023 | 2,959 | 3,013 | 3,009 | 13 | 475,180 | 657,765 | 56,886 | 142.03 | | m2512 | 3,023 | 3,046 | 3,002 | 3,037 | 3,034 | 7 | 80,196 | 123,631 | 13,228 | 24.23 | | m2601 | 3,007 | 3,024 | 2,978 | 3,015 | 3,009 | 3 | 1,220,183 | 1,114,718 | 55,939 | 365.7 | | m2603 | 2,864 | 2,883 | 2,845 | 2,875 | 2,871 | 10 | 297,454 | 375,793 | 62,855 | 85.09 | | m2605 | 2,711 | 2,722 | 2,696 | 2,704 | 2,704 | - 14 | 531,616 | 562,845 | 80,217 | 143.78 | | Sub - total for Soybean Meal | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | | Total | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7,542,186 | 4,938,026 | 110,444 | 2,216.9 | [7] 2. Influencing Factor Analysis 2.1 This Week's Important News and Event Reviews - **US Soybeans**: According to the USDA monthly report, the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 83.4 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 100,000 acres. The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in July for the 2025/2026 season is 310 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15 million bushels [11][12] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: Brazil's ANEC stated that the expected soybean export volume in July is 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase compared to 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. The expected soybean meal export volume is 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase compared to 2.01 million tons in the same period last year. Additionally, Safras&Mercado said that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2% year - on - year to 48.2 million hectares [12] - **Domestic Situation**: Mvsteel showed that in the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%, 56,300 tons lower than the forecast. It is expected that the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills will increase slightly next week [12] 3. Conclusion and Outlook - Currently, the main domestic soybean meal futures contract M2509 is gradually shifting positions. In the short term, there is a lack of obvious driving factors to guide the price. Coupled with the fact that the domestic soybean meal spot supply is abundant, the main soybean meal futures contract M2509 may continue the range - bound market. In the future, changes in US soybean planting weather, international trade policies, and domestic supply - demand conditions may be the key factors affecting soybean meal prices [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - On August 12, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1313.0, up 6.97%. The macro - expectation is warming up with the upcoming news conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". Fundamentally, the overall inventory at the mine end is decreasing, and the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. - On August 12, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1812.0, up 4.50%. The fifth round of price increase has been implemented on the spot side. The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days since August 12, 2025 has greatly improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded. The current pig iron output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The inventory at the coal mine end is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1313.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1812.00 yuan/ton, up 131.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 977539.00 lots, up 35457.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume: 54421.00 lots, up 1344.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 82976.00 lots, unchanged; net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: - 6504.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 150.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, up 700.00 sheets; coke warehouse receipts: 800.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal: 986.00 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 147.00 yuan/ton, down 131.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 7.00 yuan/ton, down 57.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output (monthly): 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 188.30 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 987.92 million tons, down 4.81 million tons; coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 69.73 million tons, down 3.89 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; coke inventory of 247 national sample steel mills (weekly): 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 10.91 days, down 0.26 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 74.03%, up 0.34% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; coke output (monthly): 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills (weekly): 83.77%, up 0.29%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - The National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau will hold a special press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" at 10:00 am on August 13 [2]. - As of now, 10 national intelligent demonstration coal mines have been built in Shanxi Province, and a total of 289 intelligent coal mines have been built [2]. - Recently, the "Several Policy Measures for Henan Province to Support Enterprises in Reducing Costs and Increasing Efficiency" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the ultra - low emission transformation of the steel industry [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US enterprises bear 64% of the tariff cost, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the cost [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 12, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract was reported at 6110, up 0.16%. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 90 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 70 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On August 12, the ferrosilicon 2509 contract was reported at 5820, up 0.21%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5630. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 6110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 625,807 hands, up 3198 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 479,578 hands, up 10554 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 104,374 hands, down 1083 hands; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 34,653 hands, up 1088 hands [2]. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 96 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 192 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The SM仓单 was 75,520 sheets, down 187 sheets; the SF仓单 was 19,998 sheets, up 379 sheets [2]. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18, Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18, and Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged, Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5530 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5630 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5833 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 448.90 million tons, up 10.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise opening rate was 43.43%, up 1.25%; the ferrosilicon enterprise opening rate was 34.32%, up 0.56% [2]. - The manganese - silicon supply was 195,825 tons, up 5005 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 109,100 tons, up 4700 tons [2]. - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 161,500 tons, down 2500 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 7.17 million tons, up 0.62 million tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,200 tons, up 1485 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 20,266.30 tons, up 344.30 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace opening rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - The crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Mine Safety Supervision Administration will hold a special press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" at 10:00 am on August 13 [2]. - As of now, Shanxi Province has built 10 national intelligent demonstration coal mines and a total of 289 intelligent coal mines [2]. - Henan Province has issued policies to support enterprises in reducing costs and increasing efficiency, including promoting ultra - low emission transformation in the steel industry [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US enterprises bear 64% of the tariff cost, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. It is expected that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the cost, and the proportion borne by enterprises will drop to less than 10% [2].