澳大利亚联储距离此前降息不足半年，或将于本周逆转政策方向，启动加息以压制抬头的通胀压力。 目前仍有高盛集团、德意志银行等机构预期联储维持利率不变，但多数观点倾向加息。也有声音指出， 该国中左翼政府去年大幅增加选举相关支出，加码监管措施，对生产率增长形成拖累，推高单位劳动力 成本至5%左右，与联储通胀目标难以匹配。 经济学家预计，澳洲联储将于周二将现金利率上调25个基点至3.85%。此次政策转向源于顽固的价格压 力，意外走低的失业率进一步加剧了通胀上行风险。GSFM的投资策略师斯蒂芬·米勒表示："通胀是一 个清晰而现实的危险，现在通过上调政策利率来应对这一危险是最恰当的反应。若不这样做，很可能将 导致未来不得不更激进地使用政策利率工具。" 当前全球货币政策路径分化明显。美联储以及一些亚洲新兴经济体准备降息，欧元区大概率维持利率不 变，日本则可能进一步收紧政策。 澳洲联储将于当地时间周二下午2:30宣布政策决定，并同步发布季度经济预测更新。一小时后，布洛克 将举行会后新闻发布会。若此次加息落地，将成为2023年11月以来的首次紧缩操作，但多数观点认为这 不会开启连续加息周期——当前金融条件已在收紧，澳元今年以来上 ...

在日元缺乏明确政策支撑、美元持续受益于偏鹰预期的背景下，相关货币对的上行逻辑依然成立，维持 高位运行态势。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 2026年2月2日，日本央行公布1月货币政策会议意见摘要，整体维持循序渐进的紧缩立场，叠加日本首 相高市早苗对弱势日元的表态，与美国偏鹰的货币政策预期形成共振。 来源：市场资讯 美元方面持续获得多重支撑。美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，市 场普遍认为该人选具备较强的纪律性和审慎性，这一人事安排意味着货币政策在降息问题上将保持克 制，美联储独立性风险有所下降，增强了美元资产的吸引力。通胀数据进一步强化了这一预期，美国12 月PPI同比维持在3.0%，未如市场预期回落，核心PPI同比升至3.3%，反映出上游价格压力依然居高不 下。多位美联储官员最新表态延续偏鹰基调，认为当前利率水平大体处于中性或略偏限制性区间，短期 内不具备进一步降息的迫切性。 日本央行会议意见未对政策路径作出明显调整，委员们普遍认为"落后于曲线"的风险并未显著上升，但 也强调在当前实际利率深度为负的背景下，若经济增长与通胀前 ...

海外市场方面，美联储1月维持利率不变符合预期，美国总统特朗普确定下任美联储主席人选引发市场对后续货币政策走向猜测，美债 收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 行情回顾 2026年1月30日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月23日分别变动 1.8BP、-1.94BP、-2.09BP、-2.04BP、-1.82BP、-1.86BP、0.19BP、1.5BP。 新华财经北京2月2日电（王柘）上周（2026年1月26日至1月30日）资金跨月，偏紧格局在央行流动性呵护下缓解。债券市场在商品和权 益市场走弱以及年初配置盘推动下多数走强，收益率下行约2BP。超长端或受供给担忧因素影响表现偏弱，收益率上行约1BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)* | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月23日 | 1月30日 | 变动(BP) | | 0 | 1.088 | 1.112 | 2.4 | | 0.08 | 1.2608 | 1.2641 | 0. 33 | | 0. 17 | 1.3228 | 1. 3443 | 2. 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market has decreased, with only trading and gaming value remaining in the process, and the medium - to - long - term expected returns are low or negative [29]. - In 2025, the performance of pure - bond funds continued to weaken, while "fixed - income plus" funds had an advantage. They are entering a new development stage [30]. - In January, the industrial high - frequency data rebounded, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date shift. Policy - related impacts are still evident, but policy - based financial tools may improve the construction and infrastructure sectors. In the short term, it is difficult to expect total - volume monetary policies, and the second quarter may be a possible time for total - volume interest rate cuts [30]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds increased beyond the seasonal norm, but the number decreased. In the future, the yields of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [31]. - Despite the interest rate reversal between China and Japan, global funds prefer low - interest - rate China due to factors such as exchange rates. China will eventually emerge from low inflation and enter a new cycle [31]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman may lead to a change in Fed policies. The overall orientation of monetary policy remains relatively loose, but in the medium term, the erosion of the Fed's independence may continue to reduce the intrinsic value of the US dollar [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous period and the same period last year. The Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the Non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, both showing a decline [1]. - In December 2025, the total social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. The market demand was insufficient, and the financial market was active [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio of silver futures contracts from February 3 [2]. - In 2025, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China was released. Tibet led the country in economic growth, driven by major infrastructure projects [2]. - The CME raised the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures due to the sharp decline in precious metal prices. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman may lead to policy adjustments [3]. - The WTO ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act violated WTO rules [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The nomination of Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp decline in the global precious metal market. Spot silver, gold, platinum, and palladium all fell significantly. Some domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased [5]. - Some banks adjusted their gold accumulation businesses, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange took measures against abnormal trading in some funds [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - January 2026, the price of rebar reached a new high since late August 2025, rising 0.34% month - on - month [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, the national power market trading volume reached 6.64 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 130 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 84% [9]. - Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and taking measures against Canadian aircraft. India may reduce Russian oil imports [9]. - The EU plans to ban maritime services for Russian oil transportation as part of new sanctions [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since February 2, 2026, a 5% temporary import tariff rate has been implemented on whiskey [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will expire on Wednesday [13]. - On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 352.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, mainly due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [14]. - The Politburo emphasized the development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's article on building a financial power was published [14][15]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The UK Prime Minister visited China, and the two sides reached multiple cooperation agreements [16][17]. - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7%, and fiscal expenditure increased by 1%. The operating income of state - owned enterprises increased slightly, while the total profit decreased [17]. - Tax policies were adjusted, including changes to the VAT threshold for natural persons and clarification of VAT calculation methods [18]. - In 2025, Tibet led the country in economic growth, and many provinces planned to use local government bonds to acquire idle land [19]. - In January 2026, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities decreased, while the price of new homes increased in some cities [19]. - The China Banking Association issued guidelines for consumer loan collection. The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement accelerated, and local government explicit debt increased [19][20]. - Convertible bond funds performed well, while bond ETFs faced capital outflows. The US Senate passed an appropriation bill, but the government entered a partial shutdown [20][21]. - Japan was still under US Treasury monitoring, and some bonds were suspended or had changes in their transfer methods [21][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - On January 30, the Chinese bond market fluctuated. Interest - rate bond yields changed little, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. Money market rates showed different trends [24]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some Vanke bonds rose, and some other bonds fell. The convertible bond index declined [24][25]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. Most non - US currencies depreciated [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the convertible bond market, "fixed - income plus" funds, monetary policies, and money - market funds [29][30][31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 2, 143 bonds will be listed, 124 bonds will be issued, 85 bonds will require payment, and 399 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - As of January 31, 3057 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts. 53.6% of them were optimistic. Industries such as non - ferrous metals and new energy showed good performance [34].

全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2026年2月2日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 | | 截至2026/01/30 | 近三个月走势 | 近一周涨跌幅 | 当月涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发达国家 | 标普500 | | 0.34% | 1.37% | 1.37% | | | 德国DAX | | -1.45% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | | 日经225 | | -0.97% | 5.93% | 5.93% | | | 英国富时100 | | 0.79% | 2.94% | 2.94% | | | 法国CAC40指数 | | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.28% | | | 韩国KOSPI综合指数 | | 4.70% | 23.97% | 23.97% | | | 加拿大标普/TSX指数 | | -3.69% | 0.66% ...

图为截至1月30日三大人民币汇率指数。来源：中国外汇交易中心 国际方面：特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民主党领袖舒默与共 和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上任。 此外，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预期，但政策声明透露出内 部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 新华财经北京2月2日电中国外汇交易中心最新计算的2026年1月30日CFETS人民币汇率指数为96.99，按周跌1.25%；BIS货币篮子人民 币汇率指数报104.06，按周跌1.25%；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.52，按周跌0.77%。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国人民银行持续推进内地与香港金融市场互联互通机制，全面覆盖债 券、股票、货币衍生品、黄金等多个子市场，有效支持全球投资者通过香港开展人民币投融资活动。邹澜表示，香港已成为全球最 大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。 近日，中国人民银行与斯里兰卡央行签署人民币清算安排合作备忘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently stable with major currency pairs showing little movement, while key economic data and events are expected to influence market dynamics in the near term [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - Key economic data to be released includes: - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI - UK's January Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month - Switzerland's December actual retail sales year-on-year - Eurozone and major economies' January Manufacturing PMI final values, including France, Germany, the UK, and the Eurozone - US's January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value and January ISM Manufacturing PMI [1][7]. Currency Pair Analysis - **US Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a consolidation phase with balanced bullish and bearish forces, showing a price near the middle Bollinger Band [3]. - **GBP/USD**: Slight increase observed, trading within a narrow range, with potential resistance at 1.3710 [3]. - **EUR/USD**: Continued upward trend, reaching levels not seen since 2021, but showing signs of overbought conditions [4]. - **USD/JPY**: Experiencing a rebound from recent lows, but facing limitations due to interest rate differentials and potential interventions [4]. Geopolitical and Market Events - Notable geopolitical events include: - US-Iran negotiations potentially taking place in Turkey - Statements from the US House Speaker regarding confidence in ending parts of the government shutdown - Upcoming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia [5][6][7].

| | 20260202申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL I | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9 H | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 1405.5 1232.5 1874. 0 1787.0 | | 1155. 5 | | | 1721.5 | | | | 前2日收盘价 1419.5 | | 1165.0 | 1242.5 | 1876.5 | 1723.0 | 1791.5 | | EH | 煮蛋 -14.0 | | -9.5 | -10.0 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | | स्त | 楽跌幅 -0. 99% | | -0. 82% | -0. 80% | -0.13% ...

"鹰派惊喜"：高盛对沃什任命影响的首次评估 特朗普总统已宣布提名凯文・沃什为美联储主席，此前隔夜有报道称提名即将出炉。 提名敲定 预测市场迅速大幅波动，将沃什列为最热门的提名人选（在相关头条实际发布前就已开始上涨）。 隔夜头条发布后，美元整体温和走强，美国国债收益率曲线出现小幅熊陡，美股则小幅下跌。 "鹰派惊喜"：高盛对沃什任命影响的首次评估 特朗普总统已宣布提名凯文・沃什为美联储主席，此前隔夜有报道称提名即将出炉。 提名敲定 预测市场迅速大幅波动，将沃什列为最热门的提名人选（在相关头条实际发布前就已开始上涨）。 隔夜头条发布后，美元整体温和走强，美国国债收益率曲线出现小幅熊陡，美股则小幅下跌。 为何是沃什？ 高盛萨赫斯 Delta One 交易主管 Rich Privotsky从长期视角解读了 "为何是沃什"： 这在很大程度上平息了关于美联储独立性的质疑，从长期来看，这或许是正确的基调。 你必须承认，美国体系正从美元体系向沃什倾斜，而如果没有一个可信的中央银行，最终将导致体系破裂。 一种解释是…… 这与 20 世纪 70 年代沃尔克并非卡特的首选、而是市场的选择如出一辙。 市场影响解读 高盛顶级策略师 St ...

Group 1 - The central bank emphasizes a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, indicating potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support financing costs and market risk appetite [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments encourage mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical retail sector, promoting integration between wholesale and retail, which may benefit leading companies through economies of scale [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited concentration among public utility operators, signaling stricter antitrust enforcement in essential services, which may slow down M&A activity in this sector [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged past $4,900, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, boosting demand for precious metals as a hedge against inflation [3] - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the precious metals sector leading gains, while other sectors like battery and commercial aerospace have seen declines [5] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to stimulate tourism, with a report indicating a significant increase in travel bookings, reflecting a trend towards more diverse travel experiences [14][17] Group 3 - AWS and Google Cloud have initiated price increases for their cloud services, indicating rising demand for computing power, particularly in AI infrastructure [20] - The solid-state battery industry is advancing, with several companies announcing strategic partnerships and production plans, suggesting a growing focus on innovative battery technologies [24] - The domestic new energy vehicle market has shown strong growth, with significant year-on-year increases in sales and penetration rates, indicating a robust demand for electric vehicles [29]