期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 25 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：多头排列震荡上行 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金面延续偏松 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松 | 盘面持续承压 7 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价跟随 7 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 9 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 生猪：供应仍有压力 | 现货整体震荡 11 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面偏弱震荡 11 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 12 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 13 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 14 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 15 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 17 | | 金银：初请数据叠加节前获利了结，金银高位冲高回落 18 | | --- | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

国债期货日报 2025/12/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.195 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 56411 | -12732↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.990 | -0.03% TF主力成交量 | 49022 | -5686↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.510 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 30026 | 3525↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.510 | -0.24% TL主力成交量 | 95007 | -15756↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.22 | +0.00↑ T03-TL03价差 | -4.32 | 0.29↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | -0.02↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.21 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.01 | -0.00↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

新华网北京12月25日电（刘睿祎 梁栋飞）近期，人民币兑美元汇率不断走强。12月25日，离岸人民币 对美元升破7.0整数关口，截至发稿时，达6.9978；在岸人民币对美元也探至7.0133。另外，中国外汇交 易中心12月25日受权公布人民币对美元的市场汇价，即人民币对美元市场中间价为7.0392，上调79个基 点。 他表示，美联储降息将继续主导美元指数走势。尽管明年美联储降息节奏需视美国经济后续走势而定， 但在新任美联储主席有可能态度偏"鸽"、更偏向用货币政策来保增长的情况下，降息幅度或超过今年9 月的点阵图预测。 "从2019年和2024年经验来看，美元指数在降息兑现后，均有所反弹，但在数月后转向下行。若以此类 推，特别是再考虑到美联储的降息空间或明显大于其他非美央行，美元指数的下行趋势或大致于明年一 季度或二季度正式开启。同时，美国经济仍领跑主要发达经济体，对于美元有支撑。"温彬说。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，10月中旬以来，人民币经历了一波快速升值，但结汇率并没有显 著走高。其团队研报分析称，10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行重启逆周期因子、不断调升的 中间价对升值有一定引导。而12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "2026 Year Outlook" event hosted by Ningbo Bank, focusing on macroeconomic trends and investment strategies for the new year, addressing key questions regarding monetary policy, fiscal policy, currency trends, export performance, and market conditions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "2026 Year Outlook" event will take place on December 27, featuring discussions on macroeconomic conditions and asset strategies for 2026 [1]. - The event will include insights from four senior experts at Ningbo Bank, including the Vice President and heads of various departments [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The event will feature a series of presentations, including: - Macroeconomic and capital market outlook for 2026 by Zhou Yanchang, Chief Strategy Analyst [4]. - Bond market outlook for 2026 by Chai Feibin, General Manager of the Investment Banking Department [4]. - RMB exchange rate outlook for 2026 by Wang Dandan, Vice President [4]. - Outlook for commodities and precious metals market for 2026 by Qiu Difan, General Manager of the Research Department [4]. Group 3: Live Broadcast Information - The event will be live-streamed on Ningbo Bank's corporate finance video account and wealth management Douyin account, with coverage from multiple mainstream media outlets [6].

Economic News - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues a plan for the special governance of the quality and safety of industrial products sold online from 2025 to 2027 [2] - In November, China's total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries seeing a 6.7% increase [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announces increased policy support for foreign trade innovation and development [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry firmly opposes the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on China's semiconductor industry starting in 2027 [2] - Beijing's housing authorities relax home purchase conditions for non-local families and support housing needs for families with multiple children [2] Company News - Springlight Technology receives OEM/ODM orders for "W1" and "M1" robot products from Lexiang Technology, amounting to 43.2628 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials' subsidiary, Qing Magnesium Smart Plastic, signs a procurement contract with Lingxin Qiaoshou for lightweight components and assembly services, totaling 10 million yuan [3] - Nanshan Aluminum establishes a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hainan with an investment of 5 million yuan to expand high-end aluminum product development and trade [3] - Sunshine Nuohuo signs a technology development contract with Zhejiang Xinghao, with a total payment of 500 million yuan, including an 8% sales share [5] - Jiaheng Home Products' controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [5] Industry Research Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The Ministry of Commerce announces anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports, effective from December 17, 2025, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% [6] - EU pork imports account for 51% of China's total pork imports, but only 2.03% of total consumption, indicating a limited impact on overall supply [7] - The anti-dumping duties are expected to increase the cost of EU pork imports, leading to a decrease in import volumes and a diversification of import sources [7] - Despite the anti-dumping measures, domestic supply and demand dynamics will continue to influence pork prices, with an oversupply expected to persist [8] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming industry, such as Muyuan Foods, as the market dynamics improve [8] Food and Beverage - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiates temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, with preliminary subsidy rates between 28.6% and 42.7% [10][11] - The affected dairy products include cream and cheese, which have significantly impacted domestic producers' profitability [12] - The average price of fresh milk in China remains low at 3.03 yuan/kg, putting pressure on dairy companies [13] - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to create market opportunities for domestic dairy processing companies, benefiting firms like Lihai and Miao Ke Landuo [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in gold prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and the growing interest in gold ETFs as a means for investors to gain exposure to the gold market [2] - Gold ETF scales are rapidly expanding, with several products experiencing significant daily inflows, indicating a strong alignment between capital allocation behavior and market trends [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the monetary policies of major central banks, particularly the US and Japan, which have led to a general uptrend in asset prices, including precious metals [2] Group 2 - Despite a recent pullback in gold prices, both Shanghai gold and New York gold remain above key psychological levels, indicating resilience in the market [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by increased uncertainty and pressure from US Treasury supply, is contributing to the attractiveness of gold as a low-barrier, liquid investment option [2] - The market may experience cautious behavior domestically due to the lack of international market guidance during the upcoming holiday period, potentially leading to high-level fluctuations in gold prices [2]

UNFX知识分享 影响白银市场最大的因素通常是全球经济状况和货币政策，尤其是美元走势和利率变 化。以下是具体原因： 1. 美元走势 白银以美元计价，美元与白银价格通常呈负相关。 美元走强：白银价格往往下跌，因为持有白银的成本增加。 美元走弱：白银价格通常上涨，因为持有白银的成本降低。 美元是全球储备货币，其走势受美国经济数据、货币政策（如美联储利率决策）和全球经济形势影响。 2. 货币政策（尤其是美联储政策） 经济强劲时，工业需求（如电子、光伏）增加，推动白银价格上涨。 经济衰退时，工业需求减少，白银价格可能下跌。 利率变化： 加息：利率上升时，持有白银的机会成本增加，投资者可能转向收益更高的资产，导致白银价格下跌。 降息：利率下降时，白银的吸引力增强，价格可能上涨。 量化宽松（QE）：当美联储实施宽松政策（如印钞、购债）时，市场流动性增加，通胀预期上升，白 银作为抗通胀资产，价格往往上涨。 3. 全球经济状况 经济增长： 5. 供需关系 供应：矿山产量、回收量、生产成本等影响白银供应。 需求：工业需求（占白银总需求的50%以上）、投资需求和珠宝需求的变化也会显著影响价格。 供需失衡（如供应短缺或需求激增）会 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 296 billion, 40 billion, and 40.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -47.3 billion, 28.1 billion, and 40.1 billion [1][6] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 135.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 25 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 251.1 billion, with a net financing amount of 56.7 billion. No new convertible bonds were issued [1][6] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with short- to medium-term interest rates performing well. Key influencing factors include central bank open market operations, expectations of interest rate cuts, and institutional behavior in bond allocation [2][7] - The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, signaling support for the year-end funding situation. The final R001 and R007 rates increased by 0.4 basis points and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][7] Policy and Fundamentals - November economic data fell short of expectations, with weak performance in investment and consumption. High-frequency data indicates a weak production sector towards year-end, a downturn in real estate demand, a rebound in exports, and a mixed price trend with food prices diverging and most production material prices strengthening [3][8] Overseas Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed resilience, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) weakened beyond expectations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.16%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [4][9] Equity Market - The A-share index experienced significant fluctuations last week, with the Wind All A index slightly down by 0.15%. There was structural differentiation, with retail trade and basic chemicals leading gains, while electronics and power equipment lagged. The market lacked major sector opportunities, with average daily trading volume decreasing to 1.76 trillion, down 192.5 billion from the previous week. As of December 18, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 24,825.32 billion, a decrease of 7.597 billion from December 11 [5][10] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market remains in a volatile state. The central bank's willingness to cut reserve requirements or interest rates in the short term is limited, focusing instead on facilitating the monetary transmission mechanism. The downward space for bond yields is yet to be opened, while the upward space remains constrained. The adjustment of long-term interest rates at year-end is primarily driven by sell-off operations to balance duration risk in a volatile market. The current yield spread for 10-30 year government bonds has risen to 40 basis points, approaching a risk balance point. However, the bond market is expected to trend towards a stronger stance as year-end approaches, with continued allocation from banks and insurance companies. The convertible bond index is also experiencing fluctuations, with a shift from "extraordinary" to "normal" settings in important meetings. Liquidity and institutional behavior remain key indicators, with a focus on risk-reward ratios in the convertible bond market [11]

近日，地缘宏观专家Marko Papic做客主持人Eric Townsend的一档播客节目。 Marko，我们直接进入正题吧，因为这周有很多话题可以讨论。我想委内瑞拉可能是大家首先关注的事 情。通常，如果你要开始一场空战，首先要做的就是通过非常明确的军事和政治协议宣布一个禁飞区。 所以我不认为他（特朗普）会在委内瑞拉重复他显然厌恶的做法。但如果他从马杜罗 那里得不到他想要的东西，他会不会将委内瑞拉变成一片停车场呢？我认为，这个可 能性是50-50。是有可能发生的。 我并不认为油价会出现看空的结果，至少在接下来的18个月内不会。 沙特阿拉伯不可能永远替美国效劳。总有一天，他们需要布伦特原油价格高于60美 元。不是100美元那样高，但至少是70、75美元。 如果特朗普总统想专注于可负担性和通胀问题，他需要为油价在80美元左右的世界做 好准备，并通过供给侧改革降低美国经济其他部分的成本。这是唯一的办法，因为不 能仅仅依靠能源来控制通胀，必须还有其他措施。 柴油的制裁是个大问题，俄罗斯的柴油可能会重新进入市场，这应该会带动其他产品 价格的下跌。所以，我确实认为，如果协议明天就达成，油价可能会下降5%。 如果这些机构投 ...