来源：新民晚报 美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）29日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以 来第五次降息。 面临不确定性 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一步降息并非板上钉钉。分析人士认为，在美联储 内部分歧加剧、联邦政府"停摆"导致重要经济数据缺失、平衡就业和通胀风险压力仍存等因素困扰下， 美联储未来货币政策面临很大的不确定性。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示，今年就业增长放缓，失业率上 升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鲍威尔强调，在平衡就业和通胀这两大目标的 过程中，美联储政策制定"没有绝对安全的路径"。 美联储未对12月政策释放明确预期指导，市场将此解读为"给降息前景泼了冷水"。牛津经济研究院经济 学家迈克尔·皮尔斯预计，美联储将开始放缓降息步伐。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具的数据显示，市场预期美联储12月再次降息的概率已从一天前的90% 大幅降至70%以下。 此外，美国经济仍然面临就业市场放缓和通胀上行的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy showed a slight growth of 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, but significant downside risks continue to hinder economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The economic performance of major Eurozone economies is diverging, with France growing by 0.5% driven by trade and domestic demand, while Germany and Italy stagnated, barely avoiding recession [2] - Germany's economy recorded zero growth in Q3 after a contraction of 0.2% in Q2, becoming a key factor restraining overall Eurozone economic acceleration [2] - Other countries displayed mixed results, with Sweden leading at 1.1% growth, while Ireland, Finland, and Lithuania experienced economic contraction [2] Group 2: Government Policies and Challenges - The German government is increasing infrastructure and defense spending, but analysts believe the actual impact of these stimulus measures may fall short of expectations due to factors like skilled labor shortages and high material costs [2] - France is facing political and fiscal challenges despite its economic growth, with warnings from the central bank governor about the risk of "gradual suffocation" due to rising debt levels [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, entering a phase of "extended observation" due to weak economic recovery and declining inflation [3] - The ECB's current policy is flexible, neither tightening nor fully shifting to easing, allowing room for potential economic turning points [3] - ECB President Lagarde highlighted ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions as factors contributing to uncertain inflation prospects in Europe [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - European economists suggest that the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, with a high threshold for future rate cuts, as inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% over the next two years [4] - The Eurozone's overall growth rate has been low, with structural pressures and cautious investment sentiment due to weak external demand and increased trade uncertainties [5] - Despite a tentative improvement in consumer demand driven by falling inflation and slight wage increases, manufacturing and exports remain under pressure from global demand weakness and cost challenges [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy in China [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Mechanisms - The central bank aims to strengthen the role of policy interest rates and narrow the width of the short-term interest rate corridor to improve the transmission of monetary policy to market interest rates [2] - There is a focus on optimizing the monetary policy intermediate variables and maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates, while shifting attention from quantity targets to more observational and reference indicators [3] Group 2: Financial Sector Competition and Coordination - The article highlights the need to address "involution" competition and capital churn in the financial sector, while enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [4] - It calls for better coordination between monetary policy and fiscal, industrial policies in managing demand and structural adjustments [4] Group 3: Macro-Prudential Tools - The central bank is encouraged to enrich and refine the toolbox of macro-prudential policy instruments to address issues in key areas such as systemically important financial institutions and cross-border capital flows [5] - A standardized and regulated management mechanism for the creation, implementation, evaluation, feedback, and optimization of these tools is proposed [5] Group 4: Exchange Rate Management - The article stresses the importance of allowing the market to play a decisive role in the formation of the RMB exchange rate while maintaining its flexibility to support macroeconomic stability [6] - It emphasizes the need for bottom-line thinking and expectation management to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [6] Group 5: Risk Prevention and Economic Stability - The need for comprehensive risk prevention measures in key sectors to avoid significant fluctuations that could impact high-quality economic and financial development is highlighted [7] - The article advocates for timely interventions to correct market "herding effects" and promote a positive cycle between the real economy and financial markets [7] - It also emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in the real estate market and balancing risk prevention with innovation in internet finance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system along with a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework in China [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The People's Bank of China aims to optimize the mechanism for basic currency issuance and the intermediate variables of monetary policy [1] - There is a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in the total financial volume while ensuring ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The goal is to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The article advocates for a gradual establishment of a basic currency issuance mechanism that combines short, medium, and long-term strategies with Chinese characteristics [1] - It suggests a shift in focus from quantitative targets to more observational, reference, and expectation-based indicators in monetary policy [1] - This shift is intended to create conditions for greater effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of short - term treasury bond futures [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends on the previous trading day. The T2512 contract rose 0.06% and its trading volume increased [2] - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally declined on the previous trading day. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 2.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 8.6bp [2] - The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined on the previous trading day. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 30.38bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro News and Strategy - The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 30, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [3] - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to the stability of the economic situation [3] - The new 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan and promote economic development [3] - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the target level [3] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, while US treasury bond yields rose collectively [3]

北京时间今天凌晨，美联储召开了10月FOMC会议，以10票赞成、2票反对的投票结果决定降息25bp至 3.75%-4.00%，并宣布将于12月1日起结束缩表。本次决定符合市场预期，但会后鲍威尔讲话偏鹰。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上整体态度偏谨慎：承认委员会对政策路径的分歧，给市场此前一致预期的12月降 息泼了冷水。他表示，政府关门可能会带来数据的真空期，但是前景看不清时，放慢速度可能也是一种 选择。 发布会上鲍威尔针对如下要点给出答复： 1．通胀：合理的基准情景是，对通胀的影响将是相对短暂的，是价格水平的一次性转变。排除关税影 响的通胀与我们的2%目标相差不远。 2．劳动力市场：我们看到了一个非常不同的劳动力市场景象，表明劳动力市场的下行风险比我们想象 的要高。相当多的大公司因为AI的发展正在裁员，但我们尚未在首次申请失业救济金的数据中看到。 3．增长：政府关门前的数据显示，经济活动的增长轨迹可能比预期的更加稳固，这主要反映了消费者 支出的强劲。企业对设备和无形资产的投资继续扩大。我不认为在全国各地建设数据中心所发生的支出 是特别对利率敏感的。一些次级汽车信贷机构遭受了重大损失，其中一些损失现在正出现在银行的账簿 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Jiangsu Branch reported on the financial statistics for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, as well as the effectiveness of debt financing tools in supporting Jiangsu's economic and social development [3][4]. Financial Performance - Jiangsu's financial operation showed a strong performance with a total social financing increment of 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 550.5 billion yuan year-on-year [4] - By the end of September, the balance of various loans in Jiangsu reached 28.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, surpassing the national average by 2.9 percentage points [4] - New loans in the first three quarters amounted to 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 682 billion yuan year-on-year [4] - The balance of deposits reached 27.73 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 2.26 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [4] Credit Structure Optimization - Long-term loans for manufacturing and infrastructure grew by 14.4% and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing overall loan growth [5] - Loans for scientific research and technical services surged by 34.8%, leading all sectors [5] - Micro and small enterprise loans increased by 24% year-on-year, with the number of loan accounts rising by 13.3% [5] - Green loans reached 5.48 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.02 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [5] Financing Costs - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and micro-enterprise loans were 3.08% and 3.25%, respectively, down by 45 and 53 basis points year-on-year [5] - The overall financing cost index for enterprises remained low, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [5] Consumer Finance Support - The Jiangsu Branch implemented various financial support policies to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand [6] - A policy framework was established to enhance consumer finance supply, including measures for the sports industry and other key sectors [6][7] - By the end of September, loans in key service consumption sectors reached 255.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [7] Debt Financing Tools - The issuance of debt financing tools in Jiangsu reached 1.36 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with non-financial corporate debt financing tools accounting for 779.07 billion yuan [8] - The average issuance rate for non-financial corporate debt financing tools was 2.05%, down by 44 basis points year-on-year [8][9] - Initiatives were taken to improve the issuance process and support private enterprises in accessing bond financing [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most Treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a decline rate of 4.55%; manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, up 0.40% from the previous period with a growth rate of 0.81% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.52, up 0.39 with a growth rate of 0.39%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1000, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, down 0.03 with a decline rate of 1.85%; DR007 was 1.50, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 2.81%; R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.49%; the 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts, the price increases and decreases of Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [13][16][18][22]. 3. Overview of the Money Market's Capital Situation - The report includes charts on the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local bonds, the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [27][28][32]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents charts about the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [36][37][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [51][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [65][71]. 9. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase interest rate declines, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Attention should be paid to the basis rebound of the 2512 contract [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and the fifth since September 2024 [1][3] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction plan starting December 1, with the principal from mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term Treasury bonds [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious approach due to a lack of data, suggesting that future rate cuts are not guaranteed [1][13] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC's decision to lower the rate aligns with market expectations, reflecting a shift in risk balance [3] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains relatively high [3] Internal Divergence - The meeting showcased a rare "hawk-dove" scenario, indicating significant internal disagreement on economic outlook and monetary policy [6] - Some officials advocate for more aggressive rate cuts, while others prefer to maintain current rates due to inflation concerns [6] Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's assessment of the economy [8] - Powell emphasized the shutdown's negative impact on economic activity and consumer sentiment regarding inflation [8] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, U.S. stock indices initially fluctuated, with major tech stocks showing resilience [10] - The dollar index rose above 99, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, indicating market adjustments to the Fed's decisions [11] Future Policy Outlook - Powell's comments suggest that the decision for further rate cuts in December is not yet determined, reflecting a cautious stance [13] - Analysts expect continued rate cuts into 2026, influenced by tariff policies and economic fundamentals [17] Currency and Commodity Implications - The Fed's rate cuts are anticipated to have significant effects on global asset classes, with analysts monitoring the dollar's performance and the Chinese yuan's exchange rate [22] - Precious metals may remain strong due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, influenced by geopolitical developments and market risk preferences [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as the Swiss franc continues to strengthen against major currencies, raising concerns in the market [1]. Group 1: Swiss National Bank's Position - Petra Tschudin, a member of the SNB governing board, stated that while interest rates remain the primary tool for monetary policy, the bank will not shy away from intervening in the foreign exchange market when needed [1]. - The SNB has a history of intervening in the market when necessary, indicating a proactive approach to currency management [1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated approximately 13% against the US dollar and over 1% against the euro this year [1]. - Last week, the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the euro approached its highest level in nearly a decade, prompting the SNB to signal its close monitoring of market dynamics [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current exchange rate of USD/CHF is stabilizing above the 0.8000 level, with resistance levels noted at 0.8030-0.8040 and support levels at 0.7990-0.8000 [2].