如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容综合自互联网 ，谢谢。 Future Horizons 创始人兼首席执行官马尔科姆·佩恩 (Malcolm Penn)在最近于波兰索波特举行的 ISS 欧洲会议上发表主旨演讲时预测，2025 年全球芯片市场将增长 12%，上下浮动 10%。然而， 他警告我们，不要被这个两位数的百分比蒙蔽，要读懂字里行间的含义，因为"复苏基础脆弱"。 尽管2024年半导体行业将实现近20%的增长，但几乎没有值得庆祝的地方。最初预测的17.6%的增 幅主要是由平均销售价格（ASP）上涨推动的，而非单位需求的真正增长。然而，佩恩认为，除非 单位销售额增长，否则不可能出现真正的复苏。 "20% 的增长：我们梦想着这样的数字，但我们认为这是一个糟糕的数字，因为它没有反映我们所 看到的现实，"佩恩说。"去年增长的基础非常脆弱且不可持续，以至于我们真的不相信这是真 的。" 他补充道，晶圆厂利用率等关键指标全年都保持疲软，"除了最前沿的领域。" 2025 年预测：熊市 +6%，牛市 +16% 随着我们进入 2025 年，佩恩表示他预计今年还会再出现两位数的增长，但"我们认为这是一个人 为的 ...

期货研究报告|焦煤焦炭周报 2025-04-27 供需相对平衡，双焦区间运行 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 焦炭产量延续回升态势，需求端钢厂高炉开工率及日均铁水产量均有所上升，终端需求 对炼焦原料的刚性支撑；随着假期临近，部分钢厂有刚性补库需求，进一步强化了焦炭 市场的供需平衡状态。焦煤方面，受环保监管要求及蒙煤通关阶段性回落的双重影响， 焦煤库存呈现去化趋势。原料价格涨跌互现，短期需求端受铁水产量维持高位支撑，但 需关注后续铁水产量存在触顶回落的影响。长期来看，供应过剩格局尚未有明显改变， 后续需关注海外关税政策、矿 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色金属研发报告 投资咨询从业证号： Z0018401 联系方式： :010-68569793 铝 5 月报 2025 年 4 月 27 日 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号： F03107034 :chenjing_qh1@china stock.com.cn 关税为铝需求增加不确定 氧化铝供需矛盾转移至矿端 第一部分 前言摘要 行情回顾： 氧化铝价格持续下降带动行业亏损扩大后，氧化铝厂弹性生产产能规模扩大，部分计划 检修至月底或复产时间仍不确定，短期市场检修情况对供需过剩格局带来缓解，4 月下旬国 内外现货成交价格有企稳迹象，而氧化铝厂的检修带动铝土矿供应的过剩更为凸显，市场目 光聚集到矿端。4 月几内亚铝土矿发运等问题消息不断，不过实质性影响较小。 电解铝方面，受美国关税政策拖累，4 月铝价大幅下跌，全球年度供需平衡预期由短缺 转为过剩带动铝价重心下移，虽然国内 4 月表观消费超预期，但难改全年过剩预期。铝消费 强现实弱预期带动沪铝月差扩大，铝锭进口亏损从 1700 余元收窄至 1100 元附近。 行情展望： 氧化铝减产检修后，供需矛盾转移至矿端，预计后续铝土矿开工发运相关信息将更加频 繁出现 ...

"20% 的增长：我们梦想着这样的数字，但我们认为这是一个糟糕的数字，因为它没有反映我们所 看到的现实，"佩恩说。"去年增长的基础非常脆弱且不可持续，以至于我们真的不相信这是真 的。" 他补充道，晶圆厂利用率等关键指标全年都保持疲软，"除了最前沿的领域。" 2025 年预测：熊市 +6%，牛市 +16% 随着我们进入 2025 年，佩恩表示他预计今年还会再出现两位数的增长，但"我们认为这是一个人 为的数字"。 库存过剩，市场价值增长仍然由平均售价驱动，而非销量驱动。虽然平均售价一直在下降，但这次 更像是向下调整，而非暴跌。 佩恩说："当我们观察季度增长率模式时，我们得到的数字看起来像是12%，而最终可能达到6%到 16%之间的范围，具体取决于具体情况。" 这一增长将转化为2025年芯片市场的价值超过7060亿 美元。 "尽管数据利好，但下行周期尚未结束，真正的复苏仍有很长的路要走，"他表示，"复苏基础脆 弱。" 佩恩表示，芯片市场存在周期性，这是常有的警告，但这完全是记忆造成的。"（半导体）行业之 所以具有周期性，是因为产能和需求永远无法匹配。这并非周期性的原因。它与终端市场无关，与 地理区域无关，与产品无关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract rising 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The industry is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased. The PMI is declining, and the copper market is in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The processing fee is recovering slowly, and CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [4][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper's main contract rose 1.21% to close at 76,140 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors from the Russia - Ukraine war and the macro - economic situation affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11,330 tons to 171,611 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2023, the copper market is in a tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2024. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory remains at a high level, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is recovering slowly [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific information provided. - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific information provided.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a stabilization and potential recovery in milk prices in 2025, which could lead to improved performance [6][9]. - The company has a strong backing from major shareholders, including Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 56.36% stake, ensuring a stable demand for its raw milk business [6][18]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the company's profitability, heavily influenced by raw milk prices and feed costs [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.33 billion, 13.69 billion, and 14.11 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%, 2.65%, and 3.06% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 252 million, 432 million, and 727 million CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses in 2024 [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.179 CNY in 2024 to 0.032 CNY in 2025, and further to 0.092 CNY by 2027 [5][7]. Business Overview - The company primarily focuses on raw milk sales, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from long-term contracts with major clients like Mengniu and New Hope Dairy [6][26]. - The company has expanded its operations to 47 farms across 13 provinces, with a total of 491,200 dairy cows, of which 51.08% are mature cows [6][21]. - New business segments, including feed and breeding solutions, are being developed, contributing to revenue diversification [6][22]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report employs a comparable company price-to-book (PB) valuation method, suggesting a target price of 1.26 HKD per share for the next year, representing a 12.4% upside from the current price [7][9]. - The average PB ratios for comparable companies are projected to be 0.95, 0.80, and 0.69 for 2025-2027 [7][9]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 2% and 0.5% year-on-year growth in raw milk sales volume for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of -2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [8][9]. - The cost of raw milk is projected to be 2.51 CNY/kg in 2025, with feed costs contributing significantly to overall expenses [8][9].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大 数 据（www.gogudata.com） 美国 "对等"关税震撼全球金融市场。隔夜，美股 三大股指均刷新近 5年来最大单日跌幅纪录 ， 美元指数一日暴跌近 2%，10年期美债收益 率 盘中一度跌破 4%，创下自去年10月以来的最低水平。 但黄金稳如泰山。 昨日， COMEX黄金下跌不足1%，现价超3130美元/盎司，较年初的2640美元仍上涨18.8%，引发关注。 此前疯狂的铜也崩了，昨日大跌 4.5%，但今年以来仍大涨19.75%（期间最大涨幅高达34%），压过黄金之表现。 那么，接下来的铜怎么看？又孕育着什么机会呢？ 01 今年 3月26日，美铜刷新历史新高，伦铜则超过10000美元，随后迎来一波剧烈调整。而此前轰轰烈烈的大涨，又是为何？我们不妨分阶段复 盘一下背后的驱动因素。 去年 11月初至12月，国际铜价迎来一波流畅下跌，回到当年8月担忧美国经济衰退时的水平。彼时，市场情绪悲观，交易 特朗普 上台，会兑 现竞选承诺，对外普征高额关税，扰动全球经济增长，进而影响铜需求。 翻年之后，铜价止跌快速上行（ 1月2日-1月16日），其核心逻辑是 市场对特朗普关税政策预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for palm oil is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is currently in a stage of seeking a new balance under the condition of weak supply and demand. The high premium of palm oil is due to factors such as low inventory at the origin, potential demand from Indonesia's B40, India's strong purchases, and adverse weather in Southeast Asia. However, the market will eventually return to rationality. As the demand from Indonesia and India collapses, the current tight balance of palm oil may turn into a short - term supply surplus after the supply recovers. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025Q1 Market Review - In Q1 2025, palm oil prices showed a trend of decline - rise - decline - oscillation. At the beginning of the year, prices continued the decline from December 2024 due to the postponement of Indonesia's B40. Then, due to extreme rainfall at the origin, price rebounds occurred. After the Spring Festival, prices rose significantly but then fell due to India's order cancellations and concerns about Indonesia's B40 implementation. In early March, prices rebounded again but then oscillated within a range [13][14] 3.2 Gradually Returning to a Rational Market: Re - balancing under Weak Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Malaysia: Low Inventory Supports Prices, and a Supply Inflection Point is Approaching - Currently, Malaysian palm oil faces a situation of low production and low inventory. Production has been decreasing since September 2024, mainly affected by drought and heavy rainfall. As of February 2025, the ending inventory was only 151 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40 million tons. The origin has a strong willingness to hold prices. However, production is expected to recover in March, with an estimated increase of 5% - 9% to reach 1.25 - 1.3 million tons. In the second quarter, production will enter a relatively smooth growth season. Exports have been declining, and it is estimated that exports in March will remain at around 1 million tons. Exports are expected to improve in April and return to normal levels in May. Domestic demand is limited, and inventory accumulation may occur from May to June [19][24][34] 3.2.2 Indonesia: Implementing B40 Faces Many Difficulties - Indonesia's production is expected to recover better than Malaysia's, but the actual production in the first quarter was not optimistic due to heavy rainfall. The implementation of B40 is a key variable. In 2025, the biodiesel subsidy policy changed, and the non - PSO sector may face difficulties in achieving the B40 blending ratio. Currently, the biodiesel process is not going well. If B40 is not implemented, Indonesia will have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [43][50][54] 3.2.3 India: Low Import Willingness but Still in Need of Replenishing Stocks - India is the largest palm oil importer. Since the end of the Diwali stocking last year, India's palm oil imports have declined significantly due to the high premium of palm oil compared to soybean oil. As of February, the total inventory of vegetable oils in India was at a three - year low. With the warming weather and low inventory, India has a strong need to replenish stocks, and palm oil will be the main product for replenishment [58][65] 3.2.4 China: Near - term Contradictions Remain, and Long - term Supply Will Improve - The domestic palm oil market has been in a situation of weak supply and demand since the fourth quarter of last year, with low inventory. Currently, due to the strong price - holding intention at the origin, the import profit is inverted, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. In April, the inventory is expected to decline further, but it is expected to increase from May, and the inventory inflection point will appear in May [69][74] 3.3 Market Judgment and Suggestions - In the second quarter, the origin's quotes are expected to first decline and then continue to oscillate. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the beginning of April, and pay attention to short - term 5 - 9 reverse spreads, expanding the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contracts, and expanding the spread of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contracts. The price range for the 05 contract is estimated to be between 8,200 yuan and 9,500 yuan, and for the 09 contract, it is between 7,900 yuan and 8,800 yuan. After the price returns to a normal range, long - term allocation opportunities for palm oil can be considered [82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The China Coal Industry Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association jointly issued an initiative on February 28, 2025, advocating for controlled coal production to maintain supply-demand balance and stabilize coal prices. The effectiveness of this initiative in stabilizing prices will largely depend on improvements in demand and inventory reduction [4][11] - As of February 28, 2025, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29 CNY/ton. The report anticipates that coal prices may approach a bottom as coal companies are expected to unite in production control to support prices [4][12] - The report highlights that the current downtrend in coal prices is influenced by weak downstream demand and emphasizes the need for demand-side stimulus policies to achieve a fundamental turning point in the market [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 1.08% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points. The thermal coal index fell by 1.03%, while the coking coal index dropped by 0.95% [11][15] - The report notes that the coal sector has seen a decline of 17.23% over the past year [19] Price Trends - The report indicates that the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 690 CNY/ton, down 4.03% from the previous week. The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1390 CNY/ton, also reflecting a decrease [35][12] - The report suggests that the current price levels are approaching long-term contract prices, which may lead to a stabilization of the market if production controls are effectively implemented [4][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 27, 2025, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces is 5.371 million tons, a decrease of 11.5% week-on-week. The total coal inventory is 109.438 million tons, down 3.7% from the previous week [28][12] - The report highlights that the supply of coal has increased slightly, with a 2.7% rise in coal supply to 5.235 million tons [28] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, which currently offer attractive dividend yields of 5.4% and 5.6%, respectively, compared to the 10-year government bond yield of 1.7% [4][11] - Suggested stocks include dividend leaders like China Shenhua (A+H) and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy and Xinji Energy [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - In February 2025, the rare earth permanent magnet industry saw a significant increase of 13%, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 10.15 percentage points. The industry's valuation (TTM P/E) rose from 81.66x at the beginning of the month to 92.28x, ending the month at the 98.6% historical high percentile [4][19] - The prices of rare earth raw materials have shown a notable increase, with the average price of mixed rare earth carbonate rising by 11.16% month-on-month to 24,900 CNY/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 12.16% [5] - The demand in downstream sectors remains robust, particularly in the air conditioning and new energy vehicle markets, despite a temporary decline in production due to the Spring Festival [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The industry achieved a relative return of 4% over one month, 2% over three months, and 38% over twelve months, with absolute returns of 7%, 4%, and 51% respectively [3] Raw Material Prices - Significant month-on-month increases in prices for various rare earth materials were observed, including: - Mixed rare earth carbonate: +11.16% to 24,900 CNY/ton - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide: +6.55% to 435,000 CNY/ton - Dysprosium oxide: +3.99% to 1,715 CNY/kg [5][6][7] Downstream Demand - The air conditioning sector experienced a production decline of 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, attributed to the Spring Festival timing, but sales remained strong with an 8.7% increase in total sales [11] - The new energy vehicle sector continued to thrive, with production increasing by 28.96% year-on-year in January 2025 [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while the industry faces overcapacity and competitive pressures, the demand in key sectors like air conditioning and new energy vehicles provides a solid foundation for future growth. The current valuation levels are high, indicating potential overvaluation risks, thus maintaining the "Overweight" rating [13]