Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, showing pressure at the 15,000 level. The tight supply of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The price of nickel is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On August 21, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 230 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,940, down 105. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 21, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in major regions remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of August 21, LME nickel inventory was 209,598, an increase of 252; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588, an increase of 29. The total inventory increased by 281 [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. On August 21, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 118,640, a decrease of 1,129 [19][20]. **Cost** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 21. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 929 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,513 yuan [25]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation and anti - involution policies [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Supply and Demand - As of August 21, PTA production capacity has decreased to 71.6%, down by 4.4% due to various maintenance and unexpected shutdowns [3] - Polyester production capacity has slightly increased to around 90%, up by 0.6%, with terminal operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to improve [3] - Downstream raw material inventory is concentrated at 10-20 days, with some exceeding one month, indicating a buildup in anticipation of demand [3] Price and Profitability - On August 21, PTA spot processing fees reached approximately 214 CNY/ton, with futures processing fees at 227 CNY/ton for TA2509 and 347 CNY/ton for TA2601 [2] - PTA prices surged due to unexpected shutdowns of 500,000 tons of PTA facilities in South China, leading to a significant increase in polyester chain futures [1] Market Outlook - The market outlook for PTA is cautiously optimistic due to improved supply-demand dynamics and the upcoming traditional demand season in September and October [4] - However, the introduction of new PTA capacity from Hailun Petrochemical may limit the upward potential of PTA prices in the medium term [4] - Overall, the short-term support for PTA prices remains strong, but the driving factors are limited, with a focus on monitoring resistance around 4900 CNY [4]

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices rose overnight, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by 6.014 million barrels due to increased exports and decreased imports. The negotiation of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has stalled again, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil shipped from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing continuously. The heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June despite the decline in Russia's shipment volume. The expectation of increased supply of heavy resources from the Middle East still exerts relative pressure on the market [20]. - After the US resumed importing oil from Venezuela, the diversion effect on North Asian resources is expected to gradually emerge. Sinopec's cumulative asphalt production has shown an expanding year-on-year decline due to the increase in deep processing load. As the "Golden September and Silver October" construction peak season approaches, road demand is expected to pick up. The spot price of asphalt is supported by the low year-on-year basis in South China and the center of the spot price in Shandong has moved down. The unilateral price of BU follows the fluctuation of SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the October contract expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - The overseas market of liquefied petroleum gas has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the arrival volume of imports and the release of refineries have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by the fall of crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be concerned. The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that officials generally supported keeping interest rates unchanged, believing that interest rates are not far from the neutral level. Recent progress in Russia-Ukraine related talks has led to insufficient driving force for the continuous upward movement of gold. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper rebounded overnight after a period of oscillating decline, closing slightly below the MA60 moving average. The content of the Fed's minutes basically met market expectations, and most members were still more concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The price of domestic spot copper was reported at 78,770 yuan yesterday. The spread between refined and scrap copper has shrunk to within 1,000 yuan, the operating rate of the scrap copper recycling industry is low, and refined copper consumption has replaced scrap copper. The copper market is still cautiously evaluating the risk of economic growth, and short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper should be held [3]. - SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. The downstream operating rate has stabilized, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off-season may be approaching. The inventory is likely to remain at a relatively low level this year. SHFE aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy oscillates following SHFE aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 19,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. It has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price, and the cross-variety spread between the spot and AL may gradually narrow [5]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the SHFE warehouse receipts have been continuously increasing. The supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot indexes in various regions are declining. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and the 3,000 yuan integer mark provides support [6]. - Constrained by overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally regarded as facing pressure on the upside during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policy. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rebounds should be maintained [7]. - Due to the constraints on overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally expected to face pressure during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policies. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [7]. - The loss of recycled lead has deepened, and there are more enterprises reducing or suspending production. The SMM refined-scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lead price. Whether the weak consumption can form a bottom-up negative feedback to force the upstream raw material prices down is the key to the decline of the lead price. Given the different tax policies in various regions and the still existing difficulty in cross-provincial transportation of scrap batteries, the price of scrap batteries remains resilient. The downside space of SHFE lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. As the start of the school season approaches, it is advisable to hold long positions with a stop-loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - SHFE nickel is in the middle to late stage of the rebound, and investors are advised to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive weeks. However, the downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced stainless steel products remains poor. In addition, the production schedule of stainless steel in August is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. There is still some uncertainty in the market. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,200 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 125 yuan. The price support from the upstream has slightly rebounded recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel-iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Attention should be paid to the signs of the end of de-stocking [9]. - The tin price oscillated overnight. The inventory of LME tin for concentrated delivery has increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium has converged to $32. The market divergence in the tin market has increased. On the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively strong. In July, the physical import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased again, the customs clearance of Burmese tin ore was at a low level, and the domestic tin raw materials were in short supply, and the overseas inventory was low. On the other hand, most base metal varieties are sensitive to long-term demand concerns. Short-term long positions should be held with reference to the MA60 moving average [10]. Group 4: Chemicals - The polycrystalline silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has triggered emotional fluctuations. The "market-oriented" clearance orientation has adjusted the expectations of the capacity policy, but it has reiterated that "selling below cost price" is not allowed, so the downside space of the price is limited. The previous rebound high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level, and the valuation support at the bottom of the market is about 48,000 yuan/ton. In summary, the market is still in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic prevails over fundamental logic" [12]. - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting has reiterated the resistance to low-price competition, and the expectation of policy support still exists. The supply and demand in the fundamentals have both increased, but the improvement is limited. The price in Xinjiang has dropped by another 200 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton (SMM). The market is expected to continue to oscillate. If the policy expectations decline in the future, there will be a certain risk of correction [13]. - The urea market is affected by the news of the third batch of quotas and the relaxation of export country restrictions. The agricultural demand is in the off-season, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is mainly focused on high-phosphorus fertilizers, which generally has a limited boost to the urea market. The production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. There are both potential exports and goods gathering at ports, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The short-term supply and demand of urea are loose, and the market is greatly affected by emotions and export news [23]. - The methanol inventory at ports has been continuously accumulating. The import arrival volume has slightly decreased, the operating rate of MTO plants in the East China coastal area has been continuously low, and there are no plans for复产 in the short term. The port inventory may break through the historical high at the end of the third quarter. The operating load of methanol plants has slightly increased, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased. The inland market is relatively stronger than the port market. The short-term supply and demand weakness in the coastal area will continue. Attention should be paid to the situation of overseas plants and market emotions [24]. - The price of straight-run benzene fluctuated significantly yesterday due to news stimulation and closed with a negative line at night. Recently, the inventory at the pure benzene port has slightly decreased, the import pressure has been relieved, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and increased downstream demand. The supply and demand may face pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band trading on the monthly spread [25]. - The moving average system of the main contract of styrene futures is intertwined, and the market continues to consolidate. Fundamentally, the cost side provides bottom support for styrene, but there is a lack of unilateral driving force. The plants are operating stably, and the market supply is sufficient. The production of downstream three-S products is expected to continue to increase slightly, and they maintain purchasing on dips, but the boost is limited [26]. - The supply of propylene is relatively abundant, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The differentiation of enterprise shipments has intensified, and the offers are mainly slightly discounted. High-end transactions are relatively limited. The supply pressure of polyethylene still exists, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory and are cautious about price increases. The demand side is slowly following up, providing limited support to the market. The supply side of polypropylene still has support. Although there are new plants about to be put into operation, their short-term impact on the market is limited. The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the lack of terminal orders has led to the downstream enterprises maintaining low raw material inventory. The peak-season stocking has not yet started, and the market trading atmosphere is light [27]. - PVC is operating weakly. India has issued a final anti-dumping duty ruling on imported PVC, with a significant increase for mainland China, increasing the export pressure. Although there are more maintenance activities, the overall supply remains at a high level. The overall demand is still insufficient, and the social inventory has been continuously increasing since July. The profit of the chlor-alkali integration is fair, and the cost support is not obvious. With poor demand and high production, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is operating strongly. The non-aluminum downstream in Shandong is taking delivery well, and the purchasing enthusiasm is high. The inventory continues to decrease. A factory in Shandong has started production, and the operating load has increased. The demand from the alumina industry provides fair support. The recent restocking sentiment of the non-aluminum downstream has increased. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking. Supported by short-term restocking demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, the supply pressure remains, and the expected increase in price is limited [28]. - The PX and PTA markets were relatively strong yesterday due to news influence and closed with doji lines at night. The short-term market supply is stable, and there are signs of improvement in the weaving industry, with an expected increase in demand. The supply and demand of PX are expected to improve in the third quarter, and the improvement in valuation will be an important upward driving force for the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the direction of oil prices and the rhythm of demand recovery [29]. - The profit of the ethylene glycol industry is poor. If the industry resolves the problem of petrochemical overcapacity through maintenance in the future, there is a large space for the recovery of the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol. However, the impact of news is short-term. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. Recently, the port inventory has been accumulating, the industry operating rate has increased, and there are signs of improvement in demand. The ethylene glycol market is facing both long and short factors. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the policies and the rhythm of the increase in peak-season demand [30]. - The supply and demand of short fibers are stable, and the market is mainly driven by cost. The new production capacity of short fibers this year is limited, and the increase in peak-season demand will boost the industry's expectations. In the medium term, a long position is recommended, and a positive spread trading strategy on the monthly spread can be considered. The processing margin of bottle chips is oscillating at a low level. Overcapacity is a long-term pressure, which will limit the recovery space of the processing margin of bottle chips. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the petrochemical industry [31]. Group 5: Building Materials - The glass market continues to decline. The weak reality persists, and the spot price continues to decline and inventory accumulates. Due to the military parade in September, the processing operations in the Shahe area have been affected. Recently, the production capacity has not fluctuated much, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still weak year-on-year. Although the market is trading on the weak reality, the cost has increased, and it is expected that the price will not break through the previous low [32]. - The soda ash market has fallen sharply. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory at the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain is all high. The weak reality pattern persists. Yuanxing has future production plans, and the supply shows an increasing trend. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have recently improved, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened, leading to a slight increase in the rigid demand for heavy soda ash. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply of soda ash remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels [34]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The latest good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and it is still at a historically high level for the same period. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main US soybean-producing areas will be generally normal, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. In China, the spot price of soybean meal has increased significantly recently, and the market is continuously concerned about the supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Currently, the sales progress of Brazilian soybeans has exceeded 80%, and the premium is high. Given the unclear situation of Sino-US trade, there are still uncertainties in the far-month supply. The oil mill crushing rate in China is stable, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is limited. Currently, positive factors are gradually emerging. After the Sino-US-Swedish talks, although the mutual addition of tariffs has been postponed, the tariff issue still exists. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors should wait for the callback to enter the market [35]. - The US crop inspection shows that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska has increased year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2003. The number of soybean pods in Indiana has slightly decreased year-on-year but is still higher than the average of the past three years. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week strongly urging the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market, which is crucial for US soybeans. The market expects that the US Environmental Protection Agency will soon make a key decision on the biofuel exemption for refineries. The Trump administration granted exemptions to small refineries in the previous term, and the market is worried that the exemptions will occur again, which has suppressed the price of US soybean oil. The domestic soybean and palm oil markets showed a pattern of reducing positions and correcting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the movement of funds and the guidance of relevant policies. In the medium term, overseas palm oil is in a production reduction cycle. In the long term, the long-term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips, but pay attention to the risk of large price fluctuations after reaching high levels [36]. - The overseas rapeseed market fluctuated little overnight. As new-season crops will be listed one after another and there are few variables

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but there are still contradictions between high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption. The demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" remains a key variable [3]. - The styrene market is generally loose, with new production capacity being continuously released. Although there are signs of marginal improvement, new production capacity and the weakening basis point to the problems of oversupply and difficulty in destocking [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Price**: On August 20, the styrene main contract closed up 0.82% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 (+54 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.37% at 6,205 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 20, Brent crude oil closed at 61.8 (-1.7 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 65.8 (-0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,070 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% month - on - month destocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% month - on - month destocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% month - on - month destocking [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.1% (+0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 56.7% (+1.7%). The EPS operating rate recovered, and the ABS and PS operating rates continued to increase [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side has been running strongly recently. The supply has increased, and the demand shows structural differentiation. Although the supply - demand balance has marginally improved, there are still problems such as high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [3]. - **Styrene**: The market is generally loose, with new production capacity continuously released. The demand improvement is limited, and the basis weakening reflects the intensification of supply - demand mismatch and weakening market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The styrene futures main contract increased by 0.82%, the pure benzene futures main contract increased by 0.37%, and the styrene basis decreased by 118.52% [6]. - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: Styrene output increased by 2.76%, pure benzene output decreased by 0.18%. Styrene and pure benzene inventories decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene increased, such as the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 14.41% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up naphtha costs. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record high in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position [9].

展望下半年，统计分析13年以来钢材价格的变化趋势来看，9月、10月上涨的年份数量为5，下跌的年份 数量为8，整体季节性特征相对偏弱。 从目前市场运行状态来看，一方面，下游需求仍有一定支撑。从终端反馈来看，8月下半月下游终端订 单有一定的好转。另一方面，钢厂生产维持不温不火局面，原料涨价挤压成品材利润空间的背景下，钢 厂阶段检修有所增多。卓创资讯数据显示，8月第二周主要钢材品种产量1268.33万吨，同比7月下降 13.40万吨，且从情绪端反馈来看，阶段钢厂对9月份整体信心偏弱，排产计划或有所收敛。 综合来看，预计9月钢材需求有望发力，供应压力尚可，供需矛盾阶段或不大，这使得9月钢材价格或表 现相对偏强。10月份，钢材供应端预期发力，需求或整体不足，供需矛盾或导致10月钢价震荡趋弱。但 由于下半年钢价整体震荡趋强态势预期不改，预计10月钢价即使下跌空间也有限。 （作者：赵泽泽，卓创资讯分析师） 2025年下半年以来，国内钢材市场整体有所改观，尤其在政策以及需求端支撑下，钢材市场价格逐渐脱 离近7年的低点。 展望后市，随着"金九银十"传统需求旺季的到来，从钢材供需动态分析，预计9月钢价或表现相对偏 强，10月则可 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the pure benzene and styrene industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Last week, the operating load of pure benzene increased, with no new maintenance capacity and the restart of multiple maintenance devices, leading to a continuous increase in overall supply. With maintenance mostly completed, supply is expected to remain stable in September, still at a relatively high level. In terms of imports, South Korea's exports to China in the first ten days of August decreased significantly month-on-month, and China's imports in August are expected to decline substantially. Downstream demand is at a relatively high level for the same period, but overall downstream profits have declined significantly. In the short term, supply and demand for pure benzene are expected to be strong, but in the long run, poor downstream profits may lead to weakening demand. Particular attention should be paid to the stability of styrene demand. Port inventory of pure benzene has increased, and subsequent destocking is expected, with an upward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZN spread is neutral, and the valuation is also relatively neutral [3] - Styrene: Last week, Fushun Petrochemical carried out maintenance on its styrene unit. Supply is expected to be high in August but may tighten in September due to an increase in maintenance. In terms of demand, multiple PS units increased their loads, and EPS had good sales at low prices, alleviating some inventory pressure. Overall, the comprehensive operating rate of the three downstream S products has rebounded, but current demand remains weak, mainly driven by rigid needs, and raw material inventories are high. In terms of terminal inventory, port inventory remained stable last week, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in August, with a downward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread has declined significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new maintenance plans for pure benzene units, and the current operating rate is at a high level. Supply is expected to continue increasing [3] - Last week, there were no new maintenance devices for pure benzene, and supply is expected to increase. The maintenance of hydrogenated benzene is basically over, and supply is expected to remain at a high level [7][10] - After the peak of pure benzene maintenance has passed, with the commissioning of new devices, supply in August is expected to increase month-on-month [47] Pure Benzene Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high and are expected to remain stable in the short term. However, downstream profit margins are poor, limiting demand potential. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the situation of end - users should be observed [3] Pure Benzene Month - Spread - Pure benzene is expected to undergo destocking, and the paper futures month - spread structure is close to flat [3] Styrene Supply - Current supply is high, but may contract in September due to an increase in maintenance [3] - Last week, the styrene operating rate increased. Although Fushun Petrochemical's unit was under maintenance, overall supply remains high. Maintenance will increase in September, and supply may tighten [52] - With the commissioning of new devices, styrene supply is expected to continue to rise [87] Styrene Demand - The operating rate of the three downstream S products remains stable but is weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable [3] - Currently, the three S products are in the off - season. Overall demand shows some resilience, but inventories of the three S products are high, and subsequent demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the destocking situation of the three S products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [87] Styrene Month - Spread - Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations, the C structure is expected to be maintained [3] External Market Support - The arbitrage window between the US and Asia remains closed. In the first ten days of August, China imported 38,725 tons of pure benzene from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease and lower than the same period last year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The finished products will focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, while the aluminum products will focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was weakly adjusted. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that most officials did not support an interest - rate cut at the last meeting. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting to see if it will counter the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with a slight increase. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is difficult to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of industries such as home appliances and photovoltaics has slowed down, and some aluminum export orders have declined, with the construction industry still showing a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery. In different sectors, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [3] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro - interest - rate cut expectation is repeated. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent inventory - consumption trend needs attention. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upper limit [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average. The supply shortage of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The cost line has slightly increased, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the shipping cost is firm. The nickel iron price has increased steadily, and the cost line has risen slightly. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 20, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,060 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel price was 15,045 yuan, down 15 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **不锈钢**: On August 20, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 20, the LME nickel inventory was 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 22,559 tons, a decrease of 282 tons [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 20, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt was 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons month - on - month [18][19]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **镍 ore**: On August 20, the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni0.9% grade was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. - **镍 iron**: On August 20, the price of high - nickel iron was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,420 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [22]. 3.4 Production Costs - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,510 yuan [24]. 3.5 Import Costs - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 121,436 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The expected consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated yesterday. In the afternoon, boosted by macro - news, the market rose rapidly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. With low processing margins recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the market negotiation was active. Affected by the news of South Korea cutting naphtha cracking capacity and the commodity market, the market soared in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low from August to September, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term ethylene glycol market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with obvious support below. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [8]. - Factors: The supply - demand expectation of PTA is improved due to planned maintenance in August, and there are expectations of demand recovery as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. However, the profit margins of each link in the industrial chain are still under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is cautious. Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: The opening price was lower, and it rose in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened, and there was some replenishment by polyester factories. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 2. The net short position increased. The processing margin is low, some plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. The oil price pressure leads to a lack of cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - MEG: The price rose significantly on Wednesday. The price was sorted out in the morning and soared in the afternoon. The port inventory is expected to remain low from August to September, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [8]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA: The spot price is 4686, the 01 - contract basis is - 92, showing a premium on the futures. The PTA factory inventory is 3.66 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - MEG: The spot price is 4502, the 01 - contract basis is 25, showing a discount on the futures. The inventory in East China is 52.74 tons, an increase of 5.52 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, improving the supply - demand expectation. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, there are expectations of demand recovery [9]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - Main logic and risk points: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted during the market rebound [9]. 6. PTA供需平衡表 The table shows the PTA supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, polyester production, demand, and inventory changes [10]. 7.乙二醇供需平衡表 The table shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including EG production, import, consumption, port inventory, and supply - demand differences [11]. 8.价格相关 - Multiple charts show the price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, basis, and price differences of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2020 - 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. 9.库存分析 Multiple charts show the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Wind [39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49]. 10.聚酯上游开工 Charts show the opening rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 - 2025 [50][51][52][53]. 11.聚酯下游开工 Charts show the opening rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][55][56][57]. 12. PTA加工费 A chart shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [58][59][60]. 13. MEG利润 Charts show the production profits of different MEG production methods from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind and Mysteel. The profit calculation is mainly for trend observation [61][62][63]. 14.聚酯纤维利润 Charts show the production profits of polyester short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [64][65][66][67][68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]