Group 1 - The precious metals market continues its strong upward trend after Christmas, with silver reaching an all-time high and gold approaching its historical peak [1][4] - Silver prices surged by 2.2% to $73.44 per ounce, marking the fifth consecutive day of increases, while gold is nearing its historical high of $4525 [1][4] - Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have heightened demand for precious metals as a safe haven, compounded by the U.S. blockade on oil transport vessels [1][4] Group 2 - Economist Jim Rickards predicts that gold could reach $10,000 and silver could hit $200 by 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and stagnant supply [7][8] - Institutional investor demand, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds, is expected to further drive up prices, influenced by geopolitical factors such as the attempt to seize Russian assets [7][8] - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the physical delivery market, with a significant disparity between paper silver and physical silver [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar index, and increased demand for currency exchange from domestic enterprises as the year-end approaches [3][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with inflation cooling and signs of a slowing labor market, leading investors to bet on two potential rate cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized between 3.9% and 4.2% since September, reflecting market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Weakening US Dollar Index: The US dollar index has fallen to around 97.80, marking a 9.8% decline for the year, the worst annual performance since 2017, which has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the RMB [3]. - Increased Corporate Currency Exchange Demand: As the year-end approaches, domestic foreign trade enterprises are increasing their currency exchange needs for financial settlements and cash flow, leading to a seasonal strengthening of the RMB. Although November's exchange rate did not show significant increases, the overall trade surplus for the year has prompted enterprises to exchange dollars for RMB earlier than usual [5]. Group 2: Implications of RMB Strengthening - Positive Impact on Domestic Capital Markets: The strengthening of the RMB is expected to benefit Chinese assets significantly, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets and potentially allowing for more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - Increased Cross-Border Investment Costs: The appreciation of the RMB may lead to higher currency exchange costs for cross-border investments, which could affect the final returns for investors in instruments like Hong Kong Stock Connect and mutual funds [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - RMB Exchange Rate Projections: Analysts predict that the RMB will hover around the 7.0 mark against the US dollar through 2026, with potential appreciation towards the 6.7 to 6.8 range if the US dollar index remains weak [6][7]. - Policy Stability and Market Expectations: The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate's stability, aiming to guide market expectations and prevent one-sided trends in the currency market [6][7]. - Long-Term Trends: Analysts suggest that the RMB may decouple from the US dollar index in the future, with fundamental and policy support for the RMB's strength, while also noting that the underlying economic fundamentals will be crucial for sustained appreciation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly in December, with the offshore yuan surpassing the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since September 2024, indicating a trend of appreciation in the currency [1]. Factors Driving Yuan Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar index, and increased demand for currency conversion from domestic enterprises as the year-end approaches [3][6]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with inflation cooling and signs of a slowing labor market, leading investors to bet on two potential rate cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized between 3.9% and 4.2% since September, reflecting market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Weakening US Dollar Index: The US dollar index has dropped to around 97.80, marking a 9.8% decline for the year, the worst annual performance since 2017, which has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the yuan [3]. - Increased Corporate Currency Conversion Demand: As the year-end approaches, domestic foreign trade enterprises are increasing their demand for currency conversion to meet financial settlement and cash flow needs, leading to a seasonal strengthening of the yuan [6]. Implications for Domestic Capital Markets - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to have a positive impact on domestic capital markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets and potentially providing more room for monetary policy easing [6]. - Analysts suggest that the strengthening yuan indicates foreign investors' confidence in yuan assets, which could drive up asset prices [6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the yuan's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the 7.0 mark, with predictions suggesting it may rise to the 6.7 to 6.8 range by the end of 2026 if the US dollar index remains weak [7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level, indicating that rapid appreciation may prompt financial authorities to intervene to stabilize fluctuations [7]. - Analysts predict that the US dollar index may continue to weaken, potentially falling to 96 by the end of 2026, although the pace of decline may be more moderate compared to this year [7][8].

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收跌0.39%，沪银主力收涨2.64%，铂金主力收涨4.51%，钯金主力收涨跌7.65%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美委、泰柬 、俄乌等地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水平。美 国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高 位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置， 可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下 次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期 强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged, breaking the $4500 per ounce mark for the first time, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 70% [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On December 24, the London spot gold price reached a historic high of over $4500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70% [2][3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported that the spot gold price rose to 1017 yuan per gram, while gold jewelry prices exceeded 1400 yuan per gram, reaching 1410 yuan per gram at major retailers [2][10]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that gold may achieve its best annual performance since 1979, supported by continued central bank demand and a likely sustained loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Global central bank purchases, particularly from emerging market countries, have significantly influenced gold prices, creating structural demand for gold as a means of asset preservation and geopolitical risk hedging [3][5]. - The current global economic transformation, characterized by a shift to loose monetary policy and heightened economic concerns, has made gold a preferred asset for risk-averse investors, leading to increased global demand [3][5]. Group 3: Performance of Other Precious Metals - The rise in gold prices has attracted attention to alternative investments such as silver, platinum, and palladium, which have seen price increases surpassing that of gold [4][5]. - Silver prices have surged nearly 50% in the fourth quarter, breaking the $70 per ounce mark, while platinum and palladium have also experienced over 30% increases in the past month [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bull market for precious metals will continue, driven by both financial attributes and industrial demand, with gold expected to remain a key asset amid global economic uncertainties [7][9]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could reach $4800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, while JPMorgan has raised its long-term target to $5055 per ounce [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 529.05 yuan/gram (up 29.65 yuan), and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 686.95 yuan/gram (down 43.85 yuan) - The main contract holdings for platinum were 3,179.00 hands (down 277.00 hands), and for palladium were 10,387.00 hands (up 90.00 hands) [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 591.25 yuan/gram (down 15.74 yuan), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 417.00 yuan/gram (down 41.00 yuan) - The platinum main contract basis was - 95.70 yuan/gram (down 45.39 yuan), and the palladium main contract basis was - 112.05 yuan/gram (up 2.85 yuan) [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9,966.00 contracts (down 243.00 contracts), and the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3,003.00 contracts (down 342.00 contracts) - The total platinum supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80 tons), and the total palladium supply in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00 tons) - The total platinum demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60 tons), and the total palladium demand in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00 tons) [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.90 (down 0.36), the VIX volatility index was 14.00, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94% (up 0.00%) - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, with consumer spending being the main driver. The core PCE price index in the third quarter rose 2.9%. US core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded in October - US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and markets perform well - Gold prices have risen more than 71% this year, and silver prices have risen about 147% - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 5.0% [2] Industry News - The platinum and palladium markets hit the daily limit for several consecutive trading days before. Today, their trends diverged. The platinum 2606 contract rebounded strongly after hitting a low in the morning, while the palladium 2606 contract was still under pressure after hitting the daily limit down - Tight physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum recently. The London platinum lease rate continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continued to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction - The large domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new - energy vehicles, with the market shifting from short supply to oversupply. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]

新华网北京12月25日电（刘睿祎 梁栋飞）近期，人民币兑美元汇率不断走强。12月25日，离岸人民币 对美元升破7.0整数关口，截至发稿时，达6.9978；在岸人民币对美元也探至7.0133。另外，中国外汇交 易中心12月25日受权公布人民币对美元的市场汇价，即人民币对美元市场中间价为7.0392，上调79个基 点。 他表示，美联储降息将继续主导美元指数走势。尽管明年美联储降息节奏需视美国经济后续走势而定， 但在新任美联储主席有可能态度偏"鸽"、更偏向用货币政策来保增长的情况下，降息幅度或超过今年9 月的点阵图预测。 "从2019年和2024年经验来看，美元指数在降息兑现后，均有所反弹，但在数月后转向下行。若以此类 推，特别是再考虑到美联储的降息空间或明显大于其他非美央行，美元指数的下行趋势或大致于明年一 季度或二季度正式开启。同时，美国经济仍领跑主要发达经济体，对于美元有支撑。"温彬说。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，10月中旬以来，人民币经历了一波快速升值，但结汇率并没有显 著走高。其团队研报分析称，10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行重启逆周期因子、不断调升的 中间价对升值有一定引导。而12月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to profit-taking ahead of the Christmas holiday, but the overall bullish trend remains supported by central bank gold purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][5] - The U.S. economy and employment performance have delayed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations to April and September, which may impact gold prices [2] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will rebalance gold and silver weights in early January, potentially leading to technical selling in these metals [2] Group 2 - The recent strong upward movement in gold prices is driven by a deep restructuring of the global monetary credit system, with central banks increasing gold reserves and geopolitical uncertainties raising safe-haven premiums [5] - The Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts are lowering the cost of holding gold, contributing to a structural bull market led by central banks [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with potential price targets between $4550 and $4600, while support levels are identified around $4445 to $4455 [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by multiple factors including concerns over the US dollar's credibility and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4][5]. - On October 24, 2023, London spot gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold prices reaching 1,017 yuan per gram [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices has led to increased interest in alternative investment options, with silver, platinum, and palladium prices rising significantly, with silver prices increasing nearly 50% in Q4 2023 alone [1][4]. Group 2 - Analysts attribute the substantial price increases in precious metals to a combination of factors, including the expansion of US debt, which has made gold and other precious metals appear as safer assets [2][5]. - The industrial demand for silver and platinum has been a key driver of their price increases, with silver being recognized as essential for global economic transformation due to its excellent conductivity and thermal properties [2][5]. - The rapid growth of industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence has further supported the demand for silver, contributing to its price surge [2][5].

Group 1: Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [1][6] - Continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million, seasonally adjusted [1][6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, partly due to technical factors related to government shutdowns [1][6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3%, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates [2][7] - The economic growth is attributed to deregulation and capital spending, leading to a "no-inflation boom" [2][7] - If the economy maintains a 3% growth rate, it could result in lower inflation, with the Fed able to adjust rates based on neutral rate estimates [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index showed slight gains, trading around 97.90, supported by positive jobless claims data [3][8] - The euro experienced a slight decline, trading around 1.1780, influenced by profit-taking and the strength of the dollar [4][9] - The British pound also saw minor losses, trading around 1.3500, affected by the dollar's performance and expectations regarding interest rates [5][10]