Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - Factors such as asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - Gold will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - Many commodities in different sectors are expected to oscillate due to various factors such as trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances. Some commodities are expected to decline or rise based on specific supply and demand situations [1]. Summary by Industry Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: It is expected to oscillate. After the holiday opening, avoid chasing high prices and focus on the opportunity for small and medium - cap stocks to release elasticity. Consider long positions mainly in CSI 1000 (IM) [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upside space [1]. - **Gold**: Oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term high - level range, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Oscillating. Sino - US talks will start, and the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but the copper price has clearly rebounded, so the price may oscillate. Focus on the positive arbitrage opportunity of Shanghai copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. Global trade frictions are still uncertain, and with the arrival of the domestic wet season, the domestic inventory reduction speed may slow down, so the aluminum price will oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved, and the short - term price may rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. Under the favorable domestic policies, the market sentiment has improved, but the result of Sino - US tariff negotiations is unknown, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The low inventory in the near - term supports the zinc price, but the fundamental upside pressure is large. Focus on short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the premium of nickel ore is high, and the nickel price will oscillate. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowinning nickel. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and operate within the range. Be vigilant about changes in domestic and foreign macro and resource - country policies [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. The domestic pro - growth policies boost the market sentiment. Sino - US talks will be held, and pay attention to the progress of relevant news. Indonesia's resource tax policy has been implemented, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, the price of nickel iron has slightly corrected, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand expectation is weak under the background of trade frictions. In the short - term, the stainless - steel futures will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see and operate within the range. The industrial sector should pay attention to policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered the low - valuation range, and the demand has not improved and the inventory pressure has not been relieved [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the futures are at a discount to the spot, so the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish. Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream raw - material inventory is at a high level. At the low price, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases [1]. Black Metals Sector - **Rebar**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. Trade disputes intensify the pressure on the export chain. Plates may bear the brunt, the short - term risk preference is slightly poor, and the opening price will dive [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Tariff policies affect the market sentiment, and iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillating. The inventory is high, but the cost has support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. The cost has loosened, but the production area has reduced production, and the social inventory is neutral [1]. - **Glass**: Oscillating. The demand is released in a pulsed manner. Pay attention to the demand performance. The near - term positions are gradually decreasing, and the long - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating. Alkali plants are resuming production, and the demand has increased, but the medium - term supply is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillating. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus, and they are short - allocated in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunity of positive arbitrage in the futures - cash market and selling hedging after the price rebounds to a premium [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. The rebound of crude oil prices may make it difficult for oils and fats to decline smoothly. The fundamentals are bearish. Wait for the opportunity to short after the price rebounds. It is recommended to do long in the YP spread [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. There is currently a lack of weather themes for US soybeans. The large volume of soybean arrivals and the intention of Sino - US talks may be bearish risks, and the price is in a unilateral oscillation [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting period. There may be an anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed recently, which is expected to bring large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider doing long in the volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. If crude oil continues to search for the bottom, the cotton - spinning demand may be weak, and the substitution between chemical fiber and cotton will also put pressure on the cotton price. Recently, the prices of overseas agricultural products have fallen from high levels, the cotton - grain price ratio has repaired upwards, and the substitution effect of US cotton planting has weakened marginally, which is bearish for the long - term US cotton price [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Overseas, the production reduction in Brazil and the lower - than - expected production increase in India have raised concerns about international supply shortages, and the price of raw sugar has risen strongly recently. Domestically, the sugar - making season is approaching the end, the production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has reached a historical high, which suppresses the upside space of the domestic market [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. In the short - term, affected by the impact of new wheat listing and the expectation of policy - based grain release, the corn futures price faces certain pressure. The expected trend is oscillating, and the bullish expectation remains unchanged under the tightening medium - term supply and demand. It is recommended to wait for the callback to do long [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Bearish. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas recently is conducive to sowing, the Brazilian discount is generally oscillating weakly, there is no obvious bullish driver in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Wait for the further release of spot pressure [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The decline in the overseas offer of paper pulp weakens the cost support, and the domestic demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has slightly decreased recently. It is recommended to hold the position and wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillating. The volume of log arrivals remains high, the inventory is generally at a high level, the price of terminal products has fallen, and there is no short - term bullish factor. The current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Pigs**: Oscillating. With the continuous restoration of pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase, the futures price has an obvious expectation, the discount to the spot is large, and there is no bright spot in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Affected by the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the accelerated production increase of OPEC +, and the weakening global demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Oscillating. The cost is dragging down, the inventory is still low but continuously accumulating, the demand is slowly recovering, and the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan is worth looking forward to this year [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. The expectation of production release is increasing, the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating, and affected by the purchase - storage policy [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Bearish. The cost is suppressing, the fundamentals are loose, the spread between high - and low - end butadiene rubber continues to widen, and it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **PTA**: The intensive maintenance of upstream PX plants has significantly repaired the internal - external spread of PX. Due to the profit repair of PTA, the procurement demand for PX has significantly strengthened, the floating price has started to strengthen, and domestic PTA and reforming plants plan to overhaul more plants in May. The high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. Ethylene glycol plants are under maintenance, large - scale plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based plants have started to be overhauled [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Bullish. The slightly tight situation of PTA has strengthened the cost support for short - fiber, and in the case of a high basis, short - fiber has shown strong performance [1]. - **Styrene**: The weak demand for pure benzene has caused the price to continue to decline. The decline in the profit of reforming plants has clearly affected the plant load. After the sharp decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand for pure benzene has continued to weaken [1]. - **Urea**: Bullish. The market expectation is favorable, the sentiment is strong, and the urea market is likely to rise firmly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The basis is high, and the replenishment is active. In the short - term, the methanol price will oscillate within the range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weakly oscillating [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. The macro - risk is large, crude oil is oscillating weakly, the orders are insufficient, the market sentiment is weak, and PE will oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Some previously overhauled plants have resumed operation, the demand is stable, the trade war has intensified, the market sentiment is weak, and PP will oscillate [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. The fundamentals are weak, the macro - risk has intensified, and it is difficult to form a trend - upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The demand during the May Day holiday was average, the driving force for the increase in spot prices was insufficient, and the futures price oscillated weakly [1]. Other Sector - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market has strong expectations but weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling at the price - support point due to the price reduction. As the futures price begins to show a safety margin, you can try to go long in the peak - season contracts with a light position. Continuously pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread for arbitrage [1].

Core Viewpoint - The global goods trade is expected to face significant contraction by 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and trade uncertainties, with a projected decline of 0.2% to 1.5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. has implemented a "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all imports, with higher rates for specific countries, aiming to address trade deficits and enhance economic security [2] - The tariff increases are anticipated to weaken U.S. consumer demand, with over 70% of U.S. businesses expecting negative impacts on trade [2] Group 2: Shipping Industry Response - The decline in demand on the trans-Pacific route has led shipping companies to reallocate excess capacity to the Asia-Europe route, with approximately 8 large container ships (totaling about 100,000 TEU) shifting from the U.S.-China route to the Asia-Europe route [3][4] - Major shipping companies are actively managing capacity through voyage cancellations and temporary idling of vessels to mitigate the effects of overcapacity and stabilize market prices [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shipping market is expected to remain weak in the short term (May-June), but there may be signs of stabilization as seasonal demand increases [8] - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with potential oversupply due to new vessel deliveries and a projected container trade growth rate of only 3%, leading to continued pressure on rates, especially on the Asia-Europe route [9] - The futures market for container shipping rates has shown a pessimistic trend, with significant declines since the introduction of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, indicating ongoing pressure on rates [10]

21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭、实习记者范书晴北京报道 谈及美国对欧盟加征的关税，他表示，这无法在短时间内促使德国企业对美投资激增。一方面，很多大 型德国企业早已在美国布局，另一方面，很多中小企业往往缺乏对外投资的资金或人力。因此，他呼吁 美欧在90天关税暂停期后尽快找到解决方案，以避免各方陷入双输的局面。 "中国市场的竞争非常激烈。以汽车行业为例，中国制造商在质量和技术创新上进步显著。我们在机 械、可再生技术等领域也看到了类似趋势。这是一个发展迅速的市场，有时快到我们在德国甚至欧洲的 合作伙伴难以完全察觉或理解。"5月7日，中国德国商会华北及东北地区执行董事兼董事会成员欧阳利 文(Oliver Oehms)在北京接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时说道。 当天，中国德国商会在北京发布最新一期商业信心调查报告。报告指出，美国政府掀起的新一轮关税战 给在华德国企业带来了诸多障碍。尽管如此，半数受访企业仍计划扩大在华投资，超过三分之一的企业 选择加快本地化进程，以此作为应对持续贸易紧张局势的战略性举措。 据新华社报道，当地时间6日下午，德国联邦议院进行了总理选举第二轮投票。德国联盟党总理候选人 弗里德里希·默茨在第二轮投票 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆★ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market is under pressure due to weak terminal demand, high supply, and negative feedback concerns [2][3][4][5] - The prices of various commodities are expected to be weak and volatile, with different influencing factors for each [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand, high supply, and concerns about negative feedback [2] - Terminal demand is weak, and the recovery of the real estate and manufacturing industries is uneven [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be weak and volatile, with concerns about negative feedback and potential decline in iron production [3] - Supply is relatively stable, but demand is uncertain due to potential production cuts and weak steel demand [3] Coke - The coke market is weak, with the second price increase rejected and high inventory [4] - Carbon supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the development of steel exports [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile, with high inventory and weak demand [5] - Supply is stable, but demand is limited due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market has rebounded, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Manganese ore inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7] - It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

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Group 1: Report on Central Bank's "Double Cut" and Its Impact on Bond Market 1. Policy Announcement - On the morning of May 7th, at a joint press conference of three ministries, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced 10 new monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 10 - BP cut in policy rates and LPR, and a 25 - BP cut in structural monetary policy tool and personal housing provident fund loan rates [2][8] 2. Whether the "Double Cut" Constitutes Incremental Benefits - The combination of a 10 - BP OMO rate cut and a 50 - BP reserve requirement ratio cut did not significantly exceed market expectations in terms of intensity, but the announcement timing was a bit unexpected. For long - term bonds, the current rate cut does not provide enough space to break through the previous low. For short - term bonds, the "double cut" brings a clearer marginal benefit as short - term interest rates were relatively conservative in April [3][9][12] 3. Curve Evolution Logic - Historically, in the face of major event shocks, the yield curve first shows a bull - flat pattern, with long - term bonds reflecting risk - aversion or easing expectations in advance. After the implementation of policies like rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, short - term interest rates start to rise, driving the curve from bull - flat to bull - steep. The curve in the past month followed this historical logic [4][16] 4. Risk Assessment of Long - Term Interest Rate Adjustment - After the "double cut", major monetary policy actions in the second quarter may be mostly completed. From the perspectives of trading sentiment, cross - asset comparison, and fundamentals, the risk of a significant upward adjustment in long - term interest rates is not high, and they will mainly show a pattern of shock digestion and waiting for a new catalyst [5][18][22] 5. Future Potential Catalysts for Long - Term Interest Rates - Potential conditions for long - term interest rates to continue to decline may come from two aspects: if the fundamental pressure exceeds expectations, further opening up the annual rate - cut space; or if overseas trade negotiations fluctuate, triggering a sharp change in market risk appetite and increasing the demand for risk - aversion [5][26] 6. Medium - Term Focus - In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of trade frictions on the domestic fundamentals, especially the impact on the financing demand of enterprises. The credit demand of export - related industries accounts for about 20%, and the marginal changes in this part of financing demand should be observed [6][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current surge in gold prices has attracted a new generation of young investors in China, who are replacing the older generation's interest in gold investment, seeking to capitalize on perceived financial opportunities [2][7]. - Young investors are increasingly viewing gold as a high-return investment, with discussions on social media highlighting significant profits from gold purchases, indicating a shift in investment beliefs among the younger demographic [3][9]. - The article discusses the historical context of gold as a safe-haven asset, tracing its price movements back to events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have contributed to its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [6][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the demographic of gold consumers has shifted, with the proportion of young people aged 25 to 34 engaging in gold purchases rising from 16% to 59%, indicating a significant trend in gold consumption among younger generations [9]. - It highlights the risks associated with gold investment, particularly for young investors who may be using credit and loans to finance their purchases, which could lead to financial strain if gold prices decline [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the complexities and potential pitfalls of investing in gold, including issues with liquidity and the challenges of selling gold products, which may not yield the expected returns due to high markups and purity concerns [11][12].

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 震荡运行 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望，等待逢高做空机会 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： 震荡 | | | ◆橡胶： 震荡 | | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡走强 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆油脂 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the short to medium term, despite short-term concerns regarding fundamentals and liquidity [3][6] - The report highlights a preference for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, consumer, electronics, and technology [3][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding sectors and companies with significant exposure to the U.S. due to potential impacts from U.S.-China trade disputes [3][6] Group 2 - In April, the Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 13% on April 7, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1997 Asian financial crisis [4][12] - The Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index recorded monthly declines of -3.70%, -4.33%, and -5.70% respectively by the end of April [4][12] - The report notes that the market's performance was weaker than expected, influenced by the escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market is under pressure, with domestic economic data showing improvement but external demand being significantly impacted by trade tensions [5][41] - The report highlights that the domestic economy's performance is closely tied to mainland China's economic conditions, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [41][42] - The report discusses the need for policy measures to boost domestic demand as external pressures increase, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the economy [78][80] Group 4 - The report identifies that sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed relatively well in April, while sectors with high exposure to U.S. exports, such as textiles and machinery, faced significant declines [13][12] - The report notes that the valuation levels of the Hang Seng Index are currently below the five-year average, with a PE ratio of 10.5 as of the end of April [21][22] - The report highlights a significant inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market, with Alibaba and Tencent being major beneficiaries of this trend [21][29]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美高层将举行会谈，EIA 下调美国原油产量 预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-07 宏观策略（黄金） 中美高层将举行会谈 国际金价大涨近 100 美金，受贸易局势和地缘政治风险升温的推 动国内开市后黄金表现强势，关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心， 外交部官宣中美高层将就贸易问题接触，利空黄金。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 欧盟与美国关税谈判收效甚微 综 关税谈判进展波折，关税影响可能会逐步显现，三大股指震荡 偏弱运行。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 五一假期全国出游人次 3.14 亿同比增 6.4% 报 节后第一个交易日 A 股气势如虹，放量上涨。中美贸易缓和与 中国产业升级的主题掩盖了宏观面承压的现状。市场处于下有 底，上有顶的状态中，仍需消化不利影响。 农产品（玉米） 节后首个工作日玉米现货延续上涨态势 期货价格出现小幅回落，现货价格则仍然相对强势。进口拍卖 的担忧增加，在北港基差仍然偏弱、部分贸易商群体仍然谨慎 的情况下，短期或会抑制期货的上涨势头。 能源化工（原油） EIA 下调今年美国产量预期 油价修复性反弹，EIA 下调今年美国原油产量预期。 航运指数（集 ...