中央经济工作会议在分析当前经济形势时指出，"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设 强大国内市场"列为明年重点任务之首。在外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出的情况下， 必须以更强的紧迫感和主动性，更好统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，着力打通经济循环卡点堵 点，推动形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡，加快实现国民经济良性循环。 我国经济拥有超大规模市场和完整产业体系显著优势，这是统筹供给与需求的坚实基础，也是参与全球 合作与竞争的稀缺资源。从需求侧看，中国是超大规模经济体，内需为主导、内部可循环是大国经济的 独特优势。我国有全球最大最有潜力的消费市场，内需已逐步成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。随 着居民收入稳步增长、新型城镇化深入推进、消费结构持续升级，未来扩大内需仍有巨大潜力和空间。 内需不足是当前经济运行面临的主要挑战。拓展内需增长新空间，要坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，从 增收减负、丰富供给、减少限制、优化环境等方面入手激发消费潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制 定实施城乡居民增收计划。把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起来，扩大优质消费品和服务供 给。清理消费领域 ...

□ 本报评论员 经济工作千头万绪，抓住关键，就能做到纲举目张，以重点带动全局。日前召开的江苏省委经济工作会 议，深入学习贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，紧密结合省情实际和发展阶段性特征，系统部署了八项 重点任务，为我省做好明年经济工作明确了主攻方向。 促进城乡区域协调发展，是拓展高质量发展新空间的重要举措。要联动推进长三角一体化发展和长江经 济带发展，深化"1+3"重点功能区建设，做好区域互补、跨江融合、南北联动大文章。同时，必须更好 统筹发展和安全，守牢安全稳定底线。着力稳定房地产市场，稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，深化安全生 产整治，确保社会大局和谐稳定。 凡事有其要，执其要者事成。全省各地各部门要深刻领会省委经济工作会议精神，紧扣八项重点任务， 将其实化细化为抓经济工作的具体举措，以实际行动体现"走在前、做示范"的责任担当。 要有效释放内需潜力，在保障和改善民生中扩大消费需求。当前，经济运行中供需矛盾较为突出，这要 求我们一方面扩大优质商品和服务供给，增强供需适配性；另一方面把民生关切作为扩大内需的着力 点，通过实施城乡居民增收计划、健全社会保障体系、优化公共服务供给，切实提升居民消费能力和意 愿。同时，要切 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the coming year, with consumer finance companies playing a crucial role in promoting consumption potential through financial support [1]. Group 1: Policy Support and Industry Development - The consumer finance industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by macro policies and targeted actions from financial institutions [1]. - Various policies have been introduced throughout the year to bolster consumer finance, including guidance from the financial regulatory authority and the implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans [1][2]. - Consumer finance companies are encouraged to focus on demand-side needs and provide tailored financial services to enhance consumption [1]. Group 2: Targeting Consumer Segments - Consumer finance companies are advised to target underrepresented groups such as young workers, new citizens, and residents in rural areas, while also expanding into service-oriented consumption sectors like education and healthcare [4]. - The industry aims to serve middle and low-income groups effectively, with a focus on innovative product offerings and technology empowerment [2][3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Digital Transformation - Consumer finance companies are investing in technology to enhance service quality and operational efficiency, with significant patent acquisitions supporting their digital transformation [4]. - The industry faces challenges such as uneven risk control capabilities and high customer acquisition costs, prompting a shift towards innovative risk management solutions [5]. - Companies like Ant Group are pioneering AI-driven risk control systems to better serve underbanked populations, demonstrating a shift from traditional data reliance to understanding real consumer needs [5]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Financial Inclusion - Consumer finance companies are actively contributing to social responsibility by providing financial relief measures and supporting poverty alleviation efforts [3]. - The industry is committed to building a healthy credit environment and enhancing financial service accessibility for diverse consumer groups [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant economic developments and policy initiatives in China, projecting a GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a new stage in economic and technological strength during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - The article emphasizes the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which implements a new model of open trade, indicating a shift towards a more open economic environment [3] - It discusses the rise of new consumption patterns, including emotional consumption and the sports economy, which are seen as new drivers for expanding domestic demand [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the total box office revenue for the film industry has surpassed 50 billion yuan, with Chinese films gaining international recognition, exemplified by "Ne Zha" becoming the global box office champion for animated films [4] - It mentions that the total market capitalization of A-shares has exceeded expectations, with IPO financing exceeding 270 billion Hong Kong dollars, positioning China as a leading destination for international capital [4] - The article highlights that China's total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with renewable energy generation capacity reaching approximately 60%, showcasing China's leadership in global green development [4]

牵牢消费"牛鼻子"，激活投资"强引擎" 今年国庆中秋假期，日照海滨国家森林公园新增"东海上人姜子牙"演艺、森林小火车等新业态，荣登山东省国庆中秋假期追景指数热点景区。如何进一步 提升国家级旅游度假区的品牌吸引力？日照山海天旅游度假区党工委书记申淑清说，"将坚持以发展文旅新质生产力为目标，切实贯彻会议部署的各项任 务，推进'文旅体康'融合发展。在推动经济提质增效的同时，也将始终坚守生态底线、夯实民生根基。" 消费和投资，是扩大内需的"双引擎"。"十四五"以来，我省在持续释放消费市场活力的同时，在投资领域同步发力。这五年，我省紧扣扩大内需不松劲， 围绕优化供给结构、提升基础设施、改善公共服务，每年谋划实施15000个省市县三级重点项目，在扩大有效投资上不断取得新成效。今年1—5月，全省 固定资产投资同比增长1.3%。其中，国企投资"压舱石"作用稳，成效显著。1—11月，省属企业完成固定资产投资1650亿元、同比增长20.7%。 ——聚焦省委经济工作会议 12月23日，山东省委经济工作会议在济南举行，会议明确要以更大力度抓好八项重点任务。其中，"更大力度推进全方位扩大内需"被置于首位。接下来， 将如何用好消费与投资 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of digital consumption in China, with total digital consumption reaching 9.37 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for nearly half of total household consumption expenditure [1] - The user base for digital consumption has surpassed 958 million, indicating a broadening demographic reach, including significant participation from the elderly and rural populations [1] Group 1: Digital Consumption Trends - Digital consumption is no longer limited to a niche market; it has become an accelerator for China's vast consumer potential, with 27.2% of users from Generation Z, 12.2% from the elderly, and 26.0% from rural areas [1] - The shopping experience has evolved, with 71.1% of online shoppers engaging in price comparisons, and 60.6% willing to pay a premium for emotional value and personal interests [2] Group 2: Emerging Consumer Segments - Unique products like "La Bu Bu" toys and cultural creative products are gaining popularity among young consumers, indicating a shift towards personalized and culturally resonant consumption [3] - The rise of new consumption scenarios, such as smart products and traditional cultural items sold online, showcases the innovative fusion of AI and culture in driving consumer demand [3] Group 3: Integration of Online and Offline Experiences - The integration of online and offline shopping experiences is breaking traditional consumption barriers, with 6.26 million users engaging with micro-short dramas and 5.69 million using online food delivery services [4] - This seamless blend of digital convenience and physical experiences enhances consumer engagement and effectively taps into latent domestic demand [4] Group 4: Future Directions - To sustain the momentum of digital consumption, there is a need to strengthen digital infrastructure, bridge the urban-rural digital divide, and encourage innovation in supply to meet user demands [4] - A robust regulatory framework is essential to create a safe and trustworthy consumption environment, which will further boost confidence and expand domestic demand [4]

在今年A股市场走强的背景下，私募行业也不断迎来新的管理人。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，截至 2025年12月25日，今年以来新增54家私募证券管理人完成备案登记，较2024年的49家相比增加了5家。 排排网集团旗下融智投资FOF基金经理李春瑜表示，2025年新增私募证券管理人数量同比增长，原因主 要有三：一是A股结构性行情持续向好，权益资产赚钱效应凸显，为私募创业潮的兴起奠定了坚实市场 基础；二是监管部门持续完善私募基金监管框架，在强化合规审查力度的同时，进一步优化行业发展生 态，为私募机构规范展业保驾护航；三是居民财富积累与理财意识同步提升，对多元化资产配置的需求 日益旺盛，从资金端推动新增私募管理人数量走高。 展望2026年，星石投资认为，2026年股市估值修复会出现风格均衡的过程，还需要看到新的驱动，例如 EPS的表现。今年年末，经济增长压力有所增加，政策可能会针对性发力，这可能和今年上半年的情况 类似，可能会出现一些驱动比较强的行业率先进入上行期，量变带来质变，进而带动整个市场回到上行 阶段。当下一些消费行业的基本面其实已经稳住了，如果后续出现新的驱动，消费行业会走的比科技还 要好一些。随着基本面好转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Urban renewal is receiving unprecedented strategic upgrades in 2025, with significant attention from high-level meetings and documents, surpassing the focus on real estate [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Developments - The central government has issued multiple documents emphasizing urban renewal, including the "Opinions on Continuing to Promote Urban Renewal Actions," which outlines a clear timetable and roadmap for the initiative [2][4]. - Urban renewal is increasingly linked to expanding domestic demand, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference, which identifies it as a crucial tool for economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Support and Investment - The central government is providing substantial financial support for urban renewal, with 20 cities selected for funding in 2025, receiving up to 12 billion yuan based on their region [6][7]. - A diversified funding mechanism is essential for urban renewal projects, with an emphasis on leveraging social capital and market mechanisms to enhance investment efficiency [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The urban renewal market in China is projected to exceed 8.6 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year growth, with expectations of reaching a 10 trillion yuan market by 2030 [8].

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-12-25 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 货币政策宽松边际收敛，关注短期的风险 ——中国货币政策系列二十三 宏观事件 12 月 18 日央行四季度例会。会议建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多 种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好 政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。 核心观点 政策目标：价格成为货币政策的重要考量，"经济稳定增长和物价合理回升"。 经济形势：外部角度，随着中美关税冲突进入到一年的暂停期，阶段性的不确定性有 所降低；内部角度，边际上加大"供给侧"的表述，或将驱动 2026 年负 PPI 向上修复。 宏观政策：从"需求不足"转向"供强需弱"，新增"跨周期调节"。货币政策的目标从物价 的"处于合理水平"转向了"合理回升"，价格因素在央行的货币政策中的占比有所上升。 货币政策：政策强调"发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应"，稳定而非下降"社会综合融 资成本"。删去"引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度" ...

多家公司获得了机构的高度关注。其中，汇川技术在年内吸引了1600余家机构前来调研。该公司表示，工业领域是大规模设备更新的重点领域，设备更新的 驱动力包括技术进步和市场需求的变化。 临近传统消费旺季，多地推出促消费务实举措，以满足城乡居民节日需求。据央视财经报道，"十四五"时期，我国社会消费品零售总额从2020年的39.1万亿 元稳步提升至2024年的48.3万亿元，年均增长5.5%；预计今年全年消费品零售总额有望突破50万亿元，同期消费对经济增长的年均贡献率达60%左右。近 期，商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发了《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，要求地方相关部门与金融机构强化协同配 合，推动惠民生与促消费深度融合。此前召开的中央经济工作会议中，中央财办明确将扩大内需列为明年首位重点任务。 在资本市场方面，数据显示，12月19日，涵盖消费、可选消费、旅游、食品饮料等主题的20余只ETF本月以来资金净流入超过22亿元。其中，富国中证旅游 主题ETF单只产品净流入额近14亿元。以旅游为主题的股票型ETF本月以来均获得资金净流入。 万得大消费指数及万得内需升级指数的成份股合计87只，主要分布 ...