Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

对外，美国总统特朗普肆意挥舞关税大棒，与中国持续对峙的同时，还试图用关税这个虚空筹码逼迫其他国家答应美国的条件。对内，美国的一场"内战"打 得相当火热，特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔都到了摊牌的时候了。 先说说特朗普为什么一直要美联储降息？美国政府今年将有9.2万亿债务到期，其中有6万多亿美元债务到期，而美债整体规模已经突破36万亿美元。特朗普 上台一直在贸易、关税政策上折腾，其实一个核心目的就是要引爆危机，迫使美联储降息。如果降息利率下降100个基点，年利息支出就能减少4000亿美 元。不仅缓解债务压力，还能缓解关税冲击，以及为其中期选举服务。 那为啥鲍威尔一直不降息呢？鲍威尔说过，过早降息可能加剧通胀失控风险。甚至可能重演1970年代滞胀危机，导致物价失控与经济长期萎靡。美联储现在 陷入加息即摧毁长端资产，降息则放任通胀甚至滞胀的双杀困局。如果降息了，这经济衰退的锅肯定要扣在美联储头上，还不如躺平不动，见死不救。而特 朗普和鲍威尔这场战斗，说实话谁赢了都没用，只有慢性自杀和暴毙的区别，因为美债与美元都出了问题。 这次特朗普如此气愤，大概率是因为鲍威尔最近的表态。鲍威尔说，美国政府的关税政策极有可能导致美国通胀出 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and below the market expectation of 2.5%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to an increase of 0.2% in the previous month[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.1% and the market expectation of 3.0%[2] - The seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, down from 0.2% in the previous month[2] Key Drivers of Inflation Changes - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and airfare prices, with energy prices dropping by 3.3% year-on-year in March[5] - The impact of tariffs has not yet been fully realized, as prior "import rush" led to increased inventories, keeping prices stable for now[4] - Starting in April, the implementation of high tariffs on imports from China and a 10% tariff on other countries is expected to create supply shortages and cost increases, leading to upward pressure on inflation[3][4] Future Implications - The increase in average effective tariff rates to 22.5% is projected to raise US inflation by approximately 1.7 percentage points due to the significant tariff hikes[8] - Concerns over tariffs are causing market volatility, with significant declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, while gold prices have surged[8] - The Federal Reserve may adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their inflationary impacts[10]

Inflation Data Summary - In March, the U.S. CPI experienced a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth since June 2024[9] - Year-on-year CPI growth significantly dropped to 2.4%, indicating a substantial cooling of inflation[9] - Core CPI also fell to 2.8%, the lowest level since March 2021[9] Energy and Commodity Prices - The year-on-year growth rate for the energy component of CPI fell to -3.3%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Brent crude oil prices averaged $72.7 per barrel in March, declining to $71.5 per barrel in April due to OPEC+ production increases and concerns over U.S. tariffs[12] - Core commodity prices saw a month-on-month decline of -0.1%, with used car, furniture, and clothing prices decreasing[17] Service Sector Insights - Core service inflation year-on-year growth decreased to 3.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[20] - The month-on-month growth rate for core services fell to 0.1%, driven by lower prices in auto insurance, airfare, and entertainment services[20] Market Expectations and Risks - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with projections rising to an average of 3.5 cuts for the year[26] - There is a potential risk of inflation rebounding due to the implementation of tariffs, which could raise inflation by at least 0.6% if a comprehensive 10% tariff is enacted without retaliation[3][29] - Risks include unexpected monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and a potential downturn in the U.S. economy[4][31]

报 告 正 文 CPI环比转负，核心CPI同比录得近四年新低 。 3月美国CPI环比增速转负至-0.1%，为2024年6月以来首次 转负。3月同比增速大幅回落至2.4%，通胀大幅降温。同时，3月核心CPI同比降至2.8%，录得2021年3月 以来新低。 从分项来看，能源和核心服务同比增速回落，是通胀降温的主要动力 。一方面，OPEC+宣布 增产，叠加市场担忧全球需求减少，油价下行，带动能源项同比增速降幅走扩。另一方面，核心服务通胀 延续回落趋势，本月主要受益于汽车保险费、机票的同比增速回落 。 商品通胀环比转负，但随着关税落地，存在回升风险 。 本月家具、二手车和服装价格环比增速下行。不 过，新车环比增速有所反弹，主因消费者在关税实施前进行抢购。根据PIIE测算，若不考虑报复情形， 10%的全面关税或使得通胀年内上升至少0.6%。随着4月特朗普关税政策正式生效，年内商品通胀存在上 行风险 。 能源项同比大幅回落 。3月CPI能源项同比增速录得-3.3%，较上月大幅下行3.1个百分点。其中，汽油项同 比增速降幅较上月收窄至-9.8%，下降6.7个百分点。3月布伦特原油现货均价降至72.7美元/桶，OPEC+宣 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The significant decline in the US CPI data in March 2025 has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June, with an expected annual rate cut of up to 100 basis points. However, geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies may push up inflation, forcing the Fed into a dilemma between rate cuts and inflation control, and even delaying the easing cycle [3][26][27]. - The labor market is showing marginal cooling, with strong employment but weakening wage pressure, which provides policy flexibility for the Fed. Asset trends are complex and differentiated, reflecting the market's game between rate - cut expectations and inflation rebound risks [4]. - Although the overall US inflation is cooling, the inflation structure shows that commodity inflation is deflationary while service inflation is sticky. If tariffs are fully implemented, inflation may rebound [17][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 CPI vs Core CPI - In March 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first negative growth since 2020. The core CPI dropped to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a phased relief of overall inflation pressure [10]. - The decline in CPI is mainly due to the fall in energy prices, while the core CPI still shows certain stickiness, especially in service costs and housing rents. Short - term CPI decline may stimulate rate - cut expectations, but there are still risks of inflation rebound [10]. 3.2 Commodity - type Inflation vs Service - type Inflation - In March 2025, the overall US inflation was moderately cooling, but from a structural perspective, commodity prices were almost flat, with a significant decline in energy prices, while service - type CPI still increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Housing - related items were an important source of core CPI stickiness [17]. - Trump's tariff policy adjustment may cause US commodity inflation to rise again in the coming months, while service - type inflation declines more slowly due to structural factors. The current structure of commodity deflation and service inflation still exists, and inflation may face upward risks [17]. 3.3 Impact of Inflation - The decline in the US CPI data in March has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June. However, if tariffs are fully implemented, it may push up inflation and force the Fed into a dilemma [26][27]. - Geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies increase the risk of inflation rebound. The Fed may need to carefully balance between "fighting inflation" and "preventing recession", and the policy - turning window is narrowing due to external uncertainties [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari indicates that the threshold for FOMC rate cuts remains high, highlighting concerns over tariffs potentially driving U.S. inflation [1] Economic Conditions - Dramatic changes in the economic landscape have been observed as of April 9 [1] - The latest developments may lead to a slight decrease in U.S. inflation [1] - Uncertainty in the economic environment raises the risk of a U.S. recession [1] Employment Market - Numerous companies are reportedly slowing down their hiring activities [1] - Tariffs are expected to impact the U.S. job market negatively while simultaneously increasing inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, emphasizes that hard data does not misinterpret or misunderstand the growth rate and inflation of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - Daly's statement suggests confidence in the reliability of hard economic data in assessing the U.S. economic situation [1] - The focus on hard data indicates a potential shift away from reliance on softer indicators, which may lead to more informed monetary policy decisions [1] - The assertion may influence market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve actions, particularly in relation to interest rates and inflation management [1]

Core Insights - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased significantly, with a rise of 230 yuan/ton effective from April 2, leading to 92 and 95 octane gasoline prices reaching approximately 7.45 yuan/liter and 7.95 yuan/liter respectively [1][3] - The next fuel price adjustment is scheduled for April 17, marking the eighth adjustment of the year, with current trends indicating a potential increase of 150 yuan/ton based on the average crude oil price [3][5] - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have been dramatic, with a notable drop of over 12.5% in just two days, influenced by various economic factors including increased tariffs and rising U.S. oil inventories [5][7] Price Adjustments - The recent price hike in domestic fuel is attributed to a 2.91% change in domestic crude oil prices, with the first working day of the new pricing cycle reflecting a significant increase [3] - The anticipated price adjustment on April 17 could see a reversal in trends, with projections suggesting a decrease of nearly 200 yuan/ton due to the recent drop in international oil prices [5][7] Market Dynamics - The decline in oil prices is driven by multiple factors, including unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, rising crude oil inventories, and OPEC+ plans to increase production capacity significantly [5][7] - Market sentiment remains pessimistic, with fears of a global economic slowdown and potential further declines in oil prices, impacting future domestic fuel pricing strategies [7] Regional Price Overview - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China show slight variations, with 92 octane gasoline priced around 7.45 to 7.63 yuan/liter and 95 octane gasoline ranging from 7.90 to 8.15 yuan/liter [8]