Group 1 - The anticipated inflation in the U.S. has not materialized despite the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, indicating that retailers have not significantly raised prices [1][3] - U.S. importers are maintaining high profit margins, with average gross margins reported at 75% or higher, allowing them to absorb the 30% tariffs without passing costs onto consumers [1][6] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces criticism for not lowering interest rates, as the expected inflation from the tariff war has not occurred, challenging traditional economic theories [3][6] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff war has not led to the expected inflation, which raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy measures such as interest rate hikes [4][6] - The concept of inflation as a result of currency devaluation is highlighted, suggesting that the banking sector's interests may conflict with broader economic stability [6] - The potential for Powell's removal from his position is discussed, as Trump's economic strategies gain traction and are perceived as more effective [6][8] Group 3 - The article discusses the influence of "deep state" forces within the U.S. government and their impact on various sectors, including the potential for significant personnel changes in agencies like the State Department [7][8] - The article suggests that the U.S. has been providing advanced technology to Israel, raising concerns about the implications for U.S. military readiness and technological superiority [8][11] - The role of think tanks, such as the "America First Policy Institute," in shaping Trump's policies is emphasized, indicating a coordinated effort to counteract deep state influences [13]

展望未来，特朗普在与贸易伙伴的关税谈判中，多多少少会有 一些收获，但收获不会太多，实质性的收获会更少，有一些关 税协议，可能会用文字游戏的方式让美国赚面子。 作者：王义伟 封图：视觉中国 7月9日是美国总统特朗普自己划定的关税战的"大限"之日。不出外界所料，在这个日期到来之 前，7月7日开始，特朗普就以给相关国家领导人发信通知的方式，把与各国达成关税协议的期限 推迟到8月1日。 这是他第二次推迟期限，第一次是今年4月份。4月2日，特朗普向全世界开战，宣布对所有国家和 地区出口到美国的商品征收 10% 的最低关税，对贸易逆差较大的经济体加征更高关税，4月5日起 执行。4月10日 特朗普宣布关税战暂停90天。 特朗普的再一次后退，验证了美国媒体给他取的外号TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out特朗普 总是临阵退缩）。 那么， 在主动发起关税战之后，特朗普为何一推再推，将达成关税协议的期限不断向后延伸呢？ 笔者分析，原因主要有以下几个方面： 第一，棍棒打不死市场经济。 国际贸易虽然受经济、文化、地缘政治等诸多因素的影响，但总体而言，是靠市场这只看不见的手 推动的，且在长时间的运行中形成了内在的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the financial landscape in the U.S. is being reshaped by Trump's policies, leading to increased risk premiums for financial assets due to policy ambiguity and excessive fiscal consumption [1][2] - Trump's trade war aims to strategically contain China and generate revenue to address U.S. debt issues, but even a 20% tariff could only yield an additional $185.2 billion, insufficient to cover interest payments on the debt [1] - The bank's investment strategy has been adjusted to maintain a neutral allocation to equities, with expectations of performance divergence across sectors and regions, favoring the U.S. technology sector and service industries over commodity-focused sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The market in Q3 2025 is expected to be dominated by three themes: easing of tariff tensions, divergence in stock performance, and fiscal pressures that are unfavorable for government bonds and the dollar but beneficial for gold [2] - The unexpected easing of U.S.-China tensions is driven by pragmatic considerations, as the high tariffs effectively act as a trade embargo harming both parties [2] - The bank anticipates that while practical approaches may reduce tariff tensions, stock performance will significantly diverge, with technology and service sectors outperforming the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of trade tensions under Trump's administration, highlighting the challenges faced by the U.S. in maintaining its global leadership as countries like Brazil and Japan respond assertively to new tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - Trump's new tariffs have reignited global trade conflicts, with significant backlash from countries such as Brazil and Japan [1][3]. - The "America First" policy has led to strained relations with traditional allies, as countries reassess their economic ties with the U.S. [3][4]. - The imposition of tariffs results in increased costs for imported goods, ultimately affecting consumers and businesses [3]. Group 2: Brazil's Response - Brazil has emerged as a key player, surpassing the U.S. to become China's largest soybean supplier, reflecting its discontent with U.S. hegemony [3][4]. - In response to U.S. tariffs, Brazil enacted the "Commercial Reciprocity Law," imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. goods and seeking new trade partnerships [12][17]. - Brazil's government highlighted a $410 billion trade surplus with the U.S. over the past 15 years, countering Trump's claims of trade deficits [10][12]. Group 3: Japan's Reaction - Japan's automotive industry faces severe impacts from a 25% tariff on imports, prompting strong criticism from Prime Minister Kishida [7][14]. - Japan's government has adopted a firmer stance against U.S. policies, emphasizing the need to protect national interests [14][17]. - The ongoing tariff disputes have led Japan to reconsider its economic relationship with the U.S., aligning more closely with other global partners [4][19]. Group 4: Global Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. is losing its dominant position as more countries challenge unilateral trade practices [4][17]. - The responses from Brazil and Japan signal a broader trend of nations seeking equitable trade relationships, moving away from dependency on the U.S. [4][19]. - The future of U.S. global leadership is uncertain, hinging on its ability to navigate increasing international resistance to its trade policies [19].

Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict between the US and China, ignited by tariffs, has escalated into a significant global economic reshuffle, affecting not only the two nations but also other major economies like Japan, the EU, and India [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Conflict Dynamics - The Trump administration initiated a new tariff policy in April 2025, aiming to pressure countries, particularly China, into negotiations to facilitate the return of manufacturing jobs to the US [1][2]. - Contrary to expectations, China adopted a strong stance against US pressure, reflecting a decrease in its reliance on foreign markets and a successful diversification strategy [1][8]. - By July 2025, as the 90-day grace period ended, global markets remained surprisingly calm, with Japan and the EU openly opposing the US tariffs, indicating a shift in alliances [2][4]. Group 2: International Reactions - Japan's Prime Minister publicly demanded the cancellation of new tariffs, highlighting a growing rift between the US and its traditional allies [2][4]. - The EU responded with a $95 billion tariff list, demonstrating a commitment to retaliate against US policies, further complicating the negotiation landscape [6][14]. - India's refusal to purchase US agricultural products signifies a broader trend of countries distancing themselves from US economic influence [2][4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The US agricultural sector faced significant challenges as China halted purchases of American farm products, leading to unsold inventory and rising unemployment among farmers [4][12]. - The potential for China's export control on rare earth materials poses a significant threat to US technology and military sectors, which rely heavily on these resources [10][12]. - The overall decline in export volumes from various countries to the US indicates a growing wariness of American economic dominance and a shift towards a more multipolar global economy [6][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade war has led to a complex international landscape where unilateral actions by the US may no longer yield the expected results, as countries seek to protect their own interests [14][16]. - The future of the trade conflict remains uncertain, with potential for either continued resistance against US policies or new rounds of negotiations, reflecting the unpredictable nature of international relations [17][19].

Report Title - The report is titled "Caida Futures | Precious Metals Weekly Report 2025-07-14" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver prices oscillated higher, with gold reaching 778 yuan per gram and silver hitting 9,232 yuan per kilogram, a record high [3] - The June Fed monetary policy minutes showed internal disagreements on inflation and rate cuts, and it's unclear when a rate cut will occur [4] - A Trump administration official hinted that Fed Chair Powell might "consider resigning." If he leaves and a more Trump - compliant chair takes over, there could be aggressive rate cuts, stimulating Bitcoin and gold prices [6][7] - On July 12, Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1. This will increase US inflation and make rate - cut conditions less favorable, but it will support gold prices, which will maintain an oscillating upward trend [9] - Silver has a stronger upward momentum, hitting a new high due to its strong industrial attributes and increasing demand from the photovoltaic, mobile phone, and new - energy vehicle industries. In the short term, silver price growth may outpace gold [9] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy - The June Fed monetary policy minutes reflected differences among officials on the impact of US tariff policies on inflation, leading to disagreements on the rate outlook [4] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller thought a rate cut might be considered later this month as tariff - induced inflation is temporary, but more officials want more data and time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] Powell's Potential Resignation - A Trump administration official suggested Powell might "consider resigning" due to the pressure of the Fed headquarters renovation project. If he leaves, a more Trump - friendly chair could lead to aggressive rate cuts, benefiting Bitcoin and gold [6][7] Trump's Tariff Threat - On July 12, Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports starting August 1. The EU said it would retaliate if necessary [9] - Trump's tariff policy will increase US living costs and inflation, and his demand for rate cuts while waging a tariff war creates a contradiction [9] - The uncertainty of the tariff war and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut will support gold prices, which will oscillate upward. Silver has a stronger upward trend [9] Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices showed a rebound after a dip, with moving averages forming a golden cross again. The long - term upward channel provided support, and the price will maintain an oscillating upward trend [9] - Silver hit a new high due to strong industrial demand. The gold - silver ratio has decreased from 1:94 at the end of May to 1:84, and in the short term, silver price growth may be higher than that of gold [9]

7月9日是美国总统特朗普自己划定的关税战的"大限"之日。不出外界所料，在这个日期到来之前，7月7 日开始，特朗普就以给相关国家领导人发信通知的方式，把与各国达成关税协议的期限推迟到8月1日。 这是他第二次推迟期限，第一次是今年4月份。4月2日，特朗普向全世界开战，宣布对所有国家和地区 出口到美国的商品征收 10% 的最低关税，对贸易逆差较大的经济体加征更高关税，4月5日起执行。4月 10日 特朗普宣布关税战暂停90天。 特朗普的再一次后退，验证了美国媒体给他取的外号TACO（Trump Always Chickens Out特朗普总是临 阵退缩）。 那么，在主动发起关税战之后，特朗普为何一推再推，将达成关税协议的期限不断向后延伸呢？ 笔者分析，原因主要有以下几个方面： 第一，棍棒打不死市场经济。 国际贸易虽然受经济、文化、地缘政治等诸多因素的影响，但总体而言，是靠市场这只看不见的手推动 的，且在长时间的运行中形成了内在的运行轨迹和底层逻辑。 2024年GDP的数据显示，全球经济前三大巨头分别是美国（29万亿美元）、欧盟（19.4万亿美元）、中 国（18.94万亿美元）。 2024年的贸易数据显示，美国贸易逆差 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 30% tariff on all products from the EU starting August 1, following previous tariffs of 25% on cars and 50% on steel products [1][3] - The EU has delayed its retaliatory measures against the U.S., with plans to consider responses in early August, indicating a passive stance in the face of U.S. aggression [3][5] - The EU's leadership, particularly Ursula von der Leyen, has shown a tendency to appease the U.S., even retracting plans for a digital tax on American tech companies [3][5][7] Group 2 - The EU, despite having significant economic power with member states like Germany and France, is perceived to be in a submissive position regarding U.S. tariffs [7] - The EU's response to U.S. pressure has been described as weak, with a lack of concrete actions to counter the tariffs imposed by the U.S. [5][7] - There is speculation that von der Leyen may be acting in alignment with U.S. interests rather than those of the EU, raising concerns about her leadership [9][10]

Group 1 - As of July 11, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai silver futures closed at 9040 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase in open interest by 152,238 contracts [1] - During the week of July 7-11, the Shanghai silver futures opened at 8919 yuan/kg, reached a high of 9118 yuan/kg, and a low of 8840 yuan/kg, resulting in a weekly change of 1.38% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a dovish stance, with Waller suggesting a potential rate cut in July and Daly emphasizing that tariffs may not impact inflation as much as expected, indicating room for about two rate cuts this year [2] - On July 9, the trading volume for silver futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 50,874 contracts, a decrease of 9,779 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - On July 10, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease of 23,751 kg in silver warehouse receipts, with a total reduction of 43,634 kg over the past week, representing a decline of 3.25% [2] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Futures believes that after a significant rebound, silver prices will revert to fundamentals under commodity attributes, with global silver supply expected to increase and demand to decrease, narrowing the supply-demand gap to a four-year low [3] - Jinyuan Futures notes that despite Trump's tariffs boosting demand for safe-haven assets, a strong US dollar limits gold price increases, while high copper tariffs are positively impacting silver prices [3] - The current market's reduced sensitivity to tariffs and rising risk assets have diminished gold's attractiveness, while silver's strong performance is attributed to its low price and demand for a rebound [3]

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]